Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Where there is smoke there is usually fire. It seems like this question is coming up a lot lately.

 

He is definitely gathering info to make a sale, if the price is right. He's a businessman, and the only owner in sports who wouldnt have sold their team was Steinbrenner. Now that he's dead, I guarantee that every owner in baseball has their price at which they could be bought out

[Bellhorn04]

Where there is smoke there is usually fire. It seems like this question is coming up a lot lately.

 

Maybe because it's sexy. :dunno:

[Palodios]

I mentioned this in the MLB topic as well... but DAAMN, what an offseason for Cleveland.

 

They just picked up Bourn for 4/48.

[SoxSport]

I wouldn't take seriously anything Henry said today. They are clearly aiming for respectability the next two years--which is why they spent all that money signing veterans. Part of that is selling tickets, maybe a part is keeping the team attractive for a possible sale. The prospects will get more seasoning in the minors, unless there are injuries.

[wyo-sox]

I mentioned this in the MLB topic as well... but DAAMN, what an offseason for Cleveland.

 

They just picked up Bourn for 4/48.

 

I would not have guessed that in a million years. Wow.

[jung]

Cleveland must believe that the AL Central is vulnerable and they are likely right if that is the case. They are at least giving themselves a shot at pushing past the division's top teams. As a division, maybe those teams have done more to improve themselves in one offseason than any other grouping of teams. However none of them has gone off and done a Toronto for example. That is setting up to be a real dog fight.

[BSN07]

Cleveland must believe that the AL Central is vulnerable and they are likely right if that is the case. They are at least giving themselves a shot at pushing past the division's top teams. As a division, maybe those teams have done more to improve themselves in one offseason than any other grouping of teams. However none of them has gone off and done a Toronto for example. That is setting up to be a real dog fight.

 

The AL Central is wide open imo. Minnesota seems like the only below average team. KC, CWS and Cleveland are all about the same talent wise. Detroit is above the rest but not by leaps and bounds. They are one or two key injuries from being right in the middle of the pact.

 

I can not remember a time that the AL divisions were so close top to bottom. There are no clear favorites and only a few teams considered to have little chance at competing(Houston and Minnesota are the only two that come to mind that I would be "surprised" to see make the playoffs).

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

KC is not in the same level with the White Sox and Guardians.

[jacksonianmarch]

KC is not in the same level with the White Sox and Guardians.

 

KC has an outside chance of being respectable this yr. Shields and Guthrie give them a decent 1-2 punch. Davis slides into the 3 hole, Chen into the 4 and Hochevar into the 5 with Mendoza and Duffy on the sidelines. They should also see Felipe Paulino return after the ASB and he was lights out until he blew out his elbow. They have the makings of a pitching staff and their pen is stout. I think they will surprise a few teams, especially if they see a rebound from Hosmer and a full season of production from Moustakas. I think they will be very exciting

[jung]

While KC may not have made as many changes as say Cleveland nor started with as good a baseline as Chicago or Detroit, that division still looks like an absolute dog fight. If KC can fit itself into it somehow, those teams are going to beat each other silly. That usually works to the eventual division winner's favor though as they become battle tested as part of the process.

[Palodios]

KC has an outside chance of being respectable this yr. Shields and Guthrie give them a decent 1-2 punch. Davis slides into the 3 hole, Chen into the 4 and Hochevar into the 5 with Mendoza and Duffy on the sidelines. They should also see Felipe Paulino return after the ASB and he was lights out until he blew out his elbow. They have the makings of a pitching staff and their pen is stout. I think they will surprise a few teams, especially if they see a rebound from Hosmer and a full season of production from Moustakas. I think they will be very exciting

 

Kansas City overhauled their starting pitching even more than you mentioned. They also added Ervin Santana. Shields, Guthrie, Davis, and Santana will be a pretty huge boost to their rotation.

[Dojji]

Yes and their defense is really solid with good players at SS, C and CF if I recall correctly. I would kill to have Salvador Perez in particular on this team.

 

Their offense is iffy, but it won't have to hit that much to make them relevant with that staff and that D.

