How about Daniel Bard so far?

[FredLynn]

I'm going to use Sandy Koufax as a comp for Bard. Like Bard' date=' Koufax threw hard. Like Bard, Koufax initially struggled as a starter. In 1956 he had a 4.91 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Pretty similar to Bard. Based on this I think it's clear that Bard is headed for the Hall of Fame.[/quote']

 

I'm going to use Joba Chamberlain. Like Bard, he was an exceptional RP. Both he and Bard are hard throwing RHH that didn't pitch in the neolithic period. Chamberlain is 26; Bard is 26. Both succeeded in the pen; both failed in the rotation. Very similar situations. Eventually the Yankees realized that Chamberlain is not a SP. Lets hope the Red Sox are as smart as the Yankees.

[FredLynn]

The latest AL stats today have the Sox no.2 in hitting and next to last in pitching. No.2 in hitting even with the injuries they've had in their lineup. Texas is no.1. The top pitching teams are Texas, Baltimore, Toronto, Oakland, and TB. Texas is no. 1 in hitting and pitching--clearly the best AL team.Nolan Ryan does it right.

 

The W-L records generally correlate with pitching, not hitting. It seems like the Red Sox management hasn't gotten that message. They continue to spend most of their money on hitting. This is the mentality of the early Yawkey teams that never won anything. When the Sox have won, they have won with pitching.

 

Three of the top 5 pitching teams are in the Red Sox division. They are all higher than the Sox right now.

Unless there is a pitching collapse with those teams, the Sox probably won't make the playoffs, no matter what happens with CC and Ells.

 

Are they satisfied with Bard's ERA/Whip numbers as a starter? If they are, it is maybe a symptom of the problem.

 

After Bailey's injury, the Sox effectively downgraded their bullpen by keeping Bard as a starter. And he hasn't been good enough as a starter to offset the downgrade. That's one of their problems in a nutshell.

 

Very good post. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell. Our FO is too incompetent to realize that pitching pitching pitching is what it takes to win rings. They haven't gotten the message for five years now; its safe to assume that they will never get the message. The fans, however, are getting the message and are finally voting with their feet. Hooray for the intelligent fans of the Boston Red Sox!

[ellsburyforMVP]

Very good post. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell. Our FO is too incompetent to realize that pitching pitching pitching is what it takes to win rings. They haven't gotten the message for five years now; its safe to assume that they will never get the message. The fans' date=' however, are getting the message and are finally voting with their feet. Hooray for the intelligent fans of the Boston Red Sox![/quote']

 

To be fair... If you take out the first couple weeks, or for that matter just the few major "implosions" we had, I know our pitching wouldn't be in the top 5 ( our bullpen prob would ) but we definitely wouldn't NOT be in the bottom 2...I'm willing to bet we'd be in the top 10-15?

 

Edit- I'm not saying our pitching situation is "fixed", but this early in the season, era can be majorly skewed from a few horrible outings

[example1]

I'm going to use Joba Chamberlain. Like Bard' date=' he was an exceptional RP. Both he and Bard are hard throwing RHH that didn't pitch in the neolithic period. Chamberlain is 26; Bard is 26. Both succeeded in the pen; both failed in the rotation. Very similar situations. Eventually the Yankees realized that Chamberlain is not a SP. Lets hope the Red Sox are as smart as the Yankees.[/quote']

 

You already chose Craig Hansen.

 

Joba could be getting closer, if it weren't for him perpetually being overweight and having a history of injury (shoulder issues dating back to 2008).

 

I would just say that declaring Bard a 'failure' in the rotation is premature, which is my main beef with you. If you have watched the games there are extended periods of consecutive innings in which Bard breezes through lineups. Generally he has had a bad inning or two that sink him, particularly with a loss of command.

 

I'm concerned about his velocity more than anything. However, after his last start he had a 4.30 ERA. That's just not that bad for a #5 starter.

 

For what it's worth, in his first two seasons in Toronto (325.2 IP), Brandon Morrow had a 4.62 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.

 

If he had been with the Red Sox, you would have declared that he had "flamed out" 7 starts into his career as a starter.

[Dojji]

Very good post. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell. Our FO is too incompetent to realize that pitching pitching pitching is what it takes to win rings. They haven't gotten the message for five years now; its safe to assume that they will never get the message. The fans' date=' however, are getting the message and are finally voting with their feet. Hooray for the intelligent fans of the Boston Red Sox![/quote']

 

This is just plain flat out ridiculous, I'm sorry.

