2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

On a one-year, $8MM contract, Roy Oswalt could be "the biggest bargain of the winter," opines Fangraphs' Dave Cameron.

Write the damn check already, Ben!!!!

[ORS]

In light of your analysis, I'll ask you the same question that I asked E1. Do you see a high likelihood that the current pitchers will markedly outperform 2011, perform about the same as 2011, or markedly under perform 2011. Which do you view as the likely outcome?

 

I'm not a fortune teller. It's hard enough getting a confidence level about what Beckett will do in any given year, and he's one of the non-question marks. Forget about reading the tea leaves for twelve different pitchers. Pitcher performance is one of the most variable things in sports. There are legitimate concerns for why they might be worse. There are also compelling arguments for why they might be better. There are some who think that they will be worse (or at least unchanged) and it's not a matter for debate. I disagree.

 

When it comes to what will happen in any given year, baseball has taught me to expect nothing and just enjoy the ride.

 

All that said, gun to my head, I think the answer lies somewhere in between markedly better and about the same.

[iortiz]

Neither did David Ortiz.....Boston seemed to find a place for him.

 

Hes a DH, and there is nothing wrong with that if he produces.

 

I hate the "he has no position" argument. A position does exist for guys in baseball if they can hit as long as its the AL. Edgar Martinez had a HOF career, and he also had no position.

 

IMO the DHs will need to be more versatile in the near future. DHs like Ortiz IMO are in extinction. I prefer a DH who can field as well. I prefer a .270 DH than a .300 DH who can't field at all. Hell, I hated last interleague games, didn't you?

[iortiz]

I'm not a fortune teller. It's hard enough getting a confidence level about what Beckett will do in any given year, and he's one of the non-question marks. Forget about reading the tea leaves for twelve different pitchers. Pitcher performance is one of the most variable things in sports. There are legitimate concerns for why they might be worse. There are also compelling arguments for why they might be better. There are some who think that they will be worse (or at least unchanged) and it's not a matter for debate. I disagree.

 

When it comes to what will happen in any given year, baseball has taught me to expect nothing and just enjoy the ride.

 

All that said, gun to my head, I think the answer lies somewhere in between markedly better and about the same.

 

IMO the range is wider. From markedly worse to markedly better. Is a whole mystery to me. Out there are a lot of question marks and "ifs". Of course, if we go like this.

[iortiz]

Write the damn check already' date=' Ben!!!![/quote']

 

Does anybody know what is his current healthy condition?

[RedSoxNC84]

So the Yankees got Kuroda AND Pineda.. I think I'm going to be sick..

 

However I did say I thought the Sox were waiting the Yankees out to see who they sign, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move on Oswalt now.

[jung]

Those that are saying both the Mariners and Yanks filled holes are correct. It does not matter what the Yanks gave up they got value for value and they traded young for young. They needed pitching now and they got it.

 

One of the biggest things Montero has going for him is that he is a catcher and that is a big plus for him over a Kalish even if Kalish were healthy. That still does not change that fact that this was a good move for both teams. The point is, Kalish would not have drawn back from the Mariners what Montero did.

 

Lavarnway would not have drawn back from the Mariners what Montero did either.

 

In one day the Yankees outstripped the entire Sox offseason mainly because the Sox have made only one good move....Bailey surrounded by a bunch of meaningless ******** and outright blunders.

 

As for musing that there was nothing wrong with giving Tek an invite to spring training....how does that bit of frivolity look in light of the rest of the days events? Are we happy that they wasted even a minute thinking about that ********?

 

Frankly I have thought for a long time now that you don't clean up the mess this team was in at the end of 2011 in one offseason so I can deal with not fielding a fully competitive team next year. But this has gotten kinda' ridiculous. They are blundering away the offseason and fiddling with ******** like inviting Tek to spring training while the Yanks fill the holes they have. We are going backwards folks. Everything is relative and when you compare the 2011 Red Sox with what they had to compete with last year and what this team is shaping up to be this year with what they will have to compete with, they are going backwards. In fact they are going backwards so fast that I no longer know if this mess gets turned around by 2013, never mind 2012.

