Is Clay Buchholz on the verge of being a #1?

[Lord Snow]

Clay Buchholz has certainly had his struggles in a Red Sox uniform. But last year he was arguably a #1 after he got through the first two months of the season (and if you forget his October start).

 

June: 4 starts, 30 IP, 25K, 5 BB, 2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

July: 4 starts, 29.1 IP, 19K, 7 BB, 2.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

August: 5 starts, 36.1 IP, 24K, 8 BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP (tattooed for 7 ER in 5 innings on Aug 22)

September: 5 starts, 35.2 IP, 26 K, 13 BB, 3.03 ERA 1.18 WHIP

 

In all 4 of those months Buchholz averaged over 7 innings pitched per game. His ERA and WHIP were highly respectable.

 

If he can stay healthy and do that for a whole season he will have a Cy Young award at the end of it.

[BSN07]

He has the potential. I'd be happy if he established himself as a definitive #2.

[Behindenemylines]

We need a healthy productive season from Buchholtz. When he is on his game he is very good. He needs to be consistent, and he hasn't proven that he can be yet. Until he does he is a good middle of the rotation pitcher. To climb up to a #1 or #2 spot he has to win 15 to 20 games and consistently go deep into games. Your #1 or# 2 starters you have to be able to pencil them in at the beginning of the season for at least 15 wins and 200 innings. I don't know if we can do that with Buchholtz.

[User Name]

We need a healthy productive season from Buchholtz. When he is on his game he is very good. He needs to be consistent, and he hasn't proven that he can be yet. Until he does he is a good middle of the rotation pitcher. To climb up to a #1 or #2 spot he has to win 15 to 20 games and consistently go deep into games. Your #1 or# 2 starters you have to be able to pencil them in at the beginning of the season for at least 15 wins and 200 innings. I don't know if we can do that with Buchholtz.

 

You can't "pencil guys in" for wins, because they're too team dependent, and not a lot of teams have a #2 that can go 200 innings. There's simply not that many 200 IP pitchers in MLB.

 

What you can and should expect out of a #2 is over 180 IP and decent ERA and peripherals.

[Behindenemylines]

You can't "pencil guys in" for wins, because they're too team dependent, and not a lot of teams have a #2 that can go 200 innings. There's simply not that many 200 IP pitchers in MLB.

 

What you can and should expect out of a #2 is over 180 IP and decent ERA and peripherals.

 

Teams that win and go deep in the playoffs have #1 and #2 that get you around 200 innings. The four teams that made league championship series in 2012:

 

Tigers: Verlander 238 Sanchez 195

Yanks: CC 200 Kuroda 219

Cards: Lohse 211 Wainright 198

Giants: Cain 219 Bumgarner 208

 

Until the Sox have that then their SP will be a weak spot.

[User Name]

Teams that win and go deep in the playoffs have #1 and #2 that get you around 200 innings. The four teams that made league championship series in 2012:

 

Tigers: Verlander 238 Sanchez 195

Yanks: CC 200 Kuroda 219

Cards: Lohse 211 Wainright 198

Giants: Cain 219 Bumgarner 208

 

Until the Sox have that then their SP will be a weak spot.

 

"Around" 200 innings is not 200+ innings.

 

Also, using one year to validate such a leap-of-faith statement is not valid.

 

Let's just agree that teams need effective pitching to make it deep into the playoffs.

[Dojji]

We've had this thread before, almost word for word, for each of the last 3 years.

 

My answer now is what it was then. I'll believe it with Buchholz, when I see it. I got screamed down last year when I said Buchholz was an area of concern -- that turned out to be prophetic. I just don't feel it with this guy, no rational reason other than his tendency to become injured, but I've never gotten the sense that he's on the verge of becoming any more than he already is -- a talented but very inconsistent starter that you shouldn't build your franchise around.

[jung]

We had a recent thread were we were talking about somebody...Beckectt and Lester and Buch I think. You could argue that those two guys as the guys at the top of the rotation left about 50-60 innings between them for the pen to pitch...that is just between them. You expect your 4 and 5 to leave innings out there. When the guys at the top are leaving innings out there, you are doomed as a bullpen.

[Station 13]

Not even close. First he need to settle at #2 first. He hasn't come close to being a dependable #2.

[mvp 78]

What Dojji said. The thing is, you can't just ignore two months of the season like they're meaningless.

[Emmz]

He needs to be more reliable.

[Palodios]

*whistles*

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/16863-poll-buccholz-ace.html

 

Same exact thread, except with a poll.

 

Maybe we can merge threads? Mods have been quiet lately.

[jung]

I just don't see Buch suddenly emerges as a 200-220 innings pitcher in the ML's. Without being able to draw down those kinds of innings....he is not a 1 anywhere. Either he needs a little vacation in the middle of the season or he breaks down or his stretches of less than solid pitching are just to long or just to numerous through the course of a season. Give it up....ain't gonna' happen.

[Lord Snow]

Teams that win and go deep in the playoffs have #1 and #2 that get you around 200 innings. The four teams that made league championship series in 2012:

 

Tigers: Verlander 238 Sanchez 195

Yanks: CC 200 Kuroda 219

Cards: Lohse 211 Wainright 198

Giants: Cain 219 Bumgarner 208

 

Until the Sox have that then their SP will be a weak spot.

 

Excellent point.

 

Something that will keep the Red Sox from being an elite team in baseball is their lack of a true ace.

 

They need to find a young, available, ace and sell the farm to get him. Then lock him up long-term and pray he stays healthy. Felix Hernandez seems to fit the bill as the only "ace" that comes to mind who is not on a top team. David Price is also fits the description but I don't see the Rays shipping him to a division rival so he can beat them 5 times a year.

