The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[Dipre]

So' date=' ARod is a better source for this type of information than Theo?[/quote']

 

Ah, you would be incorrect, old chap, your reading comprehension skills seem to be diminishing as you get up there in years, but no problem, i shall help you decipher exactly what i meant:

 

Theo Epstein, General Manager for the Boston Red Sox, is an actual baseball GM, talent evaluator and man of baseball, not armchair GM, self-proclaimed talent evaluator and supposed man of baseball. There is a difference between him and the internet navigators i referred to earlier.

 

Apologize for the confusion, even though it would seem you use this tactic of twisting the obvious around into an unrecognizable form of itself quite often.

 

Cheers, and good day!

[EXman369]

I love NHL games this time of year. The teams play noticeably more aggressive and the playoff contention is insane this year.

 

Yeah its where teams really start to buckle down the trades are made, and the games become more low scoring and more intense

[a700hitter]

Ah, you would be incorrect, old chap, your reading comprehension skills seem to be diminishing as you get up there in years, but no problem, i shall help you decipher exactly what i meant:

 

Theo Epstein, General Manager for the Boston Red Sox, is an actual baseball GM, talent evaluator and man of baseball, not armchair GM, self-proclaimed talent evaluator and supposed man of baseball. There is a difference between him and the internet navigators i referred to earlier.

 

Apologize for the confusion, even though it would seem you use this tactic of twisting the obvious around into an unrecognizable form of itself quite often.

 

Cheers, and good day!

I twisted nothing. I asked for a clarification. Note the question mark after my statement. I didn't know that asking for clarification was a tactic.

[bsox0407]

According to multiple sources, Tito will have his options picked up which will keep him on until after 2013.

[WhiskeyBreath]

According to multiple sources' date=' Tito will have his options picked up which will keep him on until after 2013.[/quote']

 

:thumbsup:

[Keeper]

2011 Red Sox ZiPS Projections

 

Discuss.

[Dipre]

I.....i am shocked and apalled!

 

How dare they pencil in perennial AL Silver Slugger contender at the number six position Jed Lowrie to a mere 92 games, 8 home runs, and .755 OPS??? I mean, i was all but convinced by the statistical experts here at TalkSox that the man was a lock for at least 20 home runs and an .800 OPS!

 

It is clear that there was either a malfunction in their prediction software, or the person publishing said predictions has a clear agenda against Jed Lowrie himself and the Red Sox organization....

 

I ask for, nay, demand a means to contact the people that published this filthy piece of erroneous statistical analysis so i can force them to amend this travesty of a prediction, which is clearly incorrect......

 

Or not, and it is simply common sense when using previous statistical samples and extrapolating them in conjunction with an even greater sample size (minor league numbers).

 

Anyways, fine night to you all, ladies and gentlemen! Salutations!

[SoxFanForsyth]

These seem incredibly pessimistic.

 

Gonzo with only 34 HR? I am a firm believer that he'll hit over 40.

 

Youk in 122 games? I'll take the over there. Also with his HR total of 21.

 

The biggest shock to me? I just really don't see Mikey Lowell getting into 91 games this season.

 

Honestly. These projections are a bit of a joke. Bard and Pap with the same ERA at 3.20? Not gonna happen. Buch's ERA jumping 1.5 points? I doubt it.

 

Wake me up when these things get realistic.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pettitte's going to throw 140 IP and go 9-6 next year for the Yanks over 23 starts. That's interesting as well.

[SoxFanForsyth]

@DipRe - Aren't you upset about Lowries .333 OBP?

[Dojji]

Open pot.

 

Stir vigorously.

[Station 13]

A-Gon split over the last 3 year in SD

 

Home: .257 .384 .439

Away: .310 .390 .599

 

You always hear how Petco is great for pitchers, but it's shocking if you pull up the numbers.

in other words...

 

He's gonna be a monster here.

[SCM33]

These seem incredibly pessimistic.

