5/26 vs Cleveland

[jung]

The walk to Pedey was the real backbreaker for the Guardians. That pitch was not even borderline and that was the walk that opened the floodgates. But I still think Iggy's walk and the one Gomes took were legit. Gomes has always had a good eye but Iggy really worked hard to get his walk and that has not been a strong suit for him in his fledgling career.

 

Home plate ump Chris Gucchioni has been a full time ML ump since 2009 but had been on the ML ump staff since 2000. His K9 and BB/9 put him pretty close to average amongst ML umps but he has a reputation for squeezing pitchers. As many times as the hitters complained today you would think it is the other way around. At the end of the day, I think we would say that on balance his reputation for squeezing pitchers is justified and the hitters had very little if anything to complain about.

[Dojji]

Jurrjens for example...that should be a memorable enough example for you. There have been other junkers that have had similar success since Jurrjens but NOBODY should be able to forget that one!

 

I haven't watched Jair Jurrjens pitch in awhile, but unless he's lost a lot of velo in the last few years, that is not a junkballer. Before he started having injury problems he was a borderline 2-3 when healthy.

[jung]

I haven't watched Jair Jurrjens pitch in awhile, but unless he's lost a lot of velo in the last few years, that is not a junkballer. Before he started having injury problems he was a borderline 2-3 when healthy.

 

His velo on the FB when he faced us had fallen below 90 and has barely crawled back over 90 even now. It had been falling steadily since his injury problems began. At the point when he faced us he was still trying to figure out what he could throw to get outs against ML lineups. Good God people this information is not even hard to find.

 

and

 

If you did not see that game, I'm not responsible for that either. I can assure that for anybody that did, that game is burned into his memory banks, probably forever!

[italstallianion]

Now Brett Myers in my opinion would be considered a junk baller. Or Jamie Moyer for the last decade.

[Palodios]

9th inning, 4 run walk-off win against a team with a very solid bullpen? Hellz yes. Wish I watched this one.

[a700hitter]

His velo on the FB when he faced us had fallen below 90 and has barely crawled back over 90 even now. It had been falling steadily since his injury problems began. At the point when he faced us he was still trying to figure out what he could throw to get outs against ML lineups. Good God people this information is not even hard to find.

 

and

 

If you did not see that game, I'm not responsible for that either. I can assure that for anybody that did, that game is burned into his memory banks, probably forever!

I remember that game. As Eck would say, he was Jurjens was serving up some soft serve that game.

[jung]

This one was a terrific game Pal but to be honest they have almost all been terrific games, win or lose so far this year. This one had twists and turns, plots.....humor...the whole nine yards.

 

7th inning had an argument over third out play at 2nd base cut short by "God Bless America" with everybody standing around trying to figure out how they could keep arguing and do the flag justice at the same time....funny as hell.

 

On top of all that, just about the whole lineup had a moment to remember to take from this one. Great theater and a great win. Really win or lose almost all the games this year have been exciting and interesting to watch. They have managed to pack more fun into a month and a few days than they had in the whole time since August 2011. I really think that the opportunity afforded the younger guys by circumstances and the acceptance of those young guys by the vets has been as responsible for that as anything.

[Thunder]

9th inning, 4 run walk-off win against a team with a very solid bullpen? Hellz yes. Wish I watched this one.

 

If it was today, could have been the Memorial Day Miracle.:dunno:

[User Name]

Jurjjens pitched that game against the Sox in June of last year. How does that have any bearing on an analysis of the current edition of the team?

 

Also, i remember watching that game, and he had spot-on command that night, and a pretty generous umpire. That's a recipe for success no matter how much of a "junkballer" you are.

[User Name]

And for the record, that monster season Jurjjens had (2011) after first coming back from injury, was posted with a FB velocity that averaged under 90 MPH.

[Thunder]

Here is what the Sox are wearing today:

http://shop.neweracap.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/20520838

 

Couldn't get the image to show.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The walk to Pedey was the real backbreaker for the Guardians. That pitch was not even borderline and that was the walk that opened the floodgates. But I still think Iggy's walk and the one Gomes took were legit. Gomes has always had a good eye but Iggy really worked hard to get his walk and that has not been a strong suit for him in his fledgling career.

