Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

What makes you so sure that Lackey doesn't have a train wreck season.

 

If that is the case, I think the Red Sox are probably at the point where they'll be willing to dump him. Between beer-gate, dumping his wife with cancer, bitching to the media, having a historically bad 6.41 ERA in 2011, showing up his defense while on the mound, and Tommy John surgery, this is probably his last chance.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If you don't add talent to your team, you don't get appreciably better. Performances go up and down, but not enough to make up 20 games. We have improved only our bullpen. I think they could make 10 games difference. I peg this team for 79-84 wins. No way is it a 90 win team unless we play the Stros 60 times.

 

That's not true. Simply not true.

 

Adding Ortiz for 72 games makes us better.

Adding Middlebrooks for 87 games makes us better.

Adding a healthy Ellsbury for 90 games makes us better

Adding Ryan Dempster makes us better, assuming he replaces Cook/DiceK/Stewart.

Lackey, at worst, should replace Beckett's 2012 production. Wash.

Lester and Buch should return to their career levels.

Doubront will likely take progress his career. He had very good peripherals last year and a sub-4 xFIP, so he will likely improve.

 

I'm just saying. Just getting healthy and performing to their talent levels rather than 1/2 of their talent levels will improve this club tremendously.

 

Not to mention all the BobbyV s*** is gone now, which takes away daily scrutiny and they can just go play.

 

Jackso you can laugh all you want. It's going to be funny when your sig says you're my bitch.

[SoxFanForsyth]

What makes you so sure that Lackey doesn't have a train wreck season.

 

I'm not sure he won't.

 

But with guys like Webster, De La Rosa, and Morales waiting in the wings, they won't just sit and watch him go out and puke every 5 days like they did in 2011.

 

This is why the SP depth is so important this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Lester and Buch should return to their career levels.

 

This is the crucial statement right here and the main reason for uncertainty.

 

Buch doesn't really have a 'career level'. Last year was his second full season. He's had one good healthy full season in his career.

 

Lester not only pitched poorly last year, he pitched poorly in the last month of 2011. So it's a bad full season plus a bad month he's coming off.

 

These two major X factors are the foundation of the team's success or lack of this year.

[Bellhorn04]

It's unfathomable what has happened to Lester since September/11. We can't just write off last year as an off-year without also considering that in the crucial last month of 2011 he was just as awful as he was last year. In his last 7 months and 237 innings he has a 4.90 ERA. And none of this that we know of can be attributed to injury.

[a700hitter]

That's not true. Simply not true.

 

Adding Ortiz for 72 games makes us better.

Adding Middlebrooks for 87 games makes us better.

Adding a healthy Ellsbury for 90 games makes us better

Adding Ryan Dempster makes us better, assuming he replaces Cook/DiceK/Stewart.

Lackey, at worst, should replace Beckett's 2012 production. Wash.

Lester and Buch should return to their career levels.

Doubront will likely take progress his career. He had very good peripherals last year and a sub-4 xFIP, so he will likely improve.

 

I'm just saying. Just getting healthy and performing to their talent levels rather than 1/2 of their talent levels will improve this club tremendously.

 

Not to mention all the BobbyV s*** is gone now, which takes away daily scrutiny and they can just go play.

 

Jackso you can laugh all you want. It's going to be funny when your sig says you're my bitch.

We will just have to agree to disagree on this. I do not ascribe to the philosophy that a s***** team can turn into a playoff team without adding talent but by having better injury experience. The 2012 team was a very s***** team. They weren't a team that just experienced bad luck. They were s***** in almost every aspect of the game. Better health is not going to be enough. I heard this same argument last year. People argued that the 2011 team was beset by critical injuries that wouldn't happen again in 2012. A healthy 2013 team will not pick up 20 games without adding talent. It will top out at 84 wins. If they get some key injuries, they will be a dead last 90+ loss team again. BTW, Ortiz is still not running. If he goes down, 100 losses would not be out of the question.

[Palodios]

If you don't add talent to your team, you don't get appreciably better. Performances go up and down, but not enough to make up 20 games. We have improved only our bullpen. I think they could make 10 games difference. I peg this team for 79-84 wins. No way is it a 90 win team unless we play the Stros 60 times.

 

I believe that the 2012 team was a .500 team pre-trade. The majority of the players who have been signed this offseason have replaced players of similar levels of production, with a few exceptions:

 

Victorino replaces garbage.

Ellsbury replaces garbage.

Bailey can't possibly have a worse season in 2013.

Hanrahan, Uehara and Tazawa are replacing garbage in the bullpen.

Morales and Aceves replace garbage in swing/spot starter roles.

 

The depth is also better at pretty much every position -- De La Rosa/Webster/Wilson/Lavarnway/Iglesias/Brentz/Gomez will all be waiting in AAA. Maybe Bogaertz, Bradley, Barnes will make contributions. Wright, Britton, Mortensen, Holt, Kalish aren't phenomenal options, but you might get lucky.

