The Starting Pitching Free Agency Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

So, with the season at autopsy and the head coach removed, I think all will agree that the sox pitching was the major culprit. With only 3 spots taken in the sox rotation and the top 2 spots open, pitching will need to be acquired. So, I figured a run down of pitchers available via FA would be good for those who are so inclined to read (and I am going alphabetically).

 

1. Scott Baker, 31, RHP- Baker is coming off TJS and should be ready either by the beginning of the season or by May. He had been consistently good in Minnesota with 3 seasons of WAR's greater than 3. His last full season in 2011 showed a WAR of 4.2. He has some serious durability issues as evidenced by his one season of 30 starts or more and currently being in rehab from TJS, but when he takes the mound he is a good #3 type pitcher who averages a tick over 6IP per start. He'd likely take a 1 yr deal at a pretty low base with escalators should be come back healthy. He might be a good guy to sign, but not count on in the rotation from day, ie consider him your #6 starter

 

2. Jorge de la Rosa, 32, LHP- He fits into the same boat as Baker. He should be fully healthy come the spring and actually revitalized his career in Colorado of all places. His K rates are high, he has lightning stuff but poor command. He will undoubtedly have his option declined in the offseason and might be a good guy to sign and stash

 

3. Ryan Dempster, 36, RHP- A lot of people wanted him traded for this season. Well, Texas got him and he has sucked it big time in Texas. He was completely dominant in Chicago this yr after having a forgettable 2011. But his move to Texas likely cost him years and millions of dollars. He went from being a guy who looked like a lock to get a 3 yr deal, to a guy who looks like a lock to get a 1 yr deal. When on, he is a deceptive strikeout pitcher who found his command again this yr. When he is off, he is a homer allowing machine who puts a lot of runners on base. I dont see him as a great option in Fenway, but he would at least give you innings. Prior to going to Texas, he was on pace for his 5th consecutive 200IP season, but ineffectiveness and a trip to the restricted list cost him that. He's durable, he's a veteran, and he should come on a short term deal. Should the sox not land anything better, he could be a pretty good stop gap option in Boston

 

4. Gavin Floyd, 29, RHP- Floyd is almost a lock to have his option declined. He's coming off a season where he threw his lowest IP total as a full time starter and ended the season with injury concerns with his throwing elbow. Prior to this yr, though, he was a lock for 30 starts and over 6IP per start. He gives out the long ball like candy, but limits the walks and puts up a respectable strikeout rate. He is also one of the youngest candidates available. I am unsure what the read will be on his contract status due to his injury concerns, but if he checks out in the post season physical, he is a lock to get a long term Pavano type deal (4yrs $40 mil). When he is on, he can eat innings, get a fair amount of K's and win you a lot of games. When he is off, he is a complete batting practice pitcher capable of causing Landsdown to be pelted. If there arent any better options, you might have to go here. If Doubront is dealt in a package with a few more guys for a bona fide #1 or 2, then Floyd is a good middle of the rotation option

 

5. Zach Greinke, 28, RHP- Since 2008, there are few pitchers as consistent. Low 1.2 WHIP's, solid ERA's, high K numbers, big innings. And dont forget his ridiculous 2009 campaign in the AL where he won the Cy Young. Greinke has all the goods and the durability to demand a monster contract on the open market. His problem will be the anxiety issue. Greinke is a lock to get a 9 figure contract, but should he recede into his emotional shell in the beanpot cauldron, he could be as lost a sum as Crawford's contract or Lackey's. This would be the kind of all-in move the sox might want to show their fan base, but it might also be the move that causes the kingdom to spin out of control should he need time in a mental institute.

