How to Fix This Team?

[jung]

Boy it is looking like a long time before guys are coming back to the Sox lineup that can even catch the ball reliably in the outfield. Last night the outfield was terrible again and we are not even talking about the lack of arms out there cause the throwing problem from the outfield will not be solved when Ells and CC come back. We would hope they could reliably catch the ball though.

 

While I refuse to let Lester off the hook for last night's game in KC cause he let the lowly Royals hit way to many balls hard last night for a #1 in the rotation effort. There was a time when a #1 pitching for a team with pretenses to the post season would be required to go out and pitch a CGSO last night. Not only was it expected, it often happened when a contender in a slump came up against one of the dregs of the league. The expectation is not that great any longer but Lester's performance did not come close to adequate. It should have been obvious to everybody including Lester that the defense in the outfield is one of the weaknesses of this team and it was in large part a contributing factor to last night's lost game.

 

At any rate, it will be a long time before we get Ells back and CC is not right around the corner either. We either need to get better defense in the outfield or we have to stack up the offense so that it is more potent than it is. Right now it seems to score runs but in bunches. Feast or famine and the feasts cloak the fact that to often we are outscored. So we can prevent more runs or score more. Where we are at the moment does not seem to be a very good spot to be.

 

Aviles has played some outfield and I would be willing to bet that he is not worse than Ross and Byrd especially. So I think it makes sense to move Aviles out there and bring up Iggy so that either d-mac or Byrd do not play as many games out there. Then while they have some time with WMB still playing at 3rd I think they should give him some work in the OF so that when Youk comes back, maybe they have a spot to put WMB.

 

Clearly neither move helps the defense in the outfield but it should bolster the offense some, especially against LH pitchers and I don't think the defense out there could be worse. Ross is simply playing to many games for this team and that in my view is why he looks so bad lately, to much exposure. Byrd looks like the outfield version of Youk...he has aged quite a bit over a relatively short period of time and should be nothing more than a fill in at most.

 

Iggy to the infield and Aviles to the outfield might just help the left side when Youk gets back also. The Sox don't have enough pitching to get by with weak outfield fielding but they can be helped by better infield play. Seems to me this would be a way to try to get a more consistent effort out of the offense and it gives Youk a chance to get fixed. That might also end up giving the Sox a chance to move Youk which is probably one thing they really need to do to make room for WMB and possibly get some pitching in return. WMB is a risk but it just does not matter. WMB is the 3rd baseman of the Sox immediate future. Just bite the bullet and take the good with the bad.

 

If Youk stays maybe they can continually rotate Youk between 3rd and sometimes 1st to give AGons a day off here and there.

 

I don't see a good opportunity coming up to trade Beckett. Unfortunately, Beckett is not a team leader and you would want that to come along with the package. It doesn't. It would help a great deal for the team to accept that. I have already accepted that. He is unfortunately, the most effective starter the Sox have and while a bad start might put him more in line with Jon and Buch, right now he is miles ahead of everybody else in that rotation.

 

Youk could be traded but only after he gets some time to repair himself.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

To start with, we can hope our key hitters get better, which they will. Wait for our regular outfielders to come back. Have a SP perform better. Our BP recently hasn't been too bad.

 

In other words, patience. I don't give a s*** what the record is now. It's May. This is the same s*** as last year. People who think they'll perform like this all season don't know s***.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox released right-hander John Maine, according to Eddy. Maine, 31, last pitched in the Majors with the 2010 Mets. He had a strong 2007 season, but his performance later dropped off and he missed considerable time with shoulder injuries. Maine posted a 7.43 ERA in 46 innings with the Rockies' top affiliate in 2011 before signing with the Red Sox this January

Does anyone know what he was doing to earn a paycheck from the Sox? He wasn't invited to Spring Training. Did he go train or play someplace or did he just sit at home and cash the checks?

[SoxSport]

The Sox have signed a ton of trainwrecked pitchers the last couple of years on the cheap. You would think at least one would pan out. They were better off throwing mud against the wall.

 

Go back a few years in their history, and it seems evident the Sox have not placed a high enough priority on pitching. They'll spend $20 mil on Crawford or AdGon, but they won't spend $20 mil on Halladay or Sabathia. Somebody made a point of this in the Globe. And it's a valid one.

 

That's it in a nutshell, folks.

