2011 Trade Deadline Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

So you want to bring in a guy who's been a .230-.240 hitter over the last couple years and defends a lot worse than Reddick?

 

Sorry, just trying to grasp the logic here.

 

Yes. I would rather have a guy who has a .864 OPS over the past 4 years combined, and an .872 OPS (136 OPS+) this year than a guy who has a .748 OPS in AAA baseball.

 

Pretty easy logic.

[Dojji]

OK, I see the problem here.

 

The problem is that you actually assign any actual credibility to minor league numbers.

 

Their association with big league performance is coincidental most of the time, I assure you.

[SoxFanForsyth]

OK, I see the problem here.

 

The problem is that you actually assign any actual credibility to minor league numbers.

 

Their association with big league performance is coincidental most of the time, I assure you.

 

Oh. Yeah. My bad.

 

Lets go call up Caleb Clay for our 5th starter. I mean, he's got a 6.93 ERA in AA, but those numbers don't mean anything.

[Cocos Disciples]

Stop being dicks to each other.

[AtWork]

Why are we arguing about players we're never going to acquire?

[AtWork]

The Red Sox will consider Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Hiroki Kuroda, Jeremy Guthrie, Aaron Harang, and Ubaldo Jimenez as they decide whether to add a starting pitcher, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. ESPN's Jayson Stark names Kuroda, Bedard, Harden, and Jimenez as pitchers on their radar. He notes that the Red Sox have "stayed involved from the beginning" on Jimenez.

The Red Sox wouldn't give up anything really good for Kuroda, opined MLB Network's Peter Gammons on WEEI's Mut & Merloni show.

Gammons believes the Cubs' Reed Johnson is the most logical fit for an outfielder for Boston.

 

2:14pm: The Cubs called the Yankees about Zambrano, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but the Yankees have no interest.

 

1:52pm: The Cubs are "trying to nudge the Yankees into taking Carlos Zambrano, offering up money to offset his salary," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. The Cubs are offering to pay big bucks on Zambrano or Alfonso Soriano in general, tweeted SI's Jon Heyman earlier.

 

The Yankees tried for starter Ricky Nolasco, tweets SI's Jon Heyman, but the Marlins are not ready to deal him. Earlier, Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to an "AL personnel man" who said he thought the Marlins would at least listen seriously on Nolasco.

 

Nolasco, 28, has a 4.04 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, and 43.6% groundball rate in 140 1/3 innings this year. The strikeout rate is his lowest since his rookie season. Nolasco has about $2.1MM left on his contract this year, plus $20.5MM for 2012-13.

[AtWork]

2:27pm: The Mets will pay $4MM of the $6MM remaining on Beltran's contract, an executive not directly involved with the trade tells Sherman. The number is confirmed by ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link).

 

1:30pm: If nothing happens in the next 24 hours to scuttle the deal, it's just Wheeler for Beltran and cash, tweets Sherman. The Mets are sending a significant amount of money, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.

 

The Mets are paying $4 million of his salary and got the Giants second best prospect in return. Like I've said all along (and I got a lot of flack for) it's wishful thinking that the Mets just want money and will not demand a blue chip prospect in return.

[Dojji]

Oh. Yeah. My bad.

 

Lets go call up Caleb Clay for our 5th starter. I mean, he's got a 6.93 ERA in AA, but those numbers don't mean anything.

 

Because that has anything to do with a guy who was in his second year of AAA getting a callup and producing.

 

Don't forget though, we called up Justin Masterson to debut at a time when he had a 4+ ERA in AA in 2008 and a 4+ ERA the prior year in 07, and that worked out OK (ignore the AAA sample, that happened after the debut).

 

Point is, talent has a way of ignoring statistical projections from time to time.

[SoxSport]

Just look at it this way: they need another RHd bat in the lineup against LHP.

Could be in the OF--Quentin, Francouer, etc. Or could be at SS. i.e., Hanley Ramirez.

Hanley might be in the cards, since most trades are never known until made, anyways.

They're might not be a better time to get him.

 

The other need is a SP. I suspect they are playing a waiting game--to see what the Yankees do.

[crc2120]

Yankees have best shot at Ubaldo

 

Of all the teams that showed interest in Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez -- and there were a lot -- the Yankees have the best chance of actually landing him, according to major-league sources.

 

The Rockies are still telling teams that they don't need to trade Jimenez, who is 27 years old and is signed to a team-friendly contract that could run through 2014. But it's clearer than ever that the Rockies are willing to make a deal, with the Reds and possibly the Red Sox as other teams that match up well enough to get a deal done.

