Sox and Ortiz Settle at Mid-Point

[User Name]

Sabermetric projections are evidence? Lawl.

 

They aren't?

 

They're better predictors of future performance than opinion.

 

Also, if you want to find reasons from last year that foretell future improvement, there are many:

 

Improved defense, improved percentage of runners thrown out, increase in power, BB% could be considered an outlier and is likely to improve, less exposure against lefties (because of Shoppach), age.

[Emmz]

Who will hit after Ortiz? Someone needs to step up. I am hoping it will be Salty' date=' because the rest of the bottom of the order will not scare any pitchers.[/quote']

 

Ross could do a nice job. He's got decent career numbers in Florida and SF (IIRC).

[a700hitter]

A RH bat like Ross' date=' Aviles, or Shoppach.[/quote']If you are on the mound and Ortiz is stepping to the plate with one of those guys on deck, who do you pitch to?

 

Why do you list Shoppach instead of Salty? He's just going to be the backup. Salty will get the majority of PT. Shoppach will pop a few balls out of the park and strike out the rest of the time. His offense is not good at all. Strangely, Shoppach hits CC Sabathia very well.

[a700hitter]

Ross could do a nice job. He's got decent career numbers in Florida and SF (IIRC).

Who would you pitch to?

[Emmz]

They aren't?

 

They're better predictors of future performance than opinion.

 

Also, if you want to find reasons from last year that foretell future improvement, there are many:

 

Improved defense, improved percentage of runners thrown out, increase in power, BB% could be considered an outlier and is likely to improve, less exposure against lefties (because of Shoppach), age.

 

I didn't make a prediction though \o/

[Emmz]

Who would you pitch to?

 

I'd rather pitch to anyone than Ortiz on the entire team, and most of the league. What's your point? Ross is still a decent hitter.

[User Name]

I didn't make a prediction though \o/

 

I meant opinions in general. Like mine, for instance.

[a700hitter]

I'd rather pitch to anyone than Ortiz on the entire team' date=' and most of the league. What's your point? Ross is still a decent hitter.[/quote']Oh come on. If Youk, AGon, and Ellsbury or Pedroia were behind Ortiz,a pitcher would not be thrilled to give up an additional base runner. The rest of the lineup is a steep falloff. Ted Williams used to say that pitchers were the dumbest animals on earth, but even the slowest learners on the mound will realize that pitching to Ortiz is just stupid. My point is that I expect Ortiz production to be down this season, and that it will be largely attributable to him not getting pitches to hit. Someone in the bottom of that order will need to step up to protect the big guy. It's a pretty weak group.

[User Name]

Didn't Ortiz spend most of last year with auto-out Carl Crawford or assorted non-threats behind him?

[Emmz]

Oh come on. If Youk' date=' AGon, and Ellsbury or Pedroia were behind Ortiz,a pitcher would not be thrilled to give up an additional base runner. The rest of the lineup is a steep falloff. Ted Williams used to say that pitchers were the dumbest animals on earth, but even the slowest learners on the mound will realize that pitching to Ortiz is just stupid. My point is that I expect Ortiz production to be down this season, and that it will be largely attributable to him not getting pitches to hit. Someone in the bottom of that order will need to step up to protect the big guy. It's a pretty weak group.[/quote']

 

Thats not what you said, but yeah of course. But Ross has been productive in the past.

[mvp 78]

If you are on the mound and Ortiz is stepping to the plate with one of those guys on deck, who do you pitch to?

 

Why do you list Shoppach instead of Salty? He's just going to be the backup. Salty will get the majority of PT. Shoppach will pop a few balls out of the park and strike out the rest of the time. His offense is not good at all. Strangely, Shoppach hits CC Sabathia very well.

 

Because he's RH. Personally, I'd expect whoever is catching to hit 8 or 9 and not be on deck when Ortiz is up. My point is that Salty won't likely bat right after Ortiz.

[a700hitter]

Because he's RH. Personally' date=' I'd expect whoever is catching to hit 8 or 9 and not be on deck when Ortiz is up. My point is that Salty won't likely bat right after Ortiz.[/quote']Who would you bat in the 6th hole behind Ortiz? Where does Crawford bat when he comes back?

[a700hitter]

Thats not what you said' date=' but yeah of course. But Ross has been productive in the past.[/quote']Last year .730 OPS batting after Ortiz (.950+ OPS). Ross will see a lot of pitches with a man on first base. It might be better to bat a lefty after Ortiz, because he will be on first base a lot from walks. A lefty can use the hole between 1st and 2nd.

[User Name]

Projected 2012 lineup:

 

1) CF Ellsbury

2) 2B Pedroia

3) 1B Gonzales

4) 3B Youkilis

5) DH Ortiz

6) LF Ross

7) RF Sweeney

8) C Saltalamacchia

9) SS Aviles

[mvp 78]

Who would you bat in the 6th hole behind Ortiz? Where does Crawford bat when he comes back?

 

Not Salty. CC should be 2nd or 7th.

[Bellhorn04]

Anybody that thinks we should have said adios to Ortiz and gone with Lavarnway at DH needs to take a look at what that lineup would look like.

[kapsis21]

Projected 2012 lineup:

 

1) CF Ellsbury

2) 2B Pedroia

3) 1B Gonzales

4) 3B Youkilis

5) DH Ortiz

6) LF Ross

7) RF Sweeney

8) C Saltalamacchia

9) SS Aviles

if Papi hits behind AGON he might see more pitches to hit too. I feel Youk somehow doesnt bring any threat even though he definitely gets on base.