 

6. Dan Haren, 32, RHP- Dan was the model of consistency since 2005, regularly logging 215-220IP with high K totals and a great walk rate. But this past yr, he threw up a negative WAR, averaged less than 6IP per start and missed time with a dreaded back issue. His high dollar figure option will be declined and he might be the kind of player the sox could try a pillow contract on. 1 yr deal, $10 mil, come to Fenway and see how you do. If he does great, then you can get draft pick comp or sign him long term. If he sucks, you're out the money, but not the yrs. If the sox cannot do anything on the trade front and shy away from Greinke, this is the kind of low risk, high reward place holder move the sox should pursue

 

7. Edwin Jackson, 29, RHP- Jackson has been an innings eater for a long time now, but his terrible walk rates and mediocre K rates have created skeptics. Enough so that he couldnt get a long term deal last yr. Well, he was much more consistent this yr on the best team in baseball, and even though he faltered in the last few meaningless weeks, he should be able to parlay his talents into a long term deal. He isnt exactly the front end pitcher the sox desire, but he eats innings, stays healthy, and has shown an improvement in the power department.

 

8. Hiroki Kuroda, 38, RHP- I do not think Hiroki will actually make it too far into FA, but if he doesnt, he is the absolutely perfect place holder for your young pitchers. He doesnt sound like he wants more than a 1 yr deal at a time and was just the most valuable pitcher on a pretty good Yankees staff.

 

9. Brandon McCarthy, 29, RHP- I think this guy should be avoided with a 10 foot pole. Chronically injured, now recovering from a brain injury from a batter ball. Add to that the fact that he never reaches 200IP and you have exactly what the sox dont need. A jumpy pitcher guaranteed to get your 6th starter some work

 

10. Shaun Marcum, 31, RHP- Marcum is a middle of the rotation guy with minimal stuff and now an elbow issue. Due to his age and his numbers over the past 3 seasons, he is likely headed for a 3 yr deal. I do not think that is a good idea in Boston

 

11. Jake Peavy, 31, RHP- Wanna roll the dice? Peavy has been in Chicago since 2009 mid season. And he finally threw his first 200IP season with them in what amounted to a contract yr. Peavy was brilliant this yr, and with his stuff and stats, will likely be in for a pretty nice contract as he is a solid #2 or weaker rotation ace when healthy. You are likely looking at a 4-5 yr contract on this guy. If healthy, this is a huge move. If not, then you will be saddled with more bad money

 

12. Anibal Sanchez, 29, RHP-

 

will finish later

[Station 13]

Haren would be my choice. He doesn't walk many, career high is just 55. He's worth a flyer on 1 year.

 

Kuroda is going to get a 2 year 25M to go back to LA. They're targeting pitching. They have the most expensive roster right now. They have a ton of money and incentive to make another splash to try to filled up their ballpark.

[kapsis21]

Haren or Greinke take your pick.

Greinke has a 3.48 ERA compared to 4.33ERA for Haren

However both players against the AL East teams, the teams are batting a .250+ avg. slightly on the higher side.

some stats here

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5565/teamId/10/dan-haren

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5883/teamId/10/zack-greinke

[kapsis21]

Haren or Greinke take your pick.

Greinke has a 3.48 ERA compared to 4.33ERA for Haren

However both players against the AL East teams, the teams are batting a .250+ avg. slightly on the higher side.

some stats here

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5565/teamId/10/dan-haren

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5883/teamId/10/zack-greinke

[BornToRun]

Grienke is a head case and I don't want us going anywhere near him.

[Laser Show]

Haren would be my first choice. I'm on the fence with Greinke, he's a great pitcher, but I think a small market team like Pittsburgh should open the coffers for him. He'd be perfect there.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Sox will almost certainly sign Haren and trade for another top of the rotation pitcher, IMO.

 

Haren may sign a pillow contract, too. Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[mvp 78]

Peavy

Haren

Jackson

De La Rosa

 

In that order... The others will either cost too much, be unavailable, or would just be a bad signing.

[a700hitter]

Haren or Greinke take your pick.

