June 1, 2012: Red Sox @ Blue Jays

[FredLynn]

I think Atchison has pitched more innings than any RP and has the third lowest ERA of any RP with more than 20 IP in the AL. He has now pitched 30.1 innings and has an ERA under 0.9. Pretty amazing.

[evilhand]

I grade harshly. I am talking about as a SP; that year happened to be VERY good' date=' though a bit low in terms of number of innings. I think he has proven something: that he has potential. He is not like Beckett or Lester who, despite their troubles, have proven themselves to be at least adequate for many years. Buchholz has not done that yet.[/quote']

 

Harshly is an understatement, heh. He averaged 6.20 IP per game and went 7 or more in 8 of his last 12 starts that year. He's done a lot more than prove "nothing."

[a700hitter]

Nice outing by Buchholz. Very nice.

[BornToRun]

Sox win and I'm hammered! Woooooo!

[SoxFanForsyth]

So sounds like you are ready to call that last start by Beckett a good start. If so your expectations for what you should get from a 2 on a contending team are far lower than mine. Not to mention that Lester has pitched so poorly that some folks on this board want to call Beckett our 1.

 

Beckett did not control the other team at any time during the course of that game, a team that has been slumping and did not leave the game with his team leading a game that his team eventually lost. Sorry but that is not a good start...not terrible, maybe not even bad but certainly not good.

 

Uh.

 

You realize that even with that last outing, in each of his last 4 starts, Beckett has gone at least 7 IP and allowed a total of 7 ER, posting a 2.20 ERA.

 

As much as you want, you're not going to get a QS every single outing from your SP.

 

And, in fact, Beckett has had 7 QS in 10 GS this season.

 

Outside of the 2 bad starts that Beckett has had, he's posted a 2.56 ERA over 8 starts.

 

So now, I ask you. You want to call Buchholz a poor starter based on 8 bad starts, 2 good starts. But then, you don't want to call Beckett a good starter based on 8 good starts, 2 bad starts.

 

So pitchers suddenly aren't allowed to have a couple early season lumps??

[mvp 78]

Even Pedro in 99 had a few mediocre starts and one stinker.

 

You shut you whore mouth...

[jung]

When you consider Buch's injury record, he not only has to pitch solidly, he has to stay off the DL, something he has not been able to accomplish very often in his career and it is the combination of inconsistent pitching performances and stints on the DL that have tarnished his career to date. He has had one good year, meaning a year that he pitched well and stayed off the DL. As such he is still more promise than he is proven performance.

 

If you want to put it in perspective, this is why Buch is so close to the cliff edge even now. All he has to do to end up putting himself way back at square one is to end up with yet another stint on the DL this year....thats it...that is all it will take because now his track record IS to end up spending at least some part of each year on the DL and more often than not over the 15 day DL.

[mvp 78]

Sox win and I'm hammered! Woooooo!

 

Not me, migraine.

[evilhand]

You shut you whore mouth...

 

Don't worry, I flailed myself as I typed it. It may be true, but that doesn't mean I didn't blaspheme by posting it.

[Station 13]

Liked the improvement out of Buchholz. Would like him to stop giving up so many homeruns as his next step.

[BornToRun]

Atchison with the GAUDY 0.89 ERA.

 

Not me' date=' migraine.[/quote']

 

I'm barely functional right now.

[FredLynn]

Harshly is an understatement' date=' heh. He averaged 6.20 IP per game and went 7 or more in 8 of his last 12 starts that year. He's done a lot more than prove "nothing."[/quote']

 

Hey too. I agree that 2010 was an unbelievable year for him. Totally like an ace. If he could only come close to repeating it.......

He pitched just 82 innings last year, so I am going to give him an "incomplete" for that year. In 2007 he pitched just 22 innings: grade: incomplete. IN 2008 he pitched 76 innings with an ERA of 6.75; grade: F. In 2009 he pitched 92 innings with an ERA of 4.21; grade: C. He has yet to show that he can pitch a full season repeatedly (ie over 180 innings), keep healthy, and be effective. He has potential, but thats all he has...IMO.

[evilhand]

When you consider Buch's injury record' date=' he not only has to pitch solidly, he has to stay off the DL, something he has not been able to accomplish very often in his career and it is the combination of inconsistent pitching performances and stints on the DL that have tarnished his career to date.[/quote']

 

I'll certainly agree that he needs to prove he can stay healthy. The back injury last year is something that could lead to chronic issues, so his ability to stay on the mound is certainly in question. I just think it's extreme to claim he's proven nothing. (not that you were the one who said that)

[SoxSport]

Let's see. We'll give you Youks and Crawford for your salary dumps.

[BornToRun]

Beer pong is fun.

