Let's talk about Josh Hamilton

[Orange Juiced]

His name is being bandied about on WEEI and in other Sox forums as someone the Sox could go after this offseason. My initial, gut-level response is NO WAY. And it's probably a correct gut reaction. My concerns are primarily threefold: (1) He has a troublesome substance addiction which probably will not be helped by living in Boston, (2) He has a worrisome injury history (last 4 years: 89, 133, 121, 120 games played), and (3) he'll cost a fortune (probably somewhere in the 4-5 yr, $80-120 million range). I mean, that's a triple-whammy of concerns.

 

But then I step back and think a little more. I'm not saying I'm talking myself into it, but I'm talking myself into at least thinking a little more about it. Here's the thought process.

 

His per-162 game averages the past 5 seasons are this:

 

707 pa, 636 ab, 105 r, 196 h, 40 2b, 5 3b, 36 hr, 129 rbi, .307/.364/.549/.912

 

Let's say he only manages to play in 75% of games (120). Pro-rate those numbers from 162 games down to 120 and you get this line:

 

530 pa, 477 ab, 79 r, 147 h, 30 2b, 4 3b, 27 hr, 100 rbi, .307/.364/.549/.912

 

What's a player who puts up those numbers worth? If you had a player put up those numbers over 162 games, that's a really valuable player. It's a guy worth more than 4 WAR.

 

According to (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/linear-dollars-per-win-again/), the cost per win in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 will be:

 

2013 - 5.25 million

2014 - 5.51 million

2015 - 5.79 million

2016 - 6.08 million

2017 - 6.38 million

 

Let's play it conservatively and say that Hamilton is a 3.5 WAR player per season over the next 5 years.

 

2013 - 5.25 million x 3.5 = 18.375m

2014 - 5.51 million x 3.5 = 19.285m

2015 - 5.79 million x 3.5 = 20.265m

2016 - 6.08 million x 3.5 = 21.280m

2017 - 6.38 million x 3.5 = 22.330m

 

That means he's "worth" a 5-year deal for a total of more than $101 million.

 

But there's more. He is only playing 75% of the games. What do you do with the other 25%? A replacement-level corner outfielder (Bobby Kielty, 2006, is a perfect example of a replacement level corner OF) should put up a line roughly this: 270 ab, 35 r, 73 h, 20 2b, 1 3b, 8 hr, 36 rbi, .270/.329/.440/.770.

 

If we gave Kielty the 150 at-bats that Hamilton's absence need to be filled, a replacement-level corner OF should put up something like this:

 

150 ab, 19 r, 41 h, 11 2b, 1 3b, 4 hr, 20 rbi

 

Combine that line with Hamilton's, and you end up with a total LF production of:

 

627 ab, 98 r, 188 h, 41 2b, 5 3b, 31 hr, 120 rbi, .300 avg

 

That's a really, really good corner outfielder. That guy right there is worth around $20 million. And since the replacement-level guy isn't going to cost more than a million bucks a year, we're right in the ballpark financially.

 

So my point is this: even if Hamilton only can give you 120 games, at his ability, he might very well be worth having.

 

It's kind of like talking about Pedro Martinez in his prime. He didn't throw nearly as many innings as guys like Randy Johnson, but Pedro was SO GOOD that you could fill those missing innings in with a guy off the street and the cumulative totals were still better than any other pitcher in baseball. Hamilton isn't Pedro circa 1999-2000, because those years were among the very best in the history of the sport, but the principle is the same.

 

So I'm not saying the Sox should sign Hamilton. I am saying, however, that they should definitely kick the tires on him and give him serious consideration.

[Designated Hater]

No.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guaranteed contracts and known relapsing substance abusers do not go hand in hand. Especially in an area of the world where alcohol abuse is the highest of practically anywhere. Boston is a bad, bad mix for Hamilton. NYC would be a close second

[ibot2much]

No long term--- expensive--- soon to decline---- free agents.

 

I look at ARod and laugh. The Yanks got taken big time with him, yet teams keep bidding on them ( yea..talking to you Theo)

[Laser Show]

No long term--- expensive--- soon to decline---- free agents.