 

Home plate ump Chris Gucchioni has been a full time ML ump since 2009 but had been on the ML ump staff since 2000. His K9 and BB/9 put him pretty close to average amongst ML umps but he has a reputation for squeezing pitchers. As many times as the hitters complained today you would think it is the other way around. At the end of the day, I think we would say that on balance his reputation for squeezing pitchers is justified and the hitters had very little if anything to complain about.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation_io.php-pitchSel=453198&game=gid_2013_05_26_clemlb_bosmlb_1&batterX=66&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3.gif

 

Pitch 6 to Pedey was as borderline as they come. Not sure what you're seeing? Perez didn't get squeezed as much as you think.

[User Name]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/location.php?pitchSel=467094&game=gid_2013_05_26_clemlb_bosmlb_1/&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

 

Here is Doubront's strike zone plot from yesterday. jung kept going on and on about how hitters "really helped him out" yesterday, yet the plot clearly shows hitters barely swinging at pitches out of the zone.

[SoxSport]

Too bad Buchholz has to miss a turn. He could have kept the momentum. Now they have to depend on somebody who is a questionmark.

[Standing Room]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/location.php?pitchSel=467094&game=gid_2013_05_26_clemlb_bosmlb_1/&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

 

Here is Doubront's strike zone plot from yesterday. jung kept going on and on about how hitters "really helped him out" yesterday, yet the plot clearly shows hitters barely swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

Looks like they're seeing ghosts again.

[Thunder]

Perez was just put on the DL with a shoulder problem. Looked more like an elbow injury when it happened.

[jung]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation_io.php-pitchSel=453198&game=gid_2013_05_26_clemlb_bosmlb_1&batterX=66&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3.gif

 

Pitch 6 to Pedey was as borderline as they come. Not sure what you're seeing? Perez didn't get squeezed as much as you think.

 

I was referring to the NESN pitch tracker which is all we had at the time. I am sure you will recall that the NESN tracker had that pitch pretty much in the zone with the edge of the tracker indicator just sitting on the border and the rest of the ball inside the strike zone. Those of us used to seeing how the NESN tracker records pitches would consider that pretty much an unquestionable strike. In any event, the ump called it a ball and both pitchfx and the NESN tracker called it a strike with pitchfx showing it as much more borderline than the NESN tracker.

[jung]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/location.php?pitchSel=467094&game=gid_2013_05_26_clemlb_bosmlb_1/&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

 

Here is Doubront's strike zone plot from yesterday. jung kept going on and on about how hitters "really helped him out" yesterday, yet the plot clearly shows hitters barely swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

I am no longer amazed at the ability of some posters to be selective in the way they characterize other posters comments. What some people will do just to make a point.

 

I also commented that the Guardians also helped Felix in the number of instances when they were not taking advantage of pitches right in the heart of the zone, mostly either beating them into the ground but also fouling them off, missing them entirely or taking them for called strikes.

 

Swinging at junk is only half the help Cleveland's hitters have given Felix today. The other half is all the pitches up and pretty much middle of the plate that they have just flat missed. Felix has been up in the zone all day long and Cleveland's hitters have little to show for it.

[jung]

Jurjjens pitched that game against the Sox in June of last year. How does that have any bearing on an analysis of the current edition of the team?

 

Also, i remember watching that game, and he had spot-on command that night, and a pretty generous umpire. That's a recipe for success no matter how much of a "junkballer" you are.

 

The discussion included 2012 and 2013 because I had suggested that the number of instances that a pitcher could come in here with little more than an ability to hit the lower outside quadrant of the strike zone and beat us with that had most notably increased In 2012. That appears to be the case this year as well. I hardly have to do a post count to suggest that many posters here made that same or similar comment regarding the early results for 2013. It is still early in 2013 and it is possible that posters are commenting mainly based on the 2012 results. However it would seem clear that as a group the board thinks the trend established in 2012 remains to this day.

