The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[italstallianion]

Just because one isn't on that list, doesn't mean that he won't end up with the team. For example, there are a bunch of relievers that are potentially available via trade that weren't mentioned that could very well be on the Sox.

 

Granted, I didn't want Jenks (or Gregg for that matter) so that particular aspect doesn't bother me. Get me Fuentes and either Guerrier/Crain and I'll hibernate for a couple of months.

[Palodios]

That's a cheap out. He hasn't hit that poorly. Look at where the numbers are, don't be shallow enough to focus exclusively on OPS when a guy with a career .350 OBP, which has NOT diminished as the power has declined, is staring you right in the face.

Again you're relying on a very shallow analysis and a couple comparisons that don't stand up, and you're ignoring some very positive attributes in order to do it. Bad form, buddy.

 

The thing is-- Mike Lowell still hit well, he just had trouble getting around the bases. The hip surgery may not mean the end of Martin's mobility, but since he relies on speed quite a bit since he doesn't hit for power, losing that speed will hurt his OBP. More infield outs will hurt his value at the plate substantially. Not to mention the possibility of further decline. Maybe he'll be fine. I'll root for him immediately if they sign him. But losing out on Olivo feels a lot like losing out on Alex Gonzalez did last year.

[Dojji]

The thing is-- Mike Lowell still hit well' date=' he just had trouble getting around the bases. The hip surgery may not mean the end of Martin's mobility, but since he relies on speed quite a bit since he doesn't hit for power, losing that speed will hurt his OBP. More infield outs will hurt his value at the plate substantially. Not to mention the possibility of further decline. Maybe he'll be fine. I'll root for him immediately if they sign him. But losing out on Olivo feels a lot like losing out on Alex Gonzalez did last year.[/quote']

 

I don't think he relies that much on speed. He's a gap hitter, not a slap hitter, and he gets most of his OBP direct from Walks, not from infield hits. He's speedier than your average catcher by quite a bit, but as non-catchers go, he's at about Pedroia level. Pretty decent but nothing epsecial. I think if lack of power was going to tank his OBP it'd have done so in the last 2 years, and moving to Fenway can only help him either way.

[redsoxrules]

come on Lee , make a decision so we can move on with our lives

[Dipre]

I don't rate Martin as high as Doiji does, but i think you're seriously overselling Olivo here.

 

His defense is not that great. He has a cannon arm, but he's not particularly mobile behind the plate, and he's a PB machine (he's lead the league in passed balls four times while not even being a regular catcher). If you ever want to call a season an outlier, then Olivo's 2010 was an outlier, and he still gave up 10 passed balls, not a good thing when you're handling a staff with so many guys with big, looping breaking balls.

 

His offense against lefties is also not that awesome. Sure, he has an .821 career OPS against lefties, but he has a .318 OBP to show for it, and an even worse .298 OBP against them last year.

 

All things considered, he's just not that good.

[Dipre]

Actually, i was wrong, his OBP vs lefties last year was .355, but i think the point still stands.

[Palodios]

Actually' date=' i was wrong, his OBP vs lefties last year was .355, but i think the point still stands.[/quote']

 

Let me stress my point. I feel about Olivo now, as I did about Alex Gonzalez BEFORE he hit all those bombs. You know what you're getting with him, and if he does exceptionally in a lineup like this, great, but if not, atleast you can count on his cannon, and considering his .821/.664 Lefty/righty split, he would have been a serviceable catcher for this team that we wouldn't have to worry about so many what-ifs. We've seen quite a few black holes at catcher so I liked Olivo for security.

[italstallianion]

And with Palodios point, I think that Olivo would drop bombs over/off the Green Monster. Not to mention that from what I've read, he's better at throwing out baserunners than Martin, and he was cheaper. The cheaper doesn't sound like a big deal, but since the Sox signed 2 big contracts and are inching towards the salary cap, the cheaper might be of some importance.

[Meh]

come on Lee ' date=' make a decision so we can move on with our lives[/quote']

 

Careful!! if you say stuff like that people will s*** their pants.

