2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

There are other closers, but you know what you have in Paps. And in this market, Paps will get a 3 yr deal at big money. If the sox dont pony up, they leave a humongous void in their pen that will not be easy to replace

[SoxSport]

I'm afraid it is true. As I said' date=' somehow Pap has the FO by the balls. Who is better than him in the 2012 market?[/quote']

 

I don't think the Red Sox value any closer enough(forget about Rivera--that was a fantasy) to pay what Pap wants. Besides, they have Bard, the logical next closer, on the cheap. It's hard to see him go another year as setup.

 

There will be several closers on the market. Madsen, for one, though he's a Boras client.

My guess is they stay in house with Bard.

[Elktonnick]

I'm afraid it is true. As I said' date=' somehow Pap has the FO by the balls. Who is better than him in the 2012 market?[/quote']

Bard has the talent to close but I doubt the temperment. Depending on who they get as pitching coach, I think they make consider Bard as as starter.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think the Red Sox value any closer enough(forget about Rivera--that was a fantasy) to pay what Pap wants. Besides, they have Bard, the logical next closer, on the cheap. It's hard to see him go another year as setup.

 

There will be several closers on the market. Madsen, for one, though he's a Boras client.

My guess is they stay in house with Bard.

 

I hope beyond hope that you are right. I also hope they sign no one on the market and go completely in house with the pen. That would be absolutely awesome and a best case scenario for me

[jung]

I think most of us are a little paranoid about giving up guys that are proven performers in a year like the one that we have just had and that goes for me as well. But honestly I really don't think at the end of the day Bard pitched badly enough to justify deviating from the plan. Again I am accusing myself of being a little jittery but boy there are some things we can do with that money. In truth if he was not going FA he would certainly be somebody we would consider as a candidate for a trade deal. There is no doubt in my mind that we would be entertaining offers and may have even shopped him.

 

I would think the Cubbies would go ga-ga over Paps so I think somebody is going to toss some real money at him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Theo and Billy Beane are in the same ballpark in terms of value, and I highly doubt the Cubs make any move for any closer

[seabeachfred]

The same guy who died in September? Bard hasnt proven he can close in Boston and he died in September. If Cherington allows Paps to walk and hands the job over to Bard' date=' that would be a humongously ballsy move. Seeing as it would be a tremendous risk[/quote']

[/i]

 

If they allowed Papelbon to walk and hand the closer's job to Bard IT WOULD BE A STUPID MOVE.. Bard lost nine games for the Red Sox this year and simply it means that nine times he was entrusted with either a tie or a lead and he blew it. He is not ready to be the closer. If it comes between Papelbon and Ortiz as to who to sign and who to let walk I believe we could adjust to the loss of Ortiz but not the loss of Paps. Our bullpen needs to be improved and not denuded of one of the few relievers we had that did the job.

 

Again, though, that is only my opinion.

[Elktonnick]

[/i]

 

If they allowed Papelbon to walk and hand the closer's job to Bard IT WOULD BE A STUPID MOVE.. Bard lost nine games for the Red Sox this year and simply it means that nine times he was entrusted with either a tie or a lead and he blew it. He is not ready to be the closer. If it comes between Papelbon and Ortiz as to who to sign and who to let walk I believe we could adjust to the loss of Ortiz but not the loss of Paps. Our bullpen needs to be improved and not denuded of one of the few relievers we had that did the job.

 

Again, though, that is only my opinion.

 

From Bard's body language when in a closer's role, I've gotten the idea he really isn't comfortable closing.

[SCM33]

Phillies declined options on Oswalt and Lidge.

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/24/phillies-decline-2012-options-on-roy-oswalt-and-brad-lidge/related/

 

Both guys are injury risks. Good moves by Phils, who are looking to cut salary to sign Rollins, maybe. Madsen would be a nice pickup, but isn't he a Boras client? If so, he'll be overvalued.

 

The Sox are sitting pretty with Bard as a cheap closer. They can unload Pap, who had a nice year, and get the two draft picks.

 

Sox should kick the tires on both guys. Oswalt is better than arguably 3 outta 5 starters next year, especially if Beckett and Lackey are out of the mix (traded).

 

Lidge should be brought in and asked if he has any interest being a setup guy.

 

Bard should not (and I cant friggin believe people still think he can do it) ever be given a shot to close. He is not a closer. He is a setup guy and his home/road splits are insane. Hes unhittable at home in front of the home crowd. Hes merely average to below average on the road. A closer needs to be a closer all the time, not 50% of the time.