[sgtnull]

time to start culling the roster. Beckett may have some sort of market. can we void Crawford's contract or let the insurance handle it? Middlebrooks needs to stay.

[SoxSport]

Some good things in Cafardo's column:

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2012/05/ask_nick_does_y.html

 

Thinks the time has come for Middlebrooks. Also says Iggy and Lav should be up, too.

Says he sees too many 4A players on the team right now. Needs some young blood.

That's been a sense for some of us all along.

 

Also says Youks should be used like Michael Young when he gets back--spread around different positions.

 

Says this is not the time to evaluate V. Too many key players injured.

 

What about the Front Office, Nick? Time to go after them? When does Ben's free ride end?

[mvp 78]

Everyday is time to evaluate BV. Sorry your binky is sucking, Nick.

[redsoxfan3]

I am not against bringing up Lavs and Iggy. The only problem is who would go to AAA? I am not against getting rid of Youk, D-Mac, and either Salty or Shop to make room for both Iggy and Lavs. The team would not want to carry three catchers. At this point, I want to keep Nava over D-Mac and then when Ells returns, he can go back to AAA. I think that we should go younger and get these guys some playing time now. Realistically Middlebrooks is our 3B of the future, Lavarnway is our C of the future, and Iglesias could be our SS of the future if he can hit decently at the Major League level. Also, what do we do with Aviles? Do we use him as trade bait or do we keep him around as a backup?

[redsoxbeatz]

To start with, we can hope our key hitters get better, which they will. Wait for our regular outfielders to come back. Have a SP perform better. Our BP recently hasn't been too bad.

 

In other words, patience. I don't give a s*** what the record is now. It's May. This is the same s*** as last year. People who think they'll perform like this all season don't know s***.

 

I like this.

[SoxSport]

Time for Henry to sell the team. They need a bigger shakeup than just unloading Theo and Tito.

 

That means they need new leadership in the front office--a change in philosophy.

[FredLynn]

I like this.

 

Feel free to adopt that attitude.

Others feel that people who think things will somehow change don't know s***.

[Dojji]

The Sox have signed a ton of trainwrecked pitchers the last couple of years on the cheap. You would think at least one would pan out. They were better off throwing mud against the wall.

 

Go back a few years in their history, and it seems evident the Sox have not placed a high enough priority on pitching. They'll spend $20 mil on Crawford or AdGon, but they won't spend $20 mil on Halladay or Sabathia. Somebody made a point of this in the Globe. And it's a valid one.

 

That's it in a nutshell, folks.

 

If anything they placed too high a priority on pitching in FA. Our lineup has been rotting from the middle on down for years while they sign Mike Camerons to plug the gap. We essentially replaced Manny with Crawford, which is a very expensive downgrade, and we went from looking for the ideal 5 hole hitter and a leadoff guy to hunting desperately for a decent cleanup man to sandwich in between Gonzo and Papi and maybe another power hitter after that to stretch out the lineup. To the point that we were trading real assets for 2-3 year options like V-Mart instead of actually addressing the real problem with the resources we had available.

 

We should not be as dependent on Gonzo as we are. Back in 07 Manny slumped for most of the first month and made up for it as the year went on, and Pedroia had a tough first month, but we were able to role behind Lowell, Youk, and Papi until they really got going. We don't have the depth of secondary hitters we need to have an elite lineup right now.

[jung]

In truth we neither have enough good starting pitching nor enough offense.

[Dojji]

In truth every team in major league baseball can say the exact same thing.

 

The perennial contender BS was just that. We never actually revitalized the core during the run from 02-now. How can you, when you bring players in who are pretty much the same age as the guys who went out? And we did that with Drew, V-Mart, Bay etc. until we reached a critical mass where too many of our guys were too old to allow for simple fixes.

 

It doesn't help when almost every big signing you've made over a 4 year stretch blows up in your face. But that's just ordinary luck, and us having less of it than we did in 04-07.

[FredLynn]

In truth every team in major league baseball can say the exact same thing.

 

The perennial contender BS was just that. We never actually revitalized the core during the run from 02-now. How can you, when you bring players in who are pretty much the same age as the guys who went out? And we did that with Drew, V-Mart, Bay etc. until we reached a critical mass where too many of our guys were too old to allow for simple fixes.

 

It doesn't help when almost every big signing you've made over a 4 year stretch blows up in your face. But that's just ordinary luck, and us having less of it than we did in 04-07.

