Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Orange Juiced]

Ciriaco is smoke and mirrors man.

 

.352 BABIP fueled run, 2.9% BB% and 17.3% K%.

 

Bill James projects Iggy to be a .240/.285/.283 hitter next year. That's bad, but his defense up the middle is unbelievable.

 

Iglesias posted a WAR of 0.3 last year in 25 games. Ciriaco posted a WAR of 0.9 in 76 games. So, essentially they had the same impact. Except Iglesias hit .118 last year. He's obviously going to get close to doubling that, so to me, he's a better option.

 

Iggy will give you a 2-3 WAR at SS if he plays 150 games.

 

It took Ozzie Smith til he was 29 years of age to reach a batting average of .250 or better, and an ops+ of 85 or more. And yet, for those first six years (ages 23-28), here were his WAR numbers: 3.0, 1.4, 4.9, 0.9, 4.8, and 3.5. On average, a 3.1 WAR player, *without hitting .250 or putting up an OPS+ of 85*.

 

It's entirely possible to be a horrible, horrible hitter and still be a real asset to a team. Now, it must be said, that he stole quite a few bases back in those days: 40, 28, 57, 22, 25, and 34. So if he walked or somehow got a bloop single, there was more than a decent chance it would turn into two bases thanks to a steal. So there's a lot of value there that Iglesias doesn't have.

 

But Iglesias, with his ridiculously good glove, can still be an asset to the Sox even if he only hits around .240, and even if he doesn't steal 30 bases. But if he only hits .190, and steals 5 bases, then he's not much of an asset at all, even if his defense is off the charts. And if his defense somehow slipped, he'd be a disaster.

 

I do think he can eventually get to the .240-.250 range with about 15 sb. If he can do that and be magical with the glove, he'll be a really helpful major league player. But it might take several years for him to get there, and I wonder, with Bogaerts and his 30 hr potential in the pipeline, if the Sox will let Iglesias grow into that kind of offensive player.

[iortiz]

Ciriaco is smoke and mirrors man.

 

.352 BABIP fueled run, 2.9% BB% and 17.3% K%.

 

Bill James projects Iggy to be a .240/.285/.283 hitter next year. That's bad, but his defense up the middle is unbelievable.

 

Iglesias posted a WAR of 0.3 last year in 25 games. Ciriaco posted a WAR of 0.9 in 76 games. So, essentially they had the same impact. Except Iglesias hit .118 last year. He's obviously going to get close to doubling that, so to me, he's a better option.

 

Iggy will give you a 2-3 WAR at SS if he plays 150 games.

 

I do not want Iglesias in our line-up. He needs to learn discipline at bat first.

[jung]

He needs to walk more. Walking more for a guy like Iggy means he has to develop a very good, disciplined eye. Guys will challenge him if they get behind in the count. That is what makes it imperative that he develop a really good eye cause that is the real key to his batting average. Develop a really good eye...get ahead in the count....eventually generate some walks, steal some bases AND eventually he finds himself with pitchers just grooving pitches with 3 ball counts figuring he cannot really hurt them. Then he gets to jump on pitches right down main street. he won't hit them for more than base hits but who cares.

[iortiz]

GM: Red Sox to have large payroll

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8635216/boston-red-sox-gm-team-one-larger-payrolls

[SoxFanForsyth]

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8635216/boston-red-sox-gm-team-one-larger-payrolls

 

He also said that signing "sluggers, pure hitters" often do better in FA contracts than others.

 

To me, all signs indicate that the Sox are very interested in Hamilton and will likely be one of the finalists on him.

 

If you get Hamilton for LF, and Napoli for 1B, you can hide an Iglesias at SS and let his defense be his skillset that helps out our SP and saves some runs.

 

RF, however, would be a position that I'd like to see an upgrade. While I do like Kalish and hope he gets his chance, I'd certainly rather have a proven veteran to mix in there with him.