[commenter]

I don't think the Red Sox value any closer enough(forget about Rivera--that was a fantasy) to pay what Pap wants. Besides, they have Bard, the logical next closer, on the cheap. It's hard to see him go another year as setup.

 

There will be several closers on the market. Madsen, for one, though he's a Boras client.

My guess is they stay in house with Bard.

 

Ahaha, they are not going to stay in house with Bard. He lost 9 games setting up & doesn't have the balls or mental make up to close right now. Maybe he will in a few years, but right now? Nope. Not even close. If you want to win right now, you can't have a closer like that especially for the post season.

 

And Papelbon is the best option out there.

 

Madson's been closing for one year. In the NL East where he gets to pitch against the Braves, who's offense sucks.

 

Bell is 3 years older than Papelbon, he doesn't strike out people a lot & he walks a ton of people. That & his home & away splits show that he needs Petco to pitch well. Plus he's out of shape. He pitched badly against the Yankees, Jays & Orioles.

 

K-Rod has attitude issues & this team doesn't need anymore players like that.

 

With Papelbon, you know what you're getting. You know he can handle the AL East. You know he can handle pitching in Fenway. You know he can handle the Yankees. You know he can pitch in the post season. You know he can handle the media & Boston. Oh yeah, he was apparently one of the 3 guys who worked hard all year.

 

No need for another Bobby Jenks or Eric Gagne. They know what they have with Papelbon.

[jung]

I thought the Cubs were really left hard up for a closer at the end of 2011 and wouldn't Paps be mighty convenient under the circumstances. Then again the Cubs do have other problems to solve before getting to a front line closer.

 

Are we willing to sign Paps whatever it takes? I would question the logic of doing that. If we assume Paps will get big closer money from someone I would think is makes more sense after serious FO due diligence to take a shot at Bard. Now if the Sox find there are issues with Bard that even we do not know about at this point then that is a completely different story.

 

Remember Bard suffered from mechanical problems that nobody on the Sox appeared competent enough to help him solve. We have pillared Young continually since the end of the season. That has not been happening because he was a competent pitching coach. He was not only lax but he simply seemed to have no answers for anybody about anything. I wonder what Oakland had him doing that they are happy with.... run the day care center. I would hate to pay big money for Paps when in fact Bard was simply a young pitcher that needed help that nobody could provide.

 

However there is no question that Bard is a risk and whatever the Sox do, just assuming he can be a competent closer is the last of them. They have work to do without question.

[iortiz]

Sox should kick the tires on both guys. Oswalt is better than arguably 3 outta 5 starters next year, especially if Beckett and Lackey are out of the mix (traded).

 

Lidge should be brought in and asked if he has any interest being a setup guy.

 

Bard should not (and I cant friggin believe people still think he can do it) ever be given a shot to close. He is not a closer. He is a setup guy and his home/road splits are insane. Hes unhittable at home in front of the home crowd. Hes merely average to below average on the road. A closer needs to be a closer all the time, not 50% of the time.

 

It's out of doubt Oswald's quality but how bad is this back injury? Does Anyone know his current status? I wouldn't like to see another Buch case(s) around. I wonder why the phillies didn't take the options.

 

About Bard, totally agree, he is not ready. They better sign Papelbon.

[SCM33]

General baseball question for everyone.

 

If a player hits under .240, gets on base at less than a .290 clip (<.290 ob slugs .450 but strikes out almost times and walks under with over plate appearances.....would you want that player in your starting lineup>

[example1]

General baseball question for everyone.

 

If a player hits under .240, gets on base at less than a .290 clip (<.290 ob slugs .450 but strikes out almost times and walks under with over plate appearances.....would you want that player in your starting lineup>

 

Not if he plays an offensive position and his track record indicates a reasonable probability that such numbers will be repeated. If he's a decent catcher or SS I would want to know more about the defense.

[example1]

It's out of doubt Oswald's quality but how bad is this back injury? Does Anyone know his current status? I wouldn't like to see another Buch case(s) around. I wonder why the phillies didn't take the options.

 

About Bard, totally agree, he is not ready. They better sign Papelbon.

 

In starting to get interested in Bard as Alexi Ogando. #5 starter in season and long relief stopper in the playoffs. Teams can get a lot out of an arm like that.