Greinke has a 3.48 ERA compared to 4.33ERA for Haren

However both players against the AL East teams, the teams are batting a .250+ avg. slightly on the higher side.

some stats here

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5565/teamId/10/dan-haren

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5883/teamId/10/zack-greinke

AL East is not the beast anymore. AL West kicked the crap out of the AL East this year.

[RedSoxNC84]

So, with the season at autopsy and the head coach removed, I think all will agree that the sox pitching was the major culprit. With only 3 spots taken in the sox rotation and the top 2 spots open, pitching will need to be acquired. So, I figured a run down of pitchers available via FA would be good for those who are so inclined to read (and I am going alphabetically).

 

1. Scott Baker, 31, RHP- Baker is coming off TJS and should be ready either by the beginning of the season or by May. He had been consistently good in Minnesota with 3 seasons of WAR's greater than 3. His last full season in 2011 showed a WAR of 4.2. He has some serious durability issues as evidenced by his one season of 30 starts or more and currently being in rehab from TJS, but when he takes the mound he is a good #3 type pitcher who averages a tick over 6IP per start. He'd likely take a 1 yr deal at a pretty low base with escalators should be come back healthy. He might be a good guy to sign, but not count on in the rotation from day, ie consider him your #6 starter

 

2. Jorge de la Rosa, 32, LHP- He fits into the same boat as Baker. He should be fully healthy come the spring and actually revitalized his career in Colorado of all places. His K rates are high, he has lightning stuff but poor command. He will undoubtedly have his option declined in the offseason and might be a good guy to sign and stash

 

3. Ryan Dempster, 36, RHP- A lot of people wanted him traded for this season. Well, Texas got him and he has sucked it big time in Texas. He was completely dominant in Chicago this yr after having a forgettable 2011. But his move to Texas likely cost him years and millions of dollars. He went from being a guy who looked like a lock to get a 3 yr deal, to a guy who looks like a lock to get a 1 yr deal. When on, he is a deceptive strikeout pitcher who found his command again this yr. When he is off, he is a homer allowing machine who puts a lot of runners on base. I dont see him as a great option in Fenway, but he would at least give you innings. Prior to going to Texas, he was on pace for his 5th consecutive 200IP season, but ineffectiveness and a trip to the restricted list cost him that. He's durable, he's a veteran, and he should come on a short term deal. Should the sox not land anything better, he could be a pretty good stop gap option in Boston

 

4. Gavin Floyd, 29, RHP- Floyd is almost a lock to have his option declined. He's coming off a season where he threw his lowest IP total as a full time starter and ended the season with injury concerns with his throwing elbow. Prior to this yr, though, he was a lock for 30 starts and over 6IP per start. He gives out the long ball like candy, but limits the walks and puts up a respectable strikeout rate. He is also one of the youngest candidates available. I am unsure what the read will be on his contract status due to his injury concerns, but if he checks out in the post season physical, he is a lock to get a long term Pavano type deal (4yrs $40 mil). When he is on, he can eat innings, get a fair amount of K's and win you a lot of games. When he is off, he is a complete batting practice pitcher capable of causing Landsdown to be pelted. If there arent any better options, you might have to go here. If Doubront is dealt in a package with a few more guys for a bona fide #1 or 2, then Floyd is a good middle of the rotation option

 

5. Zach Greinke, 28, RHP- Since 2008, there are few pitchers as consistent. Low 1.2 WHIP's, solid ERA's, high K numbers, big innings. And dont forget his ridiculous 2009 campaign in the AL where he won the Cy Young. Greinke has all the goods and the durability to demand a monster contract on the open market. His problem will be the anxiety issue. Greinke is a lock to get a 9 figure contract, but should he recede into his emotional shell in the beanpot cauldron, he could be as lost a sum as Crawford's contract or Lackey's. This would be the kind of all-in move the sox might want to show their fan base, but it might also be the move that causes the kingdom to spin out of control should he need time in a mental institute.