 

Gonzo with only 34 HR? I am a firm believer that he'll hit over 40.

 

Youk in 122 games? I'll take the over there. Also with his HR total of 21.

 

The biggest shock to me? I just really don't see Mikey Lowell getting into 91 games this season.

 

Honestly. These projections are a bit of a joke. Bard and Pap with the same ERA at 3.20? Not gonna happen. Buch's ERA jumping 1.5 points? I doubt it.

 

Wake me up when these things get realistic.

 

 

Offensively, I dont see them being that far off.

 

Only gripes I have, Youks BA seems a little low. Crawford and Ellsbury COMBINE for 80 SBs, thats low by about 20-30 SB's.

 

Why does everyone think that Gonzo will automatically hit 40 homers? HR numbers have come down, and he is playing in the AL East, not the NL West. I think 34-38 HR is a realistic projection. Keep in mind that the triangle will knock a few off the count and the fact that Fenway is a tougher park for lefties to hit, not to mention the pitching caliber is much better here than what he was used to facing.

[bsox0407]

Offensively, I dont see them being that far off.

 

Only gripes I have, Youks BA seems a little low. Crawford and Ellsbury COMBINE for 80 SBs, thats low by about 20-30 SB's.

 

Why does everyone think that Gonzo will automatically hit 40 homers? HR numbers have come down, and he is playing in the AL East, not the NL West. I think 34-38 HR is a realistic projection. Keep in mind that the triangle will knock a few off the count and the fact that Fenway is a tougher park for lefties to hit, not to mention the pitching caliber is much better here than what he was used to facing.

 

Most of Gonzo's HRs went out at Petco In LF. that place is huge as in LF.

[Dipre]

Offensively' date=' I dont see them being that far off. [/quote']

 

I disagree, old mate, they seem to be fairly on the conservative side.

 

Only gripes I have, Youks BA seems a little low. Crawford and Ellsbury COMBINE for 80 SBs, thats low by about 20-30 SB's.

 

Good ol' Youkilis has not hit under 21 Home Runs in a full season since 2007, and hit 19 in 102 games last year (on a pace for 32 over 145 games).

 

Why does everyone think that Gonzo will automatically hit 40 homers? HR numbers have come down, and he is playing in the AL East, not the NL West. I think 34-38 HR is a realistic projection. Keep in mind that the triangle will knock a few off the count and the fact that Fenway is a tougher park for lefties to hit, not to mention the pitching caliber is much better here than what he was used to facing.

 

It seems to me that you both underestimate the nature of park factors, the nature of Gonzales' offensive game and the quality of pitching in the National League West.

 

First off, you do not give enough credit to the pitching quality of the National League West, which features many standouts, combined with stadiums that feature park factors that are borderline cataclysmic on hitters. He has managed the 40 home run feat before despite these disadvantageous circumstances, and comes to a division with ballparks much more conductive to offensive production, and in specific, a park that is very suited to his penchant for hitting the baseball towards left field with power. Taking these factors into consideration should leave us with no doubt that, if healthy, the 40 home run plateau is much more than certainly, but should be easily attainable by the Red Sox' big offseason acquisition.

 

I know this man is no Jed Lowrie (i know a Jed Lowrie when i see one) but he has the possibility to accomplish great things on his own right.

 

Do not be so disrespectful of Park Factors or the quality of pitching in the NL West mate!

 

Cheers!

[Dipre]

This is for the ol' blokes who like to dabble in an endless stream of negativity and think the world is every possible shade of grey:

 

Red Sox Will Extend Gonzalez "For Sure"

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [February 22 at 8:53am CST]

 

Red Sox president Larry Lucchino confirmed on WEEI's the Dennis & Callahan Show what most of the team’s fans have been assuming since December. The Red Sox will extend Adrian Gonzalez before he hits free agency after the season.

 

"We're not going to let him get away," Lucchino said. "We're going to get him signed for sure."

