Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[mcs11795]

How about Kalish, Nava, Breslow, Spears, Cash, and Saltalamaccia to texas for Andrus and Olt?

[Behindenemylines]

I wouldn't trade Ellsbury even up for Belt. He hasn't put up big numbers for the Giants. I could see the Sox trading Ellsbury, not just dumping him for a maybe.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I wouldn't trade Ellsbury even up for Belt. He hasn't put up big numbers for the Giants. I could see the Sox trading Ellsbury, not just dumping him for a maybe.

 

Brandon Belt is not a maybe. He's going to be a stud, IMO. He's a ridiculous hitter and a great defender.

 

If the Red Sox pulled off a deal for him, it would be a fantastic deal, even if they had to get rid of Webster and Ellsbury for him.

[mcs11795]

How about let Ortiz walk in free agency. Sign Ross. Trade Ross, saltalamaccia, Breslow, lackey and sands to Milwakee for Aoka, Cash, Gamel and Lucroy. That frees up payroll and brings some Cash, Aoka , two guys who can fight for playing time at first base with Gomez and Lucroy can fight for time behind the plate with Lavarnway. This deal would free up salary and bring in some potential guys who can perform fairly well and will not give the new manager a hard time. The money that they free up can go to two starting pitchers such as Haren and Ervin Santana. With the money they could try to sign Hamilton(who would play everyday at a new position to rest ellsbury in center, Aoka in right field and whoever they stick in right field) and Napoli ( who would spend a lot of time DH ing but could also see significant time behind the plate and at 1st base). The redsox would still have enough money to go out and get a ligit reliever such as Brandon leauge or Jonathan Broxton.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You can't sign and trade in baseball. You have to wait until June to trade a player you just signed, barring approval.

 

For those who were saying "Why would the Giants trade Brandon Belt?", check out the Giants lineup tonight. Against a RHP. It's Beltless.

[Behindenemylines]

Belt had 7 HR in 411 AB. The guy we got from the Dodgers can do that and he plays good D as well. I don't want him either because you need more power out of 1B. Belt has been very up and down with the Giants. The guy is 6'5 and 220 lbs and bats lefty and 7 HR in 411 AB?

[redsoxfan3]

Brandon Belt is not a maybe. He's going to be a stud, IMO. He's a ridiculous hitter and a great defender.

 

If the Red Sox pulled off a deal for him, it would be a fantastic deal, even if they had to get rid of Webster and Ellsbury for him.

 

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that Belt is going to be a "stud?" I know this was his first full year in the majors, but he only hit .275, .762 OPS, with 7 HR's. The power is really not that great, the average is okay, but nothing really makes him stand out to me. I like Allen Webster, and he projects to be a middle of the rotation guy. We are not that deep with starting pitching in the minors, so I do not think I am big on trading away one of our few guys that could be a decent middle of the rotation starters for a guy that has not proven anything in the majors.

 

If we would try to trade Webster for Belt, I sure as hell would not include Ellsbury. I know Gomez has a small sample size, but if we were to compare the two based off of MLB performance of 162 game projections, this is how the two would compare:

 

Belt: 12 HR's, 52 RBI's, .259 BA, .344 OBP, .762 OPS, and 117 OPS+

Gomez: 9 HR's, 74 RBI's, .275 BA, .324 OPB, .746 OPS, and 99 OPS+

 

I know that Gomez has a smaller sample size, but I feel like a full year in the majors that he would be comparable at 1B to Belt.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Belt had 7 HR in 411 AB. The guy we got from the Dodgers can do that and he plays good D as well. I don't want him either because you need more power out of 1B. Belt has been very up and down with the Giants. The guy is 6'5 and 220 lbs and bats lefty and 7 HR in 411 AB?

 

Yeah because he has oppo field power. He's also only 24 years old (turned 24 in April, so a fresh 24 too). And SF isn't exactly a hitter friendly park.