 

How many opportunities have we even had to upgrade the pitching? People keep chanting this mantra and it keeps being as disconnected from reality as it ever was. If there was a Magic Wand Of Fix The Rotation, of course they'd be waving it. It's not nearly that easy. No, not even for a big market team.

 

If it was about aligning spending priorities or something I'd be more sympathetic to this argument. The problem with their rotation is NOT for lack of resources committed. They have the most talented group of underacheivers money can buy right now.

 

Certainly you can blast them for WHO they acquire, but to allege that this team doesn't care about pitching or isn't motivated to fix the rotation is to live in a fairytale dreamland. The players we have need to live up to their ability.

[Spitball]

I'm concerned about his velocity more than anything. However, after his last start he had a 4.30 ERA. That's just not that bad for a #5 starter.

 

For what it's worth, in his first two seasons in Toronto (325.2 IP), Brandon Morrow had a 4.62 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.

 

If he had been with the Red Sox, you would have declared that he had "flamed out" 7 starts into his career as a starter.

 

But Morrow was striking out about 10.5 per 9 and walking about 2.82 per 9 in those first two seasons. Those are pretty good indicators. Bard is 5.5/9 and 5.3/9 which are not good.

 

For me, it isn't how Bard compares to Morrow or other number five starters. It is how Bard the starter compares to Bard the reliever.

[example1]

But Morrow was striking out about 10.5 per 9 and walking about 2.82 per 9 in those first two seasons. Those are pretty good indicators. Bard is 5.5/9 and 5.3/9 which are not good.

 

For me, it isn't how Bard compares to Morrow or other number five starters. It is how Bard the starter compares to Bard the reliever.

 

He also had 19 K in his first 18.2 IP as a starter, with a FB velocity that was quite a bit higher than it is now. I suspect injury or early arm fatigue, which explains th eloss of velocity, loss of effectiveness of the FB and consequently of the slider.

 

Obviously if Bard can't figure out how to get a stronger arm then this whole discussion is moot.

[a700hitter]

He also had 19 K in his first 18.2 IP as a starter, with a FB velocity that was quite a bit higher than it is now. I suspect injury or early arm fatigue, which explains th eloss of velocity, loss of effectiveness of the FB and consequently of the slider.

 

Obviously if Bard can't figure out how to get a stronger arm then this whole discussion is moot.

He really can't be compared to Morrow and his development as a starter, because Morrow has maintained his velocity and been a big strikeout pitcher throughout his development.

[example1]

He really can't be compared to Morrow and his development as a starter' date=' because Morrow has maintained his velocity and been a big strikeout pitcher throughout his development.[/quote']

 

Ugh. The velocity is what I have pointed out every time as the confounding factor, but Bard had 6, 7 and 6 K's in his first 3 starts and it has dropped significantly after that. His velocity was higher in the beginning too.

 

Given that nobody can say why this happened I think it remains to be seen whether his recent dip is a blip or a reflection of Bard's lack of ability.

[Station 13]

Bard can't throw his slider, it most likely that his elbow is bothering him. Plus the velocity dropped also is a mystery to him as well. If his next start he can't get both to work, DL him.

[FredLynn]

Ugh. The velocity is what I have pointed out every time as the confounding factor, but Bard had 6, 7 and 6 K's in his first 3 starts and it has dropped significantly after that. His velocity was higher in the beginning too.

 

Given that nobody can say why this happened I think it remains to be seen whether his recent dip is a blip or a reflection of Bard's lack of ability.

 

I agree with you that the velocity drop is the most concerning aspect of Bard's lack of success as a SP. He no longer trusts his fastball and tries to be too fine. Last time he pitched I commented on the game thread how the first time through the lineup he was tossing soft junk up there and not establishing his fastball, which is too straight to be throwing at 92-93 mph anyway. Personally, I think he still has the capability to throw at 98+, but he paces himself during games. See how Aceves has INCREASED his velocity when he became a closer? He now knows that he is coming in for one inning, usually, and he can afford to just give every single pitch everything he has. My guess is that if Bard returned to the pen his velocity would return, and he would be an effective RP or even an effective closer. As a SP with a straight FB at 93, its not going to cut it, not unless the team is throwing up the white flag for this year and feels that by sacrificing this year Bard may become a good SP next year or the year after that.