 

And even more than that - We really, really need a RH bat in the OF. Both Corey Hart and Hunter Pence would be very intriguing options for RF.

[Station 13]

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8635216/boston-red-sox-gm-team-one-larger-payrolls

 

Payroll is already around $90M+ after arbitration without 2OF and SP.

[Palodios]

Just putting it out there, Anibel Sanchez is three full years younger than Hamilton.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just putting it out there, Anibel Sanchez is three full years younger than Hamilton.

 

He's not nearly the impact player that Hamilton is, though. And if he's going to get 5/90 or 5/100 like I'm hearing, I'd much rather throw down an extra $4-5mm AAV and get Hamilton, and then trade Salty + Wilson for Garza and sign Kuroda to a short term deal.

 

By this time next year, we'll have potentially 3 guys in Barnes, Webster, and De La Rosa who can all deliver production consistent with that of Sanchez. Certainly De La Rosa and Webster will be close, Barnes may be 2 years out.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Payroll is already around $90M+ after arbitration without 2OF and SP.

 

Yup. So if they're going to be in the $145-155 range, which still will leave them with loads of flexibility, they've got around $55mm to $65mm to spend.

 

That's why I am starting to think they're going to go hard after Hamilton, Napoli, and Kuroda. That's around $48mm right there in payroll. Then they'll have another $17mm going forward for a RF and 1 more arm. And they'll still be $34mm under the $189 threshold, with a large amount of money coming off the books over the next 2 years.

[iortiz]

Oks... from now, Ben has to perform as doctor operating an open heart situation. Not too many options out there but he has budget and some trade chips, so... time to show that he is a legit MLB GM.

[Orange Juiced]

Yup. So if they're going to be in the $145-155 range, which still will leave them with loads of flexibility, they've got around $55mm to $65mm to spend.

 

That's why I am starting to think they're going to go hard after Hamilton, Napoli, and Kuroda. That's around $48mm right there in payroll. Then they'll have another $17mm going forward for a RF and 1 more arm. And they'll still be $34mm under the $189 threshold, with a large amount of money coming off the books over the next 2 years.

 

A really do not like the idea of a long contract for Hamilton. Anything over 3 years is too much, IMO.

 

That said, he is one of the absolute very best baseball players on planet earth, and even if he only plays 130 games next year, he is a really good bet to put up huge numbers. For at least 2, maybe 3, seasons, he would improve the Red Sox considerably, barring injury or some drug/alcohol-induced relapse (which is, I grant, always a possibility).

 

If they added him and Napoli, put Iglesias at SS, went with a Kalish/Sands platoon in RF (I'd really like to see what Sands could do...he has terrific power), this lineup would be really good:

 

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

LF Hamilton

1b Napoli

DH Ortiz

3b Middlebrooks

RF Kalish/Sands

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

They'd likely still have enough money to get two SP, one of which is a top-tier guy (see: Grienke, Zach).

 

And they could do all this by keeping contracts short, but AAV high, and without giving up prospects, who should be ready in a couple of years.

[iortiz]

A really do not like the idea of a long contract for Hamilton. Anything over 3 years is too much, IMO.

 

That said, he is one of the absolute very best baseball players on planet earth, and even if he only plays 130 games next year, he is a really good bet to put up huge numbers. For at least 2, maybe 3, seasons, he would improve the Red Sox considerably, barring injury or some drug/alcohol-induced relapse (which is, I grant, always a possibility).

 

If they added him and Napoli, put Iglesias at SS, went with a Kalish/Sands platoon in RF (I'd really like to see what Sands could do...he has terrific power), this lineup would be really good:

 

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

LF Hamilton

1b Napoli

DH Ortiz

3b Middlebrooks

RF Kalish/Sands

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

They'd likely still have enough money to get two SP, one of which is a top-tier guy (see: Grienke, Zach).

 

And they could do all this by keeping contracts short, but AAV high, and without giving up prospects, who should be ready in a couple of years.