[reYoukilis]

I dont think getting a young, big name is going to happen because there isnt much in the free agent market, and we dont have much to trade except money.

 

Having said that, is it a coincidence that the starting pitching went to hell after Varitek left, and will that be rectified with Ross?

[TrueFax]

This teams need a starter "on the cusp" of becoming a number one starter, but Buchholz is not him. His FIP over the cited period of time was 3.83. While 3.83 is good, it isn't impressive. Buchholz is a number three starter.

[Lord Snow]

I dont think getting a young, big name is going to happen because there isnt much in the free agent market, and we dont have much to trade except money.

 

Having said that, is it a coincidence that the starting pitching went to hell after Varitek left, and will that be rectified with Ross?

 

Ross isn't even going to play very much. He will serve strictly as a back-up. I'd guesstimate he starts 3/10 games just to give Salty a rest (assuming Salty isn't dealt prior to the season). Ross' bat is a liability. The Sox can't afford to have a line-up with 2 automatic outs in it in Ross & Iglesias.

 

I really think the Sox need to get themselves a true, consistent, ace. They haven't had one since Pedro Martinez departed after 2004. 8 years is a long drought. While the organization has shown it could produce quality starters (Buchholz & Lester) it has yet to produce an ace and that's nothing against the scouting and development. Ace talent is few and far between.

 

One of the biggest problems with the Red Sox is that they've replaced A level players with B talent, and they've been doing it since Pedro Martinez left the rotation and he was replaced with Matt Clement and David Wells. Since Manny Ramirez was traded for Jason Bay. Those players needed to be replaced with elite talent, and the Sox have tried to downgrade every time they have had lost a big name player.

 

Theo Epstein fell asleep in several situations. With Manny Ramirez aging he should have made certain that Miguel Cabrera became a Red Sox as he was the only suitable replacement for Ramirez short of Albert Pujols.

[RedSoxNC84]

[/b]

Ross' bat is a liability.

 

I get that he doesn't hit as many homers as Salty, but Ross has a better career OBP, not to mention Salty has also struck out 11 more times in 125 less at bats.

[Dojji]

[/b]

I really think the Sox need to get themselves a true, consistent, ace. They haven't had one since Pedro Martinez departed after 2004. 8 years is a long drought. While the organization has shown it could produce quality starters (Buchholz & Lester) it has yet to produce an ace and that's nothing against the scouting and development. Ace talent is few and far between.

 

For an ace? 30 years is a long drought. 8-12 years is actually more or less normal. Do you think aces grow on trees?

[jacksonianmarch]

This has been hashed and rehashed. An ace is consistent and durable. Buchholz has had stretches where he's dominant. He also misses a ton of time and has stretches of not just in effectiveness, but downright abhorrence

[BSN07]

[/b]

 

Ross isn't even going to play very much. He will serve strictly as a back-up. I'd guesstimate he starts 3/10 games just to give Salty a rest (assuming Salty isn't dealt prior to the season). Ross' bat is a liability. The Sox can't afford to have a line-up with 2 automatic outs in it in Ross & Iglesias.

 

I really think the Sox need to get themselves a true, consistent, ace. They haven't had one since Pedro Martinez departed after 2004. 8 years is a long drought. While the organization has shown it could produce quality starters (Buchholz & Lester) it has yet to produce an ace and that's nothing against the scouting and development. Ace talent is few and far between.

 

One of the biggest problems with the Red Sox is that they've replaced A level players with B talent, and they've been doing it since Pedro Martinez left the rotation and he was replaced with Matt Clement and David Wells. Since Manny Ramirez was traded for Jason Bay. Those players needed to be replaced with elite talent, and the Sox have tried to downgrade every time they have had lost a big name player.

 

Theo Epstein fell asleep in several situations. With Manny Ramirez aging he should have made certain that Miguel Cabrera became a Red Sox as he was the only suitable replacement for Ramirez short of Albert Pujols.

 

They've already said Ross was brought in as more then a back up C. I expect to see him in at least 50% of games this season.

[Plumpamania]

No. He's not.

[rjortiz]

Felix Doubrount possible ace? He had one start where he struck out 10 batters. Taking out all of his other starts, he had a 1.29 ERA. I think we are looking at the next Bob Gibson, folks.

[RedSoxNC84]

The closest thing we had to an ace since Pedro was 2011 Beckett. Clay Buch is a number 3, and will always be a number 3.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The closest thing we had to an ace since Pedro was 2011 Beckett. Clay Buch is a number 3, and will always be a number 3.

 

This is hilarious.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Beckett had a career 4.17 era with the Sox.

 

Buchholz has a career 3.92 era, and Lester a career 3.76.

 

But no, Beckett was the best. :lol:

[redsoxfan3]

This is the way I look at it. Buchholz is not going into the 2013 season as our ace. He does have the potential to put up solid numbers. We need to focus on getting starting pitching back on track. If Buchholz can put up ace like numbers, that would be an excellent bonus, but having him just put up solid numbers for a #2 or #3 is what we should look for. Everything else will fall in place. What is known is that we do not have a true ace and our focus should just be on having a quality rotation, not on whether Buchholz becoming an ace.

[SCM33]

No. He is barely a 2. He is a very good #3.

[RedSoxNC84]

Beckett had a career 4.17 era with the Sox.

 

Buchholz has a career 3.92 era, and Lester a career 3.76.

 

But no, Beckett was the best. :lol:

 

I said 2011 Beckett, not Beckett overall. I guess you just missed that part though

[mvp 78]

I said 2011 Beckett, not Beckett overall. I guess you just missed that part though

 

Reading skills aren't some people's strongpoint around here.