How about Daniel Bard so far?

[SoxSport]

I think I've nailed. SoxSport is a writer's agent for Mazz and Cafardo. That's the only plausible explanation for why someone would so regularly cite their work as reasonable and well thought out.

 

On the contrary. I'm a big critic of the Globe. But an even bigger critic of the Red Sox front office--those guys get paid more.

 

You should try reading more of my posts. Besides, Cafardo makes more sense than most.

[a700hitter]

On the contrary. I'm a big critic of the Globe. But an even bigger critic of the Red Sox front office--those guys get paid more.

 

You should try reading more of my posts. Besides, Cafardo makes more sense than most.

The FO is responsible for much more. Mazz just needs to get people to read him, and he is apparently very successful at that. Success for the FO has been elusive in the last couple or three years.

[jung]

The biggest issue for Bard as a starter in my view is that he does not appear to be progressing. I don't entirely buy Mazz's "analysis" of the situation. In the first place, Bard's composure was so absent in the 2nd inning when he allowed runners on base and then proceeded to come apart that I would defy anybody to find some method in what he was doing on the mound.

 

Two attempts at the two runners on, pick off/fake out, both resulting in balks...what the hell is that. Clearly, Bard should have been focused on the hitters. Just as clear, someone either V or McClure should have spring boarded off of that bench and settled Bard down as opposed to allowing him to drown in his own piss.

 

V did jump off the bench in the first inning the night before when Doubront was suffering a similar lack of composure and focus. What the hell is different about Bard that kept V's ass planted to the bench?

 

Bard went on to have a decent stretch from the 3rd through the 7th innings but clearly struggled through the 7th. Where were the coaches again in the 7th and why were they so utterly unprepared to assist Bard through that inning and preparing the pen for a possible appearance? Then we have the fateful 8th inning. Why were they so oblivious to Bard's state of condition to pitch in the 8th inning?

 

To be honest as mentioned in the game thread I thought Bard was a shot load after the 7th regardless of a relatively low pitch count at 86. He had struggled in the 7th and just looking at the way he pitched in that inning and at him in the dugout between innings had me convinced he was not coming out at all in the 8th. Shows you what I know cause sure enough there he was.

 

Bard never got within pissing distance of the strike zone to the very first batter of that inning and once again suffered the same lack of composure and focus that he suffered in the 2nd inning now much exacerbated by the ill effects of pressure combined with fatigue. He had already showed with the 1st hitter of the 8th that he could no longer control his arm angle. His velo is of little interest when he can't find the plate. His composure was so shot that as the ump attempted to call time, he was nearly decapitated by a Bard pitch directed not at Shops glove but at the umps head now about 8 feet from home plate!

 

Had the coaches worked with Bard to help him through his rough spots last night, Bard might not have been a shot load by the 8th inning. However he was a shot load. That certainly should have been clear to the coaches. Bard had learned everything there was to learn from that game. He needed to be seated down next to McClure after the 7th inning so that they could go over his stint last night and V should have been taking a studied approach to who should come out for the 8th inning. Had he already opted to pull Bard he might have come up with something other than Fat Albers. We all saw how that worked out.

 

So instead of Bard being on the bench for the 8th inning discussion his outing with McClure, an outing that on balance up to that point would have been marginally positive, he was instead out there in the 8th inning once again drowning in his own piss. Once again instead of making a studied approach to who should come in, V was hastily trying to determine what move to make under the pressure of Bard imploding on the mound. Now that I think about it, how much did Albers ability to get ready quickly play into the decision to use him instead of Miller? Further, maybe Albers was not ready at all!

 

At any rate if the Sox want to continue the Bard starter experiment, the Sox coaches including V must understand that they need to help him though the rough spots and they need to be more conscience of what they are looking at from Bard and less conscience of the stupid God Damned pitch count.

 

I might also suggest that Bard's lapses in composure are so unpredictable and so deep when they do occur that he might be less prepared for the hot seat of coming into games with men on needing to get the Sox out of jams than he is to start at this point.

[Dojji]

Does not appear to be progressing? How much progress did you expect over like 6 starts?

 

He's been progressing fine IMHO. he's getting through lineups multiple times, pitched past the fifth in every start since the first one, gotten deep into games more often than I frankly thought he would, and if it wasn't for two boneheaded decisions by Valentine to leave him out there after he was obviously starting to wear out, and for the bullpen letting the vast majority of his inherited runners score, his ERA would look about a run and a half better.