 

In truth, only one team in the league has worse pitching than we do. That, as everyone knows, is the bottom line. It was known this offseason and not addressed. We have plenty of offense. Even with our injured players out for extended periods of time we are still second in runs scored in the AL.

But our pitching is of Little League quality. While its too late to do anything about it this year, its time to jettison the underperforming pieces of our franchise and plan for the distant future when we can compete for another ring.

[Dojji]

There's a lot of luck in play there. None of those pitchers had to be as bad as they are right now. Tear apart the team's offseason planning because the rubber never hit the road, that's fine, but pretending that they didn't do quite a bit to build up the pitching staff over Theo's tenure is retarded.

[Ghost Of Theo]

This team cannot be fixed unless there is a major overhaul in ideology.

 

There is no focus on baseball.

The farm system sucks.

They won't spend SMART money on GOOD players.

It's all about bricks and coffee table books and 100 years of the dump that is known as Fenway Park.

Ben Cherrington is a joke. Nay. A Robot.

Bobby V was the wrong guy at the right time for someone else.

Beckett has to go.

Same for Youk.

Ortiz, while having a good year, will bitch when it comes time for interleague play and he's not getting ABs. Let him go after the year is finished. You can't have complainers when you are trying to fix a big problem.

How about the health and conditioning staff? Why do guys keep getting hurt? Better yet, why do guys like Beckett show up to camp looking like f***ing Homer Simpson.

 

Really though, in the end, this team is doomed until Henry and company sell the team.

[jacksonianmarch]

You had a good run, but your GM and team president got away from what made them win 2 titles in 4 yrs. The 2004 title was a purchased title, but you purchased it with smart money (Manny was smart money) and with minor league talent (for Pedro and Schilling). But 2007 was the model that the team was supposed to stick to. Young talent coming up with shrewd signings and the occasional big signing (JD Drew). By 2012, you have DiceK, Lackey, Crawford, Gonzalez, Jenks, etc all in for more than almost the entire team sans Manny was making in that time.

 

You need to get back to your base. The PR from signing one humongous contract goes right out the window if that player comes in and sucks. The sox were never really built to out-price the Yankees, and in order to fix this, you will have to go above and beyond where the Yankees are in terms of payroll, which just isnt feasible with the new rules going into play next yr. So, you have to get back to basics. Here are a few ways to do so.

 

1. The Beckett situation. When on, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. That is fact. When off, he is a prickly prima donna who throws BP. He seems to always overextend himself one yr and then recoil the next. This is the recoil yr. In order to rebuild properly, you must get value for your players, giving guys away on the cheap will only hurt you in the long run. You may get an initial boost in chemistry with him gone, but the overall loss of talent will hurt. Plus, who do you replace him with? If I were V, I'd discipline him with a suspension and then get him out there and leave him alone. If he can run off 5-6 starts where he looks like Beckett again, see if you can get someone to take him for even value.

 

2. Youkilis- if the goal is to "blow it up" then you must start Youk at third the next few weeks. Push WMB into LF or the minors or whatever. You build up his value and if he can hit, you deal him away for something tangible instead of a salary dump. A .900OPS hitter is worth something, even if he proves to be that for a 4-6 weeks stretch instead of the whole yr

 

3. Crawford, Lackey, AdGon- these contracts are unmoveable. I'd do what it takes to get Crawford completely, 100% healthy for 2013. If he rushes back, he will injure something else and potentially be recovering from another surgery (elbow maybe) come 2013. Lackey might get some value back next yr if he shows renewed velocity and location after his UCL is repaired. If he doesnt and continues on in pinata mode, you wont have much choice but to keep him around. AdGon also needs to be kept. You have many yrs left with him, you might as well see what he can do

 

4. Papi- a rebuilding team does not need a 36 yr old DH. Also, at $14.5 mil, he is too risky once again to accept arb and get another big raise. Might be time to move him while his stock is high. Who gives a s*** who he moves on to. You wont get a prime prospect since, like I said, he is a 36 yr old DH, but he might fetch you some B level prospects who could fill out the back of your rotation or even blossom into a starting position player. You know he cannot do this for too much longer, might as well cash in on it now while the sox are wasting his production

 

5. Lester- he has been mediocre for 18 starts now. He still has the stuff, but has lost the command. You must keep him. If he figures it out and your team sinks to new lows, he will end up getting a MASSIVE haul of prospects in a deal. Or he could headline a rebuilt rotation

 

6. Buchholz- he needs to go to AAA. You are invested in him long term and something isnt right with him. He seems to have a followers mentality and without strong will, it is hard to come through in times of strife. It might be better for him to go to a low pressure environment for a little while, dominate and get his confidence back. He also needs to do a little more arm strengthening OR change his philosophy. His method of pitching doesnt work at 90mph, it worked very well at 95.