 

Standing Room asked for an example and I chose the Jurrjens game from last year because to me it was the most memorable example. As for Jurrjens himself, while 2011 was his best year, he has gone through more change in pitch type through 2012 and early 2013 than at any other time in his career.

 

Historically Jurrjens has thrown FB's at a rate of about 40% of total pitches. That is fully 19% lower than the historical average of 59% for all pitchers including junkers from 2007 till today. His average speed for those FB's was 89.92 mph that day, which is about what his average FB was doing all of the 2012 season. Historically he has thrown sinkers and sliders, about 35% of the time. That number fell to about 20% last year and has fallen to 0% in 2013. Jurrjens has only faced 22 batters so far in 2013 and has thrown either that doing nothing, going nowhere FB or the Change to all of them for 100% of his pitches this year. Frankly I think Jurrjens is on his way out of baseball but clearly his most notable performance of the last two seasons was that June 2012 performance against the Red Sox, going 8 innings and flummoxing the Sox with seemingly little that we normally recognize for a dominant pitching performance.

 

On that day while the historical average difference for all pitchers for all pitches is about 14.5 mph (top to bottom), Jurrjens was only able to manage a 6.48 mph difference in velocity between 90 of the 103 pitches he threw that day in June and a 10.92 mph difference between all 103 pitches he threw that day. Clearly then, he did not exhibit a greater difference in velocity than other pitchers had shown or now show the Sox. While his change in velo pitch to pitch was considerably lower than average, his movement on that day was about average for all pitchers and all pitches. So, while throwing such a low percentage of FB's at such a low average velocity establishes him as a junker neither the velo or the movement on his pitches that day would suggest those were telling features of his performance.

 

What was telling was the percentage of outs and called strikes in the middle to low and outside quadrant of the strike zone on that day. In other words, all Jurrjens did was find the low outside quadrant with extreme regularity. That was it. That was the only notable aspect of his performance that day. The Sox either ignored pitches in that quadrant that were called strikes or swing at them, beating them into the ground thus recording outs at an alarming rate. They also recorded swinging strikes in that zone but Jurrjens only recorded 5 wiffs (or complete swings and misses) for the entire day's 103 pitch effort. So I hardly think swings and misses in any of the four quadrants were important to his effort that day.

 

To me, of the exceptional performances by unexceptional pitchers against the Sox during the last two seasons, that one by Jurrjens was the most remarkable of them and that is why I used it.

 

Now to be frank, I would not be surprised if the degree to which the slugger rich AL East has been flummoxed by fairly unspectacular pitching performances is on the rise. Think about the 2012 post season for example. The performance by hitters representing AL East participants was most unspectacular with the O's and Yankee pitchers doing little more in their series than Jurrjens did to the Sox that day in June. The Yankees were the last team left standing in that death march they endured and put the country through against the O's and then went on to record an equally unspectacular hitting standard in the AL Championship series against the Tigers. So I would not be completely surprised if this turned out to be an AL East thing more than it is a Red Sox thing. However, as I said earlier, I think one of the most common comments on our board or in our little closed community is the number of instances starting in 2012 and continuing this year when we have been surprised by the effectiveness of generally unspectacular pitchers pitching against the Red Sox. These are in the main Junkers doing little more than Jurrjens did that day in June 2012.

[User Name]

I am no longer amazed at the ability of some posters to be selective in the way they characterize other posters comments. What some people will do just to make a point.

 

I also commented that the Guardians also helped Felix in the number of instances when they were not taking advantage of pitches right in the heart of the zone, mostly either beating them into the ground but also fouling them off, missing them entirely or taking them for called strikes.

 

 

The point is that you keep making incorrect assumptions. That's not the point you initially made. You refused to give Felix credit because hitters were helping him out. You were wrong. That's that.

[User Name]

The discussion included 2012 and 2013 because I had suggested that the number of instances that a pitcher could come in here with little more than an ability to hit the lower outside quadrant of the strike zone and beat us with that had most notably increased In 2012. That appears to be the case this year as well. I hardly have to do a post count to suggest that many posters here made that same or similar comment regarding the early results for 2013. It is still early in 2013 and it is possible that posters are commenting mainly based on the 2012 results. However it would seem clear that as a group the board thinks the trend established in 2012 remains to this day.