 

Belt was the #23 prospect going into 2011. He has power, he is still learning MLB pitching. He's going to hit for a ton more power. He'll be a 25-30 HR guy, but he would pelt the monster with doubles too.

 

Again, he's only 24 years old. He's certainly a guy worth building around.

[redsoxfan3]

How about let Ortiz walk in free agency. Sign Ross. Trade Ross, saltalamaccia, Breslow, lackey and sands to Milwakee for Aoka, Cash, Gamel and Lucroy. That frees up payroll and brings some Cash, Aoka , two guys who can fight for playing time at first base with Gomez and Lucroy can fight for time behind the plate with Lavarnway. This deal would free up salary and bring in some potential guys who can perform fairly well and will not give the new manager a hard time. The money that they free up can go to two starting pitchers such as Haren and Ervin Santana. With the money they could try to sign Hamilton(who would play everyday at a new position to rest ellsbury in center, Aoka in right field and whoever they stick in right field) and Napoli ( who would spend a lot of time DH ing but could also see significant time behind the plate and at 1st base). The redsox would still have enough money to go out and get a ligit reliever such as Brandon leauge or Jonathan Broxton.

 

First of all, Ortiz was our best player this year when he was healthy. Second of all, let's not trade Cody Ross if we resign him. He is made for Fenway and will continue to be a solid OF for us. There is no way we trade Lackey. No one is going to want to have his contract after coming off of his injury. I am okay with trading Salty and Breslow for the right deals, but we need to improve our bullpen and get a replacement C that is decent if we trade the two. I am not really confident in having Lavarnway start next year at C.

 

I am okay with signing Haren. Santana was garbage last year. We do not need anymore 5.00+ ERA pitchers, we have enough to go around. I do like signing Napoli. I am against signing Josh Hamilton. I think he will be on a decline in the next few years and will not be worth the money he is asking for.

[redsoxfan3]

Yeah because he has oppo field power. He's also only 24 years old (turned 24 in April, so a fresh 24 too). And SF isn't exactly a hitter friendly park.

 

Belt was the #23 prospect going into 2011. He has power, he is still learning MLB pitching. He's going to hit for a ton more power. He'll be a 25-30 HR guy, but he would pelt the monster with doubles too.

 

Again, he's only 24 years old. He's certainly a guy worth building around.

 

I just do not see how you can say that he is a 25-30 HR guy after he only hit 7 HR's this year. I understand he is young and still has room to get better and learn MLB pitching, but I do not think he is a guy you can build a team around if he has not proven anything yet.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think that Belt is going to be a "stud?" I know this was his first full year in the majors, but he only hit .275, .762 OPS, with 7 HR's. The power is really not that great, the average is okay, but nothing really makes him stand out to me. I like Allen Webster, and he projects to be a middle of the rotation guy. We are not that deep with starting pitching in the minors, so I do not think I am big on trading away one of our few guys that could be a decent middle of the rotation starters for a guy that has not proven anything in the majors.

 

If we would try to trade Webster for Belt, I sure as hell would not include Ellsbury. I know Gomez has a small sample size, but if we were to compare the two based off of MLB performance of 162 game projections, this is how the two would compare:

 

Belt: 12 HR's, 52 RBI's, .259 BA, .344 OBP, .762 OPS, and 117 OPS+

Gomez: 9 HR's, 74 RBI's, .275 BA, .324 OPB, .746 OPS, and 99 OPS+

 

I know that Gomez has a smaller sample size, but I feel like a full year in the majors that he would be comparable at 1B to Belt.

 

You're putting entirely too much emphasis on his numbers for his first year in the bigs.

 

A ton of players struggle in their first season in the bigs. And he's 24. Gomez is 27. If you're building for the future, he's a great guy to build around.

 

Go read scouting reports on Brandon Belt. He only had 189 games in the minor leagues. His feet are barely wet in professional baseball. You can't just look at his numbers and say he's going to suck.

