Trades before the deadline?

[User Name]

Of course Amaro said they have no desire to trade them. They're going to get asked about them, and they're going to give that answer every time. As soon as they say that Pap and Lee are available, they lose the 'you have to convince me to trade them' leverage

 

SFF, here's what i don't understand. With Uehara and Tazawa in this BP, plus RDLR as an option, not to mention the possibility of this being just a bad stretch for Bailey, how do you justify sending prospects and taking on Papelbon's contract? Sell me on this.

[Standing Room]

Of course Amaro said they have no desire to trade them. They're going to get asked about them, and they're going to give that answer every time. As soon as they say that Pap and Lee are available, they lose the 'you have to convince me to trade them' leverage

 

The problem is that even if Papelbon was available, he still wouldn't make sense. We have three guys who could close for us and would not cost prospects.

[User Name]

The problem is that even if Papelbon was available, he still wouldn't make sense. We have three guys who could close for us and would not cost prospects.

 

And all of them cost about half the money combined.

[Standing Room]

According to fangraphs, Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa and Breslow have been worth 2.1 WAR and they're being paid a combined $11.49 million this year. Papelbon has been worth 0.4 WAR, and he's being paid $13 million.

 

But yeah, Cherington's an idiot.

[kapsis21]

According to fangraphs, Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa and Breslow have been worth 2.1 WAR and they're being paid a combined $11.49 million this year. Papelbon has been worth 0.4 WAR, and he's being paid $13 million.

 

But yeah, Cherington's an idiot.

 

to my signature it goes.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, here's what i don't understand. With Uehara and Tazawa in this BP, plus RDLR as an option, not to mention the possibility of this being just a bad stretch for Bailey, how do you justify sending prospects and taking on Papelbon's contract? Sell me on this.

 

Well, I'm trying to look at it from both sides to be honest.

 

In favor of trading for Pap, Tazawa has not looked all that great lately, and has no closing experience, and he's really only been on a competitive team and throwing meaningful innings for 3 months, so how he reacts to a big game blown save is very much unknown, Uehara can't pitch in back to back games outside of only every once in a while, and RDLR is having some command issues in Pawtucket. Yes, it's going to cost prospects but if you're going to trade for a RP, Papelbon is a very well known commodity, he has had success in Boston, and has won a World Series so you know the pressure is not going to get to him. His K/9 is down but he's still got an 8:1 K:BB ratio which is more than enough to be an effective closer, he's not had any injury concerns, and he is having a lot of success in Philly, which is a market a lot like Boston.

 

In favor of looking internally, closers can appear out of no where, meaning players rarely come out of the minors and close. Most of the time it's a conversion from a very strong relief ace situation, much like Tazawa is now. RDLR clearly had the stuff to be a closer and it's well documented that control and command issues have significant correction when moving from a starters role into a relief role, and K rates increase as well (see: Andrew Miller), so just because RDLR is having those command issues from a starters role doesn't mean they won't be corrected in a relievers role (again, see Daniel Bard minor league conversion). Also, Jason Motte and Sergio Romo had little to no closer experience before their respective teams won the World Series over the past 2 seasons.

 

So, the question is whether you go with a reliable guy like Pap and know what you have or you roll the dice, hope one of your options catches a little lightening in a bottle a la Romo, and you are ok.

 

Personally, I would like to see the Sox give Taz and RDLR a couple opportunities to close out some games between now and mid July to see exactly what are options are. The worst thing would to go into the deadline blind about your depth options because you were trying to build Baileys confidence, the same Bailey who you demoted in the offseason for Hanrahan.

[BSN07]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1677558-assembling-jonathan-papelbon-trade-packages-from-the-red-sox-tigers-cardinals/page/2

 

LOL

 

Ranaudo, Bradley Jr., and Tazawa for Papelbon. Why not just make Uehera or Tazawa the closer?

 

I threw up in my mouth when I read that proposal. That is horrendous. Whomever wrote that had to have been joking. Maybe temporary insanity. That trade is so bad on so many levels.

[iortiz]

If you know more than the FO, you need to start sending your resume out to MLB teams rather than wasting time on here. Don't spend your formative years in relative obscurity. You could be pulling Bill James money!

 

Naaahhh I'm making more money here

[mvp 78]

Naaahhh I'm making more money here

 

Las drogas? :dunno:

[Standing Room]

So, the question is whether you go with a reliable guy like Pap and know what you have or you roll the dice, hope one of your options catches a little lightening in a bottle a la Romo, and you are ok.

 

Have Uehara, Tazawa or Breslow been unreliable? The question is more like "would you rather spend $14 million and prsopects on a closer with name recognition or would you rather not spend anything and use the pitchers we already have who are performing better".

