2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[example1]

It is irrelevant to to 2012 pitching staff whether he gets a team friendly deal extending beyond 2012. So you are saying definitively that the net improvement in the starting pitching due to Bard moving into the rotation will exceed the negative effect of him being moved from his spot as the 8th inning guy? And do you think that difference will be significant?

 

If there was ever a good time to say "lets wait and see" this is it. I'm not going to react to other posters constant worst case scenarioing, I will just let it be. I suspect the team will make moves during the season of they don't before it. Frankly this high level of argument about things that have little certainty either way gets tiresome. Will it be a net positive if Bard becomes an ace but Melancon sucks and Ortiz rakes but Ellsbury misses 17 games but Youkilis plays 152 and Bailey is the reliever of the year despite the increase in his BB/9 and WHIP, even though the Sox play .579 on the road... It just makes my head hurt.

 

Yes, in theory they could be better with Bard starting. In theory they could be worse. What will dictate that is not the number of ways one has of discussing the same topic, but rather how those players perform on the field.

 

As much as I like discussing baseball I can only stand so much conjecture. When asked why I (and others) think something is plausible I am at a loss to "prove it". I realize this is just part of the fun off season hot stove talk but this is probably the most boring offseason combined with the longest thread in Talksox history by far. That's a very low ratio of substance and a high ratio of conjecturing about conjecture. The first level of conjecture is reasonable, the subsequent ones are akin to The Fonz on waterskis, in my humble view.

[mvp 78]

They will be facing tougher competition this year. Their major opposition has improved significantly while they haven't. No 4 or 5 starter' date=' no ML ready starting SS who can play an entire season. Question marks at third and left. Their catcher is mediocre. But we have said all this before.[/quote']

 

So the only downgrade is SS then?

[Elktonnick]

So the only downgrade is SS then?

 

Youk is not the player he was lasr year. Bailey is no Paplebon and we still have no 4th or 5th starters. So you are saying is nothing is bettter than Lackey and Dice-K. Give me a team who has contended withoout a Shortstop which is probably the most important position defensively.

[Bellhorn04]

Youk is not the player he was lasr year. Bailey is no Paplebon and we still have no 4th or 5th starters. So you are saying is nothing is bettter than Lackey and Dice-K. Give me a team who has contended withoout a Shortstop which is probably the most important position defensively.

 

The Red Sox won it all in 2007 with Lugo. They made the postseason in 2005 with Rent-a-Wreck.

[redsoxfan3]

Youk is not the player he was lasr year. Bailey is no Paplebon and we still have no 4th or 5th starters. So you are saying is nothing is bettter than Lackey and Dice-K. Give me a team who has contended withoout a Shortstop which is probably the most important position defensively.

 

Youk will be a question mark, but I believe he will be better than last year. Supposedly he has slimmed down and is in great shape. If that is true, then that will reduce the chances of him getting hurt. I think we will see an improvement at 3B with Youk actually being healthy. I would not be that concerned about SS. Aviles is a decent hitter and when he starts we have decent offensive contribution from SS. His defense is not horrible either. I have seen a lot worse. Punto is great defensively, so that will be a plus with him filling in when needed at SS. You say it is the most important position defensively, but that isn't always true. It is an important, don't get me wrong, but with Youk at 3B, Pedroia at 2B, and Gonzalez at 1B we have a strong infield. We probably have one of the strongest infields on the right side, if not the strongest infield on the right side. A lot of time people consider the SS the captain of the defense, but with Pedroia providing leadership in the middle of the infield, I am not too worried about SS. We will be fine there. I do agree that there will be a question mark there because we do not have Scutaro, but I think Aviles and Punto will be a good combo to fill-in in Scutaro's place.

 

Also, with the 4th and 5th starter situation, don't get too worried as of now. Oswalt, Jackson, and Floyd are all still options. We also haven't even started Spring Training. We will know our 4th and 5th starters once Spring Training is over. We have a lot of competition in camp, we will be able to find someone that will be an upgrade over Lackey and Wakefield. We don't have as good of a closer as Papelbon, but I believe Bailey will do just fine. Don't forget we also have Melancon and Aceves at the backend of the pen, and possibly Bard, depending on what happens in Spring Training. We will be better off in RF and possibly LF as well. CC can't really do any worse than last year and we were horrible offensively last year in RF. Our offense and defense are really not the problems, that will be our pitching. We just need to be patient and see how things go this Spring.

