2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Its 129.4+30.4+1.3+12.7. Thats 174.1. What am I missing?

 

You're missing the small salaries from McDonald down to Reddick. Those are all individual amounts.

 

Also those numbers now have to be updated for Sweeney signing for 1.75 and Salty for 2.5. A new projection should put us at already around 180 million. There's no way we're under the cap unless they trade somebody.

[FredLynn]

Your right...he only has $1.6M allocated to three unnamed players but that isn't enough. So they are already cutting into the margin to the cap limit.

 

Still and all, they could actually be just barely under looking for some way to move salary to bring in salary which is what the pundits appear to be saying. Now it maybe boils down to how cleverly they move salary and how cleverly they bring salary.

 

Reddick is listed; also, those guys who have options can be sent down. Does their salary then count if they never get to the ML? Furthermore, some of those guys who are out of options, like Bowden, could be released.

[redsoxfan3]

I have been doing a lot of thinking with the pitching on this team lately. Our rotation probably looks something like this:

 

Lester

Beckett

Buchholz

Bard

Silva/Padilla/Cook/Aceves/Miller/Carlson

 

The 5th spot will be decided in the Spring depending if someone evolves as a clear cut 5th starter. It would be ideal to keep Aceves in the pen to have at least Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey for the 7th, 8th, and 9th. Morales, Albers, Jenks, etc. will fill-in. Miller or Padilla could be interesting to watch. Miller could be a long inning reliever and Padilla has some experience closing, so it might be interesting to see if he can be a decent reliever if he doesn't make the rotation.

 

Dice-K will be back sometime after the all-star game. We need to hope that we can rely on Buchholz, Lester, Beckett, and Bard as solid starters. If we do get plagued with injuries, there will be possibilities to trade for someone at the deadline. Carlson could be interesting to watch as a potential starter. He has experience in the AL East and he was actually a decent pitcher a couple years ago. If he can bounce back from his injury then he might not be a bad option as the 5th starter.

 

It doesn't seem likely that we are going to get Oswalt or Saunders. It could be possible, but probably not likely. Something interesting is if we could trade Youkilis to open up some of our salary. If that is the case, we could probably have Aviles start at 3B with Punto helping out in that position. I think Aviles could be a decent short term option for next year, and then we hope Middlebrooks is ready to go in 2013. If we can trade Youk, that means we can probably sign Oswalt. We might be able to trade Youk away for maybe a 4th right handed hitting OF and for a decent bullpen arm. That would be an interesting idea that I am sure the FO has thought about. Either way, I think we will be competitive.

[iortiz]

You're missing the small salaries from McDonald down to Reddick. Those are all individual amounts.

 

Also those numbers now have to be updated for Sweeney signing for 1.75 and Salty for 2.5. A new projection should put us at already around 180 million. There's no way we're under the cap unless they trade somebody.

 

Ben, sign the goddamn Oswalt's check.

[FredLynn]

You're missing the small salaries from McDonald down to Reddick. Those are all individual amounts.

 

Also those numbers now have to be updated for Sweeney signing for 1.75 and Salty for 2.5. A new projection should put us at already around 180 million. There's no way we're under the cap unless they trade somebody.

 

Reddick is gone; Bowden should be gone too. Salty is counted for $2M already. I think they are very close. My guess is that they are under, barely. Otherwise what the owners are doing makes no sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Reddick is gone; Bowden should be gone too. Salty is counted for $2M already. I think they are very close. My guess is that they are under' date=' barely. Otherwise what the owners are doing makes no sense.[/quote']

 

Reddick is gone but replaced by Sweeney. Reddick was estimated at 500K, Sweeney is actually going to get 1.75 million. So they exceeded that estimate by 1.25 million.

[FredLynn]

Here is what the intro to the article says. It says we are NEARING the cap, not over it already:

 

As mentioned in this column, the Red Sox may have only limited financial room to maneuver as they go about addressing their needs this offseason. While the team needs to identify two starters to round out the rotation and must decide what kind of additions to make to its bullpen (a matter that could become pressing if, for instance, Daniel Bard was to move to the rotation), the team is already starting to near the luxury tax threshold of $178 million for 2012.