 

I look at ARod and laugh. The Yanks got taken big time with him, yet teams keep bidding on them ( yea..talking to you Theo)

 

The Yankees were smart to trade for him in 2004. 10/252M seemed expensive at the time, but if there were no opt out clause, it would've actually ended up being a good contract for the entire life of it. They shot themselves in the foot when they agreed to 10 additional years, at an even higher salary when he was 32. Nobody else would've come close to that, and they could've gotten him signed a LOT cheaper or for less years.

[Dojji]

Guaranteed contracts and known relapsing substance abusers do not go hand in hand. Especially in an area of the world where alcohol abuse is the highest of practically anywhere. Boston is a bad, bad mix for Hamilton. NYC would be a close second

 

I agree. Hamilton needs to spend his career somewhere out in the midwest being the franchise player of a decent team that can help him stay dry.

[Bellhorn04]

Hamilton seems like a candidate for a contract with built-in protection in the form of options that vest based on games played or some such thing.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

No.

[ibot2much]

The Yankees were smart to trade for him in 2004. 10/252M seemed expensive at the time, but if there were no opt out clause, it would've actually ended up being a good contract for the entire life of it. They shot themselves in the foot when they agreed to 10 additional years, at an even higher salary when he was 32. Nobody else would've come close to that, and they could've gotten him signed a LOT cheaper or for less years.

 

I can't agree that even the first 10 would have been worth that kind of money....So he would have gone 2004-2014 on the first contract?? Nah....and he is such an unlikable s***.

 

 

 

Now Joe Mauer is on waivers....... way too much money on his contract too....but he has a LOT going for him

[Laser Show]

I can't agree that even the first 10 would have been worth that kind of money....So he would have gone 2004-2014 on the first contract?? Nah....and he is such an unlikable s***.

 

 

 

Now Joe Mauer is on waivers....... way too much money on his contract too....but he has a LOT going for him

 

The first contract would've been 2001-2010, when he posted a combined 68.9 WAR, or about 7 per season. He opted out of the first 10 year deal after the 2007 season. The 2nd contract was the killer one.

 

 

Mauer has 6 years left at 23M per. Ouch.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't agree that even the first 10 would have been worth that kind of money....So he would have gone 2004-2014 on the first contract?? Nah....and he is such an unlikable s***.

 

If not for the opt-out, A-Rod's 10 year $252 million contract would have run from 2001 to 2010, 2004 to 2010 with the Yankees.

[Dojji]

Hamilton seems like a candidate for a contract with built-in protection in the form of options that vest based on games played or some such thing.

 

Mmm. And note that the team can suspend him so he misses his quota if he becomes too much of an alcohol problem. That might help. But Boston is still a horrible town for him to play in. Especially if there's alcohol in the clubhouse at any point, live games or not.

[ibot2much]

Thanks Laser and Bell for the Arod info.

[SoxSport]

Keep in mind the Yankees have no real budget, since their local cable TV money is out of sight. If they want a player, they buy him. Simple. It's amazing they haven't won every year, but player performance and injuries are unpredictable. Depends on serendipidity. They might be interested in Mauer or Hamilton. Most LHd hitters hit better in Yankee stadium. Hamilton is a risk, but the Yankees have taken risks on problem players before.

 

The Yankees are always leverage against a team trying to re-sign a player. They drive up the price, as they have since the advent of free agency. The Players Union best friend.

[Divinity]

Keep in mind the Yankees have no real budget, since their local cable TV money is out of sight. If they want a player, they buy him.

 

This is totally false, Hal Steinbrenner even stated earlier this year he wants to keep the team around the luxury tax limit at 189m for the next few years.

 

Hal Steinbrenner said he wants to lower the team’s player payroll to $189 million over the next few years to avoid paying baseball’s luxury tax.

Under Major League Baseball ’s new collective bargaining agreement, the tax threshold will be $189 million during the 2013 season. Teams that spend more on players have to pay an escalating levy based on how far they are above the salary limit.

