2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

You can't deduct the Sox' interest in Oswalt from the fact that they are not close on contract negotiations. He could be priority A1 for them right now but they could still be far apart in the negotiations.

[jung]

You can't deduct the Sox' interest in Oswalt from the fact that they are not close on contract negotiations. He could be priority A1 for them right now but they could still be far apart in the negotiations.

 

OK lets go with this then.

 

Oswalt has been out there for $8M for an eternity for a guy that is such a "bargain". If they are not close, what does that suggest? Does it suggest that the Sox want to offer Oswalt $10M and his agents are trying to figure out what they are missing? It should be clear that while they are negotiating with him, they are not offering him $10M or $8M. If they are offering him $7.5, that does not make sense either. They could just as easily lose him doing that as anything else and then they will not have lost him for $1M or $2M but will have lost him for $500k.

 

He is a player that they are willing to take on their terms even when the dollar increments might be as small as a couple $M and that is not what I would describe as a player that they have made a priority.

[example1]

I see a few factors at play here. First, Oswalt isn't the only pitcher available and he isn't getting too many offers. Perhaps they are right to wait him out, or maybe they know what Gavin Floyd would cost and think one or the other will be available at a decent price.

 

Also, does anyone else think it is important to have a bit of spending room for the actual season? Usually teams need to add a piece here or there over a season. They may need to free up more room.

[a700hitter]

I see a few factors at play here. First, Oswalt isn't the only pitcher available and he isn't getting too many offers. Perhaps they are right to wait him out, or maybe they know what Gavin Floyd would cost and think one or the other will be available at a decent price.

 

Also, does anyone else think it is important to have a bit of spending room for the actual season? Usually teams need to add a piece here or there over a season. They may need to free up more room.

I thought that the money spent during the season didn't count towards the cap.

[jacksonianmarch]

It does count proactively. If you sign an extension in season, then the extension doesnt count.

[User Name]

The cap is calculated at the end of the season. Which is why mid-season acquisitions count at a pro-rated rate towards the cap.

[jacksonianmarch]

I advocated dealing for Floyd awhile ago. He'd be exactly what the sox need. A solid middle of the rotation starter who is durable. But I have a feeling the Pale Hose are looking for a return the sox arent capable of giving just yet

[jung]

I see a few factors at play here. First, Oswalt isn't the only pitcher available and he isn't getting too many offers. Perhaps they are right to wait him out, or maybe they know what Gavin Floyd would cost and think one or the other will be available at a decent price.

 

Also, does anyone else think it is important to have a bit of spending room for the actual season? Usually teams need to add a piece here or there over a season. They may need to free up more room.

 

I agree that both of these might be at play E. It is just this sort of reasoning that makes me suspect that the point of the negotiation with Oswalt (presuming it is happening at all) is to move some of his desired $8M to incentives based from pure salary so that they know to some extent what they are getting for a commitment in dollars that puts them over the cap. That would also explain the time element as any contract that includes incentives is more difficult to put together by the offering party and more difficult to vet by the party offered to.

[User Name]

OK lets go with this then.

 

Oswalt has been out there for $8M for an eternity for a guy that is such a "bargain". If they are not close, what does that suggest? Does it suggest that the Sox want to offer Oswalt $10M and his agents are trying to figure out what they are missing? It should be clear that while they are negotiating with him, they are not offering him $10M or $8M. If they are offering him $7.5, that does not make sense either. They could just as easily lose him doing that as anything else and then they will not have lost him for $1M or $2M but will have lost him for $500k.

 

He is a player that they are willing to take on their terms even when the dollar increments might be as small as a couple $M and that is not what I would describe as a player that they have made a priority.

 

We have no idea how the negotiations are going. Maybe there's another hold-up, like health protection or they are trying to add an option a la Beltre to lower the salary cap hit.

[jacksonianmarch]

BTW, anyone who thought King Felix was an option can quash that dream. The Yankees offered Montero, Betances, AND Banuelos and they said no.

[jung]

We have no idea how the negotiations are going. Maybe there's another hold-up, like health protection or they are trying to add an option a la Beltre to lower the salary cap hit.

 

Maybe...but after all these weeks of "negotiating" and it has now been weeks that the Sox have supposedly been talking to Oswalt, some of these small print issues have not been covered. Hard to believe. I am still more inclined to think that if they are deeply engaged with Oswalt at this point it is an effort to get some money into incentives.

[User Name]

Incentives met would still count against the cap...so i doubt it.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the sox would be willing to go over the cap if he met his incentives. I dont think they will be willing to guarantee that they are over the cap by signing him.