 

Jesus Montero had a .685 OPS this year.

Robbie Cano had a .778 OPS in his rookie season.

Joe Mauer had a .783 OPS in his rookie season.

Youk had a .780 OPS in his rookie year.

 

Point being - You can't judge a guy based on rookie year numbers. You see what a guy does in the minors, you look at his tools, and you see if they translate. Belts translate.

[redsoxfan3]

You're putting entirely too much emphasis on his numbers for his first year in the bigs.

 

A ton of players struggle in their first season in the bigs. And he's 24. Gomez is 27. If you're building for the future, he's a great guy to build around.

 

Go read scouting reports on Brandon Belt. He only had 189 games in the minor leagues. His feet are barely wet in professional baseball. You can't just look at his numbers and say he's going to suck.

 

Jesus Montero had a .685 OPS this year.

Robbie Cano had a .778 OPS in his rookie season.

Joe Mauer had a .783 OPS in his rookie season.

Youk had a .780 OPS in his rookie year.

 

Point being - You can't judge a guy based on rookie year numbers. You see what a guy does in the minors, you look at his tools, and you see if they translate. Belts translate.

 

I am not saying he is going to suck. I am also aware that players do have success if they do struggle early on in their career. I understand that scouting reports say something, but in my opinion, nothing has translated to MLB success yet. He had a decent rookie year, but I still do not think it is anything amazing. He could turn out to be a great 1B, but he could still turn out to be an average 1B. I understand your optimism for the kid, but I still am not sold on him as being a player you build your team around at this point, unless you are the Astros.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am not saying he is going to suck. I am also aware that players do have success if they do struggle early on in their career. I understand that scouting reports say something, but in my opinion, nothing has translated to MLB success yet. He had a decent rookie year, but I still do not think it is anything amazing. He could turn out to be a great 1B, but he could still turn out to be an average 1B. I understand your optimism for the kid, but I still am not sold on him as being a player you build your team around at this point, unless you are the Astros.

 

He's precisely the guy that the Red Sox should target. He's still developing. He played 1 full season in the minor leagues before being called up to the majors last year (2011). In 2010, he hit .352/.455/.620 in 3 levels.

 

In 2011, he played 49 games of AAA and hit .309/.448/.527.

 

He's a guy who will grind out AB's, take walks, and crush the ball when you leave a mistake pitch somewhere. He's got an oppo field swing, perfect for Fenway, even if it does give him a s*** ton of doubles and only 25 HR.

 

He's well worth a deal for Ellsbury, who isn't going to sign here next year, and Webster, who is going to be very good it appears, but you have to give up something to get something.

[redsoxfan3]

He's precisely the guy that the Red Sox should target. He's still developing. He played 1 full season in the minor leagues before being called up to the majors last year (2011). In 2010, he hit .352/.455/.620 in 3 levels.

 

In 2011, he played 49 games of AAA and hit .309/.448/.527.

 

He's a guy who will grind out AB's, take walks, and crush the ball when you leave a mistake pitch somewhere. He's got an oppo field swing, perfect for Fenway, even if it does give him a s*** ton of doubles and only 25 HR.

 

He's well worth a deal for Ellsbury, who isn't going to sign here next year, and Webster, who is going to be very good it appears, but you have to give up something to get something.

 

I would rather do an Ellsbury, Gomez, and either Britton or Owens for Belt, if it is possible. If we can keep Webster, that is key. Like you said, Ellsbury is a toss up. He only has one more year guaranteed in Boston. Gomez is already 27 and age is not on his side as he develops. Owens or Britton are decent prospects, but not as highly valued as Webster. I am down for that trade over throwing in Webster. I still would prefer to package a deal around Ellsbury to get an ace and try to sign Napoli or LaRoche to be our 1B.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would rather do an Ellsbury, Gomez, and either Britton or Owens for Belt, if it is possible. If we can keep Webster, that is key. Like you said, Ellsbury is a toss up. He only has one more year guaranteed in Boston. Gomez is already 27 and age is not on his side as he develops. Owens or Britton are decent prospects, but not as highly valued as Webster. I am down for that trade over throwing in Webster. I still would prefer to package a deal around Ellsbury to get an ace and try to sign Napoli or LaRoche to be our 1B.