“I’m looking at it as a goal, but my goals are normally considered requirements,” Steinbrenner told reporters at the Yankees’ spring training camp in Tampa, Florida , according to MLB.com. “Is it a requirement with baseball that we be at 189? No, it’s not a requirement. But that is going to be the luxury- tax threshold, and that’s where I want to be.”

Steinbrenner said the Yankees’ payroll this season is projected to be about $210 million, the highest in the majors. Their payroll was just more than $212 million last year, when they paid a luxury tax of $13.9 million, the Associated Press said.

“I’m a finance geek,” Steinbrenner said. “That’s my background. Budgets matter, and balance sheets matter. If you do well on the player-development side, and you have a good farm system, you don’t need a $220 million payroll. You can field every bit as good a team with young talent.”

The Yankees have had baseball’s highest player payroll for the past 10 years. Their lone World Series title in that span came in 2009.

“I’m just not convinced we need to be as high as we’ve been in the past to field a championship-caliber team,” Steinbrenner said.

[Station 13]

This is totally false, Hal Steinbrenner even stated earlier this year he wants to keep the team around the luxury tax limit at 189m for the next few years.

 

2014 Yankees need:

 

2B

CF

RF

SS

DH

SP1 and 2, Closer, relievers

 

I don't see how they could be under 2014 current budgets plan.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think anybody is going to hand out a fully guaranteed $175 million to a player who is battling substance demons every day of his life. I think we might see some creative contract offers.

[Brennan]

No. Not time to hand out big dollar contracts for shady characters like Hamilton. By the way, why would anyone think that a guy who puts heroin in his body would say no to PED's?

[rjortiz]

2014 Yankees need:

 

2B

CF

RF

SS

DH

SP1 and 2, Closer, relievers

 

I don't see how they could be under 2014 current budgets plan.

 

Robinson Cano is going to get a big contract extension by the Yankees. They'll be OK at 2B

[Emmz]

so he doesn't touch the stuff in years, but he's still battling heroin addiction. Hahaha

[mvp 78]

No thanks. Don't need him killing any Boston fans.

[Behindenemylines]

I know Hamilton wouldn't take it, but if he would, would you do a 2 year deal at between 20-25 million per season? The problem with these 20+ million contract is that they are 6 and 7 years long. Those our problems waiting to happen.

[DocHolliday]

So my point is this: even if Hamilton only can give you 120 games, at his ability, he might very well be worth having.

 

It's kind of like talking about Pedro Martinez in his prime. He didn't throw nearly as many innings as guys like Randy Johnson, but Pedro was SO GOOD that you could fill those missing innings in with a guy off the street and the cumulative totals were still better than any other pitcher in baseball. Hamilton isn't Pedro circa 1999-2000, because those years were among the very best in the history of the sport, but the principle is the same.

 

So I'm not saying the Sox should sign Hamilton. I am saying, however, that they should definitely kick the tires on him and give him serious consideration.

 

My hope is that the Sox kick the tires in Hamilton and use their influence to drive his price up for the Rangers or whichever other team is willing to take a flyer on him.

 

Having seen him play on a regular basis since 08, I can tell you the issues people have with him are not out of context. What people from the outside may not realize about him is that he can be an incredibly streaky hitter. Ive mentioned it on other threads, but he has had month long stretches where he has done nothing with the bat. Here in Texas, the media and fans are much more forgiving than in Boston and his low streaks are not as noticed as they would be in Boston. More recently, he went through a horrible month of July and it garnered more attention than his past droughts because more people here are following the Rangers.

 

In Boston, where following and constructively criticizing the team are part of the baseball culture (rather than artificially present in good times here in Texas), Hamilton will get questioned and scrutinized much more heavily than at any point in his time in Texas. Not to mention he will be paid to be a leader and, similar to Agon, he does much better when there are leaders around him and he can just go out and play.

 

Coupled with the other issues that have already been addressed in this thread, Hamilton would be an expensive and immovable mistake for a player that is already leaving his prime.