 

I don't expect the Sox to compete dollar for dollar with the Yanks. However I also do not expect them to act frivolously in the face of sustained competitive efforts and to make outright blunders in the face of sustained competitive efforts. They can afford neither if the intent is to win sometime in the near future. Sure the joint will still be full of pink hats and corporate fannies stuffed into the company season seats but winning will be a different story. Sweet Carline has become a metaphor for the entire miserable mess as far as I am concerned. Stop the ******** and bring back "Take me out to the f***in' ballgame". Sweet Caroline...what a bunch of ********.

[User Name]

I am at a loss for words at Red Sox fans saying that the Yankees didn't just massively improve their rotation. That is the epitome of bias.

 

I also find the criticism of Cherington to be highly misguided and knee-jerk. The armchair GM's sure have it easy from the comfort of their couches.

[RedSoxNC84]

I am at a loss for words at Red Sox fans saying that the Yankees didn't just massively improve their rotation. That is the epitome of bias.

 

I also find the criticism of Cherington to be highly misguided and knee-jerk. The armchair GM's sure have it easy from the comfort of their couches.

 

+1

[a700hitter]

Even after the defection of Papelbon, the Red Sox were positioned such that a few acquisition (nothing too splashy) would reassert the Sox as a dominant force in the AL. Via a trade, we replaced our closer with a pitcher with great stuff but questionable health. We also added a late inning reliever in Melancon. We are one solid starting pitcher away from materially improving our pitching over the 2011 version. We are still waiting. Today, the Yankees solidified their status as a dominant team. They went from having a staff with an ace, an emerging ace in Nova and several question marks to a staff that is 7 Starters deep at the major league level with the killer Bees waiting in the wings. Benny Boy just got a lesson from Cashman. Hopefully, he is a fast learner and responds appropriately.

[RedSoxNC84]

I'm willing to bet something will happen before the weekend is over.

[Bellhorn04]

Write the damn check already' date=' Ben!!!![/quote']

 

I totally agree they have to sign Oswalt now. The owners just have to say, here's the money, Ben. I guess it would actually be 8 million + 40% tax = around 11 million.

[Palodios]

Write the damn check already' date=' Ben!!!![/quote']

 

Write the damn check already, Ben.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am at a loss for words at Red Sox fans saying that the Yankees didn't just massively improve their rotation. That is the epitome of bias.

 

I also find the criticism of Cherington to be highly misguided and knee-jerk. The armchair GM's sure have it easy from the comfort of their couches.

 

Please explain how, for the 2012 season, Pineda is an upgrade over the 2011 Colon.

 

Colon: 3.38 K/BB, 111 ERA+, 1.290 WHIP. All while playing in the AL East.

Pineda: 3.15 K/BB, 103 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP. All while playing at Safeco.

 

Pineda's WHIP is going to increase when he plays in a bandbox in every home and away game.

 

He's not an improvement in 2012.

[Muggah]

I'm not a fortune teller. It's hard enough getting a confidence level about what Beckett will do in any given year, and he's one of the non-question marks. Forget about reading the tea leaves for twelve different pitchers. Pitcher performance is one of the most variable things in sports. There are legitimate concerns for why they might be worse. There are also compelling arguments for why they might be better. There are some who think that they will be worse (or at least unchanged) and it's not a matter for debate. I disagree.

 

When it comes to what will happen in any given year, baseball has taught me to expect nothing and just enjoy the ride.

 

All that said, gun to my head, I think the answer lies somewhere in between markedly better and about the same.

 

Are you sure about that? If you look at Beckett's career #s there's a definitive pattern that cannot be ignored. Dating back to 2005, Josh's season following a season in which he's had an ERA in the mid 3.00s or better, he's tanked badly the following year--posting an ERA above 4.00, even into the 5.00 range. Last year he finished with a 2.86.

 

There's nothing (other than wishful thinking, of course) in his history that indicates he will break from this disturbing pattern. Add to this the fact that he's going to be wearing a bulls-eye on his back the entire season for being an arrogant punk and I'd say we've got more of a recipe for disaster than we do a climate for him putting up similar numbers to last year when he was going well.

[Muggah]

I totally agree they have to sign Oswalt now. The owners just have to say' date=' here's the money, Ben. I guess it would actually be 8 million + 40% tax = around 11 million.[/quote']

 

That sounds logical, but will it happen? I don't think so. Not this year.