[a700hitter]

If there was ever a good time to say "lets wait and see" this is it. I'm not going to react to other posters constant worst case scenarioing, I will just let it be. I suspect the team will make moves during the season of they don't before it. Frankly this high level of argument about things that have little certainty either way gets tiresome. Will it be a net positive if Bard becomes an ace but Melancon sucks and Ortiz rakes but Ellsbury misses 17 games but Youkilis plays 152 and Bailey is the reliever of the year despite the increase in his BB/9 and WHIP, even though the Sox play .579 on the road... It just makes my head hurt.

 

Yes, in theory they could be better with Bard starting. In theory they could be worse. What will dictate that is not the number of ways one has of discussing the same topic, but rather how those players perform on the field.

 

As much as I like discussing baseball I can only stand so much conjecture. When asked why I (and others) think something is plausible I am at a loss to "prove it". I realize this is just part of the fun off season hot stove talk but this is probably the most boring offseason combined with the longest thread in Talksox history by far. That's a very low ratio of substance and a high ratio of conjecturing about conjecture. The first level of conjecture is reasonable, the subsequent ones are akin to The Fonz on waterskis, in my humble view.

I am not really conjecturing about anything. I'm not predicting injury or good health or under or over performance. I am simply looking at the talent added and lost since last season. At best, we come out even after looking at the personnel changes. I think that we are a slightly less talented squad, because our infield depth is not good and we don't have a true every day SS. If we didn't improve, I don't know how much better we can expect to perform. How can we project that a team with slightly less talent than the squad that finished 2011 will improve to 95-96 wins? I just don't know how anyone gets there. Add to that the fact that the Yankees and Angels have improved, the Rays have kept their young staff together and they have one young kid poised to break out. The Rangers look strong again and the Tigers have made significant improvements too. It doesn't add up to me that we should expect a better outcome than last season-- without conjecturing about performance or injury.

[a700hitter]

Looking at Ben & Cherries first off season at the helm and acknowledging that the off season is not finished, at this point, IMO there has been a net decrease in talent on this squad. At best, it is the same.

[MANNYHOF24]

Youk is not the player he was lasr year. Bailey is no Paplebon and we still have no 4th or 5th starters. So you are saying is nothing is bettter than Lackey and Dice-K. Give me a team who has contended withoout a Shortstop which is probably the most important position defensively.

 

You have no way of knowing what Youk will produce. I think he is going to be better than what he was in 2011.

[a700hitter]

You have no way of knowing what Youk will produce. I think he is going to be better than what he was in 2011.

If fat Miggy Cabrera can play full time at 3B, it can't be too physically demanding. Youk needs to come in 20 lbs lighter to take the pressure off his back.

[example1]

I am not really conjecturing about anything. I'm not predicting injury or good health or under or over performance. I am simply looking at the talent added and lost since last season. At best' date=' we come out even after looking at the personnel changes. I think that we are a slightly less talented squad, because our infield depth is not good and we don't have a true every day SS. If we didn't improve, I don't know how much better we can expect to perform. How can we project that a team with slightly less talent than the squad that finished 2011 will improve to 95-96 wins? I just don't know how anyone gets there. Add to that the fact that the Yankees and Angels have improved, the Rays have kept their young staff together and they have one young kid poised to break out. The Rangers look strong again and the Tigers have made significant improvements too. It doesn't add up to me that we should expect a better outcome than last season-- without conjecturing about performance or injury.[/quote']

 

It's easy to project better. The talent is similar. Last years team massively underachieved. This team has a new manager and it is a different team. If their trouble last year was mental rather than talent then there are plenty of reasons to think they could get better results. They may not but it is definitely possible.

 

All these points have been made before. It is more than just additions and losses. It's new personalities, a new season and a fresh start. None of us can "prove" it will be better, we will just have to see.

[Bellhorn04]

Looking at Ben & Cherries first off season at the helm and acknowledging that the off season is not finished' date=' at this point, IMO there has been a net decrease in talent on this squad. At best, it is the same.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I wouldn't disagree with that. What I am a little surprised at is how little attention is being paid to our possible upgrades in the intangible areas. New manager, now coaches, new training & medical people. I think it's been widely acknowledged that we were poor in these areas last year. I also realize that it's difficult to assign quantitative values to such an upgrade. But we've certainly heard about Francona costing us games, the medical staff costing us games, the lousy conditioning & clubhouse morale costing us games.

[SoxSport]

If fat Miggy Cabrera can play full time at 3B' date=' it can't be too physically demanding. Youk needs to come in 20 lbs lighter to take the pressure off his back.[/quote']

 

There aren't many who think Miggy can play 3B a full season. I've heard he might wind up in LF. He or Fielder may wind up alternating at 1B and DH--which is where the Tigers would really like to play them, but they don't have the balls to tell them. It's like forcing CC to bat 7th the whole season. You don't pay guys that kind of money to do that.

