New York Yankees Gameday Thread

[diony]

Nice to see Posada back behind the plate.

 

Gardner keeps proving he's not a platoon player.

 

Encouraging game from Tex.

 

Hughes: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K.

[diony]

Damon - .329/.431/.459

Granderson - .221/.310/.377 (on the disabled list)

 

Matsui - .273/.350/.477

Johnson - .138/.383/.224

 

Granderson/Johnson with Damon/Matsui comparison?

 

You must be Imperial59

[jacksonianmarch]

Hughes dominant again. So glad we didnt deal him

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankee farm system coming through. Hughes looks like the ace of the staff right now, and the staff all in all is doing pretty well aside from Vazquez. Cano is probably the AL MVP right now, he is not missing anything. Not sure what he did in the offseason, but he needs to keep doing it. Gardner has just shown a massive maturation. His strike zone discipline has improved immensely, AND he has changed his swing. Instead of trying to get loft, he is trying to slap the ball, which fits his skillset a lot better. It's turning him into one of the league's best pests. Loving what I see.

 

Also, Tex has 6 hits in May, which is more than half of what he had in April. He's heating up. Now, all we need is for ARod to start hitting again and for Grandy to come back healthy and we'll be an unstoppable force.

[yankees228]

Alright, CC vs. Guthrie...

[yankees228]

Tejada hit it on the nose, but CC is through one unscathed.

[yankees228]

I'd love to know why Swisher was playing so deep, and why he slid for that ball.

[yankees228]

The look on the faces of the players on the bench was priceless when Winn hit that home run. Absolute shock.

[yankees228]

Even if he doesn't start the game, somehow, someway, Cervelli always ends up catching CC.

 

EDIT: One would expect a bit more offense, but CC should be able to make this hold up.

[diony]

Win.

[jacksonianmarch]

CC is becoming even more economical. Drop the K rate, get more grounders as needed. The ace wins again

[Chamomile]

Gardner keeps proving he's not a platoon player.

 

It's probably worth noting that Gardner has a .381 BABIP and only a 14.3% line drive rate. He's gotten extremely lucky. I haven't checked the stats but that could easily be the largest discrepancy between BABIP and LD% in baseball.

 

EDIT: Here are the MLB leaders in BABIP with a line drive rate below 15%.

 

Brett Gardner - .381

Ryan Doumit - .375

Cameron Maybin - .359

Derek Jeter - .333

Christian Guzman - .329

[jacksonianmarch]

Once again, inappropriate use of BABIP. He is trying to hit the ball on the ground. His BABIP should be high. When he makes contact, he is trying to hit the ball on the ground. His stats bear that out. In 2008, his GO/AO was 0.98. In 2009, it was 1.11. In 2010, it is 1.46. Also helping his BA is a drop in K rate. He's dropped from 16% from 2009 to 12%. Here are some guys who are comparable in speed to Gardner and their BABIP

 

Crawford .331 career BABIP

Ichiro .357 career BABIP

Ellsbury .328 career BABIP

 

Putting the ball in play + elite speed is great. Now, .384, probably not sustainable. But he will never drop to below .300

[Chamomile]

Once again, inappropriate use of BABIP. He is trying to hit the ball on the ground. His BABIP should be high. When he makes contact, he is trying to hit the ball on the ground. His stats bear that out. In 2008, his GO/AO was 0.98. In 2009, it was 1.11. In 2010, it is 1.46. Also helping his BA is a drop in K rate. He's dropped from 16% from 2009 to 12%. Here are some guys who are comparable in speed to Gardner and their BABIP

 

Crawford .331 career BABIP

Ichiro .357 career BABIP

Ellsbury .328 career BABIP

 

Putting the ball in play + elite speed is great. Now, .384, probably not sustainable. But he will never drop to below .300

 

The players you used for comparison are perfect examples of why Gardner's current production is unsustainable.

 

Crawford has a 20% line drive rate and a 9.5% infield hit percentage over his career to go with his .331 BABIP.

 

Ichiro has a 20.6% line drive rate and a 12.7% infield hit percentage over his career to go with his .357 BABIP.