 

Standing Room asked for an example and I chose the Jurrjens game from last year because to me it was the most memorable example. As for Jurrjens himself, while 2011 was his best year, he has gone through more change in pitch type through 2012 and early 2013 than at any other time in his career.

 

Historically Jurrjens has thrown FB's at a rate of about 40% of total pitches. That is fully 19% lower than the historical average of 59% for all pitchers including junkers from 2007 till today. His average speed for those FB's was 89.92 mph that day, which is about what his average FB was doing all of the 2012 season. Historically he has thrown sinkers and sliders, about 35% of the time. That number fell to about 20% last year and has fallen to 0% in 2013. Jurrjens has only faced 22 batters so far in 2013 and has thrown either that doing nothing, going nowhere FB or the Change to all of them for 100% of his pitches this year. Frankly I think Jurrjens is on his way out of baseball but clearly his most notable performance of the last two seasons was that June 2012 performance against the Red Sox, going 8 innings and flummoxing the Sox with seemingly little that we normally recognize for a dominant pitching performance.

 

On that day while the historical average difference for all pitchers for all pitches is about 14.5 mph (top to bottom), Jurrjens was only able to manage a 6.48 mph difference in velocity between 90 of the 103 pitches he threw that day in June and a 10.92 mph difference between all 103 pitches he threw that day. Clearly then, he did not exhibit a greater difference in velocity than other pitchers had shown or now show the Sox. While his change in velo pitch to pitch was considerably lower than average, his movement on that day was about average for all pitchers and all pitches. So, while throwing such a low percentage of FB's at such a low average velocity establishes him as a junker neither the velo or the movement on his pitches that day would suggest those were telling features of his performance.

 

What was telling was the percentage of outs and called strikes in the middle to low and outside quadrant of the strike zone on that day. In other words, all Jurrjens did was find the low outside quadrant with extreme regularity. That was it. That was the only notable aspect of his performance that day. The Sox either ignored pitches in that quadrant that were called strikes or swing at them, beating them into the ground thus recording outs at an alarming rate. They also recorded swinging strikes in that zone but Jurrjens only recorded 5 wiffs (or complete swings and misses) for the entire day's 103 pitch effort. So I hardly think swings and misses in any of the four quadrants were important to his effort that day.

 

To me, of the exceptional performances by unexceptional pitchers against the Sox during the last two seasons, that one by Jurrjens was the most remarkable of them and that is why I used it.

 

Now to be frank, I would not be surprised if the degree to which the slugger rich AL East has been flummoxed by fairly unspectacular pitching performances is on the rise. Think about the 2012 post season for example. The performance by hitters representing AL East participants was most unspectacular with the O's and Yankee pitchers doing little more in their series than Jurrjens did to the Sox that day in June. The Yankees were the last team left standing in that death march they endured and put the country through against the O's and then went on to record an equally unspectacular hitting standard in the AL Championship series against the Tigers. So I would not be completely surprised if this turned out to be an AL East thing more than it is a Red Sox thing. However, as I said earlier, I think one of the most common comments on our board or in our little closed community is the number of instances starting in 2012 and continuing this year when we have been surprised by the effectiveness of generally unspectacular pitchers pitching against the Red Sox. These are in the main Junkers doing little more than Jurrjens did that day in June 2012.

 

Too many scattered points, so i'll reply to the one that interests me. On Jurjjens:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/numlocation.php?pitchSel=457453&game=gid_2012_06_22_atlmlb_bosmlb_1/&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

 

Plot shows he was hitting the entire strike zone consistently. Where are you coming up with this?

[Standing Room]

The discussion included 2012 and 2013 because I had suggested that the number of instances that a pitcher could come in here with little more than an ability to hit the lower outside quadrant of the strike zone and beat us with that had most notably increased In 2012. That appears to be the case this year as well. I hardly have to do a post count to suggest that many posters here made that same or similar comment regarding the early results for 2013. It is still early in 2013 and it is possible that posters are commenting mainly based on the 2012 results. However it would seem clear that as a group the board thinks the trend established in 2012 remains to this day.