 

6. Dan Haren, 32, RHP- Dan was the model of consistency since 2005, regularly logging 215-220IP with high K totals and a great walk rate. But this past yr, he threw up a negative WAR, averaged less than 6IP per start and missed time with a dreaded back issue. His high dollar figure option will be declined and he might be the kind of player the sox could try a pillow contract on. 1 yr deal, $10 mil, come to Fenway and see how you do. If he does great, then you can get draft pick comp or sign him long term. If he sucks, you're out the money, but not the yrs. If the sox cannot do anything on the trade front and shy away from Greinke, this is the kind of low risk, high reward place holder move the sox should pursue

 

7. Edwin Jackson, 29, RHP- Jackson has been an innings eater for a long time now, but his terrible walk rates and mediocre K rates have created skeptics. Enough so that he couldnt get a long term deal last yr. Well, he was much more consistent this yr on the best team in baseball, and even though he faltered in the last few meaningless weeks, he should be able to parlay his talents into a long term deal. He isnt exactly the front end pitcher the sox desire, but he eats innings, stays healthy, and has shown an improvement in the power department.

 

8. Hiroki Kuroda, 38, RHP- I do not think Hiroki will actually make it too far into FA, but if he doesnt, he is the absolutely perfect place holder for your young pitchers. He doesnt sound like he wants more than a 1 yr deal at a time and was just the most valuable pitcher on a pretty good Yankees staff.

 

9. Brandon McCarthy, 29, RHP- I think this guy should be avoided with a 10 foot pole. Chronically injured, now recovering from a brain injury from a batter ball. Add to that the fact that he never reaches 200IP and you have exactly what the sox dont need. A jumpy pitcher guaranteed to get your 6th starter some work

 

10. Shaun Marcum, 31, RHP- Marcum is a middle of the rotation guy with minimal stuff and now an elbow issue. Due to his age and his numbers over the past 3 seasons, he is likely headed for a 3 yr deal. I do not think that is a good idea in Boston

 

11. Jake Peavy, 31, RHP- Wanna roll the dice? Peavy has been in Chicago since 2009 mid season. And he finally threw his first 200IP season with them in what amounted to a contract yr. Peavy was brilliant this yr, and with his stuff and stats, will likely be in for a pretty nice contract as he is a solid #2 or weaker rotation ace when healthy. You are likely looking at a 4-5 yr contract on this guy. If healthy, this is a huge move. If not, then you will be saddled with more bad money

 

12. Anibal Sanchez, 29, RHP-

 

will finish later

 

 

I couldn't even count the number of times you said "is a lock to/for"

[jacksonianmarch]

I said it three times, so as a resident of North Carolina, I am not surprised you can't count past 2. J/k

[RedSoxNC84]

I said it three times, so as a resident of North Carolina, I am not surprised you can't count past 2. J/k

 

For your information, I can count to at least five.. I think....

[rjortiz]

 

5. Zach Greinke, 28, RHP- Since 2008, there are few pitchers as consistent. Low 1.2 WHIP's, solid ERA's, high K numbers, big innings. And dont forget his ridiculous 2009 campaign in the AL where he won the Cy Young. Greinke has all the goods and the durability to demand a monster contract on the open market. His problem will be the anxiety issue. Greinke is a lock to get a 9 figure contract, but should he recede into his emotional shell in the beanpot cauldron, he could be as lost a sum as Crawford's contract or Lackey's. This would be the kind of all-in move the sox might want to show their fan base, but it might also be the move that causes the kingdom to spin out of control should he need time in a mental institute.

 

 

I think he's been on an antidepressant ever since he returned to baseball. He's also seeing a sports psychologist. It seems to have worked pretty well for him. Stop being so condescending. Greinke came back from his depression and anxiety issues, and now he's one of the best pitchers in the game. I wouldn't put anything past him.

[a700hitter]

I think he's been on an antidepressant ever since he returned to baseball. He's also seeing a sports psychologist. It seems to have worked pretty well for him. Stop being so condescending. Greinke came back from his depression and anxiety issues, and now he's one of the best pitchers in the game. I wouldn't put anything past him.