 

You still need another proved OF. The last 3 are big ?. Sign Ross.

 

On the other hand do not forget that our #1 priority are SPs. 2 SPs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

A really do not like the idea of a long contract for Hamilton. Anything over 3 years is too much, IMO.

 

That said, he is one of the absolute very best baseball players on planet earth, and even if he only plays 130 games next year, he is a really good bet to put up huge numbers. For at least 2, maybe 3, seasons, he would improve the Red Sox considerably, barring injury or some drug/alcohol-induced relapse (which is, I grant, always a possibility).

 

If they added him and Napoli, put Iglesias at SS, went with a Kalish/Sands platoon in RF (I'd really like to see what Sands could do...he has terrific power), this lineup would be really good:

 

CF Ellsbury

2b Pedroia

LF Hamilton

1b Napoli

DH Ortiz

3b Middlebrooks

RF Kalish/Sands

C Lavarnway

SS Iglesias

 

They'd likely still have enough money to get two SP, one of which is a top-tier guy (see: Grienke, Zach).

 

And they could do all this by keeping contracts short, but AAV high, and without giving up prospects, who should be ready in a couple of years.

 

I think it's a good gamble to take to sign Hamilton and look at it like this - You put a very talented team around him this year, and you start infusing your prospects over the next 3 years. Corner OF and 1B are the two most glaring holes that the Sox have in their minor league system right now, so spending big money on those to positions is ok because you're going to be using prospects to fill other holes at cheap rates.

 

So you build a team of Napoli, Hamilton, Kuroda, Garza, and like you said, Kalish/Sands in RF. Then next year, you bring up De La Rosa, Webster, Brentz (RF), Bradley (CF), and Bogaerts (SS). That's 5 players right there at league minimum who will contribute heavily to the Red Sox.

 

And if you win even 1 WS in a 5 year/$120mm deal for Hamilton, it's worth it.

[example1]

Oks... from now, Ben has to perform as doctor operating an open heart situation. Not too many options out there but he has budget and some trade chips, so... time to show that he is a legit magician.

 

Fixed it for you.

 

Sometimes making things appear where they don't exist otherwise is an impossible task. Asking them to get the pieces needed to contend while also not depleting the system for the future is asking too much.

 

Why can't we assume that being conservative in this environment is really making a play for future success?

[iortiz]

Fixed it for you.

 

Sometimes making things appear where they don't exist otherwise is an impossible task. Asking them to get the pieces needed to contend while also not depleting the system for the future is asking too much.

 

Why can't we assume that being conservative in this environment is really making a play for future success?

 

oks, lets wait till 2016...:thumbdown

[Palodios]

He's not nearly the impact player that Hamilton is, though. And if he's going to get 5/90 or 5/100 like I'm hearing, I'd much rather throw down an extra $4-5mm AAV and get Hamilton, and then trade Salty + Wilson for Garza and sign Kuroda to a short term deal.

 

By this time next year, we'll have potentially 3 guys in Barnes, Webster, and De La Rosa who can all deliver production consistent with that of Sanchez. Certainly De La Rosa and Webster will be close, Barnes may be 2 years out.

 

If Sanchez takes a 5 year deal, he's a free agent again at 33. Hamilton is 32 right now.

 

There's a saying in baseball. You can never have too much pitching. Sure, in the best case scenario all three of those guys may be ready for the majors, but if that's the case then Sanchez is still very young and very tradeable.

[Palodios]

Rumors are swirling that the Red Sox are talking about a long term extension with Pedroia. Finally some good news.

[wyo-sox]

Rumors are swirling that the Red Sox are talking about a long term extension with Pedroia. Finally some good news.

 

I would think that may help attract some big name free agents.

[jung]

I think if they did extend Pedey right now that would be terrific......something that would be roundly applauded by Red Sox nation.

[a700hitter]

Fixed it for you.

