2011-2012 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

1. You should ask a700. He knows who the best players are and was the strongest advocate of signing CC on this site last year. He probably has the answer for why it was smart aside from the numbers.

 

2. I realize you're picking Markakis randomly, but he's not a random player. He's a very good player who is still under Baltimore's control from his initial signing and, as far as I know, was never available to be signed. Seems like a completely random and arbitrary example. Maybe look at another OF who was actually available at the time?

 

 

 

 

Let's use this as an opportunity to use the advanced metrics, shall we?

 

You say "a guy like" Markakis. Okay, following the 2010 season, here are the best RF in the game from 2008-2010:

 

Jayson Werth

Ichiro Suzuki

Chin-Soo Choo

JD Drew

Nick Markakis

 

So aside from not being available, he was also the 5th best RF in baseball leading up to that time. He was the 11th best OF during that time, ahead of guys like Granderson, Tori Hunter, Jason Bay, etc., He's not just some guy.

 

That said, between 2008 and 2010 do you know who the 2nd most valuable OF was?

 

Trust me, I was a huge fan of CC even when he used to play for TB. I don't need to look at stats in order to know that he was the man that I wanted for Boston (As almost any fan like A700 wanted at that point). But again, why bring a 142 M player in order to occupy 6-9 spot? why? As simple fans, maybe we don't care about the money, and still we probably would've brought the guy even occupying the 6th spot, but as a owner? It doesn't make sense. It is a lot of money. That's my point E1.

 

About Markakis sure, maybe he was not the best example, but still believe that he wouldn't cost 142 MUSD, not even close. About his arbitration thing, Pence was in a similar situation just like Nick but the Phillies could make the deal, we? Of course no, we don't have the pieces or something, excuses, excuses, excuses; I almost forget that we can't make those kind deals.

[SoxSport]

Anybody read that "Moneyball" book? About Billy Beane. Reading it right now.

 

The James Bible according to Beane is walks (OBP)are the only important stat for hitters.

It is innate--can't be taught. Patience at the plate. Knowing the strike zone.

You score runs and make fewer outs when everybody walks.

Forget about bunts, stolen bases and the hit-and-run.

Never create outs.

 

That explains a lot of the Red Sox philosophy on the field, as practiced by Francona.

And why other teams "stole" bases almost at will against Red Sox pitchers.

And maybe why the runs were scarce to come by in low scoring games.

 

I don't have a problem with being fussy at the plate, and getting a lot of walks.

In fact, in my playing days, I got a lot of walks and was always the leadoff batter.

That was before Billy Beane was born. And even before Ted Williams started writing about it.

 

But you got to be able to hit those strikes. And hit them good. That's important,too.

Heat strikes, Curve strikes, Change-up strikes, Slider strikes. And hit with some power.

That's where slugging % comes in. OPS is the whole package.

 

It's easier when you know what a "good pitch to hit is." But you got to be able to make contact.

Good contact. So I don't think walks are the whole story--just an important piece.

 

And then there's playing defense...

[Dojji]

walks (OBP)are the only important stat for hitters.

 

I wish people would stop doing that.

 

OBP is not "Walks."

 

It's batting average and walks.

 

What it is saying is that walks are a successful trip to the plate and should be treated as such, thus not counting a walk as an AB (like they do to calcuate AVG) is silly. Give credit for the walk, since it requires skill on the hitter's part. That's what OBP does and AVG does not.

[iortiz]

I wish people would stop doing that.

 

OBP is not "Walks."

 

It's batting average and walks.

 

What it is saying is that walks are a successful trip to the plate and should be treated as such, thus not counting a walk as an AB (like they do to calcuate AVG) is silly. Give credit for the walk, since it requires skill on the hitter's part. That's what OBP does and AVG does not.

 

What weighs more in the OBP stat, hits or walks? what is typically the mix percentage between these events? which event is more difficult to execute?

[Laser Show]

Hey all, long time reader, first time poster.

 

I have an idea. We're short a RF and possibly a DH for 2012. Could we trade Lackey for Soriano straight up? Soriano still provides plenty of pop in the bat and could split time between the RF and DH positions. This would give Kalish or Reddick a chance to grow and develop more by still getting 300 AB's in the majors while not getting burned out. The DH position would be freed up for 70-80 games to give Gonzo, Pedroia, and Youk time to rest.

 

Also, with Crawford being wall-shy out there in Fenway, what do you think of playing Ellsbury in LF and Crawford in CF for home games and vice-versa for away games? Or we could even just move Crawford to spacious RF. If Manny could play LF in Fenway, anyone can.

[a700hitter]

Hey all, long time reader, first time poster.

 

I have an idea. We're short a RF and possibly a DH for 2012. Could we trade Lackey for Soriano straight up? Soriano still provides plenty of pop in the bat and could split time between the RF and DH positions. This would give Kalish or Reddick a chance to grow and develop more by still getting 300 AB's in the majors while not getting burned out. The DH position would be freed up for 70-80 games to give Gonzo, Pedroia, and Youk time to rest.