[jung]

So it looks like they are right on top of the limit. Hopefully we are down to seeing how cleverly they can give salary to take salary. We might even come out of this a feeling a little better about the Sox FO. Heck they sure as hell better be able to add!

[Bellhorn04]

Here is what the intro to the article says. It says we are NEARING the cap, not over it already:

 

As mentioned in this column, the Red Sox may have only limited financial room to maneuver as they go about addressing their needs this offseason. While the team needs to identify two starters to round out the rotation and must decide what kind of additions to make to its bullpen (a matter that could become pressing if, for instance, Daniel Bard was to move to the rotation), the team is already starting to near the luxury tax threshold of $178 million for 2012.

 

If you read the story in the first link you posted, it says it's virtually inevitable that they will go over the cap. The consensus seems to be that they will go over the cap but are trying not to go over it by much.

[Elktonnick]

Doesn't miss bats, high LD%, low average FB speed, only three pitches, moving from Atlanta to Boston, advanced statistics don't treat him well.

 

I think that's a more convincing argument than beating the Phils' middling offense, a win over Texas and Baltimore. That's a tiny sample size, and shouldn't be the pillar for an analysis about the guy.

 

I don't know but his numbers compare pretty close to David Price. He had a bad August which set his numbers back. Doesn't miss bats means he pitches to contact which is not bad in and of itself. Jurrjens is young and cheap if you are worried about lux tax.

[jung]

If you read the story in the first link you posted, it says it's virtually inevitable that they will go over the cap. The consensus seems to be that they will go over the cap but are trying not to go over it by much.

 

Well from where they are today it would be foolhardy to go over by a little bit. I am hoping for the give salary to get salary option.

[FredLynn]

If you read the story in the first link you posted' date=' it says it's virtually inevitable that they will go over the cap. The consensus seems to be that they will go over the cap but are trying not to go over it by much.[/quote']

 

That strategy makes no sense though. Exceeding the cap by $1M or $10M still triggers the surcharge next year. If they are really just penny pinching this year, knowing they will be over the cap by a little bit, there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans. I don't think they can afford that kind of publicity.

We'll see...its close.

[Bellhorn04]

That strategy makes no sense though. Exceeding the cap by $1M or $10M still triggers the surcharge next year. If they are really just penny pinching this year, knowing they will be over the cap by a little bit, there are going to be a lot of pissed off fans. I don't think they can afford that kind of publicity.

We'll see...its close.

 

Yeah, basically I agree. Sign Oswalt.

[User Name]

I don't know but his numbers compare pretty close to David Price. He had a bad August which set his numbers back. Doesn't miss bats means he pitches to contact which is not bad in and of itself. Jurrjens is young and cheap if you are worried about lux tax.

 

You have to factor in the fact that Price pitches in the AL East and Jurrjens pitches in the NL East. Also, Price is healthy, and the IP isn't even close. Advanced metrics also treat Price way better than Jurrjens. Price is miles ahead of Jurrjens.

 

He may be young and cheap, but there are probably better options out there.

[a700hitter]

Reds To Sign Ryan Ludwick

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 16 at 9:09pm CST]

 

The Reds have agreed to sign free agent outfielder Ryan Ludwick to a one-year deal that includes a mutual option for 2013, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Ludwick gets a $2.5MM guarantee and could earn another $500K in incentives, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. Beverly Hills Sports Council represents Ludwick, who played for Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty in St. Louis.

 

Ludwick, who can play left and right field, gives the Reds some much-needed outfield depth. Like left fielder Chris Heisey, Ludwick is a right-handed hitter. However, Ludwick has hit right-handers (.804 OPS) better than left-handers (.751 OPS) in his nine-year career.