[italstallianion]

Careful!! if you say stuff like that people will s*** their pants.

 

 

Or splooge all over their computer.

[Palodios]

It sounds like Cliff Lee has the offers he's going to get and needs to just make a decision. This is why I sooo wanted the Rangers to win the WS last year...

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AruhTW7H7O3rWW8z.TnAqxWpu7YF?slug=ap-clifflee

[Dojji]

And with Palodios point' date=' I think that Olivo would drop bombs over/off the Green Monster. Not to mention that from what I've read, he's better at throwing out baserunners than Martin, and he was cheaper. The cheaper doesn't sound like a big deal, but since the Sox signed 2 big contracts and are inching towards the salary cap, the cheaper might be of some importance.[/quote']

 

Olivo is not a prodigious power threat. You put him in a lineup fulltime most years he'll hit maybe 15-18. Not bad for a catcher, but not what you're looking for in a guy you sign for the offense. Especially an all-or-nothing hitter. Gene Tenace he ain't.

 

Martin really makes up whatever you lose in power with offensive consistency (OBP) and defensive ballhandling. Olivo has some superficial things that you look at and might be tempted to consider him underrated, but I've seen him in action and have never been that impressed. He's the definition of toolsy toolsy guy who never really got it or put it together. Martin doesn't quite have the dominant toolset you're seeing when you see Olivo at his best, but you see that Olivo maybe 10 times a season. Martin will have fewer peaks and vallies and would be a steady #9 hitter if asked to start fulltime.

 

And again, the single most important thing a hitter can do at the plate is avoid making an out. Everything a hitter can do to help his team offensively shows up in OBP. Martin does OBP far better than Olivo. In short, he's a guy who even if he isn't as good as Olivo is when Olivo is good, he will outright kill you FAR LESS OFTEN than Olivo.

[alphilip77]

It sounds like Cliff Lee has the offers he's going to get and needs to just make a decision. This is why I sooo wanted the Rangers to win the WS last year...

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AruhTW7H7O3rWW8z.TnAqxWpu7YF?slug=ap-clifflee

 

I could end up being wrong, but my gut's telling me he's gonna stay in Texas. They have so many advantages over NY if they match the contract yrs: 1)No tax 2) Friends with the Rangers staff/players 3)Close to Arkansas home.

[italstallianion]

The Red Sox made an offer to Matt Guerrier. I don't know what it is, but I'd love it if we get him and one other reliever (hopefully Fuentes).

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox made an offer to Matt Guerrier. I don't know what it is' date=' but I'd love it if we get him and one other reliever (hopefully Fuentes).[/quote']I'd rather have Fuentes than Guerrier.

[italstallianion]

I'd rather have Fuentes than Guerrier.

 

 

 

Who said anything about just one? I think we should get them both.

[Will617]

I'd rather have Fuentes than Guerrier.

 

I like your avatar, and I'm not surprised you do as well (well, of course, I'm assuming you like it since you have it as your avatar).

 

(Unrelated) Apparently speedsters age better than power hitters. I'm not sure whether they lose some of their speed and make up for it in other skills, or whatever, but here's a study.

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/does_speed_age_better/

[SCM33]

I don't rate Martin as high as Doiji does, but i think you're seriously overselling Olivo here.

 

His defense is not that great. He has a cannon arm, but he's not particularly mobile behind the plate, and he's a PB machine (he's lead the league in passed balls four times while not even being a regular catcher). If you ever want to call a season an outlier, then Olivo's 2010 was an outlier, and he still gave up 10 passed balls, not a good thing when you're handling a staff with so many guys with big, looping breaking balls.

 

His offense against lefties is also not that awesome. Sure, he has an .821 career OPS against lefties, but he has a .318 OBP to show for it, and an even worse .298 OBP against them last year.

 

All things considered, he's just not that good.

 

I would take either one......over our current options. Actually, make that option (no plural). Varitek is not an option. He is a backup only.

 

Both of those guys are more appealing than Salty.

[Cocos Disciples]

Even if Olivo was an option, I'm not a huge fan of a sub-.300 OBP.