[FredLynn]

I'll certainly agree that he needs to prove he can stay healthy. The back injury last year is something that could lead to chronic issues' date=' so his ability to stay on the mound is certainly in question. I just think it's extreme to claim he's proven nothing. (not that you were the one who said that)[/quote']

 

I did not say that (I think). If I did, I meant that he has proven only that he has potential.

[FredLynn]

Beer pong is fun.

 

You are a sick man.

[BornToRun]

You are a sick man.

 

Sick boy. I'm 16 brother.

[jung]

Oh...OK so take a piece of time that suits you if you want....but in his last 5 starts he is 2-2 and 1 no decision with a 4.06 ERA over 31 innings pitched. That is more like an average of 6 innings per start. Sorry not what I expect from a 2 and way below expectation for a 1 if we are now going to demote Lester.

 

Or we can go to Beckett's season totals which will make his ERA 4.26 and a 4-5 record over 10 starts but we don't want to do that do we cause we want to make believe the first start of the season did not happen. Regardless, Beckett so far of the three of them is a model of consistency which says more about the other two than it says about Beckett.

 

The problem with all of this is that whenever even the best of the three of them gets close to getting over the hump, he tosses in a stinker and you are back to wondering how consistently the top three will pitch. Lester has not gotten even close yet, Beckett has been the closest and Buch has now gone past Lester and is closing in on Beckett as far as consistent performance is concerned but none of the three has really gotten there yet. They just haven't.

[a700hitter]

Oh...OK so take a piece of time that suits you if you want....but in his last 5 starts he is 2-2 and 1 no decision with a 4.06 ERA over 31 innings pitched. That is more like an average of 6 innings per start. Sorry not what I expect from a 2 and way below expectation for a 1 if we are now going to demote Lester.

 

Or we can go to Beckett's season totals which will make his ERA 4.26 and a 4-5 record over 10 starts but we don't want to do that do we cause we want to make believe the first start of the season did not happen. Regardless, Beckett so far of the three of them is a model of consistency which says more about the other two than it says about Beckett.

 

The problem with all of this is that whenever even the best of the three of them gets close to getting over the hump, he tosses in a stinker and you are back to wondering how consistently the top three will pitch. Lester has not gotten even close yet, Beckett has been the closest and Buch has now gone past Lester and is closing in on Beckett as far as consistent performance is concerned but none of the three has really gotten there yet. They just haven't.

The signs are good with the starting pitching. However, we can't say is you disregard certain games they are doing great. They have had some real good starts recently, but they need to do it consistently. Right now, Buch has pitched to a 6+ ERA. There are no excuses. You don't get to drop his worst games. He needs to build on these last 2 starts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Oh...OK so take a piece of time that suits you if you want....but in his last 5 starts he is 2-2 and 1 no decision with a 4.06 ERA over 31 innings pitched. That is more like an average of 6 innings per start. Sorry not what I expect from a 2 and way below expectation for a 1 if we are now going to demote Lester.

 

Or we can go to Beckett's season totals which will make his ERA 4.26 and a 4-5 record over 10 starts but we don't want to do that do we cause we want to make believe the first start of the season did not happen. Regardless, Beckett so far of the three of them is a model of consistency which says more about the other two than it says about Beckett.

 

The problem with all of this is that whenever even the best of the three of them gets close to getting over the hump, he tosses in a stinker and you are back to wondering how consistently the top three will pitch. Lester has not gotten even close yet, Beckett has been the closest and Buch has now gone past Lester and is closing in on Beckett as far as consistent performance is concerned but none of the three has really gotten there yet. They just haven't.

 

Dude.

 

That's a joke. Going back 5 starts, fine. That includes his 2.1 IP, 7 ER, which manipulates his starts tremendously.

 

He has been an elite pitcher over the past 4 starts. 2.20 ERA.

 

Ugh. I give up. I really do. 2 starts over 10 total starts on the season manipulates the data entirely too much to portray the type of pitcher he's really been, but you refuse to believe that.

 

If you want to take it back to the beginning of the year, let's go ahead and take it back to the beginning of last year. Bigger sample, right? Great. Over his last 40 starts he's got a 3.23 ERA.

 

No, that makes no sense because what he did in April, 2011 is irrelevant to today. Even if you want to include that s***** outing against the Guardians, he's still posted a 3.53 ERA and averaged 6.51 IP/start.

 

Like I said. He's had 2 bad starts. But he's been outstanding outside of those, and he's trending in the right direction.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The signs are good with the starting pitching. However' date=' we can't say is you disregard certain games they are doing great.[/b'] They have had some real good starts recently, but they need to do it consistently. Right now, Buch has pitched to a 6+ ERA. There are no excuses. You don't get to drop his worst games. He needs to build on these last 2 starts.

 

This is what kills me.

 

People disregard Beckett's 8 good starts and say he's not been good.

 

Then people disregard Buchholz's 2 good starts and say he's been awful.

