New York Yankees 2010 offseason thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Imperial is doing what he does best, pick a fight with absolutely no thought or substance behind it. Kennedy and Lester were being compared pretty constantly a few yrs back when Lester was topping out at 92mph and was struggling with his command. Lester got stronger, regained his prior velocity and sharpened his location. He also developed that cutter which makes his very tough on righties. Once that got perfected, he was golden. But he made a total transformation from where he was in 2006 and 2007. Kennedy, OTOH, got one chance, in 2008, and sucked then got hurt. But he was drafted in 2006 and made his big league debut in 2007 for a big market team. Do you know how hard that is? He readily dominated minor league hitters at a young age at all levels and just couldnt get over the hump in the bigs. Now, he's on a losing team in the desert where people dont care. I seriously think that he is going to get a lot better going forward. But I was wrong on that initial case. Lester and Kennedy had a lot of similarities and Kennedy was a better bet going forward at the time. Lester took off, Kennedy stalled. Its as simple as that

[jacksonianmarch]

That's a big if though. When has a young Yankees player ever played up to what Jacko claimed he expected of them? He said that he thought Ian Kennedy was a better young pitcher than Jon Lester.

 

How long have you been here? And do you know anything about development?

 

I would say that I was spot on with Joba. He'll be a lights out closer type or if converted to the rotation, would have an inconsistent first season then improve from there.

 

Hughes got hurt, so that hindered his progression a bit, but he certainly played a dominant role on the 2009 championship team.

 

I was right on Aceves and on Robertson. I predicted that Coke would be a useful lefty reliever for us when we didnt trade him for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte.

 

There are plenty of guys who come up with hype who miss. Most of the guys who I liked who busted did so due to injury, which really isnt predictable but is pretty prevalent in the prospect game.

 

There are two schools of thought, undersell everyone and then be surprised when they make it. Or put the player out there for all to see with their tools and their weaknesses and make a ceiling and a projection, which I did this yr.

[Imperial59]

Imperial is doing what he does best' date=' pick a fight with absolutely no thought or substance behind it.[/quote']

 

At least I'm not known best for insulting all the other posters on the site when they don't agree with my incredibly biased opinions. :dunno:

 

Guess it could be worse.

[Imperial59]

And do you know anything about development?

 

It REALLY cracks me up that you think you're some kind of developmental expert. What, did you go to a few minor league games, read other people's scouting reports on the players and take a peak at their minor league stats.

 

You're not more a scout than anyone on this board.

[Plumpamania]

Imperial is doing what he does best' date=' pick a fight with absolutely no thought or substance behind it. Kennedy and Lester were being compared pretty constantly a few yrs back when Lester was topping out at 92mph and was struggling with his command. Lester got stronger, regained his prior velocity and sharpened his location. He also developed that cutter which makes his very tough on righties. Once that got perfected, he was golden. But he made a total transformation from where he was in 2006 and 2007.[/quote']

 

Lester also overcame CANCER, and was a better product going through with projects anyways.

 

Kennedy, OTOH, got one chance, in 2008, and sucked then got hurt. But he was drafted in 2006 and made his big league debut in 2007 for a big market team. Do you know how hard that is? He readily dominated minor league hitters at a young age at all levels and just couldnt get over the hump in the bigs. Now, he's on a losing team in the desert where people dont care. I seriously think that he is going to get a lot better going forward. But I was wrong on that initial case. Lester and Kennedy had a lot of similarities and Kennedy was a better bet going forward at the time. Lester took off, Kennedy stalled. Its as simple as that

 

8.17 ERA 1.91 WHIP...39.2 IP, 23 year old season for Ian Kennedy

4.76 ERA 1.64 WHIP...81.1 IP, 24 year old season for Jon Lester

 

That was both player's extended first stay at the MLB level. To say that "OMG LESTER GOT ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD TO WORK THINGS OUT" after that is folly, the MAN HAD CANCER AFTER THAT.

 

Stop making excuses for overhyped Yankee prospects..Dionner Navarro and Kevin Mass say hello.

[Plumpamania]

PS Joba is crap as a SP...

[jacksonianmarch]

like two peas in a moron pod

[Plumpamania]

Sounds like Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner.

[Plumpamania]

like two peas in a moron pod

 

Try to assist me with how Ian Kennedy hasn't been given a fair shot?