[Keeper]

Olivo is not a prodigious power threat. You put him in a lineup fulltime most years he'll hit maybe 15-18. Not bad for a catcher' date=' but not what you're looking for in a guy you sign for the offense. Especially an all-or-nothing hitter. Gene Tenace he ain't.[/quote']

 

Funny you should mention Gene Tenace. Actually not funny at all, but I was just looking at his stats the other day. What an underrated player.

[Dojji]

I was only put on notice about Tenace because of MLB.com's great moments in baseball history thingee. And yeah, he deserved more attention than he got. Sort of a Jack Cust type, except a C/1B instead of a 1B/LF. Solid player. Not a superstar, but still the kind of guy you want 9 of in your lineup.

[Dipre]

Doiji, Olivo is not that good, but Martin certainly hasn't set the world on fire the last two seasons either. A Slg% under .350 is downright pathetic.

 

I think the Sox view Martin as a high-upside signing that, even with the hip issues, is an overall better defensive catcher than Olivo, (whose 2010 i believe was an outlier except in the throwing baserunners out department), and he's more versatile offensively.

 

However, your tendency to oversell player's skills (See: Nava, Daniel) really hurts what is otherwise a solid argument.

[Dojji]

Conceding Martin's SLG obviously, I can't fight that one, but the fact is that of the two OPS components, it's more critical to maintain a high OBP than a high SLG. Martin is right there among the better OBP catchers in the league. Considering he'd be a FA and one that isn't in a position to command mucho dinero, that's a fairly nice package.

[italstallianion]

I really don't care about Martin one way or the other. I don't think we need him, but it's not the end of the world if we get him or if the Yankees get him. As long as signing Martin doesn't prevent us from getting the multiple bullpen arms that we need more. Then I won't care what we do with Martin.

[Palodios]

I think the Sox view Martin as a high-upside signing that' date=' even with the hip issues, is an overall better defensive catcher than Olivo, (whose 2010 i believe was an outlier except in the throwing baserunners out department), and he's more versatile offensively.[/quote']

 

Out of curiousity, do you happen to have solid reference guide for catcher's defense? I'm constantly looking for something along those lines, but can never find one that isn't a hassle to use.

[BSN07]

"For somebody of that stature, it would certainly behoove him to be a Yankee, which would probably be for the rest of his career," Steinbrenner, the Yankees' co-chairman, said during a telephone interview Friday

 

Pretty sure they need Lee more then Lee needs them. But what else can we expect from a Steinbrenner

[BSN07]

Out of curiousity' date=' do you happen to have solid reference guide for catcher's defense? I'm constantly looking for something along those lines, but can never find one that isn't a hassle to use.[/quote']

 

I have the same trouble. I couldn't even find % of runners caught stealing for catchers lol.

[BSN07]

SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers originally offered five years and $100MM, but they added a sixth guaranteed year and what is believed to be "some form of option that could turn the new deal into a seven-year contract" when they last visited Lee in Arkansas.

 

That's a solid offer from the Rangers IMO

[redsoxrules]

That's a solid offer from the Rangers IMO

 

Solid but the Yankee's offer blows it away , so its safe to say that Lee is considering Texas due to family reason / location , otherwise he would have jumped all over the Yankee's offer

[CoachC.]

Solid but the Yankee's offer blows it away ' date=' so its safe to say that Lee is considering Texas due to family reason / location , otherwise he would have jumped all over the Yankee's offer[/quote']

 

If you believe the Yankees blew the Rangers offer away, and it was just about years and money, then Lee would have accepted the Yankees' offer by now, but it clearly isn't only that.

 

I think that unless the Rangers match years, and are within 5% of NY, Lee ends up on the Yankees, but you never know. Between taxes and cost of living, Texas would probably only have to come within 10-15% of the Yanks offer to be worth more in real dollars.

 

The numbers between TX and NY must be pretty close given the recent report that a decision isn't expected for several days. One would think that if either team had way exceeded the offer of another, there wouldn't be much of a decision to agonize over.

 

Either that or he's been tracking a killer 12 point buck for 3 days and wants to bag it before he signs.