2011 - 2012 Offseason Thread

[example1]

btw' date=' I still think we get a deal done with the White Sox. I just dont think they understand the market. The DBacks just dealt Cahill and 6 yrs of team control to the DBacks and got one marquee prospect and a bunch of potential prospects in the deal. And that's for a guy who is younger than Danks, coming off a better season, and coming with more years of control. Once the White Sox remember that Danks has 1 yr left, that they are rebuilding, and that their best dance partner is the Yankees, then they will likely cave. I think we could theoretically get Danks without giving up Banuelos, Betances, or Montero. But we shall see. I think we could frame a deal around Austin Romine, give them the opportunity to move Flowers out to 1b and be set at catcher for awhile.[/quote']

 

I suspect that if you keep wishing really hard and find a few lucky pennies, the White Sox will fall into line and give the Yankees a player they need badly without having to give up their best prospects.

[jacksonianmarch]

Projecting much? The Yankees have a 5 man rotation right now. They also have the high minors flush with SP talent. They dont "have" to make a move. They can wait for the price to come down, and it will

[Palodios]

Projecting much? The Yankees have a 5 man rotation right now. They also have the high minors flush with SP talent. They dont "have" to make a move. They can wait for the price to come down' date=' and it will[/quote']

 

The problem with the Yankees is that they just don't have any #2 pitchers. They have a few #3 guys, but I just don't think their pitching rotation matches up well with anyone in a five game series. If CC ever got hurt, even their bullpen wouldn't be able to get them to the playoffs. I'm not sure why there isn't more urgency by this team to get a guy who can back up CC.

[iortiz]

IMO Noesi and specially Nova will be your future stars. Hopefully for you, they don't overprotect them as they did with Joba.

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem with the Yankees is that they just don't have any #2 pitchers. They have a few #3 guys' date=' but I just don't think their pitching rotation matches up well with anyone in a five game series. If CC ever got hurt, even their bullpen wouldn't be able to get them to the playoffs. I'm not sure why there isn't more urgency by this team to get a guy who can back up CC.[/quote']

 

Nova was a hell of a number two after the ASB. But you are right, they dont have a lock, stock, and barrel number 2. Then again, we have a good rotation 1-5 and a dominant pen. We were 1 run short of making it to the ALCS, and our ERA was 3.20 in the ALDS. And we did face a good rotation, so it isnt like we got blown away. As is, our team is a championship contender. If we get a solid #2 then we're even better

[Meh]

Honestly if Nova wasn't home grown Yankee fans wouldn't be so hard for him. I think he's good and all but he shouldn't be our #2 cause he's not that type of pitcher. He's a #3 at best and should be our #4(on a team like the Yankees). I sometimes wonder what people are thinking when they go on and on about how Nova is the new Pettitte. I'd trade Nova tomorrow if the price was right.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldnt. I love Nova for what he is, but also for what he could be. He has the arsenal of an ace with the production of a sinkerballer as of right now. He's currently our old CMW and in the future he could be something more. I think he ends up as a solid #2 for us next season, but I have a feeling someone will be slotting ahead of him, either currently in house or from the outside

[Meh]

Well' date=' if he cannot beat out Esteban German, then I dont think I'd want him in a Yankee uniform, lol. Regardless, this guy will sign. I just have a feeling either he or Nunez will then be dealt for some pitching. Cashman is playing this really cool right now, but we know he's working as hard as he can to sure up the rotation. Our rotation has a lot of potential, but the gap between potential and current is pretty big and as of right now, we have no contingencies. With Burnett, Nova, Garcia and Hughes behind CC, we'll need a few contingencies[/quote']

 

His old team announced a new captain. German got a million too, doubt they'd put that on the bench. All signs are pointing towards him signing.

 

Also if Nova is our #2 next season I will cry.

[Meh]

ESPN says.....