[FredLynn]

This is just plain flat out ridiculous, I'm sorry.

 

How many opportunities have we even had to upgrade the pitching? People keep chanting this mantra and it keeps being as disconnected from reality as it ever was. If there was a Magic Wand Of Fix The Rotation, of course they'd be waving it. It's not nearly that easy. No, not even for a big market team.

 

If it was about aligning spending priorities or something I'd be more sympathetic to this argument. The problem with their rotation is NOT for lack of resources committed. They have the most talented group of underacheivers money can buy right now.

 

Certainly you can blast them for WHO they acquire, but to allege that this team doesn't care about pitching or isn't motivated to fix the rotation is to live in a fairytale dreamland. The players we have need to live up to their ability.

 

How many opportunities have we even had to upgrade the pitching?

 

Every single offseason and then some. The problem is that our FO cannot even distinguish good pitching from bad and has signed too many bums to long term deals: Lackey, Matsusaka, Jenks..and on and on and on. Also, they have allocated too much money to guys like Crawford so that when all is said and done, there is not enough money in the budget to obtain high quality pitching. Finally, their judgement during draft day has resulted in a virtual desert of pitchers ready to help this team any time soon. Even the Yankees have done better; certainly the Rays have. So the problem doesn't end with a lack of focus on pitching, it extends all the way to incompetence in judging talent. Face it: our FO hasn't got a clue how to run a major league team.

[Rdsxmbnt]

How many opportunities have we even had to upgrade the pitching?

 

Every single offseason and then some. The problem is that our FO cannot even distinguish good pitching from bad and has signed too many bums to long term deals: Lackey, Matsusaka, Jenks..and on and on and on. Also, they have allocated too much money to guys like Crawford so that when all is said and done, there is not enough money in the budget to obtain high quality pitching. Finally, their judgement during draft day has resulted in a virtual desert of pitchers ready to help this team any time soon. Even the Yankees have done better; certainly the Rays have. So the problem doesn't end with a lack of focus on pitching, it extends all the way to incompetence in judging talent. Face it: our FO hasn't got a clue how to run a major league team.

 

Hindsight is 20/20. I could easily go through ANY team and pick out a ton of moves that didn't work out.

 

How bout these moves:

-Aceves, 114 IP of 2.61 ball and a very legitimate fill in option as CL this year

-Salty, 27 year old .900+ OPS catcher at the moment

-Doubront, one of the best pitchers this year, recently home grown btw

-Hill, Miller, Atchison have all been under the radar pickups that have solidified this bullpen

-the team is down their 3 best OFs (Ellsbury, Crawford, Kalish) yet has three guys all with OPS over .800 filling in those spots (Sweeney, Ross, Nava)

 

That's 9 MLB players who are contributing significantly and basically ALL were under the radar moves that go under appreciated. I didn't even touch how they drafted and acquired the real core of this team (Pedroia, Lester, Beckett, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Middlebrooks).

 

So please continue to try to tell me they have no idea what they are doing.

[seabeachfred]

How many opportunities have we even had to upgrade the pitching?

 

Every single offseason and then some. The problem is that our FO cannot even distinguish good pitching from bad and has signed too many bums to long term deals: Lackey, Matsusaka, Jenks..and on and on and on. Also, they have allocated too much money to guys like Crawford so that when all is said and done, there is not enough money in the budget to obtain high quality pitching. Finally, their judgement during draft day has resulted in a virtual desert of pitchers ready to help this team any time soon. Even the Yankees have done better; certainly the Rays have. So the problem doesn't end with a lack of focus on pitching, it extends all the way to incompetence in judging talent. Face it: our FO hasn't got a clue how to run a major league team.

 

This argument could go on until the next decade Pumpsie but a simple fact is that BarF is NOT a starting pitcher, never was an effective one and never will be one. The stupidity of Cheringpuke on his matters boggles the imagination of how someone could be so berift in common sense. Bard is a good reliever, that is his forte. BarF is a miserable starting pitcher and should be sent back to the bullpen where he belongs. He is not going to get himself straightened out in my opinion because he is in a role that is not a good fit for him. And, please, enough with those of you who still insist the front office knows what its doing. It doesn't and the BarF problem demonstrates this completely.