[SCM33]

General baseball question for everyone.

 

If a player hits under .240, gets on base at less than a .290 clip (<.290 ob slugs .450 but strikes out almost times and walks under with over plate appearances.....would you want that player in your starting lineup>

 

Not if he plays an offensive position and his track record indicates a reasonable probability that such numbers will be repeated. If he's a decent catcher or SS I would want to know more about the defense.

 

The player in description is below average, to average defensively.......

[jung]

There is actually one element of risk or I should say value even with Paps. His stats are great. His WHIP is regularly among the best for closers in baseball. However Paps has never been called upon to save many games for the Sox. He pitches in many 9th innings for the Sox but when compared to other top closers he simply never records that many saves. You could argue that he has recorded great stats while not being under much pressure.

 

I am not presenting this data in order to deny Paps his due. I am simply suggesting that the Sox may not need a $15M closer. In fact it would appear to me that from the data, the Sox would have to go through a pretty drastic change in order to truly get the value out of a $15M closer. It would have to be the kind of team that is in tighter games going into the 9th inning. The point is that there is no merit to giving up no runs in the 9th if you are ahead by more than 1 run anyway or if you rarely score in the 9th in games that you are losing.

 

Paps total saves are comparatively low because while always being called on to come in the 9th inning and finish the game, either the Sox are so far ahead that he does not get a save or so far behind that he does not get a save. It has been this way throughout Paps career with the Sox so I don't view this as something that is a one year glitch or something that is going to change anytime soon.

 

If we all agree that at the end of the day it is about wins and losses how much of a contribution can Paps actually make to wins and losses? The Sox rarely come from behind late in games and are rarely ahead and in a tight game by the ninth inning. They are more often than not ahead by several runs in the 9th inning or they are losing and doing very little to come from behind, one or the other.

 

At the same time then Bard or any other closer for that matter may not represent as much of a risk as we perceive simply based on the way the Sox play baseball.

[mvp 78]

Not been under much pressure? He pitches in Boston, not TB. Coming in with a 3 run lead isn't the definition of pressure. Even Bobby Thigpen got 50+ saves one year. It's a fairly meaningless stat.

[jung]

Number of saves is a meaningless stat when trying to understand a pitchers performance level. I am simply suggesting that Paps does not get many save opportunities regardless of how good he is. The number of save opportunities only gives you a number that can be used to value his actual and potential contribution to wins and losses. If we are constantly going into the 9th leading by several or losing and not coming back (in fact it is worse than that, if we go into the 7th losing we don't come back), then $15M for a closer would seem a bit over the top and some additional risk at that position might well be absorbed without much actual impact to wins and losses.

 

Maybe Bard is not ready. Maybe if Paps only gets offered 3 years from teams competing for his services then $15M per year for 3 to drop kick this decision makes sense. To be honest in the face of other issues that are more critical I just don't think the issue of closer for this team is all that big a deal and a long way from the central issues they need to resolve.

 

So for 3 years at 15, sign him if they want, don't sign him if they don't want to. As long as I don't have to hear that we could not address the bigger issues because we spent $15M for a closer on a team for which the game is generally over before the 9th inning, I am OK with it. I am truly torn because 3 good starters and a closer with strong work ethic can at least be a good place from which to move forward. Sad that work ethic becomes a possible rational to keep a guy but welcome to Fenway. I am just as inclined to 3 good starters and a good closer as opposed to one with the second best WHIP for all closers being OK for this team. This team has got to get into a position to be in and possibly win more close games before worrying about who is going to pitch the 9th inning. This is not a 2011 issue by the way. 2010 and 2009 were not much different.

 

Lets take the 2011 team and drop it into the post season. Do you honestly think that the closer would make much of a difference in how far the Sox would have gotten?

[a700hitter]

Red Sox leaning towards picking up SS Scutaro’s option

 

CHICAGO — Locking up the shortstop position could be one of the first and relatively easiest of new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington’s decisions.

 

According to a source familiar with the Red Sox thinking tonight, the ballclub is leaning towards picking up Marco Scutaro’s $6 million option for 2012. Scutaro, who not only finished strong for the Red Sox but also was a steadying veteran influence, would likely be a valuable commodity on the open market. Considering that the Red Sox’ shortstop of the future, Jose Iglesias, is still at least a year away from being considered prime-time material, Scutaro, 35, is a solid choice to keep the seat warm for Iglesias. Jed Lowrie, still under the team’s control, is also an option to play some shortstop, as well as other infield positions.