[a700hitter]

It's easy to project better. The talent is similar. Last years team massively underachieved. This team has a new manager and it is a different team. If their trouble last year was mental rather than talent then there are plenty of reasons to think they could get better results. They may not but it is definitely possible.

 

All these points have been made before. It is more than just additions and losses. It's new personalities, a new season and a fresh start. None of us can "prove" it will be better, we will just have to see.

The 2011 Red Sox didn't massively under perform. We led the league in runs. Our offense was a powerhouse. Ellsbury had a breakout season and Ortiz was consistently excellent from beginning to end against lefties and righties. Scutaro had one of his best offensive seasons and Salty performed better than most expected. Beckett had one of his best seasons in a while and Lester was a little off, but not by a lot. We performed very well in the pen in the 8th and 9th innings, and Aceves was a huge shot in the arm. I don't know where you are seeing this massive underperformance. It just wasn't so. The portions that underperformed like the back end of the starting pitching has not been significantly upgraded.

 

I am looking at talent coming in and talent going out and that looks like a net decrease or about the same as last year. You accuse others of engaging in conjecture, but it is you that is engaging in conjecture, and I don't think you have a solid basis for it at all.

[a700hitter]

Yeah' date=' I wouldn't disagree with that. [b'] What I am a little surprised at is how little attention is being paid to our possible upgrades in the intangible areas. New manager, now coaches, new training & medical people. I think it's been widely acknowledged that we were poor in these areas last year. [/b] I also realize that it's difficult to assign quantitative values to such an upgrade. But we've certainly heard about Francona costing us games, the medical staff costing us games, the lousy conditioning & clubhouse morale costing us games.

I think you are right on about this. The only area of significant change and upgrade is with the coaching staff and other management functions. If we do materially better with this current roster, it will be due to those changes, because the roster has not improved at all.

[BSN07]

At long last, an awkward showdown, one that began with all manner of speculation at the end of the 2010 season and included an infamous Starbucks sighting, will have its day. The Cubs and Red Sox will soon meet with a representative of the Commissioner's Office or the commissioner himself to discuss the Epstein compensation issue. The best school of thought on this comes from an AL GM who is not associated with either team: "I think the commissioner will give the Red Sox a significant player. I don't think MLB wants executives leaving their teams before their contracts are up and therefore he will try to deter teams from doing that again."

 

That be nice. I still don't see them getting anything of note. If Selig wants to set an example he should make a rule that if a GM leaves early for another club he has to take one contract of the parted club's choice with him

[iortiz]

The 2011 Red Sox didn't massively under perform. We led the league in runs. Our offense was a powerhouse. Ellsbury had a breakout season and Ortiz was consistently excellent from beginning to end against lefties and righties. Scutaro had one of his best offensive seasons and Salty performed better than most expected. Beckett had one of his best seasons in a while and Lester was a little off, but not by a lot. We performed very well in the pen in the 8th and 9th innings, and Aceves was a huge shot in the arm. I don't know where you are seeing this massive underperformance. It just wasn't so. The portions that underperformed like the back end of the starting pitching has not been significantly upgraded.

 

I am looking at talent coming in and talent going out and that looks like a net decrease or about the same as last year. You accuse others of engaging in conjecture, but it is you that is engaging in conjecture, and I don't think you have a solid basis for it at all.

 

Our problem has been/could be our rotation. Thus far, we haven't addressed this issue. Last year, 3-5 didn't exist. Today 4-5 are huge question marks. Our BP is a mystery without our ace closer and with our setup up man likely moving up to the rotatation. We do not have an everyday SS. CC and Kalish are between cottons. How confident will they comeback after their surgeries? Mystery to me.

They say that Youk and Buchy are 100% healthy, I want to belive that. Ross could be a great platoon/depth if Kalish come around in good shape. They say that Buchy-Bard-Aceves will be better than Lackey-Wakefield-Miller, I tend to agree, but still 4-5 are question marks/promises/huge risks (if you start with both) and how many innings will they give you combined?

 

Those are our realities. Those question marks could play in our favor or against us. Yes, It's all about perspective. If we bring another SP, we will likely close the gap in both rotation/BP and we will likely impact our final W-L record, for how much? I do not know but probably good enough to make the POs.