 

A lot of scouts and coaches think that Owens has the highest ceiling of any of our pitching prospects. I'd rather have Owens than Webster.

[rjortiz]

How about Kalish, Nava, Breslow, Spears, Cash, and Saltalamaccia to texas for Andrus and Olt?

 

Texas is still laughing at you.

[rjortiz]

A lot of scouts and coaches think that Owens has the highest ceiling of any of our pitching prospects. I'd rather have Owens than Webster.

 

Can you name a few of them?

[Palodios]

Can you name a few of them?

 

Go look it up, the guy had like 14 K/9 in the minors.

[a700hitter]

I really hope that by Thanksgiving we are talking about players a lot more interesting than our minor league pitching. Good God, the notion of these guys on the MLB team makes me depressed. Speaking of minor leaguers, our FO really dropped the ball on this guy Gonzalez. We almost wrecked his career with our great player development department and now the guy is lights out.

[SeanJohn93]

Interesting to see the sox interview the dodgers third base coach who was also the AAA coach of the dodgers affiliate Albuequerque team. He will have familiarity with the prospects the red sox received in the august megadeal that sent allen webster jerry sands ivan de jesus and ruby de la rosa. Also, this reminds me of the unfamiliarity that the average fans have of a guy like Wallach when Francona stepped in to take the job in 03. This also means that Cherington is not about all te hype that the media has portrayed on the favorite managerial candidate John Farrell

[rjortiz]

Go look it up, the guy had like 14 K/9 in the minors.

 

That's not what I asked. :lol::lol::lol:

[mvp 78]

I really hope that by Thanksgiving we are talking about players a lot more interesting than our minor league pitching. Good God, the notion of these guys on the MLB team makes me depressed. Speaking of minor leaguers, our FO really dropped the ball on this guy Gonzalez. We almost wrecked his career with our great player development department and now the guy is lights out.

 

Yeah the whole 2 years he spent in the Sox system almost wrecked his career... Give it a rest.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah the whole 2 years he spent in the Sox system almost wrecked his career... Give it a rest.

 

OK, I made some comments about Gonzalez too, so having given this some thought I'm going to try to clarify my position.

 

Gonzalez was in our system for 2 years and his numbers were not good at all. Though oddly his one outing for the PawSox had a line of 5 innings, 1 run, 2 hits, 1 walk, 5 K's.

 

Somehow when the O's acquired he quickly transformed into a very effective major league pitcher with a 3.25 ERA as a rookie and a great outing last night in the Stadium.

 

So what happened? Did we screw up, or was this just bad luck/bad timing of the type that frequently happens.

 

The thing is, the Red Sox system has hardly covered itself in glory as far as producing starters the last 5 years, has it? Doubie is about it.

 

So you look at the Red Sox starters having an ERA of 5.19 this year, then you look at Gonzalez pitching beautifully, and for me anyway, it's pretty hard not to want to scream a little.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Can you name a few of them?

 

Go listen to some of Alex Speier's Down on the Farm podcasts. They're really good, and he discusses owens in quite a few of them.

 

Here's an article he wrote before the trade deadline, discussing the Sox chips:

 

While the Red Sox feature a number of prospects who possess considerable value in a potential deal, for obvious reasons, the team will want to preserve and build around the best of them. That being the case, it is worth wondering whether a surprising name might be the most untouchable of Red Sox prospects right now.

 

Henry Owens, a lanky, 6-foot-7 left-hander, has been one of the most fascinating performers of the year in the Red Sox minor league system. He’s 9-4 with a 5.30 ERA for Single-A Greenville, numbers that fail to represent what an interesting prospect he is.