[26 to 6]

Look Kennedy is what he is, I acknowledge that. But he was very highly touted as a college pitcher and when he was drafted and coming up. He was rushed a bit with surely affected his development, but I don't see why we're arguing about this. Projections don't mean anything in the end, so Red Sox fans getting angry at the fact that Kennedy was projected to be just as good or better than Lester shouldn't be an issue, because as things have turned out that obviously isn't the case.

 

What's the deal? Sometimes I feel like some people on here just enjoy arguing. If that's the case go to law school and do something productive with your argumentative personalities. Because it gets so unbelievably annoying on a message board.

[jacksonianmarch]

the problem is that a lot of the level headed posters on this site have diminished their posting and we have the new tainted blood posting. Over time, some will calm down into good posters, some will get bored, and others banned. Its the way things are

[Plumpamania]

Jackson can you describe for me what type of poster you are?

 

(PS Kennedy wasn't as rushed as Hughes was, or Navarro....)

[a700hitter]

Jackson can you describe for me what type of poster you are?

 

(PS Kennedy wasn't as rushed as Hughes was, or Navarro....)

Jackson has calmed down into a good poster from his prior incarnation under another username. He annoys people, because he is a Yankee fan. Most of you are not used to being around Yankee fans so he gets under your skin. I am surrounded by them, and I can tell you that on the "annoying scale," for Yankee fans, he is average.

[26 to 6]

Jackson can you describe for me what type of poster you are?

 

(PS Kennedy wasn't as rushed as Hughes was, or Navarro....)

Kennedy was rushed more than Hughes, for sure. Hughes was drafted in '04, Kennedy in '06. Both made their ML debuts in '07 (Hughes in April, Kennedy in September). After Hughes was drafted and signed they coddled him so unbelievably, keeping him on strict pitch and inning limits (so much so that one time in AA he had a no-hitter in the 5th inning and they took him out because he had reached his limit). It's understandable to think that they rushed him given his performance in '08 given his first opportunity to be a full-time ML starter, but I assure you they were very patient and careful with him, and at the time thought he was ready. When it was clear he wasn't they had no qualms about sending him back down to begin '09 in Scranton.

[Plumpamania]

Hughes was also drafted as an 18 year old high school pitcher, Kennedy as a seasoned D-I pitcher. If anything Hughes was rushed moreso. And it seems as though he's destined for middle relief for a career as is Chamberlain.

 

Great Yankee farm system graduates.

[yankees228]

Hughes was also drafted as an 18 year old high school pitcher, Kennedy as a seasoned D-I pitcher. If anything Hughes was rushed moreso. And it seems as though he's destined for middle relief for a career as is Chamberlain.

 

Great Yankee farm system graduates.

 

I completely disagree with your assessment of Hughes' future. First, I don't think he's necessarily destined to be a reliever, but hypothetically, lets say he is going to just be a reliever. Based on what we've seen from him so far, why would you only say he's going to be a middle reliever.? He might not sustain it, but he was nothing short of dominant this year in a short relief role. If Hughes' future is in the bullpen, it's not fair to call him a middle reliever. Instead, set-up man or closer is more accurate.

 

As for him being a starter, he may, or he may not, but he began to show some promise last May before Wang came back. If he can further develop his change up, in my opinion, there is no reason not to think he can be a successful big league starter.

 

People love to throw these prospects into groups based on very small sample size. They may or may not pan out, but it has been proven time and time again that patience needs to be shown with them. With Hughes, and also with Chamberlain, I think that patience is important.

[Plumpamania]

I think Hughes has a much better chance at SP development than Chamberlain, but the Yankees will never left him sniff the rotation again until at least 2011 at the earliest. Which is sad. He had Clemens type comparisions when he was 20...

[Imperial59]

When talking about the "weaknesses" of the '10 Yankees, you are perhaps trafficking in fine points. After all, the reigning world champs are poised to make another vigorous charge for the title. But age -- and, by extension, decline phases -- could complicate matters. To wit, the closer is 40, the shortstop is 35, the third baseman is 34, the catcher is 38, the third starter is 33, the fourth starter is 37, the first lefty out of the pen is 35 ... Well, you get the idea. The Yankees have a number of core contributors who are on the wrong side of 30, and that means sudden declines and injuries are possible. They'll need to plan and adjust accordingly.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/even-the-best-teams-have-reason-to-worry

 

From an article discussning the biggest flaws of MLB's best rosters. Their "fatal flaw" for the Red Sox was left-handed relief.

[italstallianion]

At least I'm not known best for insulting all the other posters on the site when they don't agree with my incredibly biased opinions. :dunno:

 

Guess it could be worse.