 

7. Pedroia- the heart and soul of a bruised team. He could probably fetch you the most, but whenever you rebuild, you need to rebuild around SOMETHING. And he and AdGon would be the rocks in the linep you build around.

 

8. Philosophy- Theo got away from the philosophy that worked so well in prior seasons when he signed Lackey, Crawford and AdGon after the deal. He preached roster flexibility, farm system and low cost signings. When he spent, he didnt spend in a way that killed the team (JD Drew comes to mind) should the player fail. He was willing to deal malcontents to make a point (Manny and Garciaparra). After winning 2 here, he took what he thought was the safe route with "can't miss" players who tied up all the resources. Now, with the new cap rules, he hamstrung the team that fell apart like a house of cards due to inefficiency and injury. The way to get back there is to do what he did early on. Signing a guy like Ross will do that for you, but they need to get even further back to their roots. Sign some high OBP guys off the FA market, even if they dont have power or average or whatever. Where are the Bellhorn's, the Mueller's, the Millar's, etc? You need to start discovering them again, guys who arent cornerstones, but fit expertly around a solid middle of the order. You have AdGon, you have a developing power guy in WMB and you have a 1 time MVP in Pedroia. You also have a guy like Ellsbury who will eventually come back and should be able to hit enough to move down in the order into a power slot. The other thing Theo did early on was expertly manuever the farm system. The sox never seemed to have the #1 farm system, but he found a way to bring up 1 prospect per yr who turned into gold. Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, etc. Every yr there was one prospect that made it big. You havent seen that lately. You have Bard out of place, Doubront who doesnt look like a prime time player and other cups of coffee who havent panned out. There needs to be more emphasis on the later rounds of the draft as well. The sox seem content to make the big splashes, but the back of their top 10 round players and beyond have been barren sans Jacobs. They need to make every pick count and rebuild a farm system studded with the occasional solid prospect and filled in with s***.

 

Overall, the sox changed philosophy and it has started to unravel. The fix is to not actually make the big headline moves. But to turn the little, shrewd moves into headline players by good scouting and development.

[redsoxbeatz]

^^^^ way too much input from a Yankees fan for my taste, good advice or not.

[jacksonianmarch]

^^^^ way too much input from a Yankees fan for my taste' date=' good advice or not.[/quote']

 

You need to be able to see things from the other side sometimes too.

[Laser Show]

Clay Buchholz finished second in the American League with a 2.33 ERA just 2 years ago. Thanks to his current 9.37 ERA, Buchholz would need to throw 95 consecutive scoreless innings to get his ERA down to that level.

 

Easy peasy, Japanesey.

[a700hitter]

Clay Buchholz finished second in the American League with a 2.33 ERA just 2 years ago. Thanks to his current 9.37 ERA' date=' Buchholz would [b']need to throw 95 consecutive scoreless innings[/b] to get his ERA down to that level.

 

Easy peasy, Japanesey.

Wow!

[Laser Show]

More Buchholz stats at http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/19005/w2w4-breaking-down-buchholz

 

There's some that just make you say "Wtf?"

[FredLynn]

^^^^ way too much input from a Yankees fan for my taste' date=' good advice or not.[/quote']

 

I think its an excellent analysis, regardless of where it comes from.

[Brennan]

You need to be able to see things from the other side sometimes too.

 

 

Right dude but don't talk to us about "Purchased Titles", Yeah we screwed the pooch when we first decided to open the checkbook and compete with our division rival, George Steinbrenner's checkbook, but if anything we just beat you guys at your own game. Both of our teams are now in ruins for the most part, I think ludicrous spending to win titles has run it's course with these two organizations. Look at all the teams better than us that spend half the money.

 

I do have to say though, I would love to see your critique of the yankees player by player as well.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Have to agree with pretty much everything jacko said and I think the biggest point is #8. 2007 was THE model and since then they have diverged from that and whats left is the highly rigid roster we have now.