 

Look, I'll open myself up to censure if he goes out there on Wednesday and knocks the Orioles off their feet, but chances are we are going to still be arguing about the merits of this guy as a starter. I just believe strongly t hat is not where he belongs.:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown

[FredLynn]

Hindsight is 20/20. I could easily go through ANY team and pick out a ton of moves that didn't work out.

 

How bout these moves:

-Aceves, 114 IP of 2.61 ball and a very legitimate fill in option as CL this year

-Salty, 27 year old .900+ OPS catcher at the moment

-Doubront, one of the best pitchers this year, recently home grown btw

-Hill, Miller, Atchison have all been under the radar pickups that have solidified this bullpen

-the team is down their 3 best OFs (Ellsbury, Crawford, Kalish) yet has three guys all with OPS over .800 filling in those spots (Sweeney, Ross, Nava)

 

That's 9 MLB players who are contributing significantly and basically ALL were under the radar moves that go under appreciated. I didn't even touch how they drafted and acquired the real core of this team (Pedroia, Lester, Beckett, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Bard, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Middlebrooks).

 

So please continue to try to tell me they have no idea what they are doing.

 

Happy to keep telling you that our FO has sucked for years. Every squirrel occasionally finds a nut; our FO found Aceves recently and got Ortiz, Foulke, Schilling, and Cabrera, all of whom helped win a ring in 04 (though much of the work in building that team had already been done). The FO also managed to find a few nuts along the way in the draft: Bard, Pedroia, and Ellsbury are examples. Youkilis was drafted in 2001; he is not a product of the good work of our current FO (I am referring to Epstein and Cherington, not whoever was there before them). Buchholtz? Are you kidding me? He has yet to prove himself. He has pitched but a single full season in excellence, and even then he tossed only 173 innings; his lifetime ERA with Boston is over 4, as is Beckett's ERA. And to get Beckett and Lowell we had to give up Hanley Ramirez-certainly not a one sided piece of brilliance on the part of Epstein.

Do you really expect Salty, owner of a career OPS of .725 to keep a .900+ OPS? Need I remind you that after the ASB last year his OPS plummeted to .682? He will regress; he's just not that good.

Doubront? Good start. Unproven as yet.

Miller? Please. If you are using Miller to bolster your arguement you know you are in trouble.

Now lets just list a few names off the top of my head that our brilliant FO signed whose level of talent was badly misjudged:

Byun-Hung-Kim, Matt Clement, Lenny DiNardo, John Halama, Craig Hanson, Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, Matt Mantei, Jason Johnson, David Pauley, Rudy Seanez, Willy Mo Pena, Bartolo Colon, Michael Bowden, Paul Byrd, Daisuke Matsusaka, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and more recently: Aaron Cook, Bobby Jenks, Justin Germano, Carlos Silva, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Scott Schoeneweis, Ross Ohlendorf........do I really need to go on? There are lots more.

Our FO, starting about 5 years ago, lost it. They misjudged talent regularly, handed out absurd long term contracts to players of mediocre talent, and have made a desert out of our minor league system in terms of ML ready pitchers. Thats a recipe for failure; it defines incompetence.

Finally, "the proof of the pudding is in the eating". How many playoff games did we play last year? How many did we play the year before that? How many are we likely to play this year? Where are we in the standings this year, and how is our pitching doing relative to the other AL teams? How was it last year? And how was it the year before that? How big is our budget compared to that of the Rays, who are beating us in the standing pretty regularly now? I don't want to hear about injuries either. All teams get them. Its a copout and an excuse to use that. HOW HAS OUR TEAM DONE THE LAST THREE YEARS??

So sure, any time you want me to continue to tell you that our FO doesn't know what they are doing, I would be more than happy to oblige.

[FredLynn]

This argument could go on until the next decade Pumpsie but a simple fact is that BarF is NOT a starting pitcher, never was an effective one and never will be one. The stupidity of Cheringpuke on his matters boggles the imagination of how someone could be so berift in common sense. Bard is a good reliever, that is his forte. BarF is a miserable starting pitcher and should be sent back to the bullpen where he belongs. He is not going to get himself straightened out in my opinion because he is in a role that is not a good fit for him. And, please, enough with those of you who still insist the front office knows what its doing. It doesn't and the BarF problem demonstrates this completely.