 

Trade 2. New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners

Yankees acquire: RHP Felix Hernandez

Mariners acquire: RHP Ivan Nova, C Jesus Montero, RHP Dellin Betances

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=2863&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fblog%2fthe-gms-office%2fpost%3fid%3d2863

 

I'd do that, but the M's wouldn't. Still if that happened I'd be the happiest person ever.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont like it, but that's the package it would take. I wouldnt give any more players than that. Nova is a second yr pitcher coming off a 16 win campaign and was dynamite in the playoffs before getting hurt. Montero is one of the best hitting prospects in the game and Betances is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. That kind of haul would be unprecedented

[Meh]

I dont like it' date=' but that's the package it would take. I wouldnt give any more players than that. Nova is a second yr pitcher coming off a 16 win campaign and was dynamite in the playoffs before getting hurt. Montero is one of the best hitting prospects in the game and Betances is one of the top pitching prospects in the game. That kind of haul would be unprecedented[/quote']

 

Come on man, you HAVE to do that trade. Rotation of CC, Felix, AJ, Garcia, Hughes and Noesi stepping in if we can somehow trade AJ or if Garcia or Hughes gets hurt or if they aren't good.

[jacksonianmarch]

Montero showed his hand a bit already offensively. This kid is going to be a hitter that at least is an all star level and his ceiling is MVP caliber. I dont throw him around willy nilly. Nova is a proven big league starter who won 16 games and Betances is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. It's not an easy pill to swallow for anyone, because they are all big league ready and if they reach close to their potential, you give the M's two front end starters and a franchise offensive player. I'd rather have one top notch prospect and a bunch of high ceiling less experienced players go, but it is Felix.

[a700hitter]

Come on man' date=' you HAVE to do that trade. Rotation of CC, Felix, AJ, Garcia, Hughes and Noesi stepping in if we can somehow trade AJ or if Garcia or Hughes gets hurt or if they aren't good.[/quote']Especially since it looks like Nova may be heading down the road of elbow trouble after his forearm tightness at the end of the season. Sell high, before he needs TJ.

[VA Sox Fan]

Especially since it looks like Nova may be heading down the road of elbow trouble after his forearm tightness at the end of the season. Sell high' date=' before he needs TJ.[/quote']

 

:lol: at the addition to your signature, you should add the date of your copyright, 2008!!!

[a700hitter]

:lol: at the addition to your signature' date=' you should add the date of your copyright, 2008!!! [/quote']I am also going to have to copyright the "7-Run Rule" method of managing starting pitchers before some smart ass Googles it and tries to tell me that I stole the idea from some obscure writer from an obscure newspaper in Providence. :lol:

 

I didn't date the copyright as 2008, because 2008 was when I introduced the term on TalkSox. I'd been using the term for a long time before that, long before those guys in the links in Spitball's post. I hate it when people steal my material without giving any credit.

 

BTW, these Boston sportswriters steal ideas like crazy. I'm not the only one to notice it, and I'm not saying that they are always my ideas. Several times I have seen topics discussed at length here and one of those scavengers writes an article about it a day or two later.

[VA Sox Fan]

I am also going to have to copyright the "7-Run Rule" method of managing starting pitchers before some smart ass Googles it and tries to tell me that I stole the idea from some obscure writer from an obscure newspaper in Providence. :lol:

 

I didn't date the copyright as 2008, because 2008 was when I introduced the term on TalkSox. I'd been using the term for a long time before that, long before those guys in the links in Spitball's post. I hate it when people steal my material without giving any credit.

 

BTW, these Boston sportswriters steal ideas like crazy. I'm not the only one to notice it, and I'm not saying that they are always my ideas. Several times I have seen topics discussed at length here and one of those scavengers writes an article about it a day or two later.

 

I coined "Rock and Roll"....oh...that's right. I wasn't born yet

 

I used to post with folks on the former Boston Herald forum that felt that the writers from the Globe and the Herald got their ideas from them. They were "know it alls" too. Who knows? Sounds kinda like a stretch to me when these writers have all kinds of access to the Red Sox organization. But ya know, in this day and age, nothing surprises me when it comes to the media in general.

 

I am so ready for Spring Training.

[jacksonianmarch]

So it looks like Darvish isnt coming to NY, so for now, the Yankees have their top 5 and are ready to roll with their already deep top of the farm system SP depth. In truth, I think we can definitely repeat as AL East champs with the rotation as is. We know the following...