[Muggah]

That' date=' my friend, is ********. Using injuries as an excuse is ALWAYS ********. You should know better.[/quote']

 

Where do these people come up with this stuff?

[SoxSport]

I think the Yankees stole Pineda. That also seems to be the view reported from some observers around the AL. The Mariners bought the Montero buildup. The kid is a small step ahead of Lavarnway--61 at bats last year, and the Yankees just stole one of the top young pitchers in baseball for him. He will win 15 games easily for NY next year. James had him projected for 11 wins and a 3.07 ERA pitching in Seattle.

Montero is projected as a DH. Even if the kid hits, he isn't much of a position player, while Pineda could be an ace.

 

We also hear the Yankees were willing to offer the farm for Felix. And the Red Sox were in it, too, as they should be.

 

That shows how dumb the Mariners are as an organization. They could have gotten the 3 or 4 top Yankee prospects, including Montero and those two top pitching prospects, for Felix. Instead, they gave up a guy who is protected and could be better than Felix in 2 years--for just Montero. Maybe they'll take Varitek back for League.

[Palodios]

Are you sure about that? If you look at Beckett's career #s there's a definitive pattern that cannot be ignored. Dating back to 2005, Josh's season following a season in which he's had an ERA in the mid 3.00s or better, he's tanked badly the following year--posting an ERA above 4.00, even into the 5.00 range. Last year he finished with a 2.86.

 

There's nothing (other than wishful thinking, of course) in his history that indicates he will break from this disturbing pattern. Add to this the fact that he's going to be wearing a bulls-eye on his back the entire season for being an arrogant punk and I'd say we've got more of a recipe for disaster than we do a climate for him putting up similar numbers to last year when he was going well.

 

We've discussed this pattern many times on here, and it scares me as well. But some have mentioned that part of that may be more about arrogance, pride, and preparation. Look at how things have gone for him...

He has a good season in 2003, is coming off a World Series high and declines a bit in 2004. He has a good year with Florida in 2005, is traded to Boston, and-- like most players-- takes a year to adjust to his new team.

He has a good year with Boston in 2007, declines a bit in 2008 after another World Series high.

In 2009, he has a good year, and falls of the cliff at the end of the year, and it drags into 2010, where he is injured.

In 2011, everyone is saying he is done, so he's motivated to have possibly the best year of his career.

 

Personally, I think he's a lazy sack of s*** that takes every other year off. I have disliked him as a player since 2009, but when he is working hard, and he is on, there are very few better pitchers. There is so much pressure on him after he fell apart in 2011 that I believe that he's going to be motivated to succeed in 2012.

[example1]

I wouldn't project Pineda to be better than Felix in two years. That's a really high projection to make in the same post where you are ripping Monteros ceiling.

[SoxSport]

That sounds logical' date=' but will it happen? I don't think so. Not this year.[/quote']

 

 

Yeah. I think it will happen unless Texas flunks out on Darvish and grabs him. They better hurry up and sign Oswalt before Wed. $8mil for one year is a good risk for Oswalt, who can pitch when his back is OK--as it was the last two months of the season.

[SoxSport]

I wouldn't project Pineda to be better than Felix in two years. That's a really high projection to make in the same post where you are ripping Monteros ceiling.

 

61 at bats against a whole season as a starter? Please tell me you are not a Yankee troll.

[example1]

Where do these people come up with this stuff?

 

I looked at reality and pulled it from there. Some players on some teams are just irreplaceable. You guys like to pretend the world of players is infinitely deep and that budgets don't exist. Injuries aren't an excuse, they are a cause. In every sport if enough good players are lost from a team they won't win. If the pats lose Brady they aren't a SB caliber team compared to teams who don't lose their best players. If Beckett and Buchholz and Pedroia and Ellsbury all go down then I won't be as optistic. Neither will the Vegas odds makers.

[example1]

61 at bats against a whole season as a starter? Please tell me you are not a Yankee troll.

 

The guy has been compared to Miguel Cabrera. 61 ABs isn't the only data that exists for the kid.