[jung]

I know incentives would count against the cap. But pushing some of the money to incentives means the Sox can actually buy something tangible in the form of innings or outs or runs limitation for the money they spend on him. It would be a means of convincing themselves that a portion of the money paid is tied to something real...something beyond Oswalt showing up in a uniform and from where the Sox sit today, that might be what it takes for them to commit the funds that Oswalt wants.

[a700hitter]

Giants Optimistic About New Deal With Cain

By Zach Links [January 22 at 8:01pm CST]

 

There are early indications that the Giants will have a decent or better chance to lock Matt Cain on another long-term deal, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman adds that the club offered Tim Lincecum a deal worth at least $100MM over five years but is now focusing on one- and two-year deals after being rebuffed.

 

Giants people are saying only that talks are "ongoing'' with Cain, but there seems to be a fair amount of optimism they can keep Cain for less than $20MM a season. Cain already took one long team-friendly deal when he agreed to a three-year, $27.25MM contract prior to the 2010 season. Our own Luke Adams recently explored what it would take for the Giants to lock the 27-year-old up with a new deal.

 

However, Lincecum seems more likely to wind up with a two-year deal rather than sign a contract into his free-agent years. We've heard all offseason that the pitcher is in search of a short-term deal. Yesterday we learned that the Giants offered a two-year, $40MM contract and Lincecum's representatives countered with a two-year, $44MM offer.

 

Heyman writes that baseball people believe that Cain could match Cliff Lee's $120MM deal as a free agent if he tests the market after the year, but word is that he badly wants to stay in San Francisco. Those in the industry also believe that if Lincecum can put together two more outstanding years, he can become the game's first $200MM pitcher on the open market in 2013.

[seabeachfred]

IMO we would have lost more with Scu's departure than the 6M.

 

Assuming that we go like this, of course. (without Scu and/or SP and over the cap...the worst scenario, IMO.)

 

I'm certain if this thing doesn't go through Cherington will be skewered by the press, media and most of the fans on the various and sundry blogs and boards. To lose Scutaro and not get anything in the way of a quality pitcher would tell us that this season is a crapola, though I'll bet we won't see a corresponding lowering of ticket prices for the more inferior product they are putting on the field. That is why I still have to believe that we are going to sign a good pitcher whether it be Oswalt or Floyd.

[seabeachfred]

I read something today that the Sox still might look to trim more payroll. Maybe there is another salary dump coming.

 

Pray tell 700, where would the dumps come from anyway? Maybe some of the stiffs we signed recently? McDonald? Punto? I'd sure like to know where if that story you read had any legs.

[a700hitter]

Pray tell 700' date=' where would the dumps come from anyway? Maybe some of the stiffs we signed recently? McDonald? Punto? I'd sure like to know where if that story you read had any legs.[/quote']I was wondering the same thing. Who could they possibly dump or trade for payroll reasons? I'm not seeing any possibilities other than Youkilis, and we'd have to sell low on him.

[jung]

Boy unless there are some small contracts that the Sox can turn into even smaller contracts by trading the player, I don't see it. At this point having traded Scuts I don't see them trading Youk. Who knows, you trade a guy or two making $1.5M or $2M and replace them with guys making less and you save a few $M. But I don't see a trade involving big name players coming and I would even view trades at a much lower level to e unlikely at this point unless it is a trade that brings them pitching.

 

Would love to be a fly on the wall at this point just to understand what they are really trying to do at this moment. There is really not that much time left before they have to leave for ST.

[iortiz]

I just came back from the cinema and I tought that Oswalt was already signed by us...

 

Maybe tomo.

[jung]

Manana....manana.....always manana

[iortiz]

Manana....manana.....always manana

 

Well, technically maybe this is going to happen el Martes

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone who's interested in the luxury tax and where it's headed under the new agreement should read this. It's an eye-opener. It explains why under the new agreement teams will be even more discouraged from exceeding the threshold, because of the added penalty on revenue sharing recovery. As the writer said, it's surprising that the players union agreed to this.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45554847/Did_The_Baseball_Union_Make_a_Colossal_Mistake

[redsoxfan3]

Here is a thought for everyone to think about today. I know that we have a gap at SS right now. I mentioned this before. What if Pedroia is moved to SS? I feel that Punto/Aviles would be a good combo at 2nd. I know that Pedroia definitely could be a good SS. My logic behind this is about the future. We have Iglesias probably ready to play SS next year if everything goes as planned. But, we also have Oscar Tejeda as a possible future 2B. It is hard to estimate if he will pan out, but say he is ready for the show in a couple of years. We could have Middlebrooks at 3B, Pedroia at SS, Tejeda at 2B, and Gonzalez at 1B. I hope Pedroia is around for a while, but we also have Bogaerts as a future SS, along with Iglesias. I guess my logic is, whoever pans out, Pedroia could play SS or 2B. I don't see him moving to SS, but it might be worth thinking about.