 

1. CC Sabathia is an ace. He'll give us 200+IP at a low 3's ERA and be our leader on the bump

2. AJ Burnett has been healthy and finished the year strong. He's enigmatic, but has given us innings

3. Ivan Nova was the balls at the end of 2011. He was our #2 in the playoffs and performed well

4. Freddy Garcia has figured out how to pitch to his diminished velocity

5. Phil Hughes finally looked healthy by season's end.

 

Now come the if's, and we really need just one if/need to be dominant again in 2012. We need one of the above to step up as a solid #2. I think we can expect the following....

 

1. CC will be dominant with a few blips on the radar

2. AJ Burnett will once again show maddening inconsistency, but I do expect him to build off his solid finish to the yr and see his ERA drop into the 4's (most likely high 4's)

3. One of our starters will go down for a prolonged period of time or multiple starters will go down for short stretches

 

Knowing the above, I am predicting the following...

 

1. Similar year from CC. 20 or so wins, low 3's ERA, 220+IP

2. AJ Burnett's ERA in the 4.7 range, his IP peaks back over the 200IP mark

3. Ivan Nova will continue his breakout and pitch to a high 3's ERA. The IP will be determined by his health, but all reports have him throwing and completely healthy right now

4. Freddy Garcia scares the ever living s*** out of me and while he was solid last yr, I did not agree with this move. Anybody who can get hit like he did vs Detroit while making the exact pitch he was looking to make gives me pause

5. Phil Hughes will rebound and have a solid yet unspectacular season. I am, though, concerned about his durability in the rotation

 

This leads me to believe that our depth is going to get used. In the pen, we have these spots locked...

 

1. Rivera

2. Robertson

3. Soriano

4. Logan

5. Wade

 

On a team that carries 11-12 pitchers at a time, that leaves us with at least 1-2 spots open for the kids. Last yr, Noesi was carried in that slot intermittently and Colon and Ayala were also on the roster. We also have Joba coming back by the ASB. This yr, I think Noesi starts the yr as a starter in AAA and is our first call. He's been sitting mid to high 90s out of the rotation in the winter league this yr, as opposed to his topping out at 95-96 and sitting 91-92. If he continues that breakout, he'll be a SP prospect rather than a swing prospect which is what I had him pegged as. And with his experience, he'd be our 6th starter.

 

Our most likely candidate for the swing spot, IMO, is DJ Mitchell. Tops out at 92 mph, but throws a wicked sinker/slider combo and could be a guy a la Scot Shields who can just mow down opponents in his way. He is the spitting image of Ramiro Mendoza from a decade ago with the ability to locate a deadly sinker and also have a starters arsenal coming out of the pen.

 

After Noesi, we have no shortage of SP depth, assuming we have Mitchell as the swing man and eliminate him from the argument. Next calls after Noesi would be Adam Warren and David Phelps. Then, assuming the timing is right and they both start out well in SWB, the duo of top prospects in Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos. We have the depth, and assuming we're going in as is, we'll be using it. I just hope that if we are keeping the rotation as is that we dont make a stupid move and trade off that depth. Because if we do, we could be in a similar spot as the sox should/when one of our starters go down

 

That doesnt mean I wouldnt welcome a deal for a #2 starter. I would just prefer that if we werent to alter the rotation at all that we done use that depth to deal for an offensive player and leave our depth to s***. The depth and the fact that we have a surefire #1 and a rotation that did it last yr is enough for me. But we need to ensure that we have kids ready and able to do the job. We dont want to have to rely on one kid like the sox did with Weiland should they come up and s*** the bed. We have a ton of talent, and all of these kids look to have a big league arsenal and big league polish. It's just about developing them

[User Name]

Murphy's Law apparently doesn't apply to the Yankees. It's all sunshine and unicorns and rainbows.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Murphy's Law apparently doesn't apply to the Yankees. It's all sunshine and unicorns and rainbows.

