2011 Trade Deadline Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

No WAY you trade Reddick for Beltran. No WAY. That stops making sense as soon as this year ends. Kid is too close to establishing himself as a star player right here. You'd have to win the world series this year not to look back and regret that one' date=' or the kid has to flame out. I don't like the odds either way.[/quote']

 

Reddick is the perfect example of a sell high player. You would have said this exact same thing about Lowrie in April. Guy was hitting .355/.378/.541 in 90 PA. After that, he regressed back to form, became the injury prone player we all knew he was. In his next 120 PA, he hit .212/.286/.298. Reddick will absolutely regress back down to his career norms.

 

Look at his stats as he increases levels.

 

A+: .343/.375/.593

AA: .257/.332/.492

AAA: .243/.300/.449

 

He's not a .380 hitter. Nobody is. He's on a complete tear right now, and he's showing a lot of talent, but he won't sustain it. It's the perfect time to sell high on him.

[Palodios]

Reddick is the perfect example of a sell high player. You would have said this exact same thing about Lowrie in April. Guy was hitting .355/.378/.541 in 90 PA. After that, he regressed back to form, became the injury prone player we all knew he was. In his next 120 PA, he hit .212/.286/.298. Reddick will absolutely regress back down to his career norms.

 

Look at his stats as he increases levels.

 

A+: .343/.375/.593

AA: .257/.332/.492

AAA: .243/.300/.449

 

He's not a .380 hitter. Nobody is. He's on a complete tear right now, and he's showing a lot of talent, but he won't sustain it. It's the perfect time to sell high on him.

 

I brought this up earlier, but based on his minor league stats, what is Reddick? He's a cost controlled kid in his early 20s who will hit .250 average, get on base around .330, hit 15-25 home runs, and play respectable defense at any OF position. I'm starting to be skeptical that Beltran is worth 6 years of that.

[Will617]

I brought this up earlier' date=' but based on his minor league stats, what is Reddick? He's a cost controlled kid in his early 20s who will hit .250 average, get on base around .330, hit 15-25 home runs, and play respectable defense at any OF position. I'm starting to be skeptical that Beltran is worth 6 years of that.[/quote']

 

Walk/strikeout numbers tend to stabilize pretty quickly (i.e. his current walk/strikeout numbers are pretty consistent with what he should produce). Therefore, a BB rate aroud 10% and a strikeout rate around 15% (both of which are pretty good) wouldn't be far off the mark - so I'd imagine he'd have a higher average and OBP.

The only problem is that he's only hit against righties, so it skews the data. I wish that Theo would play him more against lefties, to see how he handles them.

[Dojji]

I don't take those minor league numbers particularly seriously because it was well documented at the time that Reddick was working on changing his hitting approach. So it's not a good indication of where he actually was talentwise. Radically improving your offensive discipline to the point that you're not made a fool of on the outside corner consistently is not easy to do.

 

That nice walk Reddick took to help load the bases yesterday? He would have swung at those pitches last year. That's why Arietta threw them. His command of the strike zone is a lot better than in the past, because he's been working at that far more than at putting numbers up in AAA.

 

Lest we forget, those AAA numbers came after a flat month of total suckage from Reddick to start the year. He bounced back to those numbers with a hot May and that's when he got called up. The FO was apparently satisfied with what they were seeing, and it's easy to see why at this point.

[AtWork]

I brought this up earlier' date=' but based on his minor league stats, what is Reddick? He's a cost controlled kid in his early 20s who will hit .250 average, get on base around .330, hit 15-25 home runs, and play respectable defense at any OF position. I'm starting to be skeptical that Beltran is worth 6 years of that.[/quote']

 

I think he's improved his strike zone awareness by leaps and bounds this year. He may only turn out to be a .250/.330/.475 hitter with above average defense in RF, but there's also a possibility that he's becoming a much better player than that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Look at Daniel Nava. He had an OPS over .800 in his first 2 months and people on here were drooling about his potential. Then he fell back to earth and ended up being DFA'd. Reddick looks to be better than that and I think he has more raw tools, but he did recently have almost no trade value, now he's a hot prospect. With Kalish behind him and with him manning a corner OF spot, it might not be a bad time to move him. I'd look at Pence, though, if I were the sox. Put Reddick and Ranaudo out there for Pence, then you can see if he continues his success in Houston.