 

Sometimes making things appear where they don't exist otherwise is an impossible task. Asking them to get the pieces needed to contend while also not depleting the system for the future is asking too much.

 

Why can't we assume that being conservative in this environment is really making a play for future success?

I'm not drinking this KoolAid, and even the FO is not trying to sell us on this.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox interviewing Fletcher for hitting coach

Posted November 15, 2012 03:01 PM

 

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

A few Red Sox notes:

 

• The Sox are interviewing Scott Fletcher for their hitting coach job today. He is the assistant hitting coach in Atlanta. Fletcher, 54, played in the majors from 1981-95 with six teams. He was with the Sox from 1993-94.

It's good to see that Cherries is burning the midnight oil.

[SoxSport]

Sources are saying we are going to make a run for Hamilton.

 

I do not really want his big contract. That is why we did the Dodgers trade. I really think if we resign Ross, sign Napoli, sign Victorino or trade for another OF, sign Drew to compete for the starting SS position, sign a late inning reliever to help Bailey, and sign two guys like Kuroda and Sanchez that we will be a competitve team until some of our prospects are ready.

 

From what Henry said, they did not want to deal AdGon, but had to in order to get rid of the Crawford and Beckett contracts. That means they can absorb one $20 million dollar man in the budget. That doesn't mean it couldn't be a pitcher, but I don't see any studs available this year. Hamilton is the only stud out there, and he comes with some baggage, which may make him available for a reasonable price.

 

I don't see guys like Bourne or Victorino coming to Boston--they aren't a team that values speed and stolen bases. Crawford found that out pretty quickly--one reason why he didn't fit. Fenway is a hitter's park.

[MNSoxChief102]

I'd be fine with signing Hamilton, provided we splurge on the money and not the years in the deal. A three year deal at a higher per would be fine by me. He would help a ton on offense and his defense isn't all that bad either. Batting him next to Ortiz would be awesome.

[example1]

I'm not drinking this KoolAid, and even the FO is not trying to sell us on this.

 

If you think they are not going to be a great team next year no matter what, then why not punt on 2013 and plan for 2014? It isn't an unreasonable approach at all.

 

I'm not sold that they are incapable of being good next year, I just don't think they should trade their future for guys who arent a virtual sure thing. Not Jose Reyes, not Josh Johnson. Maybe Justin Upton.

[jung]

Victorino would not be a terrible choice here but I am not sure there is really a spot for him here. It does not matter who they bring in for a bat if they don't resolve the pitching issues. If they have a plan for that....great.

 

I offered weeks ago that at the right number of years Hamilton could work here. Although, this is already a dysfunctional family. Farrell might be the most level headed guy in the whole mix at this point. Clearly Henry is a train wreck right now. LL will continue to slither this way and that. BC clearly does not ooze confidence as yet. Just not convinced that it will be as easy for the Red Sox to work out control mechanisms for Hamilton here as good as it was done in Texas. It is simply not the environment for that and the Sox are not the organization for that....neither is NY.

 

It could be fine. We are all going to be oozing egg on our faces if we bring him here and he blows up. We will all be looking at each other saying..."boy didn't that seem obvious".....much like many of us were saying...."Valentine...you have got to be kidding right".

 

I kinda' see what E1 is saying as well. We seem to be pushing a bit to hard to go from the basement to the penthouse or at least try to in one off season and I just do not quite understand why we want to absorb a whole bunch of risk in an effort to give that a shot. If they can improve and at least be able to make a legitimate run in 2013...one that would involve improving the team but needing a good deal of luck to really compete for a title...planning to do that by 2014, I just don't see why that would be objectionable.

 

We have a now totally distracted owner, no matter what he says. His core businesses are crumbing under him. It is hard to tell what is in worse shape as far as FSG is concerned, his Liverpool adventure or the Sox. The team just extricated itself from a bunch of goo in the form of crummy contracts. New manager coming in having barely survived V. I am not even sure there heart would be into a Hamilton effort. Whether we want to admit it or not, everything has to work out right to go from the basement to the penthouse in one year and even when it works there are rarely any enduring elements that carry forward. For example the O's almost did it but I expect them to be nowhere this year for that exact reason.