 

Look, I'll open myself up to censure if he goes out there on Wednesday and knocks the Orioles off their feet, but chances are we are going to still be arguing about the merits of this guy as a starter. I just believe strongly t hat is not where he belongs.:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown

 

Fred, most people here don't realize that you have more practical baseball experience than nearly anyone here. I value your judgement, even when I don't agree with it. In this case, I think you are spot on.

[Bellhorn04]

Finally, "the proof of the pudding is in the eating". How many playoff games did we play last year? How many did we play the year before that? How many are we likely to play this year? Where are we in the standings this year, and how is our pitching doing relative to the other AL teams? How was it last year? And how was it the year before that? How big is our budget compared to that of the Rays, who are beating us in the standing pretty regularly now? I don't want to hear about injuries either. All teams get them. Its a copout and an excuse to use that. HOW HAS OUR TEAM DONE THE LAST THREE YEARS??

 

We're 20-21 after 41 games. Last year the Rays were 30-29 after 59 games. So how did they do last year? Oh yeah right, they made the playoffs. Shouldn't you be limiting this to the 2 seasons that are in the books?

[Bellhorn04]

Fred' date=' most people here don't realize that you have more practical baseball experience than nearly anyone here. I value your judgement, even when I don't agree with it. In this case, I think you are spot on.[/quote']

 

That judgment can't be made by anybody after 7 major league starts. Maybe they convince Bard to be more aggressive and that results in him becoming a better starter. That kind of thing happens all the time. You and Fred both wrote off Andrew Miller as completely useless to us many times but in 2012 he's pitched 6.1 scoreless innings.

[VA Sox Fan]

That judgment can't be made by anybody after 7 major league starts. Maybe they convince Bard to be more aggressive and that results in him becoming a better starter. That kind of thing happens all the time. You and Fred both wrote off Andrew Miller as completely useless to us many times but in 2012 he's pitched 6.1 scoreless innings.

 

Thank you.

[seabeachfred]

That judgment can't be made by anybody after 7 major league starts. Maybe they convince Bard to be more aggressive and that results in him becoming a better starter. That kind of thing happens all the time. You and Fred both wrote off Andrew Miller as completely useless to us many times but in 2012 he's pitched 6.1 scoreless innings.

 

Whoopty freakin' do!!!!! He's thrown 6.1 scoreless innings so far this year. What a helluva long sample that is. Tell me about his work last season when he had eight or nine times as many innings and he stunk to high heaven. As I did with your pal over on the bush board, we can make a nice wager as to if BarF becomes a solid ML pitcher this year----say, maybe $500.00 dollars if he wins more than ten or 12 games, finishes over 500 and has an ERA under 4.50. He thought the same as you do about another player but wouldn't take the bet, just as you won't do. Just watch BarF pitch with your own eyes, watch his pitiful mechanics and how he almost is aiming the ball and letting up and hit pitches. Do that and stop spouting the front office party line. You're getting to sound like your fellow countryman CP who was demonstrated to know as much about baseball as you would on the head of a pin and still have enough room for the US Constitution. You're smarter than that. Just see for yourself how pathetic he is as a starter. This Wednesday you will see all you have to see. AND HE IS NOT GETTING BETTER; HE'S EITHER STAGNATING OR GOING BACKWARDS. Bob, he belongs in the bullpen.

[a700hitter]

Whoopty freakin' do!!!!! He's thrown 6.1 scoreless innings so far this year. What a helluva long sample that is. Tell me about his work last season when he had eight or nine times as many innings and he stunk to high heaven. As I did with your pal over on the bush board' date=' we can make a nice wager as to if BarF becomes a solid ML pitcher this year----say, maybe $500.00 dollars if he wins more than ten or 12 games, finishes over 500 and has an ERA under 4.50. He thought the same as you do about another player but wouldn't take the bet, just as you won't do. Just watch BarF pitch with your own eyes, watch his pitiful mechanics and how he almost is aiming the ball and letting up and hit pitches. Do that and stop spouting the front office party line. You're getting to sound like your fellow countryman CP who was demonstrated to know as much about baseball as you would on the head of a pin and still have enough room for the US Constitution. You're smarter than that. Just see for yourself how pathetic he is as a starter. This Wednesday you will see all you have to see. AND HE IS NOT GETTING BETTER; HE'S EITHER STAGNATING OR GOING BACKWARDS. Bob, he belongs in the bullpen.[/quote']Yes, I think he is going backward.

