Enter: Will Middlebrooks

[jung]

I would rather see them try WMB in the outfield than short. Not playing any pro ball at short means he has never turned a DP at short in the pros. Ya' really want to see guys barreling into WMB to take him out of the DP for the first time in his career here....now??? I would say that I would not have much interest in seeing that. I am kinda' surprised that they have not apparently even tried him in the outfield as yet.

 

He would have to show real comfort at SS for me to have interest in seeing that and at least what I have heard today is not optimistic in that regard.

[evilhand]

Pumpsie, you're ignoring the fact that Youk is hitting like he's hit for most of his career again. He was injured in the second half last year and in April this year. You're cherry picking the worst possible sample to discount the fact that Youk is looking like the Youk that was an MVP contender for several years in a row once again.

 

He has a long history of hitting this well, not just nine games. There is every reason to think that Middlebrooks is going to come back down to Earth at the very least, and likely slump at some point as well.

 

Yes, he's the future at third base, but if this team wants to try and win a title before starting to transition to the next generation, keeping Youk makes a lot of sense. Sure, they miss out on bringing in a couple of advanced prospects to aid in the youth movement, but they'll pick up two draft picks this winter when he walks after his option is declined and he turns down arbitration. So the loss there is mitigated significantly.

 

I think it's in their best interest to hedge their bets with him and hold onto the last few months of production they can get while picking up to draft picks rather than cashing him in for prospects now.

 

They may not think this is a title contender, or they may think the offense is so good when healthy that they can win without Youk, and those are both valid viewpoints. But I think people have blinders on with regard to Middlebrooks to some degree. He's not going to give this team the bat that Youk provides, even if he keeps up the power. He just doesn't have the patience or the plate discipline.

 

Also just my opinion, but it feels like people are either missing or ignoring Middlebrooks' warts while being too focused on the last 8 months or so with Youk.

 

And keep in mind that holding onto Youk and stashing Middlebrooks when Pedroia comes back will allow the Sox to rest Youk down the stretch to get him to the playoffs healthy and fresh.

[FredLynn]

Pumpsie, you're ignoring the fact that Youk is hitting like he's hit for most of his career again. He was injured in the second half last year and in April this year. You're cherry picking the worst possible sample to discount the fact that Youk is looking like the Youk that was an MVP contender for several years in a row once again.

 

He has a long history of hitting this well, not just nine games. There is every reason to think that Middlebrooks is going to come back down to Earth at the very least, and likely slump at some point as well.

 

Yes, he's the future at third base, but if this team wants to try and win a title before starting to transition to the next generation, keeping Youk makes a lot of sense. Sure, they miss out on bringing in a couple of advanced prospects to aid in the youth movement, but they'll pick up two draft picks this winter when he walks after his option is declined and he turns down arbitration. So the loss there is mitigated significantly.

 

I think it's in their best interest to hedge their bets with him and hold onto the last few months of production they can get while picking up to draft picks rather than cashing him in for prospects now.

 

They may not think this is a title contender, or they may think the offense is so good when healthy that they can win without Youk, and those are both valid viewpoints. But I think people have blinders on with regard to Middlebrooks to some degree. He's not going to give this team the bat that Youk provides, even if he keeps up the power. He just doesn't have the patience or the plate discipline.

 

Also just my opinion, but it feels like people are either missing or ignoring Middlebrooks' warts while being too focused on the last 8 months or so with Youk.

 

And keep in mind that holding onto Youk and stashing Middlebrooks when Pedroia comes back will allow the Sox to rest Youk down the stretch to get him to the playoffs healthy and fresh.

 

Hey, you know I respect your opinion here. But I think that you are ignoring the fact that he is, in fact, injured a lot. I believe that is because he is playing a more demanding position in the field now. His body type is not well suited for 3B. IMO he will produce in spurts, but his overall effectiveness will not resemble what it was when he was in his prime. If we could package him with another player to get Garza I would do that in a minute; Dempster would also help. I am not overestimating what Middlebrooks is likely to give us. It will probably not be like Youk in his prime, but it will almost certainly be better than the Youk since last ASB, warts and all. If we can get value for Youkilis now we ought to do it. I think that is what will end up happening, unless he makes some sort of dramatic offensive comeback that is consistent.

[User Name]

This is all probably moot, since the Red Sox are shopping Youk apparently:

 

Red Sox are shopping Kevin Youkilis.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is all probably moot, since the Red Sox are shopping Youk apparently:

 

Red Sox are shopping Kevin Youkilis.

 

I talked about this a little in the Trade Deadline board and there have been a few responses, just FYI if you're interested. I didn't know whether to post here or there.

[User Name]

Yeah i just saw it.

