Theo wants Felix Hernandez

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are 8-9 since the break, so I can see why he's frustrated.

 

Also, the red sox starters this season have the following numbers.

 

46-31 4.54ERA 628IP 678H 317ER 203BB 529K 1.40WHIP. Most of those numbers (aside from K's) sit right in the middle of the majors with the yankees. But where the sox have had the biggest trouble is when a pitcher other than Lester or Beckett takes the hill. Here are the numbers of those guys...

 

24-20 5.38ERA 345IP 418H 206ER 116BB 239K 1.55WHIP. That is a massive dropoff from the top two to your 3-5. That is not something that will win.

[Rdsxmbnt]

That is not something that will win.

 

Well it has 55% of the time

[jacksonianmarch]

For comparison...

 

Yankees starters

42-28 617.2IP 630H 313ER 245BB 488K 4.56ERA 1.42WHIP

 

Yankees starters without CC and Burnett

21-16 330.2IP 368H 188ER 137BB 257K 5.11ERA 1.53WHIP

 

the numbers outside of the top 2 on both teams are close, but the yankees have the better WHIP and the significantly better ERA. That being said