[jung]

I am really interested to see how KC handles its lineup. It does appear that they believe they can and will compete in that division. That said I don't wonder if Cleveland's surge in signings caught KC a little by surprise coming a little later than one might have expected. At one point KC may have been able to convince itself that it had done enough to maybe slot itself into the 3 spot in that division and would fight for better. At this point it looks more like KC is fighting for the 3 spot and fighting for better.

 

Will they stand pat? Will they make some moves within their system hoping to blend up some players to make this fight? Might be one of the best attendance seasons that division has seen in awhile.

 

Poor Minnesota must be wondering what the hell happened.

[SoxSport]

Cleveland must believe that the AL Central is vulnerable and they are likely right if that is the case. They are at least giving themselves a shot at pushing past the division's top teams. As a division, maybe those teams have done more to improve themselves in one offseason than any other grouping of teams. However none of them has gone off and done a Toronto for example. That is setting up to be a real dog fight.

 

The Guardians suddenly have a sugar daddy.

[SoxSport]

I see Papi is mouthing off against Valentine again. Keeping the Boston media employed. Well, Valentine did the same, too. Touche, Papi.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I don't care how they look on "paper" with this rotation. I don't expect them to turn it around and fight the White Sox or Tigers for a playoff spot. I agree the offense is "iffy" but they won't be a threat imo. What they do have a chance of doing is being above .500, god knows how long Royals fans have last seen that. I'm willing to put a sig or avatar bet against anyone that they won't make the playoffs.

[FredLynn]

I don't care how they look on "paper" with this rotation. I don't expect them to turn it around and fight the White Sox or Tigers for a playoff spot. I agree the offense is "iffy" but they won't be a threat imo. What they do have a chance of doing is being above .500, god knows how long Royals fans have last seen that. I'm willing to put a sig or avatar bet against anyone that they won't make the playoffs.

 

Google "Boston Red Sox ZIPS predictions" (they won't let me post links here until I get to 15 posts). The offense will be formidable, most likely. I think they will easily finish in the top third in the AL in runs scored and OPS.

[SoxSport]

It boils down to pitching. In all the divisions. The teams that get the best pitching will come out on top.

All those millionaire hitters don't mean squat unless you have a few millionaire pitchers--who can earn their pay.

[Dojji]

I am really interested to see how KC handles its lineup. It does appear that they believe they can and will compete in that division. That said I don't wonder if Cleveland's surge in signings caught KC a little by surprise coming a little later than one might have expected. At one point KC may have been able to convince itself that it had done enough to maybe slot itself into the 3 spot in that division and would fight for better. At this point it looks more like KC is fighting for the 3 spot and fighting for better.

 

Will they stand pat? Will they make some moves within their system hoping to blend up some players to make this fight? Might be one of the best attendance seasons that division has seen in awhile.

 

Poor Minnesota must be wondering what the hell happened.

 

I have to wonder about a possible deal with KC centered around Brock Holt and one of their (IIRC pretty numerous) bullpen arms. Johnny Giavotella was supposed to be their guy. He hasn't even been close to good enough to this point, and Chris Getz wouldn't be the starting 2B for very many teams. They have to be looking for a solution at second base.

 

Regardless, I take KC seriously as a legit dark horse team this year. They're one more serious hitter, or serious step forward from one of their existing hitters, away from really starting to win some ballgames.

 

THe Royals FO would probably commit murder if that's what it took to bring Dustin Pedroia to KC. He or a player like him are precisely what they need precisely where they need it. If the Pedroia trade rumors last year had any legs to them at all, KC would have to be a bigtime candidate for a destination. They're probably the one team with enough of a desparate need, and enough really legitimate top prospect stock, to possibly get a deal done.

[a700hitter]

Not sure what this is about... not many players left on the board.

 

I can't imagine what moves Henry could have been alluding to. I don't think we will be adding help to the starting pitching. There is little left from which to chose. Plus, Cherries is on record saying that he thinks the starting pitching is much improved.

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't take seriously anything Henry said today. They are clearly aiming for respectability the next two years--which is why they spent all that money signing veterans. Part of that is selling tickets, maybe a part is keeping the team attractive for a possible sale. The prospects will get more seasoning in the minors, unless there are injuries.