 

The biggest problem with Soriano is that he is a hack in the field. RF at Fenway maybe one of the toughest fields in baseball. There's no way he can handle it. If he played LF, Crawford would have to move to RF.

[FredLynn]

Hey all, long time reader, first time poster.

 

I have an idea. We're short a RF and possibly a DH for 2012. Could we trade Lackey for Soriano straight up? Soriano still provides plenty of pop in the bat and could split time between the RF and DH positions. This would give Kalish or Reddick a chance to grow and develop more by still getting 300 AB's in the majors while not getting burned out. The DH position would be freed up for 70-80 games to give Gonzo, Pedroia, and Youk time to rest.

 

Also, with Crawford being wall-shy out there in Fenway, what do you think of playing Ellsbury in LF and Crawford in CF for home games and vice-versa for away games? Or we could even just move Crawford to spacious RF. If Manny could play LF in Fenway, anyone can.

 

The money owed Lackey and Soriano are about the same number of dollars, about

$50M according to my calculations. This could work. But the idea of swapping OF I do not like. I think an OF needs to play one position except for rare occurrences.

[Laser Show]

The money owed Lackey and Soriano are about the same number of dollars, about

$50M according to my calculations. This could work. But the idea of swapping OF I do not like. I think an OF needs to play one position except for rare occurrences.

 

That's why I edited to include the idea of possibly moving Crawford to RF permanently. LF isn't easy at Fenway, but it's smaller than RF. With 2 speedy OF's, they could both shy to LF to cover the ground Soriano can't reach.

[iMagic10]

Please bring Lincecum to Fenway!

[SoxSport]

I wish people would stop doing that.

 

OBP is not "Walks."

 

It's batting average and walks.

 

What it is saying is that walks are a successful trip to the plate and should be treated as such, thus not counting a walk as an AB (like they do to calcuate AVG) is silly. Give credit for the walk, since it requires skill on the hitter's part. That's what OBP does and AVG does not.

 

In the moneyball book, it's about walks walks walks.

 

OBP is really affected by walks--look at Williams, Ruth and Bonds. Guys who got tons of walks--many intentional or semi-intentional. That really boosted their OBP and OPS vs other power hitters.

 

Williams based his top 20 hitters on OPS, in his book that came out in '95.

That was about the time Sandy Alderson started preaching OBP and OPS, based on Bill James

ideas. Alderson started it as GM in Oakland before Beane.

Beane had been a player in Oakland about that time--then converted to the front office.

 

Beane was a highly touted prospect who failed as a hitter because of his hot temper and his tightness (lack of patience) when he was at bat. He also was not dedicated as a player, and failed to improve himself when he was in the minors. Basically, he had a head problem.

[FredLynn]

That's why I edited to include the idea of possibly moving Crawford to RF permanently. LF isn't easy at Fenway' date=' but it's smaller than RF. With 2 speedy OF's, they could both shy to LF to cover the ground Soriano can't reach.[/quote']

 

I wonder if Crawford's weak arm would be overexposed in RF. Sure would be nice to have someone in our OF who has some sort of arm to throw out guys taking an extra base.

[La Munson]

I wonder if Crawford's weak arm would be overexposed in RF. Sure would be nice to have someone in our OF who has some sort of arm to throw out guys taking an extra base.

 

The real question about it is, is this weakness more hurting than this one, Crawford not being able to play balls that well off the green monster in LF, or him not being able to throw people out/hold people on second at all in RF.

 

And Crawford might have the worst arm of someone in the starting lineup, so there's no reason to put a position that needs a great arm to play to him. Just try to train him a little more in playing balls off the monster. They have probably already tried, but in the off-season that's probably something they really need to focus on.

[SoxSport]

What isn't covered in "moneyball", and what the statfreaks often ignore--is team chemistry--having a combination of complementary role players. I don't think you just put together a team of high OBP guys.

They have to fit your needs, too. Aside from the issue of other skills--defense, speed, etc.

 

For example, the Sox happened on it with the "Dirt Dogs", then lost some of it losing Damon--because they undervalued his "intangibles."

 

Epstein happened on good karma with Bay, VMart and Beltre. And then got rid of it. Would Bay still be a good player in Boston? Hard to say. But I think they had better chemistry with VMart and Beltre.

In 2010, they were right in the race until Pedroia and Youks got hurt. And that was with Ortiz and Beckett having off years. Would they have been better this year with VMart and Beltre instead of AdGon and CC?

I think so. Kalish would have been up and might not have gotten injured, and they would still have that trio of prospects they gave up for AdGon. They would have been better defensively, and maybe the clubhouse might have been different. And Salty would have had more help with the catching load.

Ortiz had an unexpectedly good year, but I don't think they would have missed him if they did not pick up his option, and kept VMart and Beltre. They might even have been able to lower ticket prices--heaven forbid.