 

More to the point, his last time out Bard was for the most part getting outs without blowing people away with strikeout stuff. Most people are going to worry about lack of stuff, but the point of the exercise in my mind is that we know the kid can pitch effectively to contact. At least while his command holds up.

 

It's his first go-round as a big league starter -- first in 5 years as a starter period. Did you expect there not to be rocks along the way?

 

Frankly the kid's a LOT closer to looking like a big league starter than I thought he would be. He's still catching up on some skills most starters learn in the minors, so there's going to be consistency issues, but once he plays catch-up on conditioning and command, Bard's not far away from being a good #3 and with his stuff he could go further.

 

On the whole, I'm encouraged, not discouraged, by Bard.

[a700hitter]

Does not appear to be progressing? How much progress did you expect over like 6 starts?

 

I agree that he will not become a reliable starter in 5 weeks. However, on a staff that everyone knew (including the FO -my assumption) was very thin, you don't have the luxury of training a reliever to become a starter. The Bard conversion would not be a problem on a staff with 4 reliable starters who eat innings and a deep reliable bullpen. We have neither of those elements, so there was no luxury to convert him to starting on the big club. He should be learning his craft in the minors.

[SoxSport]

I agree that he will not become a reliable starter in 5 weeks. However' date=' on a staff that everyone knew (including the FO -my assumption) was very thin, you don't have the luxury of training a reliever to become a starter. The Bard conversion would not be a problem on a staff with 4 reliable starters who eat innings and a deep reliable bullpen. We have neither of those elements, so there was no luxury to convert him to starting on the big club. He should be learning his craft in the minors.[/quote']

 

 

I have no problem with trading for a closer and making Bard a starter. But as soon as Bailey went down, the backup should have been Bard immediately to closer. The Globe suggested that's what V wanted to do, but he was overruled by the FO. I'm still reading there is a serious management conflict on the Sox between V and the FO. And V is largely taking a back seat at Lucchino's behest. The root of the problem was the f**ked up manager search by Lucchino/Henry.

[Dojji]

you guys still think it's about this year. I don't. There's not enough to work with for me to conclude at this time that there's a contender here. That being the case it's time to focus on the long term, not the short term.

[jung]

It seems to me that Bard is sort of stuck in the relievers role of coming into a game for a single inning at most and just getting the required number of outs to end that inning. He does not seem to me to be making progress towards understanding what a pitcher has to do to get through a series of innings starting with the 1st inning and most importantly controlling the other team's offensive efforts.

 

While the starters and the relievers role are both pitching duties they are not at all the same things. The reason I don't think Bard is making any progress is not because he is failing to learn how to drive the car...he does not appear able to find the car keys! You would knock me over with a feather if even a young up and coming pitcher that had been starting for the bulk of his career did not think about his next start in terms of controlling the other team's offense while Bard seems to be stuck in the relievers role thinking about how to get out of an inning.

 

For whatever reasons this coaching staff does not appear to see that they have a role in helping him get back the starter's perspective on a pitching appearance or maybe even establish it for the first time. It is certainly possible that the coaches are not willing to make this concession to the fact that Bard is attempting to do this at the major league level. It is in fact unusual for a ML coaching staff to be confronted with a starting pitcher that needs to learn as much about starting as Bard seems to need to learn.

 

It seems to me that the only aspect of the starters role where Bard is trying to progress is in developing secondary pitches such that he has command of them. There does not appear to me to be an effort to think about how he will use pitches to control a team's offensive efforts over the course of a game. I just don't think he can do it this way and finally get to the finish line. He can't wait till he has command of three pitches and then start to think about how he will control an opponent's offensive efforts. He will be into the backside of his career before having a chance to be a truly effective starter at that rate.

 

Maybe this is another aspect of the mess that Beckett is as the supposed seasoned vet of the rotation. How much help do you think Beckett is in this regard? The younger guys probably don't know if they should avoid Beckett like the plague or go to him for help. Would you want to be associated with Beckett or would you head for the hills?

 

The point is that if Bard makes no progress toward truly making a transition to a starting pitcher they are almost cheating him at this point. They are just taking advantage of the innings Bard can give them from the 5 hole. I think Bard deserves better than that because while Bard is likely giving the Sox an honest effort at making this transition I think the organization has a responsibility to do more than just announce this transition and then pencil Bard's name into a spot in the rotation. That is where I see a lapse at this point.