 

Standing Room asked for an example and I chose the Jurrjens game from last year because to me it was the most memorable example. As for Jurrjens himself, while 2011 was his best year, he has gone through more change in pitch type through 2012 and early 2013 than at any other time in his career.

 

Historically Jurrjens has thrown FB's at a rate of about 40% of total pitches. That is fully 19% lower than the historical average of 59% for all pitchers including junkers from 2007 till today. His average speed for those FB's was 89.92 mph that day, which is about what his average FB was doing all of the 2012 season. Historically he has thrown sinkers and sliders, about 35% of the time. That number fell to about 20% last year and has fallen to 0% in 2013. Jurrjens has only faced 22 batters so far in 2013 and has thrown either that doing nothing, going nowhere FB or the Change to all of them for 100% of his pitches this year. Frankly I think Jurrjens is on his way out of baseball but clearly his most notable performance of the last two seasons was that June 2012 performance against the Red Sox, going 8 innings and flummoxing the Sox with seemingly little that we normally recognize for a dominant pitching performance.

 

On that day while the historical average difference for all pitchers for all pitches is about 14.5 mph (top to bottom), Jurrjens was only able to manage a 6.48 mph difference in velocity between 90 of the 103 pitches he threw that day in June and a 10.92 mph difference between all 103 pitches he threw that day. Clearly then, he did not exhibit a greater difference in velocity than other pitchers had shown or now show the Sox. While his change in velo pitch to pitch was considerably lower than average, his movement on that day was about average for all pitchers and all pitches. So, while throwing such a low percentage of FB's at such a low average velocity establishes him as a junker neither the velo or the movement on his pitches that day would suggest those were telling features of his performance.

 

What was telling was the percentage of outs and called strikes in the middle to low and outside quadrant of the strike zone on that day. In other words, all Jurrjens did was find the low outside quadrant with extreme regularity. That was it. That was the only notable aspect of his performance that day. The Sox either ignored pitches in that quadrant that were called strikes or swing at them, beating them into the ground thus recording outs at an alarming rate. They also recorded swinging strikes in that zone but Jurrjens only recorded 5 wiffs (or complete swings and misses) for the entire day's 103 pitch effort. So I hardly think swings and misses in any of the four quadrants were important to his effort that day.

 

To me, of the exceptional performances by unexceptional pitchers against the Sox during the last two seasons, that one by Jurrjens was the most remarkable of them and that is why I used it.

 

Now to be frank, I would not be surprised if the degree to which the slugger rich AL East has been flummoxed by fairly unspectacular pitching performances is on the rise. Think about the 2012 post season for example. The performance by hitters representing AL East participants was most unspectacular with the O's and Yankee pitchers doing little more in their series than Jurrjens did to the Sox that day in June. The Yankees were the last team left standing in that death march they endured and put the country through against the O's and then went on to record an equally unspectacular hitting standard in the AL Championship series against the Tigers. So I would not be completely surprised if this turned out to be an AL East thing more than it is a Red Sox thing. However, as I said earlier, I think one of the most common comments on our board or in our little closed community is the number of instances starting in 2012 and continuing this year when we have been surprised by the effectiveness of generally unspectacular pitchers pitching against the Red Sox. These are in the main Junkers doing little more than Jurrjens did that day in June 2012.

 

Just because you ramble on for longer doesn't make your strange "observations" any more true. I asked if you had any evidence that the REd Sox have struggled against junkballers the last two seasons, and it's become pretty clear now that you don't. One game is not a telling sample size.

[User Name]

Over the past two seasons, the Red Sox have hit "finesse" pitchers (as defined by BB-REF) almost a hundred OPS points higher than "power" pitchers (.797 to .707 OPS). While the stat uses strikeouts and baseballs to help index pitcher "type", there is a significant correlation between fastball velocity and K/BB ratio.

 

In other words, the stats show two things: The Sox generally kill junkballers, and jung is wrong.

[Standing Room]

Over the past two seasons, the Red Sox have hit "finesse" pitchers (as defined by BB-REF) almost a hundred OPS points higher than "power" pitchers (.797 to .707 OPS). While the stat uses strikeouts and baseballs to help index pitcher "type", there is a significant correlation between fastball velocity and K/BB ratio.