 

 

 

Hmm, I thought he was only known for overhyping everything Yankee related and being overly nitpicky about anything Boston related. Hence ORS came up with the incredibly accurate prospect chart to explain Jacko's reaction to varying elements. In fact, we don't even need Jacko as a poster here because he can/will always be more succinctly replaced by the chart.

[italstallianion]

the problem is that a lot of the level headed posters on this site have diminished their posting and we have the new tainted blood posting. Over time' date=' some will calm down into good posters, some will get bored, and others banned. Its the way things are[/quote']

 

 

 

Seeing as you are one of them....although judging how long you've been here I don't see you turning into a good poster, getting bored, or well, I don't see you getting banned because then the site will be boring with most people agreeing with each other. We always need the ignorantly optimistic Yankee fan to keep us entertained and to give us someone to rip on. With Gom gone I don't think I could survive here if you got banned.

[26 to 6]

Hughes was also drafted as an 18 year old high school pitcher, Kennedy as a seasoned D-I pitcher. If anything Hughes was rushed moreso. And it seems as though he's destined for middle relief for a career as is Chamberlain.

 

Great Yankee farm system graduates.

Those are good points, but I don't think it's fair to say Hughes is destined to a future of relief. He's still young enough and good enough to develop into a top of the rotation starter. I'm not saying that's going tot be the case because we don't know.

[26 to 6]

I think Hughes has a much better chance at SP development than Chamberlain' date=' but the Yankees will never left him sniff the rotation again until at least 2011 at the earliest. Which is sad. He had Clemens type comparisions when he was 20...[/quote']

I think if he outperforms Joba in spring training they'll be comfortable throwing him out there as the #5 this year

[Plumpamania]

That I'm not sold on b/c while living here in NY all I hear about is Joba b/c he's a fanfare phenomina. I don't think Hughes will ever get a fair shake. If given his shot to develop like King Felix did, I strongly feel that Hughes would be just the same as Felix. I mean that. It's just sad to see him getting forked over.

[26 to 6]

That I'm not sold on b/c while living here in NY all I hear about is Joba b/c he's a fanfare phenomina. I don't think Hughes will ever get a fair shake. If given his shot to develop like King Felix did' date=' I strongly feel that Hughes would be just the same as Felix. I mean that. It's just sad to see him getting forked over.[/quote']

Yeah but I think the fans would prefer to see Joba in the pen, and besides I don't think Girardi and Cashman make their decision on Hughes based on what the fans think of Joba. I honestly (and hopefully) think that whoever performs best in spring training gets the spot in the rotation, whether it be Joba, Hughes, Gaudin, or Aceves.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think if he outperforms Joba in spring training they'll be comfortable throwing him out there as the #5 this year

 

I am not sure 26. I think the eventual plan is to have both of them in the rotation. But right now, none of them are strong plays as anything more than a #5 starter due to their unpredictable nature. Also, we proved last yr, that both of them could be lights out setup men, and we proved how important that role is to this time. Hughes going to the pen was probably the best thing that could have happened to this team. He went out there and stabilized a bridge that was so bad that 5 run leads werent safe. Now, the pen seems to have settled down a bit, but having Hughes or Chamberlain out there would really make it a lights out case.

 

Overall, I think I see the FO's plan here. We have 6 starters if you count Hughes and Joba. 2 of them are on 1 yr deals in Vazquez and Pettitte. Assuming all goes well, I expect Joba to break camp in the rotation. The hope is that Joba performs akin to a #4 this season and becomes more reliable. That means that next offseason, NY could either resign Vazquez or go after Cliff Lee and leave that #5 slot to Hughes. This is all perfect world speak here, but I highly doubt Cash will ever leave 2 spots in the rotation up to chance again after the debachle in 2008. He'll work in one pitcher per yr, IMO, and once that pitcher becomes reliable, then he'll work another one in. Joba just needs to step up IMO

[Imperial59]

Logistically, Chamberlain makes a lot more sense as the starter. Hughes hasn't pitched much more than 100 innings in a season in each of the last three years. And it would be more difficult for him to transition back to being a starter now that he's scrapped his slider and abandoned his change.

 

It should be interesting to see how Hughes does in a second year as a reliever. He had a few indicators, nothing too major, that suggested he a bit lucky. His BABIP once he became a reliever was well below .300 and his HR/FB rate was something like 3%.

[jacksonianmarch]

He threw 107IP last season and if you count in the 40 innings of Arizona Fall League in 2008, he was over 100 then too. Thing is, he hasnt reached the 146IP he threw in 2006. His IP totals have been..