 

Ellsbury has an 21.2% line drive rate and a 12% infield hit percentage over his career to go with his .338 BABIP.

 

Gardner has a completely unsustainable BABIP for a hitter with a line drive rate below 15% and his infield hit percentage of 18.9% is equally unsustainable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Again, completely and totally wrong. Look at the ground ball percentages. Ground balls for speedsters mean increased infield hits. Period. If he can continue a GO/AO near 1.5, he will have a BABIP near .350. Book it

[Chamomile]

Again' date=' completely and totally wrong. Look at the ground ball percentages. Ground balls for speedsters mean increased infield hits. Period. If he can continue a GO/AO near 1.5, he will have a BABIP near .350. Book it[/quote']

 

Completely and totally wrong, isn't that a little redundant?

 

Crawford has a career 45.2% ground ball rate and a 9.5% infield hit percentage.

Ichiro has a career 55.4% ground ball rate and a 12.7% infield hit percentage.

Ellsbury has a career 48.1% ground ball rate and a 12.0% infield hit percentage.

 

Any way you slice it, twist it or bend it, Gardner's 18.9% infield hit percentage is unsustainable.

[Dipre]

Once again, inappropriate use of BABIP. He is trying to hit the ball on the ground. His BABIP should be high. When he makes contact, he is trying to hit the ball on the ground. His stats bear that out. In 2008, his GO/AO was 0.98. In 2009, it was 1.11. In 2010, it is 1.46. Also helping his BA is a drop in K rate. He's dropped from 16% from 2009 to 12%. Here are some guys who are comparable in speed to Gardner and their BABIP

 

Crawford .331 career BABIP

Ichiro .357 career BABIP

Ellsbury .328 career BABIP

 

Putting the ball in play + elite speed is great. Now, .384, probably not sustainable. But he will never drop to below .300

 

Really?

 

Is that a FEARLESS prediction?

[ORS]

Again' date=' completely and totally wrong. Look at the ground ball percentages. Ground balls for speedsters mean increased infield hits. Period. If he can continue a GO/AO near 1.5, he will have a BABIP near .350. Book it[/quote']

GO/AO isn't really helpful in this discussion. It's telling you how often those hit types are fielded for outs, not how often they happen. Fangraphs tracks GB/LD/FB rates.

 

GB tend to have a BABIP of .235, Gardener is hitting 56.9% GB, which contributes .134 to his overall "true" BABIP.

 

LD tend to have a BABIP of .715, Gardener is hitting 15.4% LD, which contributes .110 to his overall "true" BABIP.

 

FB tend to have a BABIP of .140, Gardener is hitting 27.7% FB, which contributes .039 to his overall "true" BABIP.

 

That's an expected BABIP, based on contact types, of .283. Now I'll allow that this speed will require an adjustment to his GB BABIP to get a more accurate prediction of what his "true" outcome should have been, but Chamomile is right. With an LD% that low, it's going to be very hard to do what you suggest he will.

[jacksonianmarch]

57% groundballs for a lefty speed demon. I know you have your averages which work for your average speed, average player. But it just doesnt work for Gardner, Ellsbury, Crawford, or Ichiro. All left handed speed demons. He beats out over half of any GB hit to the left side of the infield. Any GB up the middle is a hit. And anything to the 2b is far from routine.

[riverside sluggers]

Gardner will never hit below .300 in his career, haha thanks for the laugh

[ORS]

57% groundballs for a lefty speed demon. I know you have your averages which work for your average speed' date=' average player. But it just doesnt work for Gardner, Ellsbury, Crawford, or Ichiro. All left handed speed demons. He beats out over half of any GB hit to the left side of the infield. Any GB up the middle is a hit. And anything to the 2b is far from routine.[/quote']

I agree there is an adjustment to be made for their speed, but when Crawford, Ellsbury, and Ichiro, all lefty speedsters, hit for a significantly higher LD% and end up with a cumulative BABIP below the level you are suggesting, then your prediction kind of falls apart.