He went through a very rough period, and he is apparently stronger for it as he has done very well. Being on a major league mound is pressure. He has handled it quite well. He has been in pennant races and pitched in a big market and been successful. People need to stop making him out to be a mental case. He's not. Manny Ramirez was a mental case. Alfredo Aceves is a mental case. Carl Everett was a mental case. Boston didn't affect their performance. Greinke will go somewhere else and be a top pitcher and people here are proposing to sign broken down warhorses who had off seasons. I don't get it.

[rjortiz]

He went through a very rough period, and he is apparently stronger for it as he has done very well. Being on a major league mound is pressure. He has handled it quite well. He has been in pennant races and pitched in a big market and been successful. People need to stop making him out to be a mental case. He's not. Manny Ramirez was a mental case. Alfredo Aceves is a mental case. Carl Everett was a mental case. Boston didn't affect their performance. Greinke will go somewhere else and be a top pitcher and people here are proposing to sign broken down warhorses who had off seasons. I don't get it.

 

I don't either. He'll be 29, in 2013. A five year deal would bring him to age 34, and he's one of the better control pitchers in the game, so I'd have to believe he could survive a dip in velocity. Also, even if he is just a number two, he's still better than anyone on this staff.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Gambling with mental problems, particularly an anxiety disorder, is a really stupid thing to do. Especially in a place like Boston. I can't believe people still think that recklessly throwing around five year contracts is the way to fix your franchise. We're going to be a subpar team for a year or two. Deal with it.

 

I'd sign a couple of these guys to 1 year deals, that's it. Maybe Edwin Jackson too, depending on what his price tag is.

[a700hitter]

Gambling with mental problems, particularly an anxiety disorder, is a really stupid thing to do. Especially in a place like Boston. I can't believe people still think that recklessly throwing around five year contracts is the way to fix your franchise. We're going to be a subpar team for a year or two. Deal with it.

 

I'd sign a couple of these guys to 1 year deals, that's it. Maybe Edwin Jackson too, depending on what his price tag is.

Is there a higher percentage of people that crack up in Boston than in other places? Too much is being made of this fear.

[iortiz]

Peavy

Haren

Jackson

De La Rosa

 

In that order... The others will either cost too much, be unavailable, or would just be a bad signing.

 

I'd sign both, Peavy and Haren...

 

Peavey

Haren

Buch

Lester

Felix

 

Backup Lackey

[iortiz]

Again, this team needs two solid pitchers, no one, two!... if you want to make noise next season. We have money, so... spend!

[jacksonianmarch]

For your information, I can count to at least five.. I think....

 

we were both wrong, it's six, lol

[mvp 78]

I'd sign both, Peavy and Haren...

 

Peavey

Haren

Buch

Lester

Felix

 

Backup Lackey

 

At this point, I'd trade Doubront, have Lackey 5th, and use Morales as a spot starter. (If those two are signed)

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'd sign both, Peavy and Haren...

 

Peavey

Haren

Buch

Lester

Felix

 

Backup Lackey

 

I wouldn't touch Jake Peavy with a 10 foot pole. He's had 1 good season in the past 3 years. And it wasn't even an elite season.

 

All you're getting with Jake Peavy is another Josh Beckett. Injury ridden and inconsistent.

 

Peavy would be a big mistake. From 09-11, he made a total of 52 starts. That's averaging 17 starts per season, or essentially missing 1/2 of your starts each year.

 

No on Peavy.

 

Haren is an absolutely perfect buy low candidate. Considering the Angels will offer him a qualifying offer, you'll likely have to pay around $14-15mm for a 1 year deal with him, which is 110% worth it. He's a perfect fit for the Sox while guys like Webster and Barnes continue to progress.

 

Then you go out and trade for either Tim Lincecum or Cliff Lee.