[SoxFanForsyth]

Have Uehara, Tazawa or Breslow been unreliable? The question is more like "would you rather spend $14 million and prsopects on a closer with name recognition or would you rather not spend anything and use the pitchers we already have who are performing better".

 

Uehara can't pitch often enough to be a closer.

 

Tazawa is a great option but again, no closer experience, and how will he react in a bounce back situation?

 

Breslow is not a closer. He's a very good middle reliever, but he's not even a relief ace.

[iortiz]

Las drogas? :dunno:

 

Drogas? No sabes de lo que hablas amigo.

[iortiz]

Uehara can't pitch often enough to be a closer.

 

Tazawa is a great option but again, no closer experience, and how will he react in a bounce back situation?

 

Breslow is not a closer. He's a very good middle reliever, but he's not even a relief ace.

 

We need a real closer. Whata about Perkins?

[MJantomaso]

Last thing this franchise needs is to give up the kitchen sink for a guy that throws 1 inning.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Last thing this franchise needs is to give up the kitchen sink for a guy that throws 1 inning.

 

Nobody is saying to give up the kitchen sink, of anything even significant. A package around Brentz and taking on the salary is the most I would part with

[Youk Of The Nation]

SFF, here's what i don't understand. With Uehara and Tazawa in this BP, plus RDLR as an option, not to mention the possibility of this being just a bad stretch for Bailey, how do you justify sending prospects and taking on Papelbon's contract? Sell me on this.

 

Exactly. With the exception of this one stretch for Bailey, the bullpen has been one of the strengths of this team. There is no reason to spend more money and more talent to bring back a guy that the Sox already got rid of, not when they're playing so well after dropping a bunch of salary last season. Guys like Papelbon and Beckett, however much they helped win it all in 07, contributed mightily to the distraction and mess of the 2011-12 clubhouse. Why bring some of that back when the team finally looks like a team that I can root for instead of a bunch of guys that I despise watching? Papelbon is good, yes, but so are Tazawa, Uehara, Miller, and even Breslow. Bailey sucks right now, but the team does not. Remember, all three blown saves he has given up this year have ended up being won by the Sox.

[MJantomaso]

Don't crucify me for this but I think Miller could be an option. Ya he has a hiccup every so often with the long ball but something has clicked with him as of late. His velocity is back up in the upper 90's. I really havent seen him throw this hard since he was a starter for North Carolina. He has been nearly un-hittable to right handed hitters and I think his struggles against lefties could be a string of bad luck.

 

Even if that ^^^ seems farfetched, Its a much better option than giving up key pieces to this teams future for Pap.

[iortiz]

We do not have the piece to cover the closer role.

 

This piece will mark difference in close games mostly in playoffs.

[seabeachfred]

Exactly. With the exception of this one stretch for Bailey, the bullpen has been one of the strengths of this team. There is no reason to spend more money and more talent to bring back a guy that the Sox already got rid of, not when they're playing so well after dropping a bunch of salary last season. Guys like Papelbon and Beckett, however much they helped win it all in 07, contributed mightily to the distraction and mess of the 2011-12 clubhouse. Why bring some of that back when the team finally looks like a team that I can root for instead of a bunch of guys that I despise watching? Papelbon is good, yes, but so are Tazawa, Uehara, Miller, and even Breslow. Bailey sucks right now, but the team does not. Remember, all three blown saves he has given up this year have ended up being won by the Sox.

 

Your last sentence is an interesting point Youk, but keep in mind that there is nothing more devastating for a team that to have its closer keep blowing games and not be able to successfully close. I personally think that we have to develop one of young guns to take that spot over in the next two years. In the meantime Bailey must have a short leash; to be blunt I don't like to see him in the 9th inning unless we have a three run lead.

[User Name]

We do not have the piece to cover the closer role.

 

This piece will mark difference in close games mostly in playoffs.

 

Nonsense. The Red Sox have plenty of guys who can get outs in high-leverage situations. Your perception of what a "closer" is is so skewed, you're asking about Glen Perkins, who's a middle reliever closing for lack of a better option. Every one of the Sox' back-of-the-BP members is a better reliever than he is.

[MJantomaso]

Nonsense. The Red Sox have plenty of guys who can get outs in high-leverage situations. Your perception of what a "closer" is is so skewed, you're asking about Glen Perkins, who's a middle reliever closing for lack of a better option. Every one of the Sox' back-of-the-BP members is a better reliever than he is.

 

Thumbs up

[Youk Of The Nation]

Your last sentence is an interesting point Youk, but keep in mind that there is nothing more devastating for a team that to have its closer keep blowing games and not be able to successfully close. I personally think that we have to develop one of young guns to take that spot over in the next two years. In the meantime Bailey must have a short leash; to be blunt I don't like to see him in the 9th inning unless we have a three run lead.