 

Ludwick, 33, posted a .237/.310/.363 line with 13 homers for the Padres and Pirates in 2011. His batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all dropped for the third consecutive season. However, UZR/150 suggests Ludwick has played average defense in the outfield corners in recent years.

[seabeachfred]

 

Are you surprised iortiz? I think I said it yesterday that I didn't think the Rangers were going to be able to sign Darvish; I just feel that they will not be able to close the deal so they will to after Oswalt---and maybe that is just as well. I've heard tell that if we give Ortiz a two year contract we would give him less money per year and that would save us some for Oswalt. If that's the master plan the Red Sox ought to shove it where the sun doesn't shine. Bad enough Lavarnway is blocked this year; it would be stupidity personified to have our best young RH power hitter kept out for two years, let alone one....and that's what would happen if we ink Papi for two. We will need some new blood in our lineup very soon and if Middlebrooks doesn't s*** the bed this season at Pawtucket as so many of our "prospects" have done in the past (Lazy Lars come to mind of most recent?), we could have two new young RH hitters with power in our lineup by 2013--and that is the way we should go unless we sign Ortiz for ONE year and then expend the money needed to sign Oswalt.

[User Name]

If they sign Ortiz for two years, Lavarnway is starting 2013 as the main catcher. He probably becomes the #1 catcher either way.

[jung]

Sorry...did not make myself clear. Exceeding by a little bit makes no sense. If they are going to exceed by a little bit then go sign the guy and exceed by more than a little bit. However I think the jury is actually still out based on what they do next. If they can get pitching and still stay under by virtue of trade and some clever movement of players and money then I would opt for that before I would simply say that they have no chance at staying under so go get Oswalt.

 

Besides as usual I don't think it much matters what we want anyway. They appear to have gotten to this point with a purpose. I expect they are going to play this out.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens if some other team makes a real play for Oswalt in the interim. That said I have thought for the longest time that their plans never really included Oswalt, never really included Kuroda and never really included Jackson unless the price for one of those three guys fell right through the floor. Won't be long at this point before we actually and finally know.

[iortiz]

Are you surprised iortiz? I think I said it yesterday that I didn't think the Rangers were going to be able to sign Darvish; I just feel that they will not be able to close the deal so they will to after Oswalt---and maybe that is just as well. I've heard tell that if we give Ortiz a two year contract we would give him less money per year and that would save us some for Oswalt. If that's the master plan the Red Sox ought to shove it where the sun doesn't shine. Bad enough Lavarnway is blocked this year; it would be stupidity personified to have our best young RH power hitter kept out for two years' date=' let alone one....and that's what would happen if we ink Papi for two. We will need some new blood in our lineup very soon and if Middlebrooks doesn't s*** the bed this season at Pawtucket as so many of our "prospects" have done in the past (Lazy Lars come to mind of most recent?), we could have two new young RH hitters with power in our lineup by 2013--and that is the way we should go unless we sign Ortiz for ONE year and then expend the money needed to sign Oswalt.[/quote']

 

I'm not sure how this is going to end but let me tell you this Fred, if we go like this, Ortiz's contract will have collateral consequences:

 

1.- You will block Lav in 2012.

2.- You would not have signed your #1 priority in this 2012 offseason: The Goddamn SP.

3. You will put in risk Aceves' health if he takes the #5 spot in the rotation.

4.- If true #3 You will unbalance the BP.

5.- This team will go likely unbalanced again. A lot of offense and "ifs" and "?" in our pitching.

6.- Probably, you are already over the cap.

7.- If true #6 Our future in terms of LT and payroll, will be affected again.

8.- If Ortiz shits the bed it will be even more painful.

[FredLynn]

Sorry...did not make myself clear. Exceeding by a little bit makes no sense. If they are going to exceed by a little bit then go sign the guy and exceed by more than a little bit. However I think the jury is actually still out based on what they do next. If they can get pitching and still stay under by virtue of trade and some clever movement of players and money then I would opt for that before I would simply say that they have no chance at staying under so go get Oswalt.