 

In other words, the stats show two things: The Sox generally kill junkballers.

 

Thank you! How much you want to bet jung will continue to argue otherwise?

[jung]

Look at the number of outs recorded middle to lower outside quadrant in the Jurrjens plot and combine it with called strikes and wiffs.

 

You know a team only gets 27 outs in a baseball game. How many outs do you think an opposing pitcher needs to get a particular way for that to make a significant contribution? We often think of an 8 or 9 K performance as significant as a strike out performance. I don't that is far wrong. That is 33% of the total outs allowed a team in a game. So what are we going to do now...establish different standards to make a point. Must a team or a player need do something 100% of the time to be worthy of comment on this board? That would not surprise me either. In fact almost nothing I read here from certain posters surprises me any longer. This is a discussion board folks, not life. If you are going to treat it like life I have a suggestion for you....GET A LIFE!

[User Name]

You do know that's the plot for the whole game, so those are outs for lefties AND righties?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Over the past two seasons, the Red Sox have hit "finesse" pitchers (as defined by BB-REF) almost a hundred OPS points higher than "power" pitchers (.797 to .707 OPS). While the stat uses strikeouts and baseballs to help index pitcher "type", there is a significant correlation between fastball velocity and K/BB ratio.

 

In other words, the stats show two things: The Sox generally kill junkballers, and jung is wrong.

 

This is surprising to me.

 

I remember getting dominated by Jurrjens, Freddy Garcia, Dempster, Vargas, and tons of ther soft throwers over the past couple of years.

[Standing Room]

This is surprising to me.

 

I remember getting dominated by Jurrjens, Freddy Garcia, Dempster, Vargas, and tons of ther soft throwers over the past couple of years.

 

That's because it's much more memorable when the Red Sox don't hit a junkballer than it is when the Sox don't hit a power pitcher. When the Sox don't hit a power pitcher, no one thinks anything of it because that's what they expected. That's the beautiful thing about statistics, they don't changed based on perception.

[jung]

You do know that's the plot for the whole game, so those are outs for lefties AND righties?

Yes I do......Did I make any reference to handedness of the batter in conjunction with the location comments middle to low and outside ? I made every comment along the lines of the one we are discussing without reference to LH vs RH batter. I never brought LH batter vs RH batter into the discussion. That is also why I tried to take the discussion away from pitch type because it requires a different pitch from a specific pitcher to move the ball "away" from a RH hitter than a LH hitter and taking the discussion there in my view misses the forest for the trees! A slider for example will move in to one and out to the other. We are not really talking about the pitchers although since the discussion turned to where Jurrjens was a pitcher in 2012 I thought it made sense to add some detail.

 

Really it is a discussion of the team and how feeble their hitting effort as a team appears against pitchers that come in here not really having outstanding years, not really exhibiting outstanding stuff that can dominate us while bringing very little to the table. I think that is the basic comment most of the posters have been making here relative to this topic. To me, the Jurrjens game is the best example of that while not being the only example we have seen since the beginning of last year.

 

I should note that as I stated above, it will be interesting to how this pans out within the AL East generally this year. I went through the whole year last year mainly focused on the Sox and not really much paying attention to this issue as a possible AL East issue. Then we got to the post season and I thought the hitting performance by the AL East representatives was in a word.... appalling and I said so. Based on the 2012 post season, this may well be an AL East issue more than it is a Red Sox issue.

 

Is is relevant? Are any of these discussions really "relevant" in the overall scheme of things? If we keep it to baseball only, which baseball team was acknowledged to be the most versatile, flexible, all around "team" of last year.....the Giants....No? Who won the World Series last year? Did an AL East team even get out of the AL Championship game?

[SoxFanForsyth]

That's because it's much more memorable when the Red Sox don't hit a junkballer than it is when the Sox don't hit a power pitcher. When the Sox don't hit a power pitcher, no one thinks anything of it because that's what they expected. That's the beautiful thing about statistics, they don't changed based on perception.

 

Yup. Best thing about stats. They're unbiased.