 

The only exception I would make would be if he was willing to sign at less 5 years with an AAV of $15 M or less, which he won't do.

[Behindenemylines]

Good point on the stretch in Texas where he was in a slump. The media and fans wouldn't treat that to kindly if he making big $$$$$$. Think of what Crawford went through last year. Big things are expected out of big contracts in Boston.

[Station 13]

Robinson Cano is going to get a big contract extension by the Yankees. They'll be OK at 2B

 

But their 'budget' plan?

[DocHolliday]

Good point on the stretch in Texas where he was in a slump. The media and fans wouldn't treat that to kindly if he making big $$$$$$. Think of what Crawford went through last year. Big things are expected out of big contracts in Boston.

 

Crawford is a great example of what could happen to Hamilton if he came to Boston. Think about it...

 

For years, Crawford killed the Red Sox while he with the Rays and put up above average numbers on a team that nobody cared about (as did Hamilton, until the Rangers started winning and people began to care about them). Crawford comes to Boston where he is paid to be a $20 M, average 5 WAR player similar to what the OP suggested a player getting paid that much is worth. And it turns out to be a colossal mistake. Fans, media, other teams fans all came to the same conclusion "wow, he really doesn't fit what their team is all about and many of his skills will be reduced. His superb defense and range in the OF won't be needed with LF at Fenway. They are a team that doesnt like to steal all the time when they get players on at the top of the order. Don't they already have that type of player in Ellsbury at half the cost, etc"

 

While Hamilton is far more gifted and talented than Crawford will ever be, like Crawford, can't be expected to consistently fit the mold of what the Red Sox do best when they win. He has injury issues, he will be north of 32 years old by the early part of next season, he has documented issues of addiction relapses, etc.

 

It doesn't take a "private investigator" to figure out the risk that comes with Hamilton.

[resdubwhite]

My hope is that the Sox kick the tires in Hamilton and use their influence to drive his price up for the Rangers or whichever other team is willing to take a flyer on him.

 

.

 

I'm not so sure thats what didn't happen with Crawford. And then they went. Well actually we can get him.

 

Add another year on. Then Bang.

the trick to that is the discipline. THe discipline to walk away and actually not think.

 

"hey, we can do this. We'll be ok. "

[Laser Show]

Even though I'm against a Hamilton signing, I'm aware that we have no true 3, 4, or 5 hitter if Ortiz walks. Ellsbury and Pedroia are best suited 1-2. Salty, Lavarnway, Ciriaco, Iggy, Kalish, Ross (if he comes back), Pods, Aviles are all 6-9 hitters. Ross could hit 5th, but I think we're better off with him hitting 6th.

 

I think we need to explore a Justin Upton trade. He'd be the perfect #3/4 in our lineup. I've gotten to see him a few times down here and he'd thrive in Boston. He's young, he's got power, and he's not BJ. If we could trade for Upton and an Ace, I think we're right back in the hunt for the division or wild card next year.

[DocHolliday]

I'm not so sure thats what didn't happen with Crawford. And then they went. Well actually we can get him.

 

Add another year on. Then Bang.

the trick to that is the discipline. THe discipline to walk away and actually not think.

 

"hey, we can do this. We'll be ok. "

 

If that was their strategy with Crawford, their strategy with Hamilton should start with 4 years $15 M. If the market doesn't develop, you sign him at a reasonable rate for short years. If the market develops as it should, you maintain your due diligence and maintain yourself as a presence.

 

I can tell you that despite the reports of Profar taking over at 2nd and Kinsler moving to the OF, they will make a push for Hamilton to stay. I'm not sold on Kinsler being an option in LF or CF, both of which are a lot of ground to cover in Arlington. Cruz is under contract for next season already, and they already have the DH spot used by Young and Beltre when he needs a day off.

[mvp 78]

Good point on the stretch in Texas where he was in a slump. The media and fans wouldn't treat that to kindly if he making big $$$$$$. Think of what Crawford went through last year. Big things are expected out of big contracts in Boston.

 

What did CC go through? He was treated with kid gloves (by media and fans) the whole time he was here.