Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[DocHolliday]

Out of the box idea if we don't want to spend a lot in prospects -

 

We could see if Justin Smoak would be a buy low candidate. He may be a perfect guy for a change of scenery, and he would cost the Sox very little. If we could get him for a deal around a guy like Drake Britton, he'd be worth considering.

 

Former big time Rangers prospect and a switch hitter.

 

Plays good defense and his low offensive numbers could be partially due to Safeco Field. His OPS+ relative to the league's split OPS + was 109 on the road compared to 52 at home last season (279 PA away, 256 PA home).

 

This would be an affordable pickup in terms of players going to Seattle with the potential to be a LT answer at 1B. He's still young, turning 26 in September.

 

Worth taking a flyer on if the deal is right.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Former big time Rangers prospect and a switch hitter.

 

Plays good defense and his low offensive numbers could be partially due to Safeco Field. His OPS+ relative to the league's split OPS + was 109 on the road compared to 52 at home last season (279 PA away, 256 PA home).

 

This would be an affordable pickup in terms of players going to Seattle with the potential to be a LT answer at 1B. He's still young, turning 26 in September.

 

Worth taking a flyer on if the deal is right.

 

Exactly. I didn't know if I was going to get crushed for the idea, but I really think the Mariners are essentially done with him.

 

Again, if you can buy low on him (Think: Drake Britton + Josh Fields), then it would certainly be worth looking into.

 

Like you said, he was a really big time prospect (#13 prospect pre-2010), and SafeCo likely suppressed his numbers to a substantial degree.

 

The talent is still there, maybe going from Safeco to Fenway will turn him around (See: Adrian Beltre).

[Behindenemylines]

I agree that player development is only is good as the talented players being drafted. The core of the 2007 team was home grown players. Long term success for a team comes through the draft.

[a700hitter]

I just don't think there is any case for saying that the player development here has been bad. There has been a gap of quality major leaguers since 2009, and I understand that, but that has nothing to do with player development. They churn out good players when they have the talent to work with, but they've traded away most of their top picks that should be blossoming now.

 

Middlebrooks, Tazawa, Reddick, and to a lesser extent Doubront have definitely shown themselves to be major league talent developed by this system this year.

I meant to limit the criticism to the development of pitching. We just do not seem to develop enough pitchers.

[SeanJohn93]

I would prefer a trade for Ike Davis than Smoak. A lot more power who has more potential when it comes to playing at Fenway Park

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ike would cost a ton more than Smoak. The point of getting Smoak would be that we could keep our elite prospects.

[a700hitter]

I agree that player development is only is good as the talented players being drafted. The core of the 2007 team was home grown players. Long term success for a team comes through the draft.

The player development personnel is not the same as it was when developing the players that made an impact on the 2007 team.

[Palodios]

Exactly. I didn't know if I was going to get crushed for the idea, but I really think the Mariners are essentially done with him.

 

Again, if you can buy low on him (Think: Drake Britton + Josh Fields), then it would certainly be worth looking into.

 

Like you said, he was a really big time prospect (#13 prospect pre-2010), and SafeCo likely suppressed his numbers to a substantial degree.

 

The talent is still there, maybe going from Safeco to Fenway will turn him around (See: Adrian Beltre).

 

I don't know if you've heard this, but they're moving the fences in at Safeco in order to make their park more attractive to offensive free agents. They traded Cliff Lee for Smoak, so I bet that they're going to continue thinking very highly of him-- especially because of his second half split was a full .150 OPS points higher than his first half.

 

Smoak may be one of those players that are untradeable simply because Seattle values him more than he's worth.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't know if you've heard this, but they're moving the fences in at Safeco in order to make their park more attractive to offensive free agents. They traded Cliff Lee for Smoak, so I bet that they're going to continue thinking very highly of him-- especially because of his second half split was a full .150 OPS points higher than his first half.

 

Smoak may be one of those players that are untradeable simply because Seattle values him more than he's worth.

 

Yeah I heard that, but I also think that Seattle is over him. They were going after Belt this past deadline. They're looking for another 1B. The M's sent him back and forth to AAA all year, and he is in his mid 20's.

 

I don't think they're too big on him.

[SeanJohn93]

Maybe a change of scenery will do well for Smoak he played down the cape and I got the chance to see him play. Seattle swallows up offensive numbers from players. If the sox get him, hopefully he can produce.

[DocHolliday]

Yeah I heard that, but I also think that Seattle is over him. They were going after Belt this past deadline. They're looking for another 1B. The M's sent him back and forth to AAA all year, and he is in his mid 20's.

 

I don't think they're too big on him.

 

Like I said, if they are able to get Smoak for a reasonable cost, then I wouldn't blink at making that deal happen.

 

Smoak is still young and hasn't had a whole lot of playing time for his age. He was blocked by Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis while he was in Texas. He never got the chance to play 1B much until this season. Last year, he split time with Mike Carp and has really only played full time 1B this season.

 

He's under control until 2017 and won't hit arbitration eligibility until 2014. Looks like the perfect cost controlled 1B until he hits FA if he is able to fulfill his potential.