[Interestedobserver]

Let's put that $6 million another way, plus the revenue surge by going deeper into the playoffs or winning a WS. How much in prospects, either IFA's or overslots can that sign?

[AtWork]

Walk/strikeout numbers tend to stabilize pretty quickly (i.e. his current walk/strikeout numbers are pretty consistent with what he should produce). Therefore, a BB rate aroud 10% and a strikeout rate around 15% (both of which are pretty good) wouldn't be far off the mark - so I'd imagine he'd have a higher average and OBP.

The only problem is that he's only hit against righties, so it skews the data. I wish that Theo would play him more against lefties, to see how he handles them.

 

It's obviously different facing major league pitchers, but his minor league statistics seem to suggest that he hits both righties and lefties pretty equally. Here are his stats for every position of the minors that he got more than 100 AB.

 

2010 AAA

vs. L - .274/.310/.430

vs. R - .262/.303/.482

 

2009 AA

vs. L - .279/.351/.524

vs. R - .259/.377/.552

 

2008 AA

vs. L - .241/.371/.552

vs. R - .214/.267/.417

 

2008 A

vs. L - .348/.370/.640

vs. R - .336/.376/.570

 

2007 A

vs. L - .310/.337/.530

vs. R - .306/.366/.536

[AtWork]

Look at Daniel Nava. He had an OPS over .800 in his first 2 months and people on here were drooling about his potential. Then he fell back to earth and ended up being DFA'd. Reddick looks to be better than that and I think he has more raw tools' date=' but he did recently have almost no trade value, now he's a hot prospect. With Kalish behind him and with him manning a corner OF spot, it might not be a bad time to move him. I'd look at Pence, though, if I were the sox. Put Reddick and Ranaudo out there for Pence, then you can see if he continues his success in Houston.[/quote']

 

Reddick has been considered one of our best prospects for years. Nava was much older, he never had great raw ability and he played horrendous defense. That's not a very relevant comparrison.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I brought this up earlier' date=' but based on his minor league stats, what is Reddick? He's a cost controlled kid in his early 20s who will hit .250 average, get on base around .330, hit 15-25 home runs, and play respectable defense at any OF position. I'm starting to be skeptical that Beltran is worth 6 years of that.[/quote']

 

I think Beltran is worth that when you've got another guy in your system who has already hit .255 in the MLB in a season which he started out in AA ball, and was called up entirely too quickly, plus has 20 HR/20 SB talent and an arm like a freaking laser in Kalish. Reddick won't be a 4th OF because we have too many lefties, so his best value to the team is via a trade, and what better time to trade him than after he's put up these incredibly inflated numbers.

[Will617]

Let's put that $6 million another way' date=' plus the revenue surge by going deeper into the playoffs or winning a WS. How much in prospects, either IFA's or overslots can that sign?[/quote']

 

I'm not sure that choice is available. It sounds like the Mets are pretty set on eating the $6 million. And even if the Mets were willing to give up Beltran (and his contract) for nothing, there are so many other factors that it doesn't make sense to frame it that way (i.e. the Sox could simply spend less next season on MLB salaries, without affecting how much they spend on prospects).

[jacksonianmarch]

Nava was much older' date=' he never had great raw ability and he played horrendous defense. That's not a very relevant comparrison.[/quote']

 

It's relevant based on a minor leaguer coming up, setting the world aflame and coming back to earth. Reddick will come back to earth eventually. The question is, does he come back to earth as a .250 hitter with 15-20HR power or something better than that? If Theo is convinced he's better than that, then you keep him. If Theo is unsure, then he might as well go for a known commodity for the stretch run. The last thing you need is for a young kid playing over his head to cool off come October

[ORS]

Let's put that $6 million another way' date=' plus the revenue surge by going deeper into the playoffs or winning a WS. How much in prospects, either IFA's or overslots can that sign?[/quote']

Why do you keep assigning the $6M that comes with Beltran as if it is extra money for the team that receives him?

 

Yes, they get $6M, but that $6M goes to Beltran by season's end. That's it.

 

It's like if your boss gave you $5,000 to go buy new computers for the office. That's not $5,000 you can take to Scores and have fun with. That money is committed. If you don't show up with $5,000 worth of computers, you have some explaining to do.