[mvp 78]

Not sure Pedroia's arm is strong enough for SS.

[RedSoxFan84]

Here is a thought for everyone to think about today. I know that we have a gap at SS right now. I mentioned this before. What if Pedroia is moved to SS? I feel that Punto/Aviles would be a good combo at 2nd. I know that Pedroia definitely could be a good SS. My logic behind this is about the future. We have Iglesias probably ready to play SS next year if everything goes as planned. But' date=' we also have Oscar Tejeda as a possible future 2B. It is hard to estimate if he will pan out, but say he is ready for the show in a couple of years. We could have Middlebrooks at 3B, Pedroia at SS, Tejeda at 2B, and Gonzalez at 1B. I hope Pedroia is around for a while, but we also have Bogaerts as a future SS, along with Iglesias. I guess my logic is, whoever pans out, Pedroia could play SS or 2B. I don't see him moving to SS, but it might be worth thinking about.[/quote']

 

 

 

I get the point that you're trying to make there, but I don't really think the changes you made make it any easier as we plan for the future. You mentioned that Pedroia could play SS, which opens it up for Tejeda to get his chance at 2nd. That's great, but then we just have the same situation with Iglesias not getting a chance. Basically, whether Pedroia plays SS or 2nd, it means that one of Tejeda and Iglesias wont have much of a chance. I guess the question then becomes who is likely to be the better of Tejeda and Iglesias? Whichever one pans out better should get their chance, and Pedroia can play whichever of the positions is vacant.

 

Regarding Bogaerts, I don't know a huge amount about the kid, but the talk seems to be that he will become too big to play SS and is more likely to end up at 3rd or in the OF.

[redsoxfan3]

Not sure Pedroia's arm is strong enough for SS.

 

Personally go up to Pedroia and tell him you don't think his arm is strong enough for SS. That is the exact reason he loves to play the game. There are always doubters and he always proves them wrong. I would say that you have a logical opinion, but I personally think he is capable of playing SS.

 

I get the point that you're trying to make there, but I don't really think the changes you made make it any easier as we plan for the future. You mentioned that Pedroia could play SS, which opens it up for Tejeda to get his chance at 2nd. That's great, but then we just have the same situation with Iglesias not getting a chance. Basically, whether Pedroia plays SS or 2nd, it means that one of Tejeda and Iglesias wont have much of a chance. I guess the question then becomes who is likely to be the better of Tejeda and Iglesias? Whichever one pans out better should get their chance, and Pedroia can play whichever of the positions is vacant.

 

Regarding Bogaerts, I don't know a huge amount about the kid, but the talk seems to be that he will become too big to play SS and is more likely to end up at 3rd or in the OF.

 

Well, that is basically what I was getting at. In the end, it depends on who pans out in the majors. Everyone is saying that they don't like Iglesias's bat, but maybe Tejeda will have a better year in AA and will improve his bat. Only time will tell and this is just hypothetical. It is good to have options. The scouts say that Bogaerts will be too big to play SS, but then again scouts are not always right. Only time will tell with him as well. He is one of our best prospects. Personally he is right behind Middlebrooks in my opinion. 3B will be blocked by Middlebrooks most likely, so if anything, I hope this kid is playing SS or an OF position for us in the future.

[jopete19]

I was wondering the same thing. Who could they possibly dump or trade for payroll reasons? I'm not seeing any possibilities other than Youkilis' date=' and we'd have to sell low on him.[/quote']

 

If we were to trade Youkilis we wouldn't have a left side of our infield

[Station 13]

If we were to trade Youkilis we wouldn't have a left side of our infield

 

We would lose our clean up hitter, only RHH powerbat. Not happening.

 

Youk got a ton of value if we sell him as a 1B. But we're not selling him.

[Station 13]

11:53pm: Knobler indicates that Oswalt has turned the Tigers down even though they were very interested in signing him (Twitter links). They even had Justin Verlander make a recruiting call. He says the Tigers are likely to leave the fifth starter's job up for grabs in Spring Training.