[evilhand]

Hey' date=' you know I respect your opinion here. But I think that you are ignoring the fact that he is, in fact, injured a lot. I believe that is because he is playing a more demanding position in the field now. His body type is not well suited for 3B. IMO he will produce in spurts, but his overall effectiveness will not resemble what it was when he was in his prime. If we could package him with another player to get Garza I would do that in a minute; Dempster would also help. I am not overestimating what Middlebrooks is likely to give us. It will probably not be like Youk in his prime, but it will almost certainly be better than the Youk since last ASB, warts and all. If we can get value for Youkilis now we ought to do it. I think that is what will end up happening, unless he makes some sort of dramatic offensive comeback that is consistent.[/quote']

 

Garza is probably too good a return to turn down since he's under control beyond this year. If they can pull off a trade that only sends out Youk and brings back Garza, I wouldn't complain about it. Dempster is a nice piece for this year, but what the Sox are giving up there is Youk and two picks. Under the new CBA, they won't get picks for Dempster if they offer arb and he walks since he'd have been picked up mid season. That's a lot for a half season of a pitcher and nothing more.

 

I'm not saying Youk can't be traded no matter what, just that the return likely won't be something that maximizes their assets this year and long term.

 

And I know disagreeing with me doesn't suggest you don't respect my opinion. I hope you don't think my disagreeing with you means I don't respect yours. Reasonable minds can disagree and do so civily.

[jung]

With 1,2 and 3 in the rotation still something of a bag of fortune cookies.....crack one open each start and see what ya' got tonight, I am not sure it matters all that much. Beckett has been the most dependable of the three by a long shot and he is not really all that dependable.

 

The real problem is that the opportunity to really get something for Youk has probably passed. However if in fact they could come out of a Youk deal on the plus side of the ledger, then I would be willing to trade him and hand 3rd to WMB. In truth WMB could still be your post season 3rd baseman if the Sox get there. I would likely not be willing to do it if all I could do was end up with one of these even-steven kinds of deals.

 

The only teams interested in Youk are going to be teams that are trying to get to the promised land and have a hole to fill. Youk has come back and proven that he can play. Anybody can get injured and sure Youk has been vulnerable to injury for a few years now and this year's would be the most disconcerting of them. The kind of back issue Youk has is not something that heals. It is something you are controlling for the rest of your life. Fine when not hurting and way not fine when hurting.

 

Anyway teams interested will have a hole that they need to fill. I would have no interest in solving their problem for them unless I can come out of the deal decidedly ahead. I have no interest in an equal value deal. Give up more than you are getting Mr. Other Team GM and we will talk. Try to play me short or even, go waste somebody else's time.

[User Name]

Is WMB enough of a defensive upgrade to justify trading Youkilis? Because there's no way Middlebrooks sniffs Youkilis' on-base abilities. He probably has more present power and better contact skills right now, but is it worth it?

[Dojji]

If they're shopping Youk, then it's clear the FO thinks so.

[jung]

I think trading Youk would be worth it IF as I said earlier, the Sox can come out of the deal decidedly ahead. Try to play me short....no deal....try to go even-steven for Youk....no deal. Be willing to give me enough so that I have without question gotten more value back for Youk than I gave up and we can talk.

 

If the Sox are not "shopping" Youk with this in mind I am going to be extremely disappointed.

[User Name]

If they're shopping Youk' date=' then it's clear the FO thinks so.[/quote']

 

Youkilis is gone after the year anyway, which makes it seem even more sensible to trade him.

[evilhand]

Is WMB enough of a defensive upgrade to justify trading Youkilis? Because there's no way Middlebrooks sniffs Youkilis' on-base abilities. He probably has more present power and better contact skills right now' date=' but is it worth it?[/quote']

 

This is the thing people need to keep in mind. Middlebrooks is a completely different type of hitter. Youk has always been extremely good at reaching base. He's patient, has incredible strike zone judgement and discipline and can drive the ball. Middlebrooks strikes out at en extremely high rate, never walks and can crush the ball. His OBP will always be BA dependent, which means it's going to fluctuate a lot.

 

He can be a really valuable third baseman, so please don't take this as me crapping in the punchbowl, but right now Youk is a better player overall and it's not really that close.

 

As the more athletic and less injury prone player, Middlebrooks makes up some of the ground lost at the plate, but I wouldn't call him the better defender yet. He still makes too many rookie mistakes. That'll get better as he matures, but for this year, I'd rather have Youk at the hot corner. Long term it's Middlebrooks' job, of course, but I think this team has a real chance to win a title this year and should try to maximize that chance before the turnover toward younger players begins.

[evilhand]

Youkilis is gone after the year anyway' date=' which makes it seem even more sensible to trade him.[/quote']

 

This isn't as obvious a choice as it was in previous years, though. The new CBA makes trading for an expiring contract less valuable, as you won't get a draft pick return like you used to. Youk plus two picks is worth a lot. Getting back a return that eclipses that is going to be tough.