1) CF Ellsbury

2) 2B Pedroia

3) 1B Gonzales

4) DH Ortiz

5) 3B Youk

6) LF Ross

7) C Saltalamacchia

8) RF CC/Sweeney

9) SS Aviles

[User Name]

Projected 2012 lineup:

 

1) CF Ellsbury

2) 2B Pedroia

3) 1B Gonzales

4) 3B Youkilis

5) DH Ortiz

6) LF Ross

7) RF Sweeney

8) C Saltalamacchia

9) SS Aviles

 

Per the baseball musings lineup analysis tool, using Bill James projection numbers (which are fairly conservative) and considering that it does not account for factors like SB's, the above lineup would score 5.579 R/G or 902 runs on the season.

 

You can discount around a 40-55 runs on average because of missed time by regulars, bringing the total to a realistic 855 runs.

[User Name]

if Papi hits behind AGON he might see more pitches to hit too. I feel Youk somehow doesnt bring any threat even though he definitely gets on base.

1) CF Ellsbury

2) 2B Pedroia

3) 1B Gonzales

4) DH Ortiz

5) 3B Youk

6) LF Ross

7) C Saltalamacchia

8) RF CC/Sweeney

9) SS Aviles

 

Why would you feel Youkilis doesn't bring any threat? He's slugged around the same level as Ortiz the last couple of years. Even while battling nagging injuries last year, he sluggled over .450.

[MANNYHOF24]

if Papi hits behind AGON he might see more pitches to hit too. I feel Youk somehow doesnt bring any threat even though he definitely gets on base.

1) CF Ellsbury

2) 2B Pedroia

3) 1B Gonzales

4) DH Ortiz

5) 3B Youk

6) LF Ross

7) C Saltalamacchia

8) RF CC/Sweeney

9) SS Aviles

 

 

Are you f***ing kidding me?

[Dojji]

It's about reputation, not numbers, and the fact is that that impression does matter from a "protection" standpoint.

 

Pitcher has to FEAR the batter he'll face next. if pitchers aren't scared of Youk, it doesn't matter if it actually turns out he murders them.

 

Definitely see an argument where a pitcher would be much more terrified of David Ortiz.

[kapsis21]

Are you f***ing kidding me?

 

i guess i worded it wrongly but Dojji cleared my point. cool it.

Papi is more fearful compared to Youk even though stats are very similar. maybe AGON might get that extra pitch or two every game that he can drive..

[kapsis21]

Why would you feel Youkilis doesn't bring any threat? He's slugged around the same level as Ortiz the last couple of years. Even while battling nagging injuries last year' date=' he sluggled over .450.[/quote']

 

the fear factor for Ortiz would be slightly high which might allow AGON to see an extra pitch or two he could drive..

[User Name]

The "fear" factor is not something you can quantify, for one.

 

And if healthy, Youkilis is just as feared a hitter as Ortiz.

 

Gonzales did extremely well last year with Youkilis hitting behind him by the way. I don't see the relevance to this point.

[kapsis21]

is there a stat that shows Youkilis hitting really well at home compared to away.. i know his HRs are a lot more pulling at green monster. maybe Ortiz needs to be a #4 away and Youk #4 at home..maybe i am just nitpicking.. oh well

[User Name]

.914/.852 OPS Home/Away. Pretty normal split.

 

He actually has more HR's on the road (66) than at home (63).

[kapsis21]

.914/.852 OPS Home/Away. Pretty normal split.

 

He actually has more HR's on the road (66) than at home (63).

 

thanks. i guess i rest my case then.

[Dojji]

The "fear" factor is not something you can quantify, for one.

 

And if healthy, Youkilis is just as feared a hitter as Ortiz.

 

Gonzales did extremely well last year with Youkilis hitting behind him by the way. I don't see the relevance to this point.

 

If healthy, Youks is as effective as Ortiz statistically.

 

Big Papi has being Big Papi in his favor. Youkilis is just a bald shouty white man, Big Papi is the guy who once hit 50 HR's.

[User Name]

If healthy, Youks is as effective as Ortiz statistically.

 

Big Papi has being Big Papi in his favor. Youkilis is just a bald shouty white man, Big Papi is the guy who once hit 50 HR's.

 

Yet as evidenced by his gaudy BB numbers with men on base, pitchers are just as reluctant to pitch to Youk as to Ortiz in those situations. I know he has a patient approach, but it's clear that pitchers don't want to deal with Youkilis in pressure situations.

 

Besides, Ortiz' days of 50 HR's are long gone. Pitchers don't live in the past, and neither should we. Ortiz is what he is now.

[seabeachfred]

League average is s*****' date=' and slightly above average is still s*****. I don't discredit the hot streak, it happened, don't know where you pulled that out of, or how much it hurt to do so. Doesn't matter what Bill James projects, I'm pretty sure it's not a fool proof formula. His career has yet to inspire hope. Spin it whatever way you like, but Salty is mediocre overall. His bat doesn't make up for how much of a butcher he is.[/quote']

 

You'd rather have Varitek behind the plate instead??? I didn't think so. Satalamacchia caught as a regular for the first time last season and did show some good talent. He needs to work on his throwing but at least he does have a good arm. Look Emmz, I'm not saying he is in the class of an elite catcher but he does have power and he can throw and hit decently and their is good hope for getting better. From 2008 on Varitek was as useless with a bat after June as you know what on a bull. If Jarrod doesn't pan out I expect Ryan Lavarnway to supplant him in 2013, or if he does pan out see Ryan take over DH as the team finally says good bye to Big Diva.