2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jung]

When Lackey was signed, there was a claus in his contract that related to the problems he was experiencing with swelling in his elbow. Apparently whatever wear there was at that time was not substantive enough to keep Lackey from passing his physical but significant enough for the Sox to insert a clause in his contract. The clause was I guess meaningless in the overall because it did not result in anything practical from the perspective of protecting the Sox. The point is that Lackey's arm was already showing signs of duress when they signed him. They signed him anyway and did not even get a reduction in the price for the elbow issue. We know the rest of the story.

[a700hitter]

Right now, I don't have the June, 2011 scenario clearly, but I could bet that the improvement could have been better than Bedard. The true and the point here is that they could have planned better. Sorry Pal, Injuries are not excuses.

 

BTW You and I know that we needed this goddamn pitcher since before the 2011 trade deadline, we both said this tons of times. Today, that need haven't been addressed. Instead they used the money in signing Ortiz. Yes, this offseason hasn't ended but If we go like this, IMO this team will be unbalanced again. If we go like this, Our FO would have likely shitted the bed again. They could have used Ortiz Money in Kuroda, and put Lav as DH or something. Yes, we would have lost a big bat but IMO still our offense would have been a respectable one, maybe no the #1 but a respectable one.

 

Notice that I'm not against Ortiz but we have other priorities (SP, BP arms), mostly if we do not go over the cap.

iortiz, as usual, I am in full agreement. Our starting pitching is 3 deep. Saying that we lack depth would be an understatement. We only have 3 legitimate major league starters. Period. If one of them gets injured, it would be disastrous, but whining about it would not be justified. The problem is staring everyone in the face. Ben need to do something about it. Carlos Silva is not the answer unless the problem is that you need someone to take home the left overs from the after game spread.

[FredLynn]

One of us must be misunderstanding the other. I'm not saying the collapse in 2011 was due to injuries. I just hate the argument that a poor performance can never be blamed on injuries. It absolutely could... like in the scenario that I laid out with two top pitchers and two top offensive players going down. 2011 was due to other factors.

 

Similarily, if the acquisition of a player who adds 6-8 wins can account for a team going from no playoffs to playoffs, then likewise the loss of a player who adds 6-8 wins can account for not making the playoffs. I think adding a pitcher like Buchholz for a full season makes them better because his production is not easily replaced.

 

I can live with "almost never". Two years ago came close. The number of injuries we had to key players was excessive. It happens sometimes. My arguement is that too many people like to play the injury card too often when there were opportunities to take corrective action that were not utilized. If we had obtained both Harden and Bedard last year chances are we would have at least made the playoffs.

[FredLynn]

iortiz' date=' as usual, I am in full agreement. Our starting pitching is 3 deep. Saying that we lack depth would be an understatement. We only have 3 legitimate major league starters. Period. If one of them gets injured, it would be disastrous, but whining about it would not be justified. The problem is staring everyone in the face. Ben need to do something about it. Carlos Silva is not the answer unless the problem is that you need someone to take home the left overs from the after game spread.[/quote']

 

Don't you think that we can almost COUNT on one of those three missing some time? Players get injured, especially pitchers. The chances are great that one of our three legitimate SP will suffer an injury of some sort this year.

[a700hitter]

I can live with "almost never". Two years ago came close. The number of injuries we had to key players was excessive. It happens sometimes. My arguement is that too many people like to play the injury card too often when there were opportunities to take corrective action that were not utilized. If we had obtained both Harden and Bedard last year chances are we would have at least made the playoffs.

There can be no injury excuses in 2012 unless the team charter plane crashes. We have no pitching depth. Everyone knows it. Some kind of injury, minor or major will happen. With the lack of depth on our staff, a couple of minor injuries causing a couple of the guys to miss 3-4 starts each could be very devastating. Ben needs to get something done and his options are dwindling.

[a700hitter]

Don't you think that we can almost COUNT on one of those three missing some time? Players get injured' date=' especially pitchers. The chances are great that one of our three legitimate SP will suffer an injury of some sort this year.[/quote']It's a virtual certainty. Even a minor injury or two can be devastating to the staff. If a couple of these guys each miss 3-4 starts, it would be a very bad thing.

[FredLynn]

There can be no injury excuses in 2012 unless the team charter plane crashes. We have no pitching depth. Everyone knows it. Some kind of injury' date=' minor or major will happen. With the lack of depth on our staff, a couple of minor injuries causing a couple of the guys to miss 3-4 starts each could be very devastating. Ben needs to get something done and his options are dwindling.[/quote']

 

700, Ben can do NOTHING without the approval of the owners to release the money. I think Henry and his group are the hangup, not Cherington.