[iortiz]

Roy Oswalt Not Interested In Guardians, Blue Jays

By Tim Dierkes [January 30 at 7:23am CST]

Free agent righty Roy Oswalt is scheduled to meet with the Rangers today, we learned last week from Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. *The latest on the three-time All-Star:

 

Oswalt let the Guardians and Blue Jays know he has no interest, tweets Peter Gammons of MLB Network. *Oswalt clearly wants the Rangers or Cardinals, writes Gammons. *Gammons' tweet does not reference the Red Sox, who reportedly made an offer last week. *The Red Sox have not considered themselves out of the hunt, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. *Oswalt's agent Bob Garber told me on Saturday his client has no chance of landing in a bullpen, so if the Rangers or Cardinals sign him, a corresponding move will be necessary.*

[FredLynn]

The Red Sox won it all in 2007 with Lugo. They made the postseason in 2005 with Rent-a-Wreck.

 

We also had great pitching in 2007. We do not have that this year...or last year...or the year before that.

[Bellhorn04]

We also had great pitching in 2007. We do not have that this year...or last year...or the year before that.

 

Yes, but

 

a) Elktonnick's statement was 'give me a team that has contended without a shortstop'.

Our pitching flat out sucked in 2005-11th in the league in ERA. We won 95 games with sucky pitching and Rent-a-Wreck butchering it at SS.

[Elktonnick]

You have no way of knowing what Youk will produce. I think he is going to be better than what he was in 2011.

 

When Youk plays he'll do fine the first half of the year. Over the past several years he tails off the second half. Plus based on his history he is unlikely to play more than 120 games.

[Dojji]

We also had great pitching in 2007. We do not have that this year...or last year...or the year before that.

 

We had better pitching in 08 TBH.

 

In 07 our rotation was Beckett, Schill, Daisuke, Wake, Tavarez, with cameos by Gabbard and Lester and one or two starts from Buchholz. Our bullpen was Paps and Oki, which was great until Oki fell apart in August, and then we had the Gagne disaster, Javier Lopez, Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder and Mike Timlin.

 

Nowhere in there do I see "great pitching." It's pretty good mind, especially with Beckett being an absolute horse that year. That season though was all about the last truly great years of Manny and Papi in Red Sox uniforms.

[Bellhorn04]

We had better pitching in 08 TBH.

 

In 07 our rotation was Beckett, Schill, Daisuke, Wake, Tavarez, with cameos by Gabbard and Lester and one or two starts from Buchholz. Our bullpen was Paps and Oki, which was great until Oki fell apart in August, and then we had the Gagne disaster, Javier Lopez, Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder and Mike Timlin.

 

Nowhere in there do I see "great pitching." It's pretty good mind, especially with Beckett being an absolute horse that year. That season though was all about the last truly great years of Manny and Papi in Red Sox uniforms.

 

Yes, the 2007 pitching numbers are very interesting. Beckett was the only starter who had an exceptional year, but we led the league in ERA. The overall numbers put up by the bullpen were outstanding, including guys like Delcarmen.

[Muggah]

When Youk plays he'll do fine the first half of the year. Over the past several years he tails off the second half. Plus based on his history he is unlikely to play more than 120 games.

 

Not to mention he's had, historically, bad second halves even when he was healthy. Your 120 games may even be a bit high.

[Dojji]

That was the best year we got out of Coco Crisp. He wasn't much with a bat in his hands, but in the field he made some plays that made your jaw drop. He bailed out our pitching staff time and again. The pitchers loved having him out there that year.

 

Unfortunately for Coco, it was pretty much just that year, and he reverted to a more ordinarily solid defender going forward. Still one of the most undertold stories of that 07 campaign IMHO. A centerfielder rarely carries a team defensively, but Coco? That year? Absolutely did. The impact of his defense that year was just amazing from beginning to end. So many clutch runs prevented.

 

No disrespect intended to Jacoby, but when it comes to actually playing his position defensively, he couldn't hold a candle to 2007 Coco. He should have won a gold glove, if that award was not a total popularity contest.

 

07 was also Tek's last really good year too. That makes a big difference.

[example1]

The 2011 Red Sox didn't massively under perform. We led the league in runs. Our offense was a powerhouse. Ellsbury had a breakout season and Ortiz was consistently excellent from beginning to end against lefties and righties. Scutaro had one of his best offensive seasons and Salty performed better than most expected. Beckett had one of his best seasons in a while and Lester was a little off, but not by a lot. We performed very well in the pen in the 8th and 9th innings, and Aceves was a huge shot in the arm. I don't know where you are seeing this massive underperformance. It just wasn't so. The portions that underperformed like the back end of the starting pitching has not been significantly upgraded.

 

I am looking at talent coming in and talent going out and that looks like a net decrease or about the same as last year. You accuse others of engaging in conjecture, but it is you that is engaging in conjecture, and I don't think you have a solid basis for it at all.