 

2006- 146.0IP

2007- 110.1IP

2008- 109.2IP (including AFL)

2009- 107.1IP

 

These all include MiLB numbers btw. Hughes hasnt been shortened, he just hasnt been fully stretched out. I think the overall state of the pen will determine how he is used this yr. If Dave Robertson and Damaso Marte pitch like they are capable of pitching, then Hughes could be rotated into and out of the setup role. He could go from being the setup man to throwing 3 innings of relief back to setup man to keep his arm stretched out. If the rest of the pen falls through, then he'll probably be in the 70IP range, which isnt enough.

 

Regardless, if Hughes gets stretched out to starter in 2011, it will be similar to how we handled Joba last yr. He'll start out the yr going as long as he can and then start skipping starts or being shortened like Joba was. That being said, there is a pro and a con to that approach. The pro being, the player isnt overworked and should be healthy going into the next season. The con is, you run the risk of rendering that player totally ineffective, which is what happened to Joba. But after #27 last yr, I am really happy it worked out and Joba should be healthy and ready for 190IP or more come 2010.

[Imperial59]

He threw 107IP last season and if you count in the 40 innings of Arizona Fall League in 2008, he was over 100 then too. Thing is, he hasnt reached the 146IP he threw in 2006. His IP totals have been..

 

2006- 146.0IP

2007- 110.1IP

2008- 109.2IP (including AFL)

2009- 107.1IP

 

These all include MiLB numbers btw. Hughes hasnt been shortened, he just hasnt been fully stretched out. I think the overall state of the pen will determine how he is used this yr. If Dave Robertson and Damaso Marte pitch like they are capable of pitching, then Hughes could be rotated into and out of the setup role. He could go from being the setup man to throwing 3 innings of relief back to setup man to keep his arm stretched out. If the rest of the pen falls through, then he'll probably be in the 70IP range, which isnt enough.

 

Regardless, if Hughes gets stretched out to starter in 2011, it will be similar to how we handled Joba last yr. He'll start out the yr going as long as he can and then start skipping starts or being shortened like Joba was. That being said, there is a pro and a con to that approach. The pro being, the player isnt overworked and should be healthy going into the next season. The con is, you run the risk of rendering that player totally ineffective, which is what happened to Joba. But after #27 last yr, I am really happy it worked out and Joba should be healthy and ready for 190IP or more come 2010.

 

Two things:

 

I think the Yankees should avoid moving Hughes in and out of the bullpen/rotation. They should pick a role and stick with it because switching him back and forth stunts his development and increases the risk for injury. And Hughes has had some injury problems.

 

It wasn't the Joba rules that made Chamberlain ineffective. He had very poor peripherals all year as a starter. In fact, his first half peripherals were even worse than his second half ones.

[jacksonianmarch]

It all depends on how you want to slice it. Here are the stats from the first four months and the last 2 months....

 

First 4 months- 110.6IP 105H 44ER 97K 50BB 1.40WHIP 7.9K/9IP 4.1BB/9IP 1.9K/BB 3.56ERA

Last 2 months- 45.2IP 62H 39ER 36K 26BB 1.92WHIP 7.1K/9IP 5.1K/9IP 1.4K/BB 7.68ERA

 

I dont think there is much debate that both fatigue and the monkeying around affected him. His numbers bear it out

[Imperial59]

It all depends on how you want to slice it. Here are the stats from the first four months and the last 2 months....

 

First 4 months- 110.6IP 105H 44ER 97K 50BB 1.40WHIP 7.9K/9IP 4.1BB/9IP 1.9K/BB 3.56ERA

Last 2 months- 45.2IP 62H 39ER 36K 26BB 1.92WHIP 7.1K/9IP 5.1K/9IP 1.4K/BB 7.68ERA

 

I dont think there is much debate that both fatigue and the monkeying around affected him. His numbers bear it out

 

If you cherry pick it to try to include games after the All-Star break in the first half, then there is a dramatic difference. But that's rather misleading. His best stretch of the year was the three games he had after the All-Star break, coming off 8 days of rest. That was the only time all year he had 3 quality starts in a row. Like I said, he had very poor peripherals all year. In the first half he had a 9.81 H/9, 4.25 BB/9 and a 1.56 WHIP. It's not like he was a good starter until he got tired later in the year. He greatly overperformed the entire season and if he pitched down to the level of his peripherals he probably wouldn't have kept his spot in the rotation.