[Dojji]

Just see for yourself how pathetic he is as a starter. This Wednesday you will see all you have to see. AND HE IS NOT GETTING BETTER; HE'S EITHER STAGNATING OR GOING BACKWARDS. Bob' date=' he belongs in the bullpen.[/quote']

 

You're wrong. Frankly, Daniel Bard is, right now, a pretty solid #5 starter. He may have the potential for more, but right now, he's a good #5, which is all the team is asking him. I haven't seen Bard do anything I didn't see, say, Bronson Arroyo do, or Jon Lester in his first year back from cancer treatment, to name other times when we had really solid #5's.

 

The issue is right now that people are too hysterical about the bullpen and look at Bard, note that he's not perfect as a starter, and try to convince themselves that putting Bard back in the bullpen will Fix Everything, simply because it goes back to one thing they were comfortable with. It's pure psychology on the part of the fans.

 

Frankly Bard's performance has been better than I was worried it would be, even including the overhyped BS about the strikeout rate. Kid has shown the ability to go out there and gut it out through 5+ every night and for the most part he's kept the team in the game. It's not elite performances, but Bard's too raw to expect those, and what Bard is doing that I never expected, is finding ways to get deep into the game. I expected him to be too inefficient to do more than a 5-and-out most nights, instead he's been really good at pitching to contact and that's made up for the lack of K's and gotten him deeper into games than trying to overpower people would have. It displays a certain savvy, intelligence, and dare I say it, mental toughness, for a rookie starter, that I last saw in action while we were watching Jon Lester develop, and I take that from an inexperienced starter 10 days out of 10.

 

Bard's ERA isn't delicious, but he's gotten through the 6th inning more often than he hasn't. Combine that with a mid 4 ERA and he's really pitching like an average #3. Again, not elite, but better than the resident yammerers are willing to admit.

[Beaneater]

I am nothing like a baseball expert, but I have to agree with the Dojj here. As far as I recall, Bard has not been hit hard all year. Even when he has given up runs, it has often been flares and infield hits (which he can hardly help) and walks (which he can). I've said more than once this year that if he can stop putting guys on base he'll be unstoppable.

 

Admittedly, I haven't actually seen his starts (not exactly being in NESN's home territory ), and also I wouldn't know bad mechanics if they bit me on the rear. I'm just looking at the numbers, and the numbers seem to be saying that if he can limit the walks he will be all right.

[a700hitter]

You're wrong. Frankly, Daniel Bard is, right now, a pretty solid #5 starter. He may have the potential for more, but right now, he's a good #5, which is all the team is asking him. I haven't seen Bard do anything I didn't see, say, Bronson Arroyo do, or Jon Lester in his first year back from cancer treatment, to name other times when we had really solid #5's.

 

The issue is right now that people are too hysterical about the bullpen and look at Bard, note that he's not perfect as a starter, and try to convince themselves that putting Bard back in the bullpen will Fix Everything, simply because it goes back to one thing they were comfortable with. It's pure psychology on the part of the fans.

 

Frankly Bard's performance has been better than I was worried it would be, even including the overhyped BS about the strikeout rate. Kid has shown the ability to go out there and gut it out through 5+ every night and for the most part he's kept the team in the game. It's not elite performances, but Bard's too raw to expect those, and what Bard is doing that I never expected, is finding ways to get deep into the game. I expected him to be too inefficient to do more than a 5-and-out most nights, instead he's been really good at pitching to contact and that's made up for the lack of K's and gotten him deeper into games than trying to overpower people would have. It displays a certain savvy, intelligence, and dare I say it, mental toughness, for a rookie starter, that I last saw in action while we were watching Jon Lester develop, and I take that from an inexperienced starter 10 days out of 10.

 

Bard's ERA isn't delicious, but he's gotten through the 6th inning more often than he hasn't. Combine that with a mid 4 ERA and he's really pitching like an average #3. Again, not elite, but better than the resident yammerers are willing to admit.