[MNSoxChief102]

Victorino would not be a terrible choice here but I am not sure there is really a spot for him here. It does not matter who they bring in for a bat if they don't resolve the pitching issues. If they have a plan for that....great.

 

I offered weeks ago that at the right number of years Hamilton could work here. Although, this is already a dysfunctional family. Farrell might be the most level headed guy in the whole mix at this point. Clearly Henry is a train wreck right now. LL will continue to slither this way and that. Just not convinced that it will be as easy for the Red Sox to work out control mechanisms for Hamilton here as good as it was done in Texas. It is simply not the environment for that and the Sox are not the organization for that....neither is NY.

 

It could be fine. We are all going to be oozing egg on our faces if we bring him here and he blows up. We will all be looking at each other saying..."boy didn't that seem obvious".....much like many of us were saying...."Valentine...you have got to be kidding right".

 

I would be surprised if there wasn't some sort of control mechanism put into his contract, perhaps in the form of a morals clause so to speak, that would let the Sox (or whoever signs him) off the hook if he goes off the deep end again. Not sure if they can do that or not, but it would be logical. Provided he stays clean, Hamilton would have nothing to worry about and would make a s*** ton of money over a short period of time.

[a700hitter]

If you think they are not going to be a great team next year no matter what, then why not punt on 2013 and plan for 2014? It isn't an unreasonable approach at all.

 

I'm not sold that they are incapable of being good next year, I just don't think they should trade their future for guys who arent a virtual sure thing. Not Jose Reyes, not Josh Johnson. Maybe Justin Upton.

I am not expecting a great team in 2013, but I would expect a team in 2013 that is not embarrassingly bad like the 2012 team. With 2 wild card teams, if a team is not embarrassingly bad and it is somewhat competitive, they can make a run at a playoff spot. There is no reason why a team with the Red Sox resources cannot be respectable in 2013 while building for the future. The future doesn't have to be sacrificed to get back to respectability. The Jays didn't mortgage their future. They improved their team.

 

I can't see fit to defend Cherries until he makes some moves that will help this team get back to respectability. He's not acting conservatively. He's has not taken any action that is helpful.

[jung]

Yea 700 that is what I was aiming at....respectable in 2013 actually in the running for one of the WC spots building to a real run in 2014.

 

I don't think a morals clause gets it done because Hamilton's "situation" will be treated contractually as a condition. I don't see a way around that. So the Sox will be able to insure his contract and maybe build in something like what they had with Lackey. But there won't be a way out of the contract since Hamilton will have divulged his condition to the Sox or whomever.

[SCM33]

I hope Iglesias makes the opening day team, they make him the starter so he can absolutely bomb and we can get this ridiculous talk out of the way early. Hopefully they can still win, despite him.

 

Maybe then we can start talking about major league caliber shortstops.

[iortiz]

I am not expecting a great team in 2013, but I would expect a team in 2013 that is not embarrassingly bad like the 2012 team. With 2 wild card teams, if a team is not embarrassingly bad and it is somewhat competitive, they can make a run at a playoff spot. There is no reason why a team with the Red Sox resources cannot be respectable in 2013 while building for the future. The future doesn't have to be sacrificed to get back to respectability. The Jays didn't mortgage their future. They improved their team.

 

I can't see fit to defend Cherries until he makes some moves that will help this team get back to respectability. He's not acting conservatively. He's has not taken any action that is helpful.

 

Other teams with a lot less resources have made brilliant seasons the last 4 years. I'm not sure why some people still defending this FO, I simply do not. We have a great fan base, resources, the stadium is always full and sold out, history, etc. what else a GM in Boston needs in order to succeed? what?