 

The Rangers showed signficant interest in Jimenez early on, but sources said Wednesday that they were all but out now, in large part because the teams just don't match up on the value placed on prospects. Another impediment to a Rockies-Rangers deal is the lingering frustration over last year's failed talks for Michael Young, but it appears the bigger problem was a lack of a match on prospects.

 

Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd said earlier this month that he would require "a Herschel Walker-type deal" to trade Jimenez, but it appears that O'Dowd would be willing to accept something less than that, perhaps along the lines of deals that were made in recent months for Matt Garza, Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee.

 

The Yankees have basically declared top prospect Manuel Banuelos off-limits in talks, but they have enough depth that they could put together an attractive package without him. O'Dowd is said to want three or four players in return for Jimenez, and it's thought that some combination of Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Ivan Nova or Phil Hughes could convince the Rockies to make a deal.

 

The Reds also have enough prospects to make a trade work, but they have indicated a strong reluctance to deal catcher Devin Mesoraco, the prospect who most interests the Rockies.

 

Talks with the Red Sox apparently haven't advanced as far, but it's believed that they would need to build a package around pitcher Kyle Weiland.

 

Other teams that showed early interest in Jimenez include the Tigers and Blue Jays, but the chances of a deal with either of those teams appear far more remote at this point.

 

The Yankees' pieced-together starting rotation has performed well, but they still don't have a clear No. 2 starter behind ace CC Sabathia. The Yankees have looked at many available starting pitchers, including Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers and Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros, but Jimenez is the one guy who could slot in behind Sabathia in their rotation and make them more dangerous in October.

 

http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/8590096/30884925

 

Hell if they want a package built around Weiland, go for it! Throw Miller in there too just get it done!

[Dojji]

If all we need is a RH'd bat, call up Lavarnway. He can platoon with Ortiz at DH and make our lineup more righthanded against lefties.

[SoxSport]

The Mets are paying $4 million of his salary and got the Giants second best prospect in return. Like I've said all along (and I got a lot of flack for) it's wishful thinking that the Mets just want money and will not demand a blue chip prospect in return.

\\

 

Not a great deal for the Giants, since Beltran's value has been built up in the media.

The Mets figured somebody would bite. The Giants aren't going to beat the Phillies, regardless.

[SoxSport]

If all we need is a RH'd bat' date=' call up Lavarnway. He can platoon with Ortiz at DH and make our lineup more righthanded against lefties.[/quote']

 

You are nominated to tell Papi he's being platooned.

[AtWork]

Here are the pitchers rumored to be on our radar.

 

Kuroda - 127 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.77 FIP

Jiminez - 122 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.48 FIP

Bedard - 90 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.59 FIP

Harden - 23.1 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 4.83 FIP (ineffective in 2010)

 

I think Bedard would be the best fit of cost vs. need even though he's kind of a dick and struggles to stay healthy.

[AtWork]

Talks with the Red Sox apparently haven't advanced as far' date=' but it's believed that they would need to build a package around pitcher Kyle Weiland.[/quote']

 

WTF? As much as I'd love to believe that, I have a hard time buying it.

[Palodios]

Talks with the Red Sox apparently haven't advanced as far, but it's believed that they would need to build a package around pitcher Kyle Weiland.

[/Quote]

 

Weiland as the blue chip in a deal for Jimeniz? Sign Theo up.

[Will617]

Quentin is a butcher defensively who's had delusions of adequacy this year -- in left field.

 

Not even. You need 3 years of data for UZR to be reliable. Quentin's UZR for the year means about as much as Reddick's batting average for the year. (Still think Reddick will be pretty good, just not that good).

[Dojji]

I'm not using UZR. I'm using fielding wins. Quentin has been a negative WAR player each of the prior 2 years to this one, because of the glove.

[a700hitter]

Mariners Sign Wily Mo Pena

By Mike Axisa [July 27, 2011 at 7:05pm CST]

 

The Mariners have signed Wily Mo Pena to a minor league deal, the team announced in a press release. WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports (on Twitter) that the deal includes a September opt-out if he is not called to the majors. He will join their Triple-A affiliate in a few days.

 

Pena, 29, had been released by the Diamondbacks earlier this week. He hit five rather majestic homeruns in 46 plate appearances for Arizona, but he also struck out 19 times and walked not once. Pena hit .363/.439/.726 with 21 homers in 271 plate appearances for their Triple-A squad before being called up for interleague play.

[Dojji]

Why not? Not like they have a single thing to lose. This is exactly what they should be doing.

[SoxSport]

Like they said no to Beltran. Too much media buildup there.

Like if they would go big for pitching. Like Jiminez.

Like if they would go big for SS. Like Hanley.

Like this post.

[SoxSport]

Here are the pitchers rumored to be on our radar.