 

Exactly. I don't even want to think about what he would say if the Sox had the Yankees pitching. It would probably be something like:

 

"CC is good, but he had that knee problem and he's thrown over 230 IP in each of the last 5 seasons. He's largely overweight and it's only a matter of time until he breaks down. Nova is ok but he was helped out by a .283 BABIP, as his xFIP was 4.16, and he showed that he can't throw under pressure, as he got hit hard and lost control in the post season. Burnett will continue to regress, he can't cut it for a big market team. Hughes lost all velocity on his fastball and his control went too. From my medical background, it's likely that he'll never return to baseball and, in fact, will probably have to have his entire right arm amputated. Garcia was lucky he didn't get his tits lit on fire everytime he went out there, and he should regress to a high 4's, low 5's ERA.

 

As for the bullpen, Soriano is just an injury waiting to happen and Rivera is another year older. He will start to lose it this year because of deteriorating stamina. Robertson will probably post an ERA in the low 4's. He may have been the luckiest pitcher in the MLB last season, with a 4.73 BB/9 and an 89.8% strand rate. That's pretty ridiculous.

 

Basically, if a big name SP isn't acquired to pitch behind CC, it's going to result in a sub-.500 season."

 

But for the Yankees? "We'll win the AL East as is. No need for another pitcher. Hughes will be a lightening rod, CC will throw 240 IP and is at no risk for injury, Burnett will bounce back and post a 3.7 ERA, and Garcia has completely figured everything out. Robertson will post probably a 95% strand rate and his ERA will drop to 0.17. Soriano got stronger because of his injury. Rivera got a stem cell injection and now throws 104. We win."

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys are pretty shallow and pedantic. Shallow and pedantic....

 

Dispute what I said, go for it.

[Meh]

Murphy's Law apparently doesn't apply to the Yankees. It's all sunshine and unicorns and rainbows.

 

He basically says Gracia won't be as good. Hughes will rebound but still not be that good, which is true cause he can't get any worse. AJ is up and down but will give innings, which is true and CC will be an ace. Give me a breakdown of your rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Oh, and it is just complete idiocy to say he was bad in the playoffs. He resumed game 1 and threw 6+IP of 2 run ball, and those 2 runs came in garbage time. And in game 5, he was hurt. So yeah, he was pretty good

[User Name]

You guys are pretty shallow and pedantic. Shallow and pedantic....

 

Dispute what I said, go for it.

 

No need for you and Meh (who's extremely unrealistic in almost everything, thinks Kojji Uehara is a lefty, and thinks real life trades are like fantasy baseball trades, but i digress) to get your maxy pads all wet.

 

Bad things that could happen:

 

1) Nova could get figured out by the league, like a lot of other pitchers.

 

2) AJ could be bad AJ all year long and be so innefective and be unable to even provide valuable innings.

 

3) Garcia's stuff could regress further and get hammered.

 

4) Noesi, who's Winter League stats and scouting you seem to have not read, could continue his control problems.

 

5) Warren, Phelps and Noesi (mentioned above) are not ready, and an injury to either Nova or CC leaves the Yankees scrambling.

 

None or all of this could happen, but just as you're a "realist" with your Sox analysis, be a "realist" with your Yankee analysis.

 

That being said, the Yankees are certainly in a better position than the Sox in regards to their pitching at the moment.

[Meh]

who's extremely unrealistic in almost everything' date=' thinks Kojji Uehara is a lefty[/quote']

 

Well if you think you're getting a top prospect package for Beckett then you're even more off than me. Meh I made a mistake with Koji, probably like you made a mistake spelling his name Kojji.

[User Name]

Well if you think you're getting a top prospect package for Beckett then you're even more off than me. Meh I made a mistake with Koji' date=' probably like you made a mistake spelling his name Kojji. [/quote']

 

A typo, which isn't of the logical or homer variety. Think about it for a second.

 

Anyways, you didn't debate my actual points. Can i take that as agreement?

[jacksonianmarch]

No need for you and Meh (who's extremely unrealistic in almost everything, thinks Kojji Uehara is a lefty, and thinks real life trades are like fantasy baseball trades, but i digress) to get your maxy pads all wet.

 

Bad things that could happen:

 

1) Nova could get figured out by the league, like a lot of other pitchers.

 

2) AJ could be bad AJ all year long and be so innefective and be unable to even provide valuable innings.

 

3) Garcia's stuff could regress further and get hammered.

 

4) Noesi, who's Winter League stats and scouting you seem to have not read, could continue his control problems.