[FredLynn]

The real question about it is, is this weakness more hurting than this one, Crawford not being able to play balls that well off the green monster in LF, or him not being able to throw people out/hold people on second at all in RF.

 

And Crawford might have the worst arm of someone in the starting lineup, so there's no reason to put a position that needs a great arm to play to him. Just try to train him a little more in playing balls off the monster. They have probably already tried, but in the off-season that's probably something they really need to focus on.

 

I think thats the best solution for now. Don't forget that Ellsbury also has a below average arm in CF for us.

Part of the allure of Crawford was his speed and athleticism in the OF. The dimensions of the park the Rays played in suited his defensive style very well. At Fenway he is in LF and not called on to demonstrate his speed out there nearly as often. Essentially, in playing him in LF, we have virtually eliminated one of his most productive qualities in the OF: speed.

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox have given Curt Young permission to talk to the A's abut their opening for a pitching coach. Good. This guy was as useless as tits on a bull. Hopefully, the 3rd base coach, Bogar will get a one way ticket too.

[iortiz]

The Red Sox have given Curt Young permission to talk to the A's abut their opening for a pitching coach. Good. This guy was as useless as tits on a bull. Hopefully' date=' the 3rd base coach, Bogar will get a one way ticket too.[/quote']

 

 

As I said, blow up the entire coaching staff... all of it!

[Elktonnick]

The Red Sox have given Curt Young permission to talk to the A's abut their opening for a pitching coach. Good. This guy was as useless as tits on a bull. Hopefully' date=' the 3rd base coach, Bogar will get a one way ticket too.[/quote']

 

If Bogar is given a one way ticket I hope thy drive him to the airport. If not, he may not find his way. He never seemed to get anyone else home!

[italstallianion]

If Bogar is given a one way ticket I hope thy drive him to the airport. If not' date=' he may not find his way. [b']He never seemed to get anyone else home[/b]!

 

 

mmmmmmmmm

 

+repped

[SoxSport]

 

As I said, blow up the entire coaching staff... all of it!

 

Young should pick up Bogar, too, on his way rounding 3rd.

 

And the rest of those see no evil, hear no evil coaches. :thumbdown

[SoxSport]

I figured people must have seen today's news but having not seen it posted here yet I thought well maybe not. Apparently the Padres have indicated interest in Lackey if the Sox are willing to eat "more than half his contract".

 

Epstein has agreed to eat 25% --for lunch in Kenmore square--if the Sox release him to the

Cubs.

[a700hitter]

Phillies declined options on Oswalt and Lidge.

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/24/phillies-decline-2012-options-on-roy-oswalt-and-brad-lidge/related/

[iortiz]

My guess is that the injuries don't look good.

[SoxSport]

Phillies declined options on Oswalt and Lidge.

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/24/phillies-decline-2012-options-on-roy-oswalt-and-brad-lidge/related/

 

Both guys are injury risks. Good moves by Phils, who are looking to cut salary to sign Rollins, maybe. Madsen would be a nice pickup, but isn't he a Boras client? If so, he'll be overvalued.

 

The Sox are sitting pretty with Bard as a cheap closer. They can unload Pap, who had a nice year, and get the two draft picks.

[jacksonianmarch]

Both had injury plagued yrs and their options were way over market value

[jacksonianmarch]

Both guys are injury risks. Good moves by Phils, who are looking to cut salary to sign Rollins, maybe. Madsen would be a nice pickup, but isn't he a Boras client? If so, he'll be overvalued.

 

The Sox are sitting pretty with Bard as a cheap closer. They can unload Pap, who had a nice year, and get the two draft picks.

 

The same guy who died in September? Bard hasnt proven he can close in Boston and he died in September. If Cherington allows Paps to walk and hands the job over to Bard, that would be a humongously ballsy move. Seeing as it would be a tremendous risk

[iortiz]

They must make all the NECESARY in order to sign Pap. Bard is not ready.

[jacksonianmarch]

and the rest of the pen is in horrible shape. The sox have almost no choice but to acquiesce to Paps. Otherwise, they'll need to pay top dollar to another closer, and all the others are older and less accomplished

[Elktonnick]

They must make all the NECESARY in order to sign Pap. Bard is not ready.

While I agree, I am not 100% convinced that Paps want to stay in Boston if the money is equal.

[iortiz]

and the rest of the pen is in horrible shape. The sox have almost no choice but to acquiesce to Paps. Otherwise' date=' they'll need to pay top dollar to another closer, and all the others are older and less accomplished[/quote']

 

Well, I'd take Aceves out of that list and maybe Bard (his problem IMO is more mental than Phisycal).

 

Pap has the FO by the balls.

[iortiz]

While I agree' date=' I am not 100% convinced that Paps want to stay in Boston if the money is equal.[/quote']

 

I'm afraid it is true. As I said, somehow Pap has the FO by the balls. Who is better than him in the 2012 market?