[a700hitter]

700' date=' Ben can do NOTHING without the approval of the owners to release the money. I think Henry and his group are the hangup, not Cherington.[/quote']As a good GM, he needs to convince them of he teams situation. The state of affairs for the pitching is not good. That's the case he has to make. If he tells them that they could be improved if Bard does the job and Doubront breaks out, and it doesn't happen and the pitching falls on its face, Ben will take the heat from the owners.

[FredLynn]

As a good GM' date=' he needs to convince them of he teams situation. The state of affairs for the pitching is not good. That's the case he has to make. If he tells them that they could be improved if Bard does the job and Doubront breaks out, and it doesn't happen and the pitching falls on its face, Ben will take the heat from the owners.[/quote']

 

Could be that he has tried. I can't believe the owners don't understand the need for another pitcher. They are not fools. I think they have looked at this situation and realize that there is simply not enough money to fix the team this year, and I think thats a good business decision. I don't like to see this happening, but I do think its necessary this year. I think Henry has decided that the team sinks or swims with who they have right now. And for once, I agree with him.

[jung]

I don't think LL and JH put BC in that position to "convince" them of anything and it is that dynamic that I think governs their relationships. They have tried to rehabilitate BC for the public after basically treating him like some sort of personnel mechanic. "Here BC, do the paperwork for thus and so." "Here BC, go and figure this out and report back what you find. For God's sake don't do anything. Report back what you find and we will let you know".

[example1]

I can live with "almost never". Two years ago came close. The number of injuries we had to key players was excessive. It happens sometimes. My arguement is that too many people like to play the injury card too often when there were opportunities to take corrective action that were not utilized. If we had obtained both Harden and Bedard last year chances are we would have at least made the playoffs.

 

I just think people need to be specific about the times they use injuries as the reason for underachievement. It's never an excuse. Excuses imply something that isn't valid but is thrown out there anyway. It is a valid reason sometimes, but excuses in general shouldn't be used.

 

I think 2010 is a season where injuries were the reason for significant underachievement. It's a perfectly valid reason.

 

Likewise, if the 2012 team has a pitching staff that stays healthy and leads the league in ERA and runs against, but they lose 5 starters on offense, then offensive injuries could be the reason they don't achieve as much as we would like.

[Meh]

700' date=' Ben can do NOTHING without the approval of the owners to release the money. I think Henry and his group are the hangup, not Cherington.[/quote']

 

Theres more to being a GM then throwing money wildly at people. Yankee and Red Sox fans need to learn that. You can't just go out and sign Oswalt for 10 million and sleep good at night. Your payroll is around 182 million... Look at Cashman he waited it out and got Kuroda for less than what he wanted. It would be nice(for Red Sox fans) if they signed Oswalt for a one year 9 million deal, but it would be even sweeter if you waited and got him for a one year 7 million deal in Feb.

 

 

You shouldn't be too worried about SP right now, you should leave no stone unturned trying to get a RF though.

[italstallianion]

Theres more to being a GM then throwing money wildly at people. Yankee and Red Sox fans need to learn that. You can't just go out and sign Oswalt for 10 million and sleep good at night. Your payroll is around 182 million... Look at Cashman he waited it out and got Kuroda for less than what he wanted. It would be nice(for Red Sox fans) if they signed Oswalt for a one year 9 million deal, but it would be even sweeter if you waited and got him for a one year 7 million deal in Feb.

 

 

You shouldn't be too worried about SP right now, you should leave no stone unturned trying to get a RF though.

 

 

I'd rather sign Oswalt for the $8 million now then to play the waiting game to try and get him for less and have him sign somewhere else and end up with Vicente Padilla and the many of AAAA starters we have getting playing time. At some point it's just money and I don't think that $1-$2 million is worth risking not signing Oswalt and having to give Padilla/Cook/Silva and many others playing time.

[DeadHorseSociety]

According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, Vicente Padilla is "getting closer" to an agreement with the Red Sox.

The Diamondbacks were linked to Padilla on Friday afternoon, which may have put a spark in Boston's negotiating efforts. The 34-year-old right-hander barely pitched in 2011 due to neck surgery, but he still has nasty stuff and could be an effective pitcher for the Red Sox if health is on his side in 2012.

[User Name]

You shouldn't be too worried about SP right now' date=' you should leave no stone unturned trying to get a RF though.[/quote']

 

This makes absolutely no sense.