 

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein says there's "no timetable" for talks between the team and its new first baseman, but it would be a surprise if the sides don't agree to a long-term deal by April. The Red Sox avoid a luxury tax hit if they wait until the season begins, so they may be inclined to finalize the deal in April, as they did with Josh Beckett last year. Though Gonzalez has denied that he has an agreement with the Red Sox, the sides have been working toward a long-term deal since December.

 

There is light at the end of the tunnel!!!

 

Cheers, mates!

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Read that yesterday and I'm glad they will. I see "cheers mate!" is your little outro. All you need is a theme song now.

[BSN07]

Dipre I'm not hating I promise. I just have to ask how do you go from the DR to Michigan and completely by pass American English and go right into the Queens English?

[SoxFanForsyth]

It seems to me that you both underestimate the nature of park factors, the nature of Gonzales' offensive game and the quality of pitching in the National League West.

 

First off, you do not give enough credit to the pitching quality of the National League West, which features many standouts, combined with stadiums that feature park factors that are borderline cataclysmic on hitters. He has managed the 40 home run feat before despite these disadvantageous circumstances, and comes to a division with ballparks much more conductive to offensive production, and in specific, a park that is very suited to his penchant for hitting the baseball towards left field with power. Taking these factors into consideration should leave us with no doubt that, if healthy, the 40 home run plateau is much more than certainly, but should be easily attainable by the Red Sox' big offseason acquisition.

 

Not to mention the fact that he clubbed 31 last year, of which 20 were away from Petco, and did it all with a torn labrum. I don't think people understand just how painful a torn labrum is. I tore mine in HS and couldn't pick up a can of coke because my arm was so weak sometimes.

 

The guy, last healthy season, hit 28 bombs in away games alone, so those ZIPS projections are incredibly conservative.

 

By the way - Here's Gonzo's spray chart from 2009 at Petco laid on Fenway - I counted at least 8 more HR and 6 more base knocks if he was playing at Fenway rather than Petco. Does that mean he's going to hit 48 bombs this year? I wouldn't put it past him, but if I'm going to make a true estimate, I would say he should hit 40+.

[Dojji]

Youk's offensive value isn't captured by home run totals anyway, so a low prediction doesn't hurt my feelings. It's something he does, but he's much better at the clutch double, and he's been a consistent .300 hitter since he started breaking out in 08 when he somehow managed to morph from an elite patient hitter into an elite contact hitter virtually overnight, and he's only gotten better at it as time's gone on. -- walking less, swinging more, and connecting with what he swings at for quality contact.

 

I see a future in baseball for Kevin Youkilis as a hitting coach. You don't make that kind of radical change and improvement in your offense without learning stuff about how to hit that other people can benefit from learning.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Papelbon on D&C on WEEI -

 

Papelbon had some struggles last season, due in large part to problems controlling his fastball. "For most of the first three months of the season, I did struggle with it, yeah. I did struggle with my fastball command," he said. "And I think I got to that classic try to overdo, try to do too much situation. I kind of tried to search for answers more than I probably should have. But the last two months of the season for me were huge as the ball started coming out of my hands a lot better. I started throwing the ball a lot better. My offspeed was where I wanted it to be. And so I kind of just took that approach that I had in the last two months of the season and tired to carry it into the offseason and try to carry it into the spring."

 

So I decided to look that up because, from what I remembered, he sucked in September.

 

April - August - 2.91 ERA, 33 saves, 6 blown saves.

Sept/Oct - 8.74 ERA, 4 saves, 2 blown saves.

 

Listen, Pap. You better not carry Sept into the offseason or you may not play baseball again.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I will say this - he went on a fantastic stretch from 6/26 - 9/2, where he threw in 21 games for 26 innings to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and a .156 BAA. That's what he needs to build on.