[FredLynn]

you guys still think it's about this year. I don't. There's not enough to work with for me to conclude at this time that there's a contender here. That being the case it's time to focus on the long term' date=' not the short term.[/quote']

 

I think thats an excellent plan: long term planning. Strategy for the future, not the present. Delayed gratification. If thats the case I guess I can tolerate Bard as a SP for a year. If he is a failure come the end of the season in September, then he loses his job.

Much more needs to be done if that is the strategy. Getting rid of most of our management and holding a fire sale are also necessary. Allowing Bard to start for a whole year but failing to address the other issues is not doing the job justice. You either follow through with the strategy of long term planning or you don't-and hope that we will contend this year, in which case Bard as SP is not smart.

[a700hitter]

you guys still think it's about this year. I don't. There's not enough to work with for me to conclude at this time that there's a contender here. That being the case it's time to focus on the long term' date=' not the short term.[/quote']If it is not about this year, then they are going about things completely backward. If it is about the future, you don't start the season with a payroll over around $170 million. They should have blown up this bloated bag of garbage and sold of the contents at a discount. They didn't because they thought they could be competitive this season. They seriously miscalculated, and now they are stuck. They stink and they are not rebuilding for the future.

[Bellhorn04]

If it is not about this year' date=' then they are going about things completely backward. If it is about the future, you don't start the season with a payroll over around $170 million. They should have blown up this bloated bag of garbage and sold of the contents at a discount. They didn't because they thought they could be competitive this season. They seriously miscalculated, and now they are stuck. They stink and they are not rebuilding for the future.[/quote']

 

In theory at least, this could still be a partial rebuilding year. *If* they trade Youkilis, which seems somewhat likely, *if* they trade Beckett, which who-the-f*** knows...and get back younger cheaper talent...and we do have some minor league prospects doing well.

[Laser Show]

In theory at least' date=' this could still be a partial rebuilding year. *If* they trade Youkilis, which seems somewhat likely, *if* they trade Beckett, which who-the-f*** knows...and get back younger cheaper talent...and we do have some minor league prospects doing well.[/quote']

 

You don't trade your starters a month and a half into the season and call it a rebuilding year, you do it in the offseason. This season is a failure. They thought they could put a competitive product on the field and were flat out wrong. Now they need to admit to it and actually do something about it.

[Dojji]

Beckett has 10-5 rights. Getting rid of Beckett isn't as easy as saying "let's trade Beckett."

[Laser Show]

Beckett has 10-5 rights. Getting rid of Beckett isn't as easy as saying "let's trade Beckett."

 

Can we kill him?

[Dojji]

You have a problem.

 

You're probably joking. I hope you're joking. But even if you are, you have a problem.

[a700hitter]

Can we kill him?

Kill Doji instead.

[FredLynn]

Beckett has 10-5 rights. Getting rid of Beckett isn't as easy as saying "let's trade Beckett."

 

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to trade the loser. I think the threat of a newpaper headline that reads "Beckett vetos trade to Royals" would strike at his pride, which he is full of.

[Bellhorn04]

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to trade the loser. I think the threat of a newpaper headline that reads "Beckett vetos trade to Royals" would strike at his pride' date=' which he is full of.[/quote']

 

Even better, try to trade him to Houston, in his home state and 'better for his family'. See if he vetoes that one.

[Dojji]

That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to trade the loser. I think the threat of a newpaper headline that reads "Beckett vetos trade to Royals" would strike at his pride' date=' which he is full of.[/quote']

 

Then you have to find a team that wants him.

[JohnGreen2004]

I think he would have suitors. Aside from two starts, he's been decent this year. The Red Sox definitely won't get his value back and they'll pay a good chunk of salary but if he's willing, they should try. His time here has come.

[Spitball]

Even better' date=' try to trade him to Houston, in his home state and 'better for his family'. See if he vetoes that one.[/quote']

 

Trade him for Wandy Rodriguez and/or Brett Myers.

[mvp 78]

f*** Brett Myers.

[v2freak]

Trade him for Wandy Rodriguez and/or Brett Myers.

 

Astros wouldn't do that. Wandy Rodriguez is good, Josh Beckett is so-so right now. I don't see the Astros looking for pitching help at the moment anyway.

[Spitball]

Astros wouldn't do that. Wandy Rodriguez is good' date=' Josh Beckett is so-so right now. I don't see the Astros looking for pitching help at the moment anyway.[/quote']

 

I was just joining in the Beckett to Houston fantasy. I realize the Astros are not about to add an expensive player, especially one who has been crap and has issues.