[Dojji]

Look at Daniel Nava. He had an OPS over .800 in his first 2 months and people on here were drooling about his potential. Then he fell back to earth and ended up being DFA'd. Reddick looks to be better than that and I think he has more raw tools' date=' but he did recently have almost no trade value, now he's a hot prospect. With Kalish behind him and with him manning a corner OF spot, it might not be a bad time to move him. I'd look at Pence, though, if I were the sox. Put Reddick and Ranaudo out there for Pence, then you can see if he continues his success in Houston.[/quote']

 

I wouldn't pin my hopes on Kalish. He's had a very disappointing season this year.

 

Comparing Reddick to Nava is kind of silly considering they're pretty much opposites as players.

 

Nava lived and died by his hitting discipline, any power he got was predicated on his ability to make quality contact and drive the ball, kinda the way Youk was at first. Put him in the big leagues this year he'd probably still get on base at a fair clip and maybe plug a few doubles. McD is up over him because McD can play better defense.

 

Reddick on the other hand is a raw toolsy hitter with a lot of strength and power who had to learn discipline from pretty much the ground up in the Red Sox system. Considering that he's walked 11 times to 15 strikeouts in the bigs, it looks like he may have gotten the memo. Which is huge, because that had been his fatal flaw and he'd drawn a number of comps to Jeff Francoeur as a result. He'll thrive in the league based on his ability to rope line drives, and based on his defense which is very good (unlike Nava, who disappointed me defensively).

 

Also Nava was a UDFA who did very well for himself to get to the big leagues at all while Reddick was a top prospect, so there's that too.

[Will617]

Look at Daniel Nava. He had an OPS over .800 in his first 2 months and people on here were drooling about his potential. Then he fell back to earth and ended up being DFA'd. Reddick looks to be better than that and I think he has more raw tools' date=' but he did recently have almost no trade value, now he's a hot prospect. With Kalish behind him and with him manning a corner OF spot, it might not be a bad time to move him. I'd look at Pence, though, if I were the sox. Put Reddick and Ranaudo out there for Pence, then you can see if he continues his success in Houston.[/quote']

 

Nava's stats were entirely driven by unsustainable numbers (high BABIP, high strikeout rate, hitting a home run in a small sample size). Reddick has more sustainable indicators of future success - he's always had the power, and it seems like he's improved his plate discipline tremendously. That doesn't mean he'll hit .380 going forward, but a .280-.320 average and a decent OBP is sustainable, IMO.

[Dojji]

Going forward from Reddick, I see little reason not to expect .280-.340-.460 as a baseline. That's more than enough for a good defensive right fielder playing in the lower middle of the lineup.

[AtWork]

It's relevant based on a minor leaguer coming up' date=' setting the world aflame[/quote']

 

That's where the similarities end.

[AtWork]

Could you imagine if we traded Ellsbury after 2007 because his trade stock was at an all-time high and he was due to regress? Ellsbury's peripherals at the time suggested much more so than Reddick's peripherals this year that he was going to fall back to earth and he's turned out to be a pretty good player. We'd be kicking ourselves now if we traded him for a temporary fix.

[jacksonianmarch]

Could you imagine if we traded Ellsbury after 2007 because his trade stock was at an all-time high and he was due to regress? Ellsbury's peripherals at the time suggested much more so than Reddick's peripherals this year that he was going to fall back to earth and he's turned out to be a pretty good player. We'd be kicking ourselves now if we traded him for a temporary fix.

 

The thing you had with Ells was the fact that his blazing speed made you at least think he could hack it when his BABIP dropped. And Ells was playing CF well, meaning his defense played more into things. Reddick is a corner OFer now, even though he has the goods to hack it in CF. He plays solid D in RF, but that is less of a "defense first" position than CF was. And Ellsbury had a track record in the minors of being successful. Reddick has mixed success with disappointment and has already been a failure in the show before

 

Oh and in terms of bad journalism, I just read this...

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/cliff_corcoran/07/20/top.prospects/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a1

 

Kalish cannot be dealt while on the DL. Not sure why he's in the top 10 for prospects likely to be dealt

[ORS]

I wouldn't pin my hopes on Kalish. He's had a very disappointing season this year.