 

And, I agree he would cost less than Ike Davis in both $, prospects, and a draft pick compared to signing a guy like Napoli - who I also view as a viable option if a value adding trade can't be made.

[Plumpamania]

Mike Napoli shouldn't be an option if we want to go back to the Series. Right now we need to STRAY away from the guys on the wrong side of 31.

[jung]

I think the thinking on Napoli (if they are thinking about him at all) would be that nobody is going to give him really big money and he could end up being a reasonably priced 3 year contract guy that can play some platoon 1st and platoon Catcher. Any sort of really big money deal and I would not have any interest in Napoli. His 1 year high water market is something like $9M so I would have no interest in paying him $9 per for 3 years.

[a700hitter]

Mike Napoli shouldn't be an option if we want to go back to the Series. Right now we need to STRAY away from the guys on the wrong side of 31.

Cherington in an interview in today's Globe discussed how the FO had strayed from its discipline. He didn't mean that they were relying on high price veterans and free agents at the expense of more young home grown players. He clearly stated that there has been a big problem of not bringing in the right big priced veterans. The article states that:

 

Cherington repeatedly noted the club’s failure to maintain its model of acquiring valued veterans — the likes of Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, and Curt Schilling — and blending them in with some of the club’s brightest young prospects over the years such as Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis for what proved to be a wildly successful, championship formula.

and

 

It’s that blend of experience, swagger, and youthful enthusiasm that the 38-year-old Cherington hopes to infuse again in a club that finds itself in desperate need of a reset following its historic collapse of September 2011 and near-slapstick failures of this season.

 

The 2004 team had a number of players 31 and over including: Varitek, Millar, Mueller, Manny, 4 the team's 5 starting pitchers and almost the entire bullpen. More than half of the 25 man roster in 2007 was 31 and over.

[Plumpamania]

The 2004 team had a number of players 31 and over including: Varitek, Millar, Mueller, Manny, 4 the team's 5 starting pitchers and almost the entire bullpen. More than half of the 25 man roster in 2007 was 31 and over.

 

Agreed, and we were lucky to do some flipping around of some of those contracts in 2007. After 2004 we were also stagnant for a few years without true replacements for the future. I like Salty but he's no heir apparent for 'Tek. His OBP below .300 shouldn't be valued by our team with our core being walks and long balls. He only fits one of those categories, but with today's MLB catchers, we may be lucky.

 

Two of those guys were also very small contracts with a very short time span (Millar and Mueller), but both were cogs, and like Ortiz, they were found on the MLB scrap heap.

 

After 2007 we've still been playing catch up trying to figure out what works for us. We went to the defensive formula for a year that wasn't too bad, but we got impatient. But the idea also was that our defensively solid players were good hitters.

 

I'm down for guys that produce and will come at a decent contract. The free agent market this year doesn't even really show diamonds in the rough, due to Oakland's and our success with that formula everyone's been trying to recreate it. And in this we have turned into a group of free swingers, which doesn't win ball games.

[a700hitter]

Agreed, and we were lucky to do some flipping around of some of those contracts in 2007. After 2004 we were also stagnant for a few years without true replacements for the future. I like Salty but he's no heir apparent for 'Tek. His OBP below .300 shouldn't be valued by our team with our core being walks and long balls. He only fits one of those categories, but with today's MLB catchers, we may be lucky.

 

Two of those guys were also very small contracts with a very short time span (Millar and Mueller), but both were cogs, and like Ortiz, they were found on the MLB scrap heap.

 

After 2007 we've still been playing catch up trying to figure out what works for us. We went to the defensive formula for a year that wasn't too bad, but we got impatient. But the idea also was that our defensively solid players were good hitters.

 

I'm down for guys that produce and will come at a decent contract. The free agent market this year doesn't even really show diamonds in the rough, due to Oakland's and our success with that formula everyone's been trying to recreate it. And in this we have turned into a group of free swingers, which doesn't win ball games.

Not to pick nits but Ortiz was only 28 in 2004. Almost the entire pitching staff was 31 and over and there was a lot of money invested in them.

[Palodios]

The 2004 team had a number of players 31 and over including: Varitek, Millar, Mueller, Manny, 4 the team's 5 starting pitchers and almost the entire bullpen. More than half of the 25 man roster in 2007 was 31 and over.

 

One of the things I noted at the beginning of the season this year was that the Red Sox had gotten significantly younger in 2012. Normally, it is better to have younger players because they are much more likely to stay healthy, so I considered that a good thing.

 

However, a big part of the problem was that the oldest players on the team were Beckett/Lackey/ Youkilis. Throw in a coach like Bobby Valentine who immediately got on Youk's bad side, and instead of providing veteran leadership, the four of them ended up acting childish.

[ibot2much]

I think Beckett and Lackey were having their childish moments before BV arrived. Cher is telling us in the GLOBE about how well Lackey is doing with his rehab. God, I hope that means they are looking to trade him...I dislike that SOB

[example1]

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/21233366/reports-sox-meet-japanese-phenom-otani

 

This may deserve its own thread, but apparently the Sox met with "japanese phenom" Shohei Otani the other day. There's a video linked in the link.