[a700hitter]

I believe that the 2012 team was a .500 team pre-trade. The majority of the players who have been signed this offseason have replaced players of similar levels of production, with a few exceptions:

 

Victorino replaces garbage.

Ellsbury replaces garbage.

Bailey can't possibly have a worse season in 2013.

Hanrahan, Uehara and Tazawa are replacing garbage in the bullpen.

Morales and Aceves replace garbage in swing/spot starter roles.

 

The depth is also better at pretty much every position -- De La Rosa/Webster/Wilson/Lavarnway/Iglesias/Brentz/Gomez will all be waiting in AAA. Maybe Bogaertz, Bradley, Barnes will make contributions. Wright, Britton, Mortensen, Holt, Kalish aren't phenomenal options, but you might get lucky.

I agree with most of this. Our pen is the most improved part of our team. Victorino is replacing Cody Ross. He was pretty good, definitely not garbage.

 

Pre-trade the team was not a .500 team. They were 7 games under.

 

The starting pitching is weak and thin. We added nothing after 2011 and we added only Dempster after 2012. That will not be enough.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I have a question for you Ted.

 

Why did the Sox go from an 90 win team in 2011 to a 69 win team in 2012? The loss of Lackey? The loss of Varitek? Wakefield?

 

If all results come from turnover, then how did the Sox go from, what should have been a PS team but ended up still at 90 wins to a 69 win team?

[Palodios]

I agree with most of this. Our pen is the most improved part of our team. Victorino is replacing Cody Ross. He was pretty good, definitely not garbage.

Weird, usually the way this works is that you call a player garbage, and I'm the one defending them.

 

My impression is that Gomes will replace most of Ross's production, and Victorino will replace some combination of Sweeney, Darnell Mcdonald, and Byrd. That is a huge bump.

 

Pre-trade the team was not a .500 team. They were 7 games under.

 

The starting pitching is weak and thin. We added nothing after 2011 and we added only Dempster after 2012. That will not be enough.

 

The Red Sox have not added any elite talent to the rotation. However, the guys they have for depth are going to perform better than the combination of Weiland/Miller/ Bedard/Bard/Cook etc. I believe that the back end of the rotation will improve from terrible to mediocre. They should be able to outbash and outclose a good number of teams and pick up wins with different skill sets.

[Palodios]

 

Why did the Sox go from an 90 win team in 2011 to a 69 win team in 2012? The loss of Lackey? The loss of Varitek? Wakefield?

 

If all results come from turnover, then how did the Sox go from, what should have been a PS team but ended up still at 90 wins to a 69 win team?

 

Papelbon was worth 20 wins. Don't you remember those discussions?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Papelbon was worth 20 wins. Don't you remember those discussions?

 

Haha exactly.

 

It's a very valid question. If the Sox went from 90 wins to 69 wins, what was the reasoning?

 

The answer is underperformance and injuries, both of which are items that correct themselves without acquisitions.

[Lucienbel]

Weird, usually the way this works is that you call a player garbage, and I'm the one defending them.

 

My impression is that Gomes will replace most of Ross's production, and Victorino will replace some combination of Sweeney, Darnell Mcdonald, and Byrd. That is a huge bump.

 

 

 

The Red Sox have not added any elite talent to the rotation. However, the guys they have for depth are going to perform better than the combination of Weiland/Miller/ Bedard/Bard/Cook etc. I believe that the back end of the rotation will improve from terrible to mediocre. They should be able to outbash and outclose a good number of teams and pick up wins with different skill sets.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the outfield turns out. Victorino is definitely an improvement over the ever rotating mess that was out there before, even if he doesn't play spectacularly. Gomes replacing Ross's production should be the interesting part. He has a good shot at that happening, especially if he ends up with the same home field fortune that Ross had last year. However, it will be interesting to see what they do against right handed pitching.

 

The bullpen has definitely improved for this season and I have a lot more faith that they can stay consistent. Plus, there's some options on ways to do things that didn't exist last year. If something bad happens they'll likely be able to band-aid it for long enough.

[mvp 78]

Haha exactly.

 

It's a very valid question. If the Sox went from 90 wins to 69 wins, what was the reasoning?

 

The answer is underperformance and injuries, both of which are items that correct themselves without acquisitions.

 

JD Drew, duh...

[Bellhorn04]

Haha exactly.

 

It's a very valid question. If the Sox went from 90 wins to 69 wins, what was the reasoning?

 

The answer is underperformance and injuries, both of which are items that correct themselves without acquisitions.

 

Underperformance doesn't always correct itself. Sometimes players just decline in a big hurry.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Underperformance doesn't always correct itself. Sometimes players just decline in a big hurry.

 

This is extremely rare.

[jung]

Why 90 to 69...