[User Name]

I don't see how Youkilis is a better defender than WMB at the moment.

[User Name]

Predictably: Cherington says Youkilis trade reports innacurate

[evilhand]

I don't see how Youkilis is a better defender than WMB at the moment.

 

It comes down to the mistakes Middlebrooks makes on a regular basis. It seems like every game he does at least one thing that leaves you scratching your head. He's a rookie, that's to be expected. Youk doesn't have the range Middlebrooks has, but he's likely to be a more accurate thrower, more steady with the glove and better at decision making for the rest of the season.

 

Long term, Middlebrooks is a better option in the field, but he's a rookie and thus will continue to make rookie mistakes.

[User Name]

So you think he won't improve enough this year to get past those mistakes?

[SoxFanForsyth]

It comes down to the mistakes Middlebrooks makes on a regular basis. It seems like every game he does at least one thing that leaves you scratching your head. He's a rookie, that's to be expected. Youk doesn't have the range Middlebrooks has, but he's likely to be a more accurate thrower, more steady with the glove and better at decision making for the rest of the season.

 

Long term, Middlebrooks is a better option in the field, but he's a rookie and thus will continue to make rookie mistakes.

 

WMB will make some rookie mistakes, sure, but he's got much, much better range than Youkilis. I don't even think it's close in terms of Youk v WMB. The diving stop that WMB made against the Rays on the line drive, Youk doesn't sniff. Against (I believe) the Twins, there was a ball that was chopped that Middlebrooks had to jump to get that Youk wouldn't have made, etc. I've seen quite a few balls that Middlebrooks has ranged for that Youk wouldn't have gotten.

 

It's like comparing Aviles to Iglesias. Iggy will make rookie mistakes, but he's a much better defender than Aviles.

[evilhand]

So you think he won't improve enough this year to get past those mistakes?

 

I didn't say that. I said he'll continue to make mistakes this year. I also think people are underestimating Youk's defense. He's not Mike Lowell out there.

 

Edit: Youk was at -3.7 UZR/150 last year, -2.7 total. That puts him at slightly below average. Middlebrooks doesn't have enough time in the field for his UZR to mean anything, but so far has been worse than Youk on the season. He's at -19.7 UZR/150 so far (-2.6 total). What that means is that the mistakes he's made have skewed him well into the negative because the small sample size hasn't had a chance to normalize the data. But it does illustrate that for all the range he has on Youk, it hasn't yet translated to an overall advantage.

 

I think he could end up a better defender on the year, but he's going to have to cut back on the mistakes sharply to pull that off. Again, people underestimate Youk because he's been banged up lately which is frustrating.

 

But he's still one of the best players in the majors when healthy.

[Dojji]

I didn't say that. I said he'll continue to make mistakes this year. I also think people are underestimating Youk's defense. He's not Mike Lowell out there.

 

Mike Lowell was one of the best defenders at third base in Red Sox history until he got that hip injury that crippled his range. His reflexes were absolutely inhuman, and his ability to read the ball the moment a player hit it resulted in countless improbable outs. In 06 and 07 he was putting on a show on a nightly basis.

[evilhand]

Mike Lowell was one of the best defenders at third base in Red Sox history until he got that hip injury that crippled his range. His reflexes were absolutely inhuman' date=' and his ability to read the ball the moment a player hit it resulted in countless improbable outs. In 06 and 07 he was putting on a show on a nightly basis.[/quote']

 

I meant Mike Lowell in his last year with the team. Sorry for being sloppy about that.

[Dojji]

I know, I just hate the way a player's permanent reputation here is based on his last year in the uniform.

[Emmz]

I'm pretty sure that's not true. It's about 50/50, half the people here, if not more, probably remember Curt Schilling as the guy who pitched his ass off in 2004 for the Sox, and not the guy who basically got a bunch of easy money at the end of his career. Same could be said probably for Varitek, Wakefield and of course Lowell.

[FredLynn]

Is WMB enough of a defensive upgrade to justify trading Youkilis? Because there's no way Middlebrooks sniffs Youkilis' on-base abilities. He probably has more present power and better contact skills right now' date=' but is it worth it?[/quote']

 

Middlebrooks is impressive at the plate and has potential. But there's that word again. Potential. Its anyone's guess how is offensive contributions will progress in the future. I doubt he will turn into a Nick Punto; I doubt he will approach Youkilis' numbers when he was in his prime. Trading Youkilis for pitching would represent, hopefully, a philosophical difference in how the team plans to build a WC contender. You cannot just bash your way there. You need very good or excellent pitching. I think I would rather have more pitching and suffer a bit of a decline in offense with Middlebrooks vs Youkilis than vice versa. Maybe we could package Youk with Morales and possibly someone else for Garza, a proven SP. This team needs to get out of the mindset of offense first. It has to be pitching first. For the last three years our pitching has been mediocre. Hard to win a ring that way.