 

Besides as usual I don't think it much matters what we want anyway. They appear to have gotten to this point with a purpose. I expect they are going to play this out.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens if some other team makes a real play for Oswalt in the interim. That said I have thought for the longest time that their plans never really included Oswalt, never really included Kuroda and never really included Jackson unless the price for one of those three guys fell right through the floor. Won't be long at this point before we actually and finally know.

 

GMs are expert at getting creative as regards getting under the cap. I suspect that since it really makes no sense to go just a little over the cap this year with a bunch of Sox fans growling at the team already, unless the owners are more foolish then I suspect, they will either sign Oswalt and exceed the cap greatly or stay under it. Anything else is just plain stupid.

Thats what you are saying, and I agree.

[seabeachfred]

 

Are you surprised iortiz? I think I said it yesterday that I didn't think the Rangers were going to be able to sign Darvish; I just feel that they will not be able to close the deal so they will to after Oswalt---and maybe that is just as well. I've heard tell that if we give Ortiz a two year contract we would give him less money per year and that would save us some for Oswalt. If that's the master plan the Red Sox ought to shove it where the sun doesn't shine. Bad enough Lavarnway is blocked this year; it would be stupidity personified to have our best young RH power hitter kept out for two years, let alone one....and that's what would happen if we ink Papi for two. We will need some new blood in our lineup very soon and if Middlebrooks doesn't s*** the bed this season at Pawtucket as so many of our "prospects" have done in the past (Lazy Lars come to mind of most recent?), we could have two new young RH hitters with power in our lineup by 2013--and that is the way we should go unless we sign Ortiz for ONE year and then expend the money needed to sign Oswalt.

[jung]

Thats what you are saying, and I agree.

 

That is exactly what I am saying. pumps.

[iortiz]

That is exactly what I am saying. pumps.

 

+2

[iortiz]

Are you surprised iortiz? I think I said it yesterday that I didn't think the Rangers were going to be able to sign Darvish; I just feel that they will not be able to close the deal so they will to after Oswalt---and maybe that is just as well. I've heard tell that if we give Ortiz a two year contract we would give him less money per year and that would save us some for Oswalt. If that's the master plan the Red Sox ought to shove it where the sun doesn't shine. Bad enough Lavarnway is blocked this year; it would be stupidity personified to have our best young RH power hitter kept out for two years' date=' let alone one....and that's what would happen if we ink Papi for two. We will need some new blood in our lineup very soon and if Middlebrooks doesn't s*** the bed this season at Pawtucket as so many of our "prospects" have done in the past (Lazy Lars come to mind of most recent?), we could have two new young RH hitters with power in our lineup by 2013--and that is the way we should go unless we sign Ortiz for ONE year and then expend the money needed to sign Oswalt.[/quote']

 

This is likely cooking. Tomorrow is the Ortiz' arbitration deadline, isn't it? oh boy, I would have loved seeing that negotiation. Seems like Ortiz has Ben by the balls.

[example1]

Doesn't miss bats, high LD%, low average FB speed, only three pitches, moving from Atlanta to Boston, advanced statistics don't treat him well.

 

I think that's a more convincing argument than beating the Phils' middling offense, a win over Texas and Baltimore. That's a tiny sample size, and shouldn't be the pillar for an analysis about the guy.

 

I hadn't really looked at those numbers but you are right. I thought Jair was closer to Gio Gonzalez in terms of his stuff; he's not. His average FB from 2011 dipped below 90 and were only just above it prior to that.

 

That's not to say he's a bad pitcher, but he's not as good as I thought he was. His K/9 is really low for someone occasionally described as one of the better pitchers in the NL. No thanks... unless he costs less than Youkilis... like Aviles and a mediocre prospect or two.

[jung]

I should have reiterated the comment I heard from Merloni today on EEI and posted as part of a larger poet. Not sure about the credibility of this view but I guess it is in an interesting take on Oswalt and not one that I had considered.