 

Scutaro hit .299 with a .358 on-base percentage this season. In September, he hit .387 with a .438 on-base percentage.

 

Scutaro made $5 million in each of the last two seasons. He has a $1.5 million buyout clause, as well as a $3 million player option.

[mvp 78]

Signing Scutaro should be the biggest no-brainer of the offseason.

[User Name]

Specially with Iglesias not being ready and Jed Lowrie having JD Drew syndrome.

[mvp 78]

Jung, if the Sox want to be WS contenders, the first place to cut salary isn't the closer. You pay a premium for closing big games in NY, TB, and the playoffs. If the closer has a few less appearances against the bottom of the barrel, who cares... It just means he won't be burnt out in October.

[User Name]

MVP, you are spot-on on this. One of the main reasons the Yankees have been successful for such a long-time is that rock-solid presence in the back of their bullpen in the form of Mariano.

[seabeachfred]

From my own personal experience I would concur with great prejudice that a great back of the bullpen is a necessity for any team with aspirations of winning a title. This season we were 0-6 and I flew to Boston for the Red Sox Home Opening Series, one of the treats I reserve for myself. It was the Yankees and we needed to win that series. We did 2-1 and in each game Papelbon came in the ninth inning to big fanfare from the loudspeakers and proceeded to nail the Yankees one-two-three on both occasions. Please don't anyone try and tell me that we can survive without a great closer and 8th inning set-up man, not to mention a good seventh inning pitcher if we can get one.

 

We only have to turn back to 2003 and Epstein's ridiculous "closer by committee" debacle. Remember that my friends? I can't exactly remember how many games that little plan cost us, but it was over ten by the end of June and it cost us the division and home field advantage in the ALCS. We need a good bullpen led by a solid closer and that is Papelbon.

[jung]

Paps gets the appearances, they just don't often translate to wins and loses because the game is over, won or lost by the time he comes into it. So he gets the work.

 

The Sox as constituted either win big or lose and if they are behind by the 7th inning they categorically lose. They went something like 2-65 in games that they trailed by the 7th. They have become the Sox of the late 50's and early 60's winning 12-8 when they win but losing too often to make the 12-8 wins matter. 2010 and 2009 were hardly better.

 

More important than what it says about the value of Paps to this team, it says they have a snowballs chance in hell of getting anywhere in the post season even if they happen to get there. As indicated earlier it really is not that much of an issue for me one way or the other especially since I guess they are talking about a 3 year deal for Paps. But unless they change the profile of this team in significant ways, who pitches in the 9th inning will continue to be for the most part anti-climactic.

 

That is what is interesting about the limited number of save opportunities:appearances for Paps.....again not saves:appearances but save opportunities:appearances. They say nothing about his quality as a pitcher. They simply say something about his ability to effect the outcome in spite of how good he is.

[iortiz]

I'm not the biggest fan of Scutaro, but who else is better than him cost/numbers in the market?.

[SoxSport]

Best offensive WARS (Fangraph) of the Sox players in 2011:

 

Ellsbury--6.8, Pedey--5.9,AdGon--5.5,Papi--3.8,Youks--3.6, Scutaro--2.6. Crawford--0.3

 

Crawford's OWAR of .3 was horrible for a player of his stature. Ells had close to a superstar year.

Pedey topped AdGon, though AdGon dropped off the 2nd half from shoulder weakness.

Scutaro will be a bargain to pick up his option. Papi is a risk for his age and contract demands.

 

Top Pitcher WARs:

 

Beckett--6.2, Lester--4.8, Aceves--2.9, Buchholz---2.2,Pap--2.0, Bard--1.7.

 

These are the numbers that Cherington will go by. Aceves is a winner. A sure starter next year.

 

All the other Sox WARs were

[mvp 78]

Ortiz can demand whatever he wants, but DH's are making way less money in free agency these days and there aren't many teams in need of his services. He's taking a big time paycut this year. A one year contract for cheap money. He'll be back.

[jung]

Hopefully they will prep Aceves for a starting role in spring training so that he starts the year there. Presuming relievers are still important to this team, and presuming he gets his mechanics straightened out, Bard could continue to be the 8th inning guy. Is Jenks on the DL now for 2012 as well or does anybody know if Jenks will be out of his injury woes by then?