 

Start with the fact that he is punching out 12.9 batters per nine innings (107 punchouts in 74 2/3 innings), the highest strikeout rate in all of minor league baseball.

 

Then consider that he has been among the youngest starting pitchers in the South Atlantic League all season, typically facing older and more experienced opposing hitters.

 

Then consider that he is in his first year of professional baseball after the Red Sox drafted him in the supplemental first round (No. 36 overall) of last year’s draft.

 

Then consider that he has a very impressive three-pitch arsenal, which right now features a 90-92 mph fastball that he can bump up to 94 mph, a devastating changeup that may be his best swing-and-miss weapon and a curveball that he can spin well, albeit with still-inconsistent location.

 

Then consider that he has a precocious understanding for the craft of pitching, an understanding of what it means to set up pitches and counts and to change the eye levels of hitters with an elevated 94 mph fastball before coming back with a 90 mph heater at the knees.

 

The net result?

 

“Henry Owens may be the best prospect in our entire system right now,” one Sox official recently mused.

 

That’s no small feat, given that he is in a system that features some high-end talent in the form of Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes and Jackie Bradley Jr. But even if one makes the case that any of those three has a brighter big league future than Owens -- and compelling cases can be made for all of them as the top prospect in the Sox system -- Owens might be the most untradeable.

 

That doesn’t simply reflect his future value or ceiling. Instead, it reflects the fact that he will be the most difficult player for whom the Red Sox may find what they might consider equivalent value.

 

There is relative industry consensus on Barnes, Bogaerts and Bradley, all of whom are considered top prospects. Barnes represents a legitimate mid- to front-of-the-rotation starting pitching prospect thanks to his mid-90s fastball and the makings of a solid curveball and changeup. Bogaerts represents a monster hitting prospect, regardless of whether he stays at shortstop or moves to third or the outfield. Bradley is a lock to be an everyday center fielder, a dazzling defender with the on-base skills to be at the top of the order.

 

All three have showcased their talents over longer samples, whether in college and now the pros in the cases of Barnes and Bradley or multiple levels of professional baseball in the case of Bogaerts. It’s not hard to have industry consensus about what their values might be in a trade.

 

Owens is a bit different. He’s the embodiment of projection, a pitcher whose high ERA will be dismissed by his supporters (particularly in the Sox organization) as the typical learning process of a young pitcher but whose high strikeout totals will be downplayed by critics (chiefly, scouts of other organizations) as the byproduct of the level where he’s pitching and the fact that his opponents have rarely seen anyone like Owens -- very tall and gangly and left-handed and with a legitimate breaking ball and changeup -- on the mound.

 

Critics will see promise in Owens but will want to see that promise take greater definition in more advanced professional levels. The Sox, meanwhile, have more of a history with him, and so they see a remarkable player, pitcher and person who represents a future front-of-the-rotation pitcher. (A side note: A case can be made that no one in the system has more passion for baseball than Owens, whose incredible enthusiasm and rooting interest -- as well as attentiveness -- in his Greenville Drive team while sitting in the stands and charting games has become subject to organizational folklore.)

 

That, in turn, is likely to create asymmetrical value for the pitcher. The Sox’ view of him simply may not align with that of other teams, something that would make it almost impossible to consider a deal involving hm.

 

There is no such thing as an untouchable player in the Red Sox system, but there are players whom the organization values incredibly highly. Owens may be at the top of the list, as team officials suggest that it would take a remarkable talent to part with him.

 

A rental player, no matter how good, wouldn’t be enough of a return to consider dealing the young left-hander. For that matter, even players who are under team control for both this year and next -- think Matt Garza -- would not likely sway the Sox to deal him. In all likelihood, the Sox would need to get an established star-caliber big leaguer who would remain under team control for years in order to even contemplate the idea of trading the pitcher (who turned 20 a few days ago).