None of the guys we got will sell tickets. With the lack of interesting players, they will need to win to sell tickets.

[Orange Juiced]

None of the guys we got will sell tickets. With the lack of interesting players, they will need to win to sell tickets.

 

Which, I hope, is the goal anyway. (to win, that is)

[a700hitter]

Which, I hope, is the goal anyway. (to win, that is)

Winning is every teams goal, but this roster doesn't shape up as a winner.

[BSN07]

I finally figured it out, a700 is John Henry!! As long as they are sexy and sell tickets, it's all good.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Lmao

[Orange Juiced]

Winning is every teams goal, but this roster doesn't shape up as a winner.

 

I think it'll be better than most people are giving them credit for. What I really think they're doing is this: They see that their system is stocked with a lot of very talented prospects, but they think they're a couple of years away. So what to do until then? Rush them to the majors? I don't think they want to do that. Go out and get high-priced players on long contracts? Nope.

 

What they did was fill the gap with guys who are pretty good baseball players. They got a decent, dependable starting pitcher, a really good reliever, and some position players that should make for a pretty good lineup. Will they be the best team in the league? I seriously doubt it. Will they be competitive? Yes, I think they will, and they might even make the playoffs. But they have constructed a team that should be worth paying attention to over the next couple of years, which buys them time for the young stud prospects to develop. Then we'll see the next era of Red Sox baseball ushered in.

[jung]

Listening to LL this morning and a number of the interviews the past few days....if there is one thing long term that bothers me about V last year its the fact that the goons that picked him are still here. Some of us asked this question at the time. How was it possible for those guys to sit V down in front of them, have that interview and at the end of it conclude that "V is our guy"? Did V bring a hypnotist with him to the interview?

 

Having seen V throughout his career, I could see him being attractive at some point as a potential Manager but some guys just don't wear well. V does not wear well. As he has aged he has become more and more of an oddity and I just don't understand how they did not see that.

 

Anyway...welcome Mr Farrell....warts and all he has to be tons better.

[a700hitter]

I think it'll be better than most people are giving them credit for. What I really think they're doing is this: They see that their system is stocked with a lot of very talented prospects, but they think they're a couple of years away. So what to do until then? Rush them to the majors? I don't think they want to do that. Go out and get high-priced players on long contracts? Nope.

 

What they did was fill the gap with guys who are pretty good baseball players. They got a decent, dependable starting pitcher, a really good reliever, and some position players that should make for a pretty good lineup. Will they be the best team in the league? I seriously doubt it. Will they be competitive? Yes, I think they will, and they might even make the playoffs. But they have constructed a team that should be worth paying attention to over the next couple of years, which buys them time for the young stud prospects to develop. Then we'll see the next era of Red Sox baseball ushered in.

I disagree. Their efforts were misdirected. If they wanted to field a competitive team, they needed to strengthen and improve the starting pitching. They did not. This is a 79-84 win team most likely. If everything breaks right, maybe 88 wins. If there are one or two injuries to the starting pitching, it will all unravel again like last year. This team may sniff the second wild card, but it will be an uninteresting team that will have trouble staying over .500.

[Dojji]

I actually think they did a fair bit to strengthen their rotation. However, they didn't add to it on top, which is going f frustrate fans like a700 who don't get baseball, expect the GM to come up with a way to make a team a sure thing, and set themselves up for frustration on top of frustration when that doesn't happen.

[Orange Juiced]

I disagree. Their efforts were misdirected. If they wanted to field a competitive team, they needed to strengthen and improve the starting pitching. They did not. This is a 79-84 win team most likely. If everything breaks right, maybe 88 wins. If there are one or two injuries to the starting pitching, it will all unravel again like last year. This team may sniff the second wild card, but it will be an uninteresting team that will have trouble staying over .500.

 

Well certainly your bolded statement is true. They cannot survive injuries to Lester or Buchholz.

 

I do think their starting pitching will be better, and here's why I think that.