 

5) Warren, Phelps and Noesi (mentioned above) are not ready, and an injury to either Nova or CC leaves the Yankees scrambling.

 

None or all of this could happen, but just as you're a "realist" with your Sox analysis, be a "realist" with your Yankee analysis.

 

That being said, the Yankees are certainly in a better position than the Sox in regards to their pitching at the moment.

 

Warren, Phelps, and Noesi, three guys you probably have never heard of, arent ready because you deem them to be. I see. Insightful, really. Now, if you had any substance there, maybe I'd believe you. But Noesi already spent his rookie season in the bigs facing big leaguers out of the pen. Phelps and Warren made 45 starts between them in AAA. Not like they were late season call-ups. If it werent for an injury to Phelps midseason, he'd have been the spot starter for Colon when he went down with a hammy. Not sure how you quantify "not ready" but you're grasping it straws here. Now, they may come up and get completely bombed. Never disputed that. But nobody can really say they arent ready for the chance or incapable of handling the opportunity.

 

Nova could be figured out, yes, but why did he get better as the year went on instead of the opposite? His injury concerns are valid, but if healthy, he's likely to be better since it will be his second full yr in the bigs.

 

AJ could be bad AJ all year long, that's valid. I said I think he could creep his ERA into the high 4's. It's not rocket science, the guy's ERA was 5.15. Is it out of the realm of possibility for him to get to 4.70, especially with how he finished? Even the biggest Boston homer would agree with me on this one. It's plausible. The only thing I gave AJ credit for was his health. 3 straight seasons now, he's been healthy and he's eaten innings.

 

I agree totally on Garcia. I didnt like his resigning, but for 2 yrs in a row now, he's put up similar numbers. He's a guy who pitched to a 4.64ERA with almost the same numbers in 2010. The big thing he did in 2011 was limit HRs, which is weird since he plays in YS. Regardless, he could be out of the rotation come the ASB. I am skeptical

 

Now, how am I not being a realist. You're effectively telling me what I should be saying while I acknowledged all of the above in my initial post. Not sure what kind of ground you are breaking here, Dutch

[Meh]

A typo, which isn't of the logical or homer variety. Think about it for a second.

 

Anyways, you didn't debate my actual points. Can i take that as agreement?

 

Debate what? I asked you to breakdown the Red Sox rotation and you did the Yankees... I said Jackson gave a realistic opinion on the Yankees rotation, CC and AJ's are on par with their track records. He blasted Garcia and to some degree Hughes. Finally, Nova was lights out in the second half. He never says he will be an ace in 2012. I don't understand what you're trying to say here...

[a700hitter]

While the Red Sox have a superior top 3 starters when healthy, I think it is fairly clear that the Yankees have deeper pitching both at the major league level and in the high minors-- much more depth of good arms. The Sox organization has almost no starting depth below the major league roster. This is no great secret. Tampa also has superior depth to the Sox.

[User Name]

Hey, don't let me get under your hair here. Notice how i said all of those are possibilities. I didn't say they would happen, but rather that they could happen. I don't know a lot about Warren but i'm actually fairly informed on Phelps and Noesi (who i'm ashamed to admit i'm a fan of) and i was encouraged by his increase in velocity in the DWL until the control problems started. He cannot locate his breaking ball. On the rest of the butthurt areas of your post, i'm simply putting forth all of the possibilities that you handily forgot to mention in your initial analysis but that you were sure to have posted had it been about the Sox.

 

By the way, not everyone who disagrees with you is Dutchy. As per some members from TalkPats, that's your binky whenever someone new does disagree with you. Drop it, i'm not Dutchy. If you don't believe me, check my User at TalkPats, where i'd been posting for months before coming here. @ Jacko

[User Name]

Debate what? I asked you to breakdown the Red Sox rotation and you did the Yankees... I said Jackson gave a realistic opinion on the Yankees rotation' date=' CC and AJ's are on par with their track records. He blasted Garcia and to some degree Hughes. Finally, Nova was lights out in the second half. He never says he will be an ace in 2012. I don't understand what you're trying to say here...[/quote']

 

So i take it you liked the breakdown? I make myself proud.