 

There are instances where players represent trading chips. If a player is blocked or, in some ways, redundant, his primary value to an organization is in his ability to help the team address an actual need. The team’s glut of outfielders comes to mind.

 

Owens does not. There’s no one like him in the Red Sox system, and there are few like him in all of professional baseball. What that means for his future is a bit unclear -- good luck looking at a pitcher who was drafted out of high school and is now in his first year of pro ball and saying with any certainty what his career path will be -- but all indications are that the Sox will keep him around to find out.

[a700hitter]

Yeah the whole 2 years he spent in the Sox system almost wrecked his career... Give it a rest.

Give it a rest? Drop dead. It's the first time I ever posted anything about Gonzalez being in the Sox system. His numbers while in our system for 2 years were markedly the worst of his career. The Sox have also had little success in developing major league pitchers. If you would like to discuss that, fin. Otherwise, save your snark ******** for someone else.

[mvp 78]

You can't lament the loss of minor leaguer Gonzalez on one hand and in the other complain about the Sox maybe speculating on putting an untested minor leaguer in their rotation (you know, like a 2012 Miguel Gonzalez).

 

Feel free to be bothered by the snark, but it's a valid point.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Out of the box idea if we don't want to spend a lot in prospects -

 

We could see if Justin Smoak would be a buy low candidate. He may be a perfect guy for a change of scenery, and he would cost the Sox very little. If we could get him for a deal around a guy like Drake Britton, he'd be worth considering.

[a700hitter]

You can't lament the loss of minor leaguer Gonzalez on one hand and in the other complain about the Sox maybe speculating on putting an untested minor leaguer in their rotation (you know, like a 2012 Miguel Gonzalez).

 

Feel free to be bothered by the snark, but it's a valid point.

Wrong against, snarky. First, you tell me to give something a rest after I made just a single passing reference to a player. Now, you are claiming that I have taken a position that I have not taken. I am not lamenting the loss of Gonzalez. My lament is that our player development sucks. Gonzalez was a horror show while he was in the Sox organization. I would not have wanted to see him at the MLB level in a Sox uni, because he would have been a train wreck as I fear our other prospects will be if promoted. The Orioles quickly straightened him out and he played a big role for their 2012 team. I used Gonzalez as an example of the lousy job that the Sox do at player development. I am sure there are other guys that they are ruining. I am not lament ring the loss of Gonzalez. If you are going to be snarky, at least be a smartass and not a dumbass.

[Behindenemylines]

There are a lot of guys that things don't click right away, and then they catch on with another team and they take off. Maybe Gonzalez fits into that category. Then again when the teams in the AL East see him some more they might have more success against him. When hitters haven't seen a pitcher the advantage goes to the pitcher. Maybe that is what he is enjoying right now. WERTH JUST HAD A WALK OFF HR FOR THE NATS!

[Palodios]

Wrong against, snarky. First, you tell me to give something a rest after I made just a single passing reference to a player. Now, you are claiming that I have taken a position that I have not taken. I am not lamenting the loss of Gonzalez. My lament is that our player development sucks. Gonzalez was a horror show while he was in the Sox organization. I would not have wanted to see him at the MLB level in a Sox uni, because he would have been a train wreck as I fear our other prospects will be if promoted. The Orioles quickly straightened him out and he played a big role for their 2012 team. I used Gonzalez as an example of the lousy job that the Sox do at player development. I am sure there are other guys that they are ruining. I am not lament ring the loss of Gonzalez. If you are going to be snarky, at least be a smartass and not a dumbass.

 

I just don't think there is any case for saying that the player development here has been bad. There has been a gap of quality major leaguers since 2009, and I understand that, but that has nothing to do with player development. They churn out good players when they have the talent to work with, but they've traded away most of their top picks that should be blossoming now.

 

Middlebrooks, Tazawa, Reddick, and to a lesser extent Doubront have definitely shown themselves to be major league talent developed by this system this year.