[SoxFanForsyth]

From Boston.com -

 

Francona was thrilled by the progress made by reclamation project Andrew Miller, the tall lefthander, who is trying to reinvent himself with the Red Sox. All signs point to Miller starting at Pawtucket, but the question is as what? The Sox may seen him as a reliever, but Miller is now throwing a mid-to-high 90s fastball, changeup and curevball. Miller said he doesn't yet know whether the team will stretch him out to start because of the number of starting pitchers in camp.

 

Man. If Miller came up mid season throwing 96-98 from the left side, and we paired that with Jenks, Bard, and Papelbon, that would be absolutely sick.

[Palodios]

There was a report from one of the boston sites about Miller. Young was watching him throw a bullpen. Miller kept throwing hard, but kept missing his throws. Young continued to watch him, not saying anything.

 

For some reason, it makes me think that maybe Miller's problems are mostly in his head.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Well I can agree that it's probably not going to be a quick fix, where he'll be ready for the 2011 season immediately, but with proper work I could see him making a few appearances around June, especially if Oki gets back to his 2010 ways or Hill doesn't pan out. I'm a huge fan of power pitchers in the bullpen, I like guys who can come in and post a big strikeout in big situations, like Bard. I think Miller is going to be this kind of a player. I'm curious to see if he gets a bit more comfortable in Boston with Bard there, since they were teammates at UNC.

 

As for the mental part - there's no telling how bad the Marlins jacked him up.

[mvp 78]

I thought it would be fun to bump an old thread for historical purposes. I don't know how often I'll do it, but probably when the mood hits.

 

To me, the best day in TalkSox history is the December 5, 2010. That day, AGon was secretly meeting with the Sox to get a physical for a trade for 3 prospects (reportedly Kelly, Fuentes and Rizzo). Most of us were rather excited over this and would have added additional prospects to the deal to make it happen. While we were all fantasizing about Petco Park spray charts, Jon Heyman (super douchebag number one) decided to throw some cold water onto us. This brought out both the worst and the best of some posters. GoBruins2011, A700 and SCM33 were happy to denounce Theo over and over for being incompetent. Other smart posters were telling everyone to relax and have some patience. That day was a roller coaster of emotion for many posters.

 

If you want to go back and read it, it starts around post #2,015.

 

Well looks like this deal will not be happening according to Heyman. Waiting on Dipre to call me out on this now. I felt all along with the front office not just Theo but all involved would blow it like they did with Tex and now it looks 60-40 they have. Way to go.

 

The following 500 posts that finally conclude with AGon's deal being confirmed as full of classic TalkSox personalities that have either been banned, left in the dustbin of history or dearly passed away.

 

This post is for you, Mike! I know you'd be into it if you were still here.

[User Name]

Cheers, mate!

[Spudboy]

Oh Christ now I have to go back and read this stuff.

[a700hitter]

I thought it would be fun to bump an old thread for historical purposes. I don't know how often I'll do it, but probably when the mood hits.

 

To me, the best day in TalkSox history is the December 5, 2010. That day, AGon was secretly meeting with the Sox to get a physical for a trade for 3 prospects (reportedly Kelly, Fuentes and Rizzo). Most of us were rather excited over this and would have added additional prospects to the deal to make it happen. While we were all fantasizing about Petco Park spray charts, Jon Heyman (super douchebag number one) decided to throw some cold water onto us. This brought out both the worst and the best of some posters. GoBruins2011, A700 and SCM33 were happy to denounce Theo over and over for being incompetent. Other smart posters were telling everyone to relax and have some patience. That day was a roller coaster of emotion for many posters.

 

If you want to go back and read it, it starts around post #2,015.

 

 

 

The following 500 posts that finally conclude with AGon's deal being confirmed as full of classic TalkSox personalities that have either been banned, left in the dustbin of history or dearly passed away.

 

This post is for you, Mike! I know you'd be into it if you were still here.

Work has been light lately?

[mvp 78]

Work has been light lately?

 

Finished Financials early this week. Had prepped for today’s Board meeting on Wednesday.