[iortiz]

As a good GM' date=' he needs to convince them of he teams situation[/b']. The state of affairs for the pitching is not good. That's the case he has to make. If he tells them that they could be improved if Bard does the job and Doubront breaks out, and it doesn't happen and the pitching falls on its face, Ben will take the heat from the owners.

 

This a common practice in businesses beyond the department or industry. Yes, the resources are finite. Do you want more money?, show me a strong business case (ROI/NPV/IRR/Benefits, etc), if strong, you have the money. Every GM makes this when asks more budget. I clearly remember Theo taking accountability for the last mess. Words more, words less, He said that he was the main responsible for the 2011 failure. The rest is history. He walked. If Ben is measured with the same criteria (make the POs and once there make a good paper), He is not in a good position right now.

 

On the other hand, if he is just a puppet as jung suggests, somebody else will take the accountability. I guess LL.

 

Now, If the strategy is win 2013 or 2014, fine, but my question then would be... Why the hell they signed Ortiz? At least give the opportunity to your farm, like letting Lav (at least as DH) play, you don't expect to win the ring anyway.

[Meh]

This makes absolutely no sense.

 

how so? you don't think you can get by with Bard in your rotation? I mean if you start the season with mcdonald and sweeney in RF... damn dude.

[ORS]

This is a reasonable position. Change a few of your reasonable assumptions as to why they might be improved and make an opposite but still reasonable assumption and the analysis ends up somewhere between "about the same" and markedly worse' date=' which is where I believe that Pumpsie and others are on this issue, but they get ridiculed for it. I'm not quite sure why, because their analysis leaves them somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, which is where you are. Don't get me wrong. I am not saying that you are the one heaping ridicule. I am not saying that at all. You are the only person who took the time to try to make the case that the 2012 pitching will be improved and you came out in the middle somewhere leaning toward improvement. When all the blather is boiled away, this staff is about the same as last years. If injuries and unexpected performance occurs it will be markedly worse. If we have good health and some break out performances, it will be markedly better. There's a lot of common ground in the opinion in this thread, but people are too busy bickering.[/quote']

Read pumpsie's posts. He pretty clearly ridicules anyone who is optimistic about the current roster, and he attempts to portray his opinions as irrefutable. What he's getting from the other side has a lot to do with how he posts, IMO.

[jung]

Ortiz was a play that failed. The Sox thought that someone would grab him and the Sox would end up with the draft picks having offered him arbitration. Now they are stuck with him.

 

It was a gamble that failed. My point all along is that they had to be out of their minds to have thought somebody was going to pick Ortiz up out of arbitration thus giving up picks to the Sox. When the chance of reward is 0 the risk is infinite and that was the problem with that gamble. It was never going to pay off.

[win red sox]

with 40-50 million coming off the books next year, it doesn't make sense not go over the luxury tax this year to improve your chance of winning. The tax should be reset next year, and if Bard has a solid year the starting rotation would already be filled out for 2013. If everything works out with improvement from our minors, you could look at roster something like this.

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Bard

Lackey

 

Bailey

Melancon

Aceves

Wilson

Doubrant

Albers

Miller

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Gonzales

Youkilis/Lavernaway

Crawford

Middlebrooks

Kalish

Salty/Laveraway

Iglesias

 

the payroll on this roster would be about 145-150 million, the point is that there were will be plenty of flexibility in 2013.

[User Name]

how so? you don't think you can get by with Bard in your rotation? I mean if you start the season with mcdonald and sweeney in RF... damn dude.

 

Kalish will be back sooner rather than later. The Red Sox had the best offense in the Majors last year while getting nothing from the OF corners and little from 3B. Banking on improvement from Crawford and better health from Youk makes RF a luxury instead of a necessity. Not to mention that the Sweeney/McD combo may outperform what we got from RF last year overall.

 

Finding a #4 starter is much more important, because of the need for starting pitching depth and since the Sox didn't do that well in most pitching categories last year, finding a guy that will allow Bard or Aceves to go back to the bullpen while strengthening the rotation is much more important and, an actual need.

[FredLynn]

Read pumpsie's posts. He pretty clearly ridicules anyone who is optimistic about the current roster' date=' and he attempts to portray his opinions as irrefutable. What he's getting from the other side has a lot to do with how he posts, IMO.[/quote']

 

I got my opinion; you got yours. I think mine is right; you think yours is right.

Deal with it.

[User Name]

That's not the point at all. The point is (and you've been told this several times by several different people) that you like to present your opinion as irrefutable fact.