[Elktonnick]

Tony Mazz made an excellent point about what is most disturbing about this whole mess. In the past the Red Sox were more than willing to sign a pitcher to a one year deal. Now no! Why not! One year deals have very little impact on the lux tax issue next year when it really bites.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Tony Mazz made an excellent point about what is most disturbing about this whole mess. In the past the Red Sox were more than willing to sign a pitcher to a one year deal. Now no! Why not! One year deals have very little impact on the lux tax issue next year when it really bites.

 

The Sox are extremely determined to get under the LT threshold this year so that the LT calculations reset.

 

Also - @Bellhorn - The entire $7-8mm wouldn't be subject to LT. Only the amount over the LT threshold is subject. So if we sign Oswalt to 1/7.5mm and that puts us over by $2mm, then he's around an 8.3mm player in total cost.

[Elktonnick]

The Sox are extremely determined to get under the LT threshold this year so that the LT calculations reset.

 

Also - @Bellhorn - The entire $7-8mm wouldn't be subject to LT. Only the amount over the LT threshold is subject. So if we sign Oswalt to 1/7.5mm and that puts us over by $2mm, then he's around an 8.3mm player in total cost.

 

From what I read that translates into only 400k in lux tax. The real problem is next year.

[ORS]

Are you sure about that? If you look at Beckett's career #s there's a definitive pattern that cannot be ignored. Dating back to 2005, Josh's season following a season in which he's had an ERA in the mid 3.00s or better, he's tanked badly the following year--posting an ERA above 4.00, even into the 5.00 range. Last year he finished with a 2.86.

 

There's nothing (other than wishful thinking, of course) in his history that indicates he will break from this disturbing pattern. Add to this the fact that he's going to be wearing a bulls-eye on his back the entire season for being an arrogant punk and I'd say we've got more of a recipe for disaster than we do a climate for him putting up similar numbers to last year when he was going well.

I thought my comment was pretty clear. I acknowledge Beckett's roller coaster performance, and use it to prove my point. If nobody can be very sure about what Beckett will do this year, and Beckett isn't even in the conversation when it comes to breaking down 2011 vs expectations for 2012, then how can anyone be very sure of what the entire staff will do in 2012?

 

I did not mean to suggest that a good season from Beckett was etched in stone.

 

As to the disturbing "pattern", why is it only wishful thinking to suggest the pattern gets broken? In essence, that question ultimately begs another, what do you think the source of that pattern is? The most plausible one I can come up with is what Palodios posted. Alternating between motivated, to prove himself after a bad year, and complacent, after a good year. I don't think it's wishful thinking to suggest he's motivated after getting shamed at the end of last season. Unless, do you think the source is something mystical, and they need the services of a shaman?

[ORS]

Even after the defection of Papelbon' date=' the Red Sox were positioned such that a few acquisition (nothing too splashy) would reassert the Sox as a dominant force in the AL. Via a trade, we replaced our closer with a pitcher with great stuff but questionable health. We also added a late inning reliever in Melancon. We are one solid starting pitcher away from materially improving our pitching over the 2011 version. We are still waiting. Today, the Yankees solidified their status as a dominant team. They went from having a staff with an ace, an emerging ace in Nova and several question marks to a staff that is 7 Starters deep at the major league level with the killer Bees waiting in the wings. Benny Boy just got a lesson from Cashman. Hopefully, he is a fast learner and responds appropriately.[/quote']

An emerging ace in Nova? Man, do you lay it on thick when you get your rant on.

[FredLynn]

I am at a loss for words at Red Sox fans saying that the Yankees didn't just massively improve their rotation. That is the epitome of bias.

 

I also find the criticism of Cherington to be highly misguided and knee-jerk. The armchair GM's sure have it easy from the comfort of their couches.

 

For once I agree with you. The Yankees did just vastly improve their SP, most likely (ie as long as Pineda is as good as advertised). Moreover, this is not Cherington's fault. If the owners have not given him the go-ahead to spend money, then he has no money to spend. What do you guys think he ought to do? Dip into his personal savings to write Oswalt a check? If anyone is to "blame", its our billionaire owners. And frankly, I am not sure I would even blame them. This is a year to step back, rebuild our resources, and exercise financial restraint. We sacrifice this year so that we can compete over the next several years. The only competing we will be doing this year is for third place.