 

(1) Lester is a better pitcher than he demonstrated last year. At 29, he's far from washed up. For four straight years (2008-11) he never had an era above 3.47, never had a whip higher than 1.27. Then all of a sudden in 2012 he puts up a craptastic 4.82 era with a 1.38 whip and a bad (for him) k/9 rate of 7.3. Did he suddenly forget how to pitch? Did he lose his stuff? Or did he just have a really bad year, which is something that happens to a lot of really, really good pitchers at one point or another? Over those four years he averaged this line:

 

16-8, 203.0 ip, 196 k, 3.33 era, 135 era+, 8.7 k/9

 

That's a really good starting pitcher in the AL East. I don't know if he'll do that this year, but since that's far more normative over his career than what he showed in 2012, I expect him to be closer to those numbers than to his 2012 numbers. So I see improvement from Lester.

 

(2) Buchholz is also better than he showed in 2012. In the three years leading up to 2012 he had an era of 3.10, an era+ of 143, a whip of 1.27, and a k/9 rate of 6.4. That's better than what he put up last year (4.56 era, 95 era+, 1.33 whip, 6.1 k/9). Injuries will always seem to be an issue with him, but can he give the Sox a better performance than that? Yes, I firmly believe he can. I see improvement from Buchholz.

 

(3) John Lackey and Ryan Dempster have to be better than the slop the Sox threw out there last year from the pu-pu platter of Cook, Beckett, and Matsuzaka. Those three combined gave the Sox this "production":

 

50 gs, 266 ip (5.1 ip per start), 5.92 era, 1.45 whip

 

Ok, that's godawful. The 2011 Lackey was actually worse than that, but we know now that he was pitching that season with a shredded elbow. He is healthy now and many pitchers pitch better post-TJ surgery than they did before. I don't necessarily expect Lackey to be what he was in Anaheim, but if he is what he was in 2010 (215 ip, 4.40 era, 1.42 whip), that is significantly better than that Cook/Beckett/Matsuzaka trio.

 

Now Dempster...I don't love him here, I'm on record with that. But do I think he'll be better than 5.92 era and 1.45 whip? Yes, absolutely. Since he became a starter in 2008, he's put up these lines:

 

2008 - 206.2 ip, 2.96 era, 1.21 whip, 8.1 k/9

2009 - 200.0 ip, 3.65 era, 1.31 whip, 7.7 k/9

2010 - 215.1 ip, 3.85 era, 1.32 whip, 8.7 k/9

2011 - 202.1 ip, 4.80 era, 1.45 whip, 8.5 k/9

2012 - 173.0 ip, 3.38 era, 1.19 whip, 8.0 k/9

 

In his 2012 season he struggled in Texas, putting up a 5.09 era, 1.44 whip, and 9.1 k/9. So that's the red flag for me. But even if you just took his 2012 numbers from Texas and that was his pitching line for 2013, it would still be much better than what Cook/Beckett/Matsuzaka did in 2012! The era is almost a full run better!! And that is Dempster at his worst. I don't see him being *that* bad here. I see him being mediocre. In fact, I see the Lackey/Dempster combo as being mediocre. But mediocre is a hell of a lot better than what Cook/Beckett/Matsuzaka gave the Sox in 2012.

 

Conclusion: Lackey + Dempster will represent a significant improvement over Cook/Beckett/Matsuzaka.

 

(4) That leaves us with Doubront. I know you're not a big fan of Felix, and that's ok. I happen to be a little more bullish on him, as you know. I don't think he'll end up being the next Sandy Koufax, but he proved that he has some legit tools with which to work. As a rookie, pitching 161.0 ip with an era of 4.86 and a k/9 rate of 9.3 shows some promise. He has ability. Do I think he'll give the Sox an era of 3.50? No. Do I see him improving his command and giving the Sox an era around league average? Yes, I do. Like Lackey and Dempster, I think he'll be an average starting pitcher. Nothing great, but an improvement (albeit slightly) on last year's performance).

 

Long story short, barring the injuries that you mentioned (which are always a concern), I think the Sox' starting pitching should be improved *at every single spot in the rotation* over last year. And in some spots, the improvement should be significant.

 

They are not the second coming of the famous Orioles' rotation of 1971, but they should be improved over last year, and probably even significantly so.