[ORS]

Right now' date=' I don't have the June, 2011 scenario clearly, but I could bet that the improvement could have been better than Bedard. The true and the point here is that they could have planned better. Sorry Pal, Injuries are not excuses. [/quote']

Planned better how? They had what looked like better depth going into last year than they do going into this one. Unfortunately, everything went wrong for them with every pitcher other than Lester/Beckett. Yes, they could have upgraded with someone better than Bedard, but at what cost? Clearly, it was an acquisition cost they were unwilling to pay, which is a value issue. And, without knowing the actual players in question, I can't criticize their valuations here.

 

Sometimes a decent plan falls through because of bad circumstances. That's life, that happens.....in baseball, that's what injuries do.

[jung]

I don't think the Sox could have planned for the number of injuries they had to the pitching staff, not from where they were at that point. They could have hung on to their better pitching prospects as opposed to using them in trades and that could have provided a means to deal with some of the pitching injuries. However "could have" is not would have and there is no telling what would have actually happened.

 

More likely at least from where they were, Theo was right. He should have done something quickly to shore up the pitching once guys starting going down. He didn't.

 

I am more inclined to wonder what Theo would have done anyway. Sox really did not have much to offer in trade at that point. So I am not even sure Theo could have pulled something off even if he tried. Buy somebody for cash I guess??

[User Name]

And there's the problem. Who would have been available for just cash that was decidedly better than Bedard?

[Elktonnick]

And there's the problem. Who would have been available for just cash that was decidedly better than Bedard?

 

While I understood the Bedard move at the time., I recall Baltimore analyst Jim Palmer ridiculed it. Bedard is the classic example of the player who is incapable of playing for a contender. He is afraid. That was Palmer's point. He was right.

[iortiz]

Planned better how? They had what looked like better depth going into last year than they do going into this one. Unfortunately, everything went wrong for them with every pitcher other than Lester/Beckett. Yes, they could have upgraded with someone better than Bedard, but at what cost? Clearly, it was an acquisition cost they were unwilling to pay, which is a value issue. And, without knowing the actual players in question, I can't criticize their valuations here.

 

Sometimes a decent plan falls through because of bad circumstances. That's life, that happens.....in baseball, that's what injuries do.

 

All this was based on Lackey was injured in June, to the point that he needed TJ surgery. Said that, and if true and if they knew that Lackey was injured (as Gammon suggested) and let him play (what ended happening), no excuses, they should consider another SP. Bedard was not enough, regardless everybody knew that he was prone to injuries. Hell, you already had injury-concerns and you brought another prone to injuries? Sorry, but It doesn't make sense to me. But beyond that (which was illogical to me -Bedard move-), they should bring another SP. As I said, I do not have clear the options/business environment of that June 2011. You could argue that out there were any. We will never know with certainty. I clearly remember that Pence could be an option for us before the 2011 trade deadline (surly we didn't have the pieces, IDK), but some around here went to my throat and told me "Pence will never ever be traded by Los Astros". He was traded to Philly. My point is, out there are always possibilities, is it going to be easy (like bring another SP), nobody said that, but GMs have to figure it out. It is part of his job.

 

If you want to excuse the FO, it's up to you. Injuries are part of the game and you have to deal with them and consider them in your business/sportive plan (better physical conditioning/, depth, assertive FA signings, farm development, etc.) No excuses.

[seabeachfred]

Write the damn check already' date=' Ben!!!![/quote']

 

It's beyond belief 700. It is so obvious we need a solid starting pitcher and they are falling off the FA tree faster than a fox into a chicken coop and still Babbling Ben can't seem to do anything but try to walk and chew gum at the same time. Sure, the chances are good that he has been given his marching orders to hold down spending, but sometimes you have to take that flying leap and now is that time. Oswalt is available but he won't be for long. Oh, why the hell do I even waste my breath. Cheringpuke is a namby-pamby gutless wonder who hasn't the guts to demand of his boss that he open his wallet and help make the team he is supposed to direct from the front office a winner. What a turd!!!!

[italstallianion]

how so? you don't think you can get by with Bard in your rotation? I mean if you start the season with mcdonald and sweeney in RF... damn dude.

 

 

I'd rather have an RF of Sweeney/Kalish/McDonald/Aviles platoon than to have a 4/5 of Bard/Aceves with Dice-K/Silva/Padilla/Cook/Germano/Doubront on stand by.

 

If I could only make one more move I'd rather have Oswalt than someone like Cody Ross. (I want a RHH RF like Cody Ross a lot, but I think we need an SP more than anything else)