 

The Phillies have $133mm locked into next season, and that's only accounting for 13 players. They are going to need offense badly, especially considering Utley, Howard, and Rollins are all injury ridden at this point. Dishing Cliff Lee for a couple prospects (Doubront + Cecchini should get it done) and salary relief (~24mm/year) would benefit them significantly.

 

The Giants will owe Lincecum $22mm next year. Whether or not they listen on him will be interesting. They've got $81mm locked up for 6 players next year. But they very well may try to extend Lincecum given that they are out from the Zito contract after the 2013 season. Or they may try to get a more balanced team and grab some offense for Lincecum. I would guess that a deal involving Doubront + Ellsbury + Cecchini could work out for Lincecum, and the Sox would then be able to go out and sign a guy like BJ Upton for CF (believe it or not, he and Ellsbury have extremely similar numbers).

 

It will certainly be interesting this offseason. But I've said it a number of times, I think they'll sign Dan Haren and trade for Lee or Lincecum. I also wouldn't be surprised if they contacted the Nats about Mike Morse. He's a versatile guy who can play LF or 1B.

[SoxFanForsyth]

At this point, I'd trade Doubront, have Lackey 5th, and use Morales as a spot starter. (If those two are signed)

 

Too many people are ignoring Rubby De La Rosa.

 

He's going to open a lot of eyes. And he will be in the rotation next season.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Is there a higher percentage of people that crack up in Boston than in other places?

Tell me all the people we've acquired who have had to take time away from baseball and go on medication for an anxiety disorder, and I can give you a better answer.

[a700hitter]

Tell me all the people we've acquired who have had to take time away from baseball and go on medication for an anxiety disorder, and I can give you a better answer.

Jimmy Piersall.

[rjortiz]

Tell me all the people we've acquired who have had to take time away from baseball and go on medication for an anxiety disorder, and I can give you a better answer.

 

Maybe I'm biased, but people on medication are relatively stable.

[SoxSport]

I think Lee or Halladay might be available in a trade. More likely Halladay, who may be in decline.

They need an anchor in the rotation.

 

The back part of their bullpen is in worse shape now than the starters. Bailey is no Papelbon--for sure.

 

It's a shame Cherington may have wrecked Bard's career. In the light of Bard's minor league head problems as a starter, it was folly to try to convert him back. And Cherington was hardly qualified to make that kind of a decision.

 

The Red Sox staff underachieved across the board. That suggests they are being handled wrong.

Young failed in Boston--then succeeded in Oakland, suggesting it isn't the pitching coach.

FO ideology forced on the manager could be a factor.Personnel, pitch counts,etc. The FO clearly sucks on pitching. That's been evident for awhile. Maybe James and the other new FO additions will help.

 

It's really about the pitching: recognizing what the problems are and correcting them. The media focus is on Valentine, but the real problems are much deeper than Bobby's mouth, and they have yet to be corrected.

[SoxSport]

Jimmy Piersall.

 

Piersall's problems were characterized then as a nervous breakdown. Never as "anxiety disorder" that I can recall. Maybe it was. Royce White, the NBA rookie, has anxiety disorder--a fear of flying and being confronted with new challenges (playing in the NBA, for example).

 

It's the kind of thing you want to stay away from. Especially in the Northeast. The Boston and NY media will put Greinke under a microscope and eat him alive.

[wyo-sox]

I did not realize that Kyle Lohse is a free agent next year. I have watched him a few times this year and liked what I saw.

[SoxSport]

Talking about anxiety disorder, Bard may have shown some of this in his early minor league efforts to be a starter. He overcame his problems as a reliever--pitching basically for one inning. Why in the world they would try to convert him back to starter, in the light of his previous problems (which were not made known at the time) is beyond me. What happened this time around to Bard was wholly predictable based on his minor league experience. That's a sign of some competency issues in the Red Sox management organization.

 

The media, predictably, has touched on none of this.