 

Though I disagree that Gonzalez was a divergence from the philosophy. The team realized that it would be near impossible to produce a true franchise player like that which is why they tried desperately to land Tex back when he was a FA. He was the best hitting and fielding 1B in the AL last year and absolutely the type of guy worth a mega contract given his consistency (I guarantee his OPS is over .900 at seasons end).

 

What stands out as the moves that go absolutely against the philosophy are Crawford and Lackey, who are currently tying up 35 mil each year for the next three years (and beyond). These are two players who this team, under the correct philosophy, should be able to produce through the minor league system. That's the difference between those guys and say Gonzalez. There is no Gonzalez coming through the pipeline, but I think out of Ranuado/Barnes and Bogaerts/Bradley Jr/Kalish there is a pitcher who could give 200 innings at 3.80 ERA ball and equivalent level production to Crawford.

 

Finally Beckett is the key to this team. Lester/Buchholz have always been highly susceptible to what he does as a player and when he doesn't give a f***, then no one does. When you're supposed fiercest competitor is indifferent to his actions on and off the field then there's a problem. And I don't think Bobby V has enough pull to change that, Beckett needs to do it himself or this team is seriously toast.

[ellsburyforMVP]

You need to be able to see things from the other side sometimes too.

 

Hmmm a Yankee fan wanting us to get rid of our 2 best players ( papi and petey ) ??? :thumbdown

 

Newsflash!!!! The yanks aren't playing much better... Maybe they should see what they could get for cc, cano and granderson??? :thumbsup:

[example1]

Overall, the sox changed philosophy and it has started to unravel. The fix is to not actually make the big headline moves. But to turn the little, shrewd moves into headline players by good scouting and development.

 

I like your write up.

 

I am not sure what you provided was really a remedy for their current struggles as much as it was a reminder to just slow things down and wait it out. That seems the only reasonable approach, except that at some point they are going to need to make some pretty significant moves to get the next generation of stars to build around.

 

Whereas 2-3 years ago we could look at the list and predict that teams would be waiting for Fielder, Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez, I'm not sure who that next group (or individual) player might be.

 

And as much s*** as the FO gets for signing Crawford, I don't see that as a terrible move as far as the thinking behind it goes. Crawford was consistently productive in Tampa. His complete collapse was unpredictable, as was his injury. It was an absolute worst case scenario.

 

If I were them I wouldn't shy away from going after the guys they think would be best for the team, I just wouldn't do ANY moves based on the fanbases' desire for a splashy move. I think that's what they started to do over the past few years and it bit them in the ass.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys have your heads in your asses if you think we arent playing much better. We are 3 over .500 and 2 games back of TB and Baltimore in the L column with Pettitte coming through the pipe on Sunday. Plus, I am not sure you have figured out, but we actually have an ace, as well as a guy who has lost 2 games in a calendar yr (Nova) as well as a guy with a sub 4 ERA on the season in Kuroda. Plus, we actually have a pen, even with Mo out, and our offense has been dead most of the yr even though we are third in the AL in runs scored with minimal contribution from Cano or Tex. I have said this once and I will say it again, we are winning the AL East

[jacksonianmarch]

I like your write up.

 

I am not sure what you provided was really a remedy for their current struggles as much as it was a reminder to just slow things down and wait it out. That seems the only reasonable approach, except that at some point they are going to need to make some pretty significant moves to get the next generation of stars to build around.

 

Whereas 2-3 years ago we could look at the list and predict that teams would be waiting for Fielder, Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez, I'm not sure who that next group (or individual) player might be.

 

And as much s*** as the FO gets for signing Crawford, I don't see that as a terrible move as far as the thinking behind it goes. Crawford was consistently productive in Tampa. His complete collapse was unpredictable, as was his injury. It was an absolute worst case scenario.

 

If I were them I wouldn't shy away from going after the guys they think would be best for the team, I just wouldn't do ANY moves based on the fanbases' desire for a splashy move. I think that's what they started to do over the past few years and it bit them in the ass.

 

Well, soon it is going to be about breaking the bank to keep guys like Lester, Pedroia and Ellsbury, so they wont be able to really break the bank any further with guys like AdGon and Crawford on the docket for the next 5 yrs. Eventually, a decision will need to be made.