 

Well, while we have tossed around the make up of the team that the Sox finished the season with it is surely true that the end season team would have been lucky to win 69 in a complete season. I would have to think that end season mess was worth five games easy.

 

The starting pitching has surely been deteriorating for the past couple seasons. I suspect that issues with the starting pitching was the largest single contributor to the team's win/lose record differences.

 

I would say second to that, the degree to which the team became unbalanced with to much payroll going into to few bodies was the second largest contributor to the change in win/loss record. It was no longer a team that played together, no longer a team with complimentary parts, no longer had enough money sunk into guys that could even play decently when the guys taking down the big money fell victim to injury and a number of them simply did not play that well.

 

While I don't think any of the other issues that are specific to the Sox rises to the level of honorable mention with regard to the Sox changes in win/loss record I do think there is one other element that is more general....just as the Sox were running into issues a number of AL teams were improving. The gap narrowed between the haves and have nots and over a 162 game season there were fewer pushovers out there for the Sox to steamroll.

 

Anyway I think those three issues are in the main responsible for the change in Sox win/loss record.

[Palodios]

I know this seems to be beating a dead horse... but maybe it is time for the Red Sox to get into serious talks with Kyle Lohse. With reports that the Cardinals have negligible interest in him, it seems like no one wants him. If he could be had for 5-10 million a year, it seems silly to hoard a second round pick for a guy who could push the Red Sox over the top.

[rjortiz]

I know this seems to be beating a dead horse... but maybe it is time for the Red Sox to get into serious talks with Kyle Lohse. With reports that the Cardinals have negligible interest in him, it seems like no one wants him. If he could be had for 5-10 million a year, it seems silly to hoard a second round pick for a guy who could push the Red Sox over the top.

 

Don't worry about it. Chris Hernandez will take care of our pitching woes.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lohse is the definition of an NL pitcher. If he left the friendly confines of Busch without a Dave Duncan disciple keeping him in check, he'd be a mess.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Don't worry about it. Chris Hernandez will take care of our pitching woes.

 

All you are is a troll. Have you ever made a real contribution to this board? I mean other than complaining about our 11th SP.

[Palodios]

Lohse is the definition of an NL pitcher. If he left the friendly confines of Busch without a Dave Duncan disciple keeping him in check, he'd be a mess.

 

I'm talking about 5-10 million, not any more than that.

[mvp 78]

Lose a pick and spend $10M on Lohse? That would be the definition of insanity.

[Palodios]

Lose a pick and spend $10M on Lohse? That would be the definition of insanity.

 

I don't understand why everyone seems to be overrating the value of second round picks. I understand there are slot considerations, but look at the last couple of second round picks for the Red Sox

 

2011: William Jerez

2010: Brandon Workman

2009: Alex Wilson

2008: Derek Gibson

2007: Hunter Morris

2006: Justin Masteron

2005: Jonathan Egan

 

Are these guys really worth losing sleep over?

[Bellhorn04]

The ship has sailed for any name starters coming to town before the season starts. They're going to take a look at the five we have in place and 'go from there'.

[a700hitter]

I don't understand why everyone seems to be overrating the value of second round picks. I understand there are slot considerations, but look at the last couple of second round picks for the Red Sox

 

2011: William Jerez

2010: Brandon Workman

2009: Alex Wilson

2008: Derek Gibson

2007: Hunter Morris

2006: Justin Masteron

2005: Jonathan Egan

 

Are these guys really worth losing sleep over?

Good point.

[Bellhorn04]

It is a little weird that Lohse and Bourn have drawn such little interest. They must feel like they got kicked off the party boat where A Sanchez and BJ Upton are living it up.

[Palodios]

The ship has sailed for any name starters coming to town before the season starts. They're going to take a look at the five we have in place and 'go from there'.

 

There is a point in the offseason where some free agents see their value plummet, and teams that wouldn't touch them start to become interested if the price is right. Now, the price is right. No one thought Lohse was going to get a 5-10 million deal, but maybe now it is a possibility.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a point in the offseason where some free agents see their value plummet, and teams that wouldn't touch them start to become interested if the price is right. Now, the price is right. No one thought Lohse was going to get a 5-10 million deal, but maybe now it is a possibility.

 

You're right, he'll get a deal from someone.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't understand why everyone seems to be overrating the value of second round picks. I understand there are slot considerations, but look at the last couple of second round picks for the Red Sox

 

2011: William Jerez

2010: Brandon Workman

2009: Alex Wilson

2008: Derek Gibson

2007: Hunter Morris

2006: Justin Masteron

2005: Jonathan Egan

 

Are these guys really worth losing sleep over?

 

Well from what I understand, there won't be nearly as many comp round picks which makes the 2nd rounders more valuable (see: Jackie Bradley). I think that's a bit more of the location in the draft you'll be looking at. Plus obviously as you mention slot money is a lot to give up there.