The problem is that this staff doesn't have a big # 1 horse who will go deep into games, I.e. the 7th or 8th inning in most of his starts. A guy like that takes a tremendous amount of pressure off the pen and the rest of the staff. The Red Sox, at best have two number 2's and a 3. Some would argue that we have a 2, 3 and 4. A staff without 1 or 2 big innings eaters needs the bottom of its rotation to be better than it would need to be if we had a true ace and innings eater. The fact that Bard is doing as well as the average #5 is irrelevant, because this team needs an above average #5 if it wants to make a run at the playoffs. Another issue is that Bard is seemingly going backward as his velocity and performance is getting worse, not better. He's going to be shut down at some point-- probably at 150 innings. At that point, we will need another starter. Will that be Dice K? I'm not so sure. Finally, I think it is legitimate point of view that this is poor asset management--- taking a well above average/dominant reliever and turning him into an average #5 starter. I thought the long term plan was to turn him into an above average starter. He has shown no flashes of that yet. He has yet to put together a dominant performance. If all he is going to be is an average #5, I don't see the point of the experiment. There are plenty of those guys available.

[SoxSport]

He really can't be compared to Morrow and his development as a starter' date=' because Morrow has maintained his velocity and been a big strikeout pitcher throughout his development.[/quote']

 

Morrow started off strong like this last year--then lost his command. This year, maybe he'll keep it.

[Bellhorn04]

Finally' date=' I think it is legitimate point of view that this is poor asset management--- taking a well above average/dominant reliever and turning him into an average #5 starter. I thought the long term plan was to turn him into an above average starter. He has shown no flashes of that yet. He has yet to put together a dominant performance. If all he is going to be is an average #5, I don't see the point of the experiment. There are plenty of those guys available.[/quote']

 

I'm pretty sure they were, and still are, hoping for him to be better than an average #5. I would agree that if that's his ceiling then he'd be more valuable as a dominant reliever. I just think it's still a little early to make that determination.

[mvp 78]

Fred' date=' most people here don't realize that you have more practical baseball experience than nearly anyone here. I value your judgement, even when I don't agree with it. In this case, I think you are spot on.[/quote']

 

The problem is, his points get lost behind his verbiage. Reading his posts are like watching a blood pressure meter ready to explode. He has a lot of baseball knowledge but it tends to be hidden behind silliness like BarF.

[FredLynn]

That judgment can't be made by anybody after 7 major league starts. Maybe they convince Bard to be more aggressive and that results in him becoming a better starter. That kind of thing happens all the time. You and Fred both wrote off Andrew Miller as completely useless to us many times but in 2012 he's pitched 6.1 scoreless innings.

 

Its possible that Bard could eventually become a decent or even a good SP. I am not discounting that possibility at all. What I am saying, and what I have said before, is that unless you are ready to put up the white flag for this season, now is not the time for that experiment to continue. We dug ourselves too deep a hole to be engaging in experiments. If the management would like to make a serious run for a possible playoff post then they should sign Oswalt and when he is ready, send Bard back to the bullpen. Next year, after signing a top tier SP to go along with the three #3 SP we already have, Bard can audition for the #5 SP and hopefully we won't have dug ourselves into the kind of hole we managed to dig this year and last year to start the season. This is just not the time for Daniel Bard to keep trying to look like a SP.

[FredLynn]

We're 20-21 after 41 games. Last year the Rays were 30-29 after 59 games. So how did they do last year? Oh yeah right' date=' they made the playoffs. Shouldn't you be limiting this to the 2 seasons that are in the books?[/quote']

 

How did we do last year? How did we do the year before that? How did our pitching do last year? How about the year before that? The BOTTOM LINE is that the Rays have made the playoffs the last two years, and we haven't. I look at results. That is why I think that a FO with a truly huge budget at its disposal has somehow mismanaged this team very very badly. Look at the bottom line.

[FredLynn]

The problem is' date=' his points get lost behind his verbiage. Reading his posts are like watching a blood pressure meter ready to explode. He has a lot of baseball knowledge but it tends to be hidden behind silliness like BarF.[/quote']

 

Fred is emotional. He definitely takes wins and losses more seriously than most people here do (by seriously I mean emotionally). Still, I think its possible to sift through that to see his points. He can explain his baseball experience better than I can, but I believe he was once a scout for a ML team and has extensive experience in managing ball clubs. He still has ML contacts. Most of us just watch the games.

I understand what you are saying........