 

Have I accused others of engaging in conjecture? I think I've said that all anyone is doing is conjecture, because the only way to know who is "right" or "wrong" is based on how the team does. If I accused others of conjecture I bet it was in response to being accused of conjecturing myself. I just suspect it because I don't really use the word "conjecture" as a regular part of my vocab.

 

All we can do is wait to see the results... or just keep saying the same things over and over and over. It's all conjecture at this point. No shame in that.

 

I've stated my reasons for my thought time and time again. Anyone who is using a projection of 2012 performance is basing it on conjecture because the season hasn't started yet. "Bard could be a good SP" is conjecture. So is "Melancon is probably getting better". This team is built on "mights", with the clear theory that the players they have can get the job done.

 

I know you aren't comfortable with that. You want to have the certainty that Roy Oswalt provides. Of course, assuming that Oswalt will produce anything like what he has in the past is conjecture at its best, but I accept conjecture because, again, its all we have now.

 

As I said in a previous post, I think this thread has jumped the shark. The same arguments have been restated literally dozens, maybe hundreds of times. We all know that you don't think that looking at the rosters gives us the assurance the team will be better than it was. When people give you reasons why it might be better (Bard could be a very good starter, Buchholz should be back, they are unlikely to have the worst collapse in sports history again, they have a new manager, they don't have Wakefield and Lackey throwing s*** innings, Crawford is bound to be better, etc.,) you come back with the same alternate arguments (they lost Papelbon, Ellsbury will regress, they don't have a clear #5 starter, etc.,).

 

Now, we could try to figure out exactly how many wins the possible good points and the possible bad points could make, but that is an exercise in futility. Your estimation is that they will be "the same" or "worse". I'm saying that I think they will be roughly "the same" or "better". I fully admit I could be wrong. You fully admit you could be wrong.

 

Attempts to be more specific will be conjecture on conjecture... there's nothing wrong with conjecture when it's all you have, but conjecturing about conjecture just to keep a conversation going--one which is the longest in board history despite a really, really slow offseason--is not worth doing in my mind. Your view may differ.

[FredLynn]

We had better pitching in 08 TBH.

 

In 07 our rotation was Beckett, Schill, Daisuke, Wake, Tavarez, with cameos by Gabbard and Lester and one or two starts from Buchholz. Our bullpen was Paps and Oki, which was great until Oki fell apart in August, and then we had the Gagne disaster, Javier Lopez, Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder and Mike Timlin.

 

Nowhere in there do I see "great pitching." It's pretty good mind, especially with Beckett being an absolute horse that year. That season though was all about the last truly great years of Manny and Papi in Red Sox uniforms.

 

In 2007 we lead the AL in ERA. In 2008 we had good pitching too, finishing fourth in ERA. Overall, we did have great pitching in 2007, if you look at our ERA relative to our competition.

[FredLynn]

Yes, but

 

a) Elktonnick's statement was 'give me a team that has contended without a shortstop'.

Our pitching flat out sucked in 2005-11th in the league in ERA. We won 95 games with sucky pitching and Rent-a-Wreck butchering it at SS.

 

I think we could win with a rent-a-wreck at SS, but only if our pitching is very good. I would not count on winning 95 games with our current competition and current pitching staff. That was an aberration.

[Dojji]

In 2007 we lead the AL in ERA. In 2008 we had good pitching too' date=' finishing fourth in ERA. Overall, we did have great pitching in 2007, if you look at our ERA relative to our competition.[/quote']

 

I wouldn't call it "great pitching" if you look up and down the rotation and wonder how on earth that pitching staff managed to deliver it.

 

07 was the last great year for Varitek and Crisp. I'd be more inclined to give them, along with Pedroia all the credit for that run. We've never been that strong up the middle since. Throw Lugo a bone too, he was a disaster offensively, but he did his job with the leather that year.

[FredLynn]

I wouldn't call it "great pitching" if you look up and down the rotation and wonder how on earth that pitching staff managed to deliver it.

 

07 was the last great year for Varitek and Crisp. I'd be more inclined to give them, along with Pedroia all the credit for that run. We've never been that strong up the middle since. Throw Lugo a bone too, he was a disaster offensively, but he did his job with the leather that year.

 

When a team leads the league in ERA, in my book thats great pitching. You cannot take a team ERA in a vacuum. I think we were at 3.87 that year. Relative to the rest of the AL, we did have great pitching that year. IMO. (semantics)

[User Name]

Wait, they did lead the AL in ERA. My bad, i thought you meant the league.