 

Regardless, both guys are trending in the right direction, that much we can agree on. But people just hate Beckett because they think he's a ********, so they don't care about his performance.

[mvp 78]

Beer pong is fun.

 

Depends upon the beer and if you're playing girl rules or not.

[evilhand]

Oh...OK so take a piece of time that suits you if you want....but in his last 5 starts he is 2-2 and 1 no decision with a 4.06 ERA over 31 innings pitched. That is more like an average of 6 innings per start. Sorry not what I expect from a 2 and way below expectation for a 1 if we are now going to demote Lester.

 

Or we can go to Beckett's season totals which will make his ERA 4.26 and a 4-5 record over 10 starts but we don't want to do that do we cause we want to make believe the first start of the season did not happen. Regardless, Beckett so far of the three of them is a model of consistency which says more about the other two than it says about Beckett.

 

The problem with all of this is that whenever even the best of the three of them gets close to getting over the hump, he tosses in a stinker and you are back to wondering how consistently the top three will pitch. Lester has not gotten even close yet, Beckett has been the closest and Buch has now gone past Lester and is closing in on Beckett as far as consistent performance is concerned but none of the three has really gotten there yet. They just haven't.

 

I'll take Clay as a good number 3 type starter. Hell, a full season of 4.25-ish ERA would be enough for this team to win the division if Beckett keeps pitching like he has and Lester can remember he's good. We don't need three aces to contend in the division. We need our pitchers to give the bats a chance to win. And with 5.25 runs per game (second best in the AL) that doesn't have to be ace level production from our top 3 pitchers. Hell, if our rotation averages quality starts we're going to win a ton of games, and quality starts aren't that good (4.50 ERA).

 

Anyone who thinks Beckett hasn't broken out of his early season slump just isn't paying attention, IMO. Four straight games of 7 or more IP and a 2.20 ERA over that span is the definition of ace level performance.

 

Clay is clearly headed in the right direction and has looked like a completely different pitcher in his last two outings.

 

Lester has enough of a history as an ace or near ace that you have to think he'll figure it out.

 

With Doubront pitching way better than expected and Bard managing to be decent for a 5th starter (soon to be replaced by Daisuke who will likely continue being decent for a 5th starter, the team just needs to keep doing what it's been doing over the last 20 games and they'll make a good run at winning the division. Never mind if they make a trade for another quality starter.

[jacksonianmarch]

The big thing for Clay will be proving his durability. It is pretty obvious that he was reticent to go all out early and just sucked completely. He is bringing out more effort and more velocity. We'll see if he can hold up.

[a700hitter]

This is what kills me.

 

People disregard Beckett's 8 good starts and say he's not been good.

 

Then people disregard Buchholz's 2 good starts and say he's been awful.

 

Regardless, both guys are trending in the right direction, that much we can agree on. But people just hate Beckett because they think he's a ********, so they don't care about his performance.

I don't know about others, but I am not disregarding what they have done lately, and I know their capabilities. I know how they are trending. I don't need to drop their bad games to know how they are trending. Buch has had two good games in a row. That's a good trend. Beckett has had a lot of good starts, but he gave up a boat load of hits last game. He is needs to rebound from that game. We can't drop his early games and his latest game and say that he is doing great. He needs to be more consistent. Lester has been a mystery. He has trouble being consistent within his starts. There's more good than bad lately from the rotation, but I am not turning cartwheels yet.

[evilhand]

The thing people don't seem to be considering with Clay is that he missed most of last year. It's possible some of his early struggles have been due in part to needing to figure out his mechanics again after such a long layoff from pitching. He wasn't just banged up last year, he was completely shut down because of a fracture in his spine.

 

That level of inactivity is bound to leave some lingering rust.

[a700hitter]

The thing people don't seem to be considering with Clay is that he missed most of last year. It's possible some of his early struggles have been due in part to needing to figure out his mechanics again after such a long layoff from pitching. He wasn't just banged up last year, he was completely shut down because of a fracture in his spine.

 

That level of inactivity is bound to leave some lingering rust.

The inactivity probably figures into his early struggles.

[User Name]

How are Clay's injury issues "chronic"? He's had one serious injury (last year) and is currently pitching at full capacity.

 

The injury-prone label is tossed too liberally around here.

[evilhand]

How are Clay's injury issues "chronic"? He's had one serious injury (last year) and is currently pitching at full capacity.

 

The injury-prone label is tossed too liberally around here.

 

You might be referring to my post. When I used the word chronic, I meant that a back injury like his could become chronic in the future. We won't know until he throws a full season. It might not bother him for years. It might not bother him again in his career. But there was some good discussion about it at sosh last year and fractures like these can lead to chronic back issues.

 

Doesn't mean it will, but the possibility is there. I agree it's too early to call him injury prone.