 

I do believe Rodriguez will be moved at the deadline, but the Astros will want young players to rebuild.

 

Back to Bard. I'm growing concerned about his decreasing ability to miss bats. He is averaging only 6 Ks per 9 innings this year as a starter. He has struckout only 2 batters in the last 12 plus innings. This is not a good trend. He is a two pitch starter, and he isn't getting anyone to miss his slder.

 

Also, he pitched 73 innings last year. He is already at 31.2 innings. Considering the Verducci Effect, how many innings will he pitch this year?

 

There are a lot of things going wrong this year. A lot of the problems seem to be because of poor judgement calls. When Papelbon left, Bard should have been the logical choice to replace him. Now, he is a mediocre starter struggling to get by on basically one effective pitch. That might work in the bullpen but not in the rotation.

[redsoxfan3]

I was just joining in the Beckett to Houston fantasy. I realize the Astros are not about to add an expensive player, especially one who has been crap and has issues.

 

I do believe Rodriguez will be moved at the deadline, but the Astros will want young players to rebuild.

 

Back to Bard. I'm growing concerned about his decreasing ability to miss bats. He is averaging only 6 Ks per 9 innings this year as a starter. He has struckout only 2 batters in the last 12 plus innings. This is not a good trend. He is a two pitch starter, and he isn't getting anyone to miss his slder.

 

Also, he pitched 73 innings last year. He is already at 31.2 innings. Considering the Verducci Effect, how many innings will he pitch this year?

 

There are a lot of things going wrong this year. A lot of the problems seem to be because of poor judgement calls. When Papelbon left, Bard should have been the logical choice to replace him. Now, he is a mediocre starter struggling to get by on basically one effective pitch. That might work in the bullpen but not in the rotation.

 

Bard in the rotation is better in the long run. Bard would be the best short-term option as a closer, but he was an effecitve SP in college and can be in the majors. I think he can be a future #3 starter. There will be ups and downs with him in the rotation, especially until he gets more experience. He will be fine. If we can somehow get Buchholz back on track, then I think we can have an elite rotation with Lester, Buchholz, Bard, and Doubront with either Barnes or Ranaudo hopefully becoming our 5th starter in the next few years. I find it hard to believe that Beckett will be in Boston after his contract is up.

[Dojji]

There are a lot of things going wrong this year. A lot of the problems seem to be because of poor judgement calls. When Papelbon left, Bard should have been the logical choice to replace him. Now, he is a mediocre starter struggling to get by on basically one effective pitch. That might work in the bullpen but not in the rotation.

 

That would have filled one of the 4 relief roles screaming for an effective stopgap, and left us in need of a starter -- something just as difficult and even more expensive to properly replace.

[Spitball]

That would have filled one of the 4 relief roles screaming for an effective stopgap' date=' and left us in need of a starter -- something just as difficult and even more expensive to properly replace.[/quote']

 

If Bard keeps up his recent about one strikeout per nine innings, it will still leave the Sox in need of a starter. I would never have believed Bard would ever have had a 2 strikeout in 12.1 inning stretch, but when you only have one effective pitch, that will happen to a starter.

 

I would have tried Aceves as a starter and Bard as the closer. I'd have kept Reddick over a closer with a history of injuries.

[Dojji]

So that's what you're measuring based on? Strikeouts?

 

Have you even watched the games? Bard has been a lot more effective than his ERA lets on. He's been left out to dry three times already by V and it's burned him, inflating his numbers.

[redsoxfan3]

Posted in the wrong thread.

[Spitball]

So that's what you're measuring based on? Strikeouts?

 

Are you kidding?

 

 

Pitchers - Luck indicators

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) - The percentage of balls in play that fall for hits.

Importance: Pitchers have very little control over BABIP, making them prone to even more random fluctuations than hitters. These fluctuations can have a significant affect on the number of hits the pitcher gives up, impacting WHIP and ERA. Most pitcher regress to league average (around .300), but some elite pitchers can maintain BABIPs as low as .280.

 

Have you even watched the games? Bard has been a lot more effective than his ERA lets on. He's been left out to dry three times already by V and it's burned him, inflating his numbers.

 

I have seen that Bard's slider has become very hittable which leaves his fastball vulnerable. His change up is not major league ready at this point. If he is to be successful as a starter, he will need more than one pitch. Even as a reliever, he will need that slider to get batters to swing and miss.