 

There's plenty of reason to be skeptical, but I think the Sox should try to put a good chunk of their money in international talent. Plenty of people here were talking about Yu Darvish in the offseason, and he is a legitimate MLB starter (though the price was too high). Also, there was lots of discussion about Aroldis Chapman and Yeonis Cespedes when those deals were being pursued. In retrospect, those players are good ones and they didn't cost FA equivalent prices.

 

I would be shocked if the Sox--with their newfound financial flexibility and the paucity of good FAs over the next couple of years--aren't extremely aggressive internationally. This kid looks like a good candidate to invest in, if he's open to playing for the Sox. Looks like a big kid, and hitting 100mph out of the stretch at 18 is pretty impressive.

 

EDIT: I noticed on another site that the kid is 6-4, 190. That's the kind of frame of an MLB pitcher. In the video his arms look really long. It could just be the video, but they look freakishly so.

[Station 13]

I doubt he leaves Japan. Selig would step in to void the contract. He did so recently when the Orioles signed a player from Korea just to keep the tension down. After Tazawa went to the Red Sox, the Japanese league started a ban that any amateur who skips the draft for MLB will be banned 3 year if they were to return to Japan. No-one has crossed it, it's been 4 year since Tazawa went to the Red Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I've heard the kid pumps 99-100 as an 18 year old. Not sure if it's accurate, but if so, he's certainly worth looking into.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here's where I heard about his velocity:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/shohei-otani-deciding-between-japan-mlb.html

 

"Despite his young age, Otani is already 6'4" and 190 pounds and owns a fastball that has been clocked in the 99-100 mph range. MLB teams wouldn't have to pay a posting fee to sign Otani as he isn't contracted to any Japanese pro team."

[a700hitter]

One of the things I noted at the beginning of the season this year was that the Red Sox had gotten significantly younger in 2012. Normally, it is better to have younger players because they are much more likely to stay healthy, so I considered that a good thing.

 

However, a big part of the problem was that the oldest players on the team were Beckett/Lackey/ Youkilis. Throw in a coach like Bobby Valentine who immediately got on Youk's bad side, and instead of providing veteran leadership, the four of them ended up acting childish.

The problem with the 2012 team was definitely not that they were old. The 2012 Yankees are old, but that has not been a problem for them. The problem with the 2012 Red Sox was that they stunk-- plain ans simple. The solution is going younger. The solution is getting good players both veterans and young players. It's probably easier to make some good choices trading and signing good veterans than fixing a lousy farm system. They will need to do both but the latter will take time.

[Behindenemylines]

They can't leave any stone unturned. Its good that they are looking. Other teams have had success finding foreign players that have helped them right away.

[DocHolliday]

Here's where I heard about his velocity:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/shohei-otani-deciding-between-japan-mlb.html

 

"Despite his young age, Otani is already 6'4" and 190 pounds and owns a fastball that has been clocked in the 99-100 mph range. MLB teams wouldn't have to pay a posting fee to sign Otani as he isn't contracted to any Japanese pro team."

 

Reposting from yesterday before the server crash:

 

I'd be ok with signing Otani if there is no posting fee. For me, this similar to signing international free agents from the Latin American countries when they are at a young age. Although the posting fee paid for Matsuzaka did not affect the luxury tax value the Sox were assigned, it still has to be included when evaluating whether his contract was a good or bad decision.

 

For all other intents and purposes, Matsuzaka was acquired for $103 M with the posting fee and contract, or an average of around $18 M per season over 6 seasons. If Otani can be signed for somewhere around a 4 year, $15- $20 M contract- or $4 a $5 AAV per season, similar to Jose Iglesias as a 19 y/o amateur FA, I would say that's a risk worth taking.

[a700hitter]

Just throwing it out to chew on. When VMart comes back next season, there is no position for him with Tigers unless he rotates between DH and 1B with Fielder. The Tigers may just look to dump his salary. He could fit nicely at 1B for us.

[a700hitter]

Jon Lester just completed a disappointing season, but as Rob Bradford points out at WEEI.com it could be a good time for the Red Sox to approach the left-hander about another contract extension. Lester, who's under team control through 2014, has said he's "always open" to extension talks. So far the sides haven't discussed a new deal, Bradford reports.

I don't think they should pursue this.

[Station 13]

They should instead listen on offers for him and Ellsbury.

[mvp 78]

I don't think they should pursue this.

 

Rob Bradford is a horrible toadie. He's the least impartial reporter around. I wonder why he'd float this?

[Elktonnick]

Rob Bradford is a horrible toadie. He's the least impartial reporter around. I wonder why he'd float this?

 

I certainly agree with you about Bradford. He is to the Red Sox front office what Jay Carney is to the White House. (I am not criticizing Jay Carney or being political just making the point that Bradford is the unoffcial official spokesman of the Red Sox.)