 

Kuroda - 127 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.77 FIP

Jiminez - 122 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.48 FIP

Bedard - 90 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.59 FIP

Harden - 23.1 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 4.83 FIP (ineffective in 2010)

 

I think Bedard would be the best fit of cost vs. need even though he's kind of a dick and struggles to stay healthy.

 

Like Bedard, too. Maybe also Harden.

Don't like Kuroda.

[SoxSport]

 

Wily Mo was signed to be the fielding helmut for the right fielder.

[AtWork]

Whoever gets Beltran only has him for 3 months and a playoff run' date=' afterwhich arb can't be offered, which means no prospects back for him signing elsewhere in the off-season. Combined with his age and injury history, the Mets will be lucky to get a good prospect back in return, even if they eat money in the deal.[/quote']

The facts are pretty clear. They need money' date=' not prospects.[/quote']

No chance they get a blue chip for him. Absolutely no chance. 2 months of an injury prone OF who can't even be offered arbitration to return anything on your investment. GM's are actually smart' date=' you know.[/quote']

I agree with you: the Mets aren't getting a top tier prospect for 2-3m of Beltran. And the A's would get even less if they moved Willingham.

 

No hard feelings

[ORS]

What?!?

 

I'm trying to force a fit?? I am??

 

I'm sorry. You're right. I don't think that a guy who hasn't touched .240 in AAA is going to come up and be a .320 hitter in the MLB. He's on an insane hot streak right now. He's going to come back down to earth, and the absolute worst thing that could happen would be for him to turn back into that .230 hitter in Septmeber and October. What have you seen in his past that makes you believe that this steak he's on is more than just an aberration?

 

It's an absolutely perfect sell high opportunity.

FTR, his .230 BA in Pawtucket this year was backed up by a .217 BABIP. This is coming from a guy that has had a .297 BABIP throughout his time in the minors (including the .217). There should be little concern about his batting average this year.

 

I'd also be curious to know what your take is on Ellsbury this year? Point being, he's never done anything like what he's doing this year. Is there a similar level of concern about him regressing in September/October?

[Jasonbay44]

If all we need is a RH'd bat' date=' call up Lavarnway. He can platoon with Ortiz at DH and make our lineup more righthanded against lefties.[/quote']

 

Platoon Ortiz? Why would we need/want to do that? He is killing left handed pitchers.

[Jasonbay44]

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that the Yankees have "intensified" their pursuit of Hiroki Kuroda.

The Tigers, who have had a longstanding interest in Kuroda, are also in the mix, along with the Red Sox, Rangers and Guardians. There is a question about whether Kuroda will be willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to an East Coast team, but recent indications are that he'd approve the move on a short-term basis.

 

-Rotoworld

[AtWork]

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that the Yankees have "intensified" their pursuit of Hiroki Kuroda.

The Tigers, who have had a longstanding interest in Kuroda, are also in the mix, along with the Red Sox, Rangers and Guardians. There is a question about whether Kuroda will be willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to an East Coast team, but recent indications are that he'd approve the move on a short-term basis.

 

-Rotoworld

 

Cashman went after Kuroda in the off-season as well. I think he wants him enough to give up the prospects. Always risky giving up significant prospects for NL West pitchers though as evidenced by Kevin Brown, Jake Peavy, Rudy Seanez, and many more.

[SoxFanForsyth]

FTR, his .230 BA in Pawtucket this year was backed up by a .217 BABIP. This is coming from a guy that has had a .297 BABIP throughout his time in the minors (including the .217). There should be little concern about his batting average this year.

 

I'd also be curious to know what your take is on Ellsbury this year? Point being, he's never done anything like what he's doing this year. Is there a similar level of concern about him regressing in September/October?

 

That's a fair point. But Ellsbury is 27 and in his peak years. Realizing extra power is not surprising here. I don't think he's going to be a consistent 25 HR hitter, but 15-18 seems reasonable. Reddick is 23 and has very limited AB in the MLB, especially against elite pitchers (i.e. Verlander, Haren, Weaver, Sabathia, Lee, Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt), all of which could potentially be seen in October.

 

I hope this is not construed as me not liking Reddick, or not rooting for him. I just think it's a fairly legitimate concern based on his small sample size in the MLB and his lack of experience against elite stuff at the MLB level.

[AtWork]

That's a fair point. But Ellsbury is 27 and in his peak years. Realizing extra power is not surprising here. I don't think he's going to be a consistent 25 HR hitter' date=' but 15-18 seems reasonable.[b'] Reddick is 23 and has very limited AB in the MLB[/b], especially against elite pitchers (i.e. Verlander, Haren, Weaver, Sabathia, Lee, Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt), all of which could potentially be seen in October.

 

That goes both ways. Are we really going to judge what kind of a player is by his age 21 and 22 stats in the minors?