[evilhand]

I don't think the FO has an offense first approach so much as they've had their pitching moves fall short of their expectations. Locking up Lester and Beckett looked like a great move that would ensure they had two aces for the next half decade when it happened. Clay Buchholz liked like a front of the rotation starter in 2010. They drafted Raunado to be a front of the rotation type starter, same with Barnes. That Beckett and Lester have been less than consistent this year and Clay has forgotten how to pitch does not indicate that the team is trying to mash its way into the World Series. It shows us that pitching is tough to predict.

[seabeachfred]

You take this s*** so personally SBF. "Red hot furious" about how they are treating a rookie? That's pretty extreme. I would hate to see how you get when something actually important comes your way...

 

Anyway, there are many competing factors at play here. Not the least of which is that the Sox are hoping to maximize any return they can get for Youkilis. Will they get that by sitting him? No.

 

Also, it wouldn't do Bobby Valentine any good to suddenly start Adrian Gonzalez like a second-rate MLB baseball player. The guy is an elite talent, and managers don't treat elite talents like league journeymen. Ask Pujols. Ask Teixeira.

 

While you are s***ing on Adrian Gonzalez, I'm looking at a guy who is willing to move to RF so the team can maximize the lineup while the OF is injured. The guy deserves a lot of respect for doing that. He could have bitched and moaned and made a scene, but he didn't.

 

I suspect the end result will be:

 

-Adrian Gonzalez turns it around and finishes the season with a good OPS and stellar defensive play

-Kevin Youkilis will return something pretty good

-Middlebrooks will be in the lineup consistently

 

Let's stop assuming that the Sox are a bunch of dumbasses who don't know what they are doing, at least for a few minutes.

 

I got to hand it to you EX1, you can challenge me very well and still show class all the way even if I disagree with what you're sending back to me. Anger at the front office comes from my belief that they would risk not playing the best men in order to try to trade a player that might not be traded because of salary and Henry's refusal to eat any part of that contract. We've seen this scenario before in 2010 with Mike Lowell. There were four or five potential trades that went nowhere because Prune Face wouldn't eat any salary.

 

Besides, Youkilis has made injuries and the DL list a cottage industry the past two and half seasons and one more trip there negates any value he has unless we trade him now---which we can't because of Pedroia's injury. See the dilemma? I would still trade him NOW if we could because Middlebrooks is a big part of our future and needs to play and not be jerked around. You say Valentine cannot handle Gonzales like a spare part and I guess you are right on that, my bad. However, when you have a productive, high talented and a big upside ballplayer like Middlebrooks you play him. Still, I will hand it to you you know how to counter an argument you disagree with by still being very civil.

 

BTW though. Aren't you one of the "infamous three" on this board who insisted I was not a Red Sox fan when I came back on after a three year absence? I know 305 and MVP were the two others so if you are the last part of that triumvirate you need a mea culpa. I know damn well that you know who I root for now.

 

:):):)

[a700hitter]

You take this s*** so personally SBF. "Red hot furious" about how they are treating a rookie? That's pretty extreme. I would hate to see how you get when something actually important comes your way...

 

Anyway, there are many competing factors at play here. Not the least of which is that the Sox are hoping to maximize any return they can get for Youkilis. Will they get that by sitting him? No.

 

Also, it wouldn't do Bobby Valentine any good to suddenly start Adrian Gonzalez like a second-rate MLB baseball player. The guy is an elite talent, and managers don't treat elite talents like league journeymen. Ask Pujols. Ask Teixeira.

 

While you are s***ing on Adrian Gonzalez, I'm looking at a guy who is willing to move to RF so the team can maximize the lineup while the OF is injured. The guy deserves a lot of respect for doing that. He could have bitched and moaned and made a scene, but he didn't.

 

I suspect the end result will be:

 

-Adrian Gonzalez turns it around and finishes the season with a good OPS and stellar defensive play

-Kevin Youkilis will return something pretty good

-Middlebrooks will be in the lineup consistently

 

Let's stop assuming that the Sox are a bunch of dumbasses who don't know what they are doing, at least for a few minutes.

Baseball is full of dumbasses. It's not limited to the Red Sox.

[a700hitter]

Probably not. How many times did Gonzalez play RF before he got here? Or Youk in LF before he did that for the team? I admit that there will be a loss defensively' date=' but I think that unless he is a total clod out there at 2B he is preferable to having to witness the futility of Nick Punto at the plate.[/quote']In 2004, Tito put Mientkiewicz at 2B and he mad a very good DP right at the beginning of the game. There's no reason they can't take the defensive hit for a couple of games.

[SoxSport]

If I were trading for Youkilis, I would be looking for him to play 1B. He hasn't shown he can hold up physically at this point playing 3B, and is probably less valuable in trade as a 3rd baseman.