 

Eventually bringing up another guy from the system would be great, but in the meantime the Sox have more than one guy in the pen who can close now, my point is that there is no reason to bring back Papelbon, any more than there would be a reason to bring back Beckett or Crawford or Youkilis.

[italstallianion]

Believe it or not, if I am reading the numbers correctly, it looks like Miller is thus far doing better against righties than lefties.

 

This year it looks like lefties are hitting .280/.345/.364 (55 batters) compared to righties at .149/.298/.175 (57 batters)

 

Although for his career it's the other way, understandably so.

 

I'm not that confident that Miller can consistently harness his control or get righties out, but I can say that I have been very impressed with his tenure as a reliever in Boston.

[iortiz]

Nonsense. The Red Sox have plenty of guys who can get outs in high-leverage situations. Your perception of what a "closer" is is so skewed, you're asking about Glen Perkins, who's a middle reliever closing for lack of a better option. Every one of the Sox' back-of-the-BP members is a better reliever than he is.

 

We do not have a reliable closer. Period.

[Youk Of The Nation]

We do not have a reliable closer. Period.

 

Everyone here on the opposite side of the argument has expounded on the merits of the other guys in the bullpen with regards to closing. Statistics have been posted, opinions have been given in detail, and reasonably logical arguments have been presented for why Papelbon needn't be re-Red-Soxed.

 

Your response is 'we don't have a reliable closer, period.'

 

In fact, several people have explained why there is a strong possibility that one of three people in the pen can be reliable closers. If you have a reason why they wouldn't, just stating your opinion as solid, unarguable fact doesn't end the discussion.

[iortiz]

Everyone here on the opposite side of the argument has expounded on the merits of the other guys in the bullpen with regards to closing. Statistics have been posted, opinions have been given in detail, and reasonably logical arguments have been presented for why Papelbon needn't be re-Red-Soxed.

 

Your response is 'we don't have a reliable closer, period.'

 

In fact, several people have explained why there is a strong possibility that one of three people in the pen can be reliable closers. If you have a reason why they wouldn't, just stating your opinion as solid, unarguable fact doesn't end the discussion.

 

Do not take me wrong. I like Tazawa and Koji but they are not closers and they are prone to be HRed in pressure situations and that doesn't help mostly in close games... look what has happened with Bailey lately. I like what they do in their current roles. If you want to experiment with them, fine, I'm not in that wagon. I do not want to see again a Aceves, Bard, etc. 2.0 do you? Bailey sucks. Hanrahan is out. Hence, and again, we do not have a reliable/proved closer... that is a fact.

[rjortiz]

I'd rather rent Jesse Crain, than pay Papelbon $39 million, but why is no one talking about Tazawa and his 38/3 K/BB ratio for the closer position?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Do not take me wrong. I like Tazawa and Koji but they are not closers, they are prone to be HRed in pressure situations and that doesn't help mostly in close games... look what has happened with Bailey lately. I like what they do in their current roles. If you want to experiment with them, fine, I'm not in that wagon. I do not want to see again a Aceves, Bard, etc. 2.0 do you? Bailey sucks. Hanrahan is out. Hence, and again, we do not have a reliable/proved closer... that is a fact.

 

To be fair, Sergio Romo has 3 career saves before becoming the Giants closer mid season last year, and they won the WS with him striking out Cabrera to win it.

 

Jason Motte had 3 career saves before becoming the Cardinals closer mid season in 2011 and the Cards win the WS that year.

 

Motte actually provides a very good parallel to Tazawa. Struggled in 09 (4.76 ERA), figured it out in 2010 (2.24 ERA), and in August, 2011 had a 1.73 ERA, and was bumped to closer. He followed that by saving 9/10 opportunities and allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP in the pot season.

[Youk Of The Nation]

I'd rather rent Jesse Crain, than pay Papelbon $39 million, but why is no one talking about Tazawa and his 38/3 K/BB ratio for the closer position?

 

Some of us are, but others are convinced that moving him up one inning will cause him to turn into Charlie Sheen from the first twenty minutes of Major League.

[iortiz]

To be fair, Sergio Romo has 3 career saves before becoming the Giants closer mid season last year, and they won the WS with him striking out Cabrera to win it.

 

Jason Motte had 3 career saves before becoming the Cardinals closer mid season in 2011 and the Cards win the WS that year.

 

Motte actually provides a very good parallel to Tazawa. Struggled in 09 (4.76 ERA), figured it out in 2010 (2.24 ERA), and in August, 2011 had a 1.73 ERA, and was bumped to closer. He followed that by saving 9/10 opportunities and allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP in the pot season.

 

Well, hopefully Tazawa is the answer if they go that way.