 

Lou's take was that Oswalt would not want to come here which is the same thing as saying he may truly not want to come under any reasonable circumstances or that he will make us pay something of a surcharge to come here.

 

Merloni's point was that Oswalt would not want to come to the AL East on a one year deal because the risk would be far greater that he gets tagged and slapped silly making it harder for him to cut a longer term deal somewhere in 2013. Merloni thinks Oswalt will stay somewhere in the NL for this one year and avoid the risk. He is comfy there. He likes it there and the chances are better that he have a decent year setting himself up for a multiyear deal with somebody in 2013.

 

Not sure what anybody here thinks of that. Not even sure what I think of it other than to say it is different.

[seabeachfred]

I'm not sure how this is going to end but let me tell you this Fred, if we go like this, Ortiz's contract will have collateral consequences:

 

1.- You will block Lav in 2012.

2.- You would not have signed your #1 priority in this 2012 offseason: The Goddamn SP.

3. You will put in risk Aceves' health if he takes the #5 spot in the rotation.

4.- If true #3 You will unbalance the BP.

5.- This team will go likely unbalanced again. A lot of offense and "ifs" and "?" in our pitching.

6.- Probably, you are already over the cap.

7.- If true #6 Our future in terms of LT and payroll, will be affected again.

8.- If Ortiz shits the bed it will be even more painful.

 

Collatoral consequences hell; it will be collatoral damage in a big way, and that is why I hold Benny the Boob in such ill repute. Too many on this board are saying give the guy a chance, let him show what he can do. It is too early to judge him. The hell with that; it is not too easy for me to do that. His giving arbitration to Ortiz was the dumbest move he or any GM could have made. It smothered our chances to get some much needed front line pitching, it blocked arguably our best hitting prospect, and results in the signing of more and more trash like Carlos Hi Ho Silva, Deutschland Justin Germano, Aaron Short Order Cook, not to mention Charlie Haegar Slacks and the miserable holdover from last season, the immortal Andrew Millstone Millbum.

 

Then to make matters worse this boob invites Putritek and Wastefield to Spring Training, as if we didn't already have more than our share of distractions. No my friend, Cherington has already shown that he is not only not big enough for this job but is as close to being an incompetent as any GM in baseball. He is no improvement over the other bum we used to have.

[iortiz]

I should have reiterated the comment I heard from Merloni today on EEI and posted as part of a larger poet. Not sure about the credibility of this view but I guess it is in an interesting take on Oswalt and not one that I had considered.

 

Lou's take was that Oswalt would not want to come here which is the same thing as saying he may truly not want to come under any reasonable circumstances or that he will make us pay something of a surcharge to come here.

 

Merloni's point was that Oswalt would not want to come to the AL East on a one year deal because the risk would be far greater that he gets tagged and slapped silly making it harder for him to cut a longer term deal somewhere in 2013. Merloni thinks Oswalt will stay somewhere in the NL for this one year and avoid the risk. He is comfy there. He likes it there and the chances are better that he have a decent year setting himself up for a multiyear deal with somebody in 2013.

 

Not sure what anybody here thinks of that. Not even sure what I think of it other than to say it is different.

 

Interesting and makes sense. Hell, If STL pays me likely the same why the hell will I go to the ALE? Where would you go if that were the scenario? STL or BOS?

[example1]

Seems stupid to limit his options for that extension the following year too, but I wouldn't be shocked if Oswalt was hesitant to come get his ass kicked in the ALE. I usually like Merloni though and think his analysis is usually pretty strong.

[win red sox]

trading Youkilis would be a catastrophic mistake, would you feel good about a lineup like this-

 

Ellsbury

Crawford

Gonzales

Pedroia

Ortiz

Mcdonald/Sweeney

Salty/Shoppach

Aviles/Punto

Scutaro

 

The offense struggled the last month of 2011 due to Youkilis injuries, without him there would be no power threat from the rt side and we would see nothing but left handers coming out of the bullpen. I assume the Fo is smarter than anybody on this board and exploring every option out there. Have faith.