Given the injury, how do you even begin to rate this season? He played a dozen games then got hurt.

 

Based on what I've seen (when he was up last year) and their MiLB performance, I'd lean toward Kalish as the better player.

[Palodios]

I think he's improved his strike zone awareness by leaps and bounds this year. He may only turn out to be a .250/.330/.475 hitter with above average defense in RF' date=' but there's also a possibility that he's becoming a much better player than that.[/quote']

 

Why is everyone downplaying these numbers? A .250/ 20 HR/.800 OPS guy with good defense on the cheap for 6 years, is a very good thing, and he very easily can be better than that-- I'm just basing that off his minor league numbers.

[Dojji]

Reddick's cameos in the big leagues prior to this season wouldn't be considered either a success or a failure by you yourself if he were a Yankee. Just not enough plate appearances there.

 

And the thing you're conveniently ignoring is that there's nothing in his BABIP to suggest that he's going to fall like a rock offensively. Yeah there'll be some regression to the mean, he's not Ryan Braun, but you're talking a serious sophomore slump if you want to suggest the kid will go from stud to dud in a year.

[Dojji]

Given the injury, how do you even begin to rate this season? He played a dozen games then got hurt.

 

Based on what I've seen (when he was up last year) and their MiLB performance, I'd lean toward Kalish as the better player.

 

Frankly, the injury is part of the problem. It's beginning to look like a lost year developmentally. Not his fault surely, but still an issue. He's going to need some time to get back up to speed when he does get back, that's for darn sure.

[ORS]

Frankly' date=' the injury is part of the problem. It's beginning to look like a lost year developmentally. Not his fault surely, but still an issue. He's going to need some time to get back up to speed when he does get back, that's for darn sure.[/quote']

It is a lost year, but his development is to the point where he's ready to play in the majors. Non-issue.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Nava's stats were entirely driven by unsustainable numbers (high BABIP' date=' high strikeout rate, hitting a home run in a small sample size). Reddick has more sustainable indicators of future success - he's always had the power, and it seems like he's improved his plate discipline tremendously. That doesn't mean he'll hit .380 going forward, but a .280-.320 average and a decent OBP is sustainable, IMO.[/quote']

 

Not at all. Reddick has a .409 BABIP right now. If that was normalized to a sustainable .300, he would be hitting .244 in the MLB. Even at a high .320 BABIP, his average would only be .256.

 

It's a perfect sell high opportunity.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Frankly' date=' the injury is part of the problem. It's beginning to look like a lost year developmentally. Not his fault surely, but still an issue. He's going to need some time to get back up to speed when he does get back, that's for darn sure.[/quote']

 

Kinda like Ellsbury? :dunno:

[a700hitter]

Look at Daniel Nava. He had an OPS over .800 in his first 2 months and people on here were drooling about his potential. Then he fell back to earth and ended up being DFA'd. Reddick looks to be better than that and I think he has more raw tools' date=' but he did recently have almost no trade value, now he's a hot prospect. With Kalish behind him and with him manning a corner OF spot, it might not be a bad time to move him. I'd look at Pence, though, if I were the sox. Put Reddick and Ranaudo out there for Pence, then you can see if he continues his success in Houston.[/quote']Not all of us were singing Nava's praises, and not all of us are expecting Reddick to produce the rest of the season as a starter. But Beltran is the answer right now.

[ORS]

I agree that Beltran is the answer for now. The question is, do you give up Reddick's future for Beltran now? With Kalish in the wings, and salary coming off the books (to resign Beltran if needed), I think you do.

[a700hitter]

I agree that Beltran is the answer for now. The question is' date=' do you give up Reddick's future for Beltran now? With Kalish in the wings, and salary coming off the books (to resign Beltran if needed), I think you do.[/quote']If they only wanted Reddick, I would probably do it considering that we would still have Kalish.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I agree that Beltran is the answer for now. The question is' date=' do you give up Reddick's future for Beltran now? With Kalish in the wings, and salary coming off the books (to resign Beltran if needed), I think you do.[/quote']

 

A smart move by Theo would be to trade for Beltran, see if you can sign him to a decent contract (3/36 or something), and sign a deal enabling you to offer arbitration at the end of his new contract and net yourself the prospects you lost in the trade.