[Chamomile]

57% groundballs for a lefty speed demon. I know you have your averages which work for your average speed' date=' average player. But it just doesnt work for Gardner, Ellsbury, Crawford, or Ichiro. All left handed speed demons. He beats out over half of any GB hit to the left side of the infield. Any GB up the middle is a hit. And anything to the 2b is far from routine.[/quote']

 

You keep trying to compare him to Crawford, Ichiro and Ellsbury but those three players have a much higher LD%, they're also very fast lefties and they also hit the ball on the ground about half the time, yet they all have much lower BABIP's. There doesn't appear to be any precedent for what you're acting like is common sense.

 

Can you name a single player that's had a BABIP over .375 and a line drive rate below 15%?

[yankees228]

Going back to last night, I was definitely encouraged by Joba's performance. The velocity was up (95-96), and the slider was decent. Once again, hopefully as Joba re-acclimates to the relief role, he finds that elusive consistency.

[jacksonianmarch]

Another dominant performance from Burnett. The offense got just enough and Joba slammed the door. See, this is how you beat the Orioles....

[yankees228]

As Jacko said, another really good start from a Yankees' pitcher, and I'm very happy to see back to back solid outings from Joba. He has maintained a consistent velocity of 95-96 MPH the last two nights, and the slider was good.

 

As for the offense, I'm obviously still waiting for Teixeira and A-Rod to really hit their strides, but in the meantime, it's nice to be carried by some unlikely guys (Winn last night, Cervelli tonight). I'm not going crazy and advocating that Cervelli start over Posada, and I expect Cervelli to cool off at the plate, but I have to admit that I don't mind at all when he starts.

 

Besides the fact that he has been playing well, I enjoy watching the energy that he brings every game. He was asked by Kim Jones on the post game show if he was going to enjoy this victory, and he said he does every time. It's always nice to hear things like that.

 

Anyway, good win, and they go for the sweep tomorrow afternoon.

[Chamomile]

As Jacko said, another really good start from a Yankees' pitcher, and I'm very happy to see back to back solid outings from Joba. He has maintained a consistent velocity of 95-96 MPH the last two nights, and the slider was good.

 

As for the offense, I'm obviously still waiting for Teixeira and A-Rod to really hit their strides, but in the meantime, it's nice to be carried by some unlikely guys (Winn last night, Cervelli tonight). I'm not going crazy and advocating that Cervelli start over Posada, and I expect Cervelli to cool off at the plate, but I have to admit that I don't mind at all when he starts.

 

Besides the fact that he has been playing well, I enjoy watching the energy that he brings every game. He was asked by Kim Jones on the post game show if he was going to enjoy this victory, and he said he does every time. It's always nice to hear things like that.

 

Anyway, good win, and they go for the sweep tomorrow afternoon.

 

With four members of the rotation performing well above their career abilities, and bench players carrying the team, the Yankees are a prime candidate for regression as the season goes on.

[yankees228]

With four members of the rotation performing well above their career abilities' date=' and bench players carrying the team, the Yankees are a prime candidate for regression as the season goes on.[/quote']

 

CC probably won't be quite this good, but I don't expect any kind of drastic regression from him. He's a second half pitcher as it is, so it's not unreasonable to think that maybe he's just going to put an entire year together.

 

As for Burnett, Hughes, and Pettitte, I agree, you're definitely going to see a regression, sometime in the near future. However, they should also get something out of the fifth starters spot at some point.

 

When it comes to the offense, yeah, for two games they've benefitted from a couple bench players. I'd hardly say that they're carrying the team. A-Rod and Teixeira are going to start hitting at some point, and you can expect good years out of many of the other guys in the lineup. The offense doesn't seem like a valid concern to me.

[jacksonianmarch]

And now that he's been outed, he throws off the guise and jumps right back into what he does best. Sorry chap. I guess you'll be banned by the time my shift is over

[Dipre]

Another dominant performance from Burnett. The offense got just enough and Joba slammed the door. See' date=' this is how you beat the Orioles....[/quote']

 

You are a douche.

[yankees228]

Really nice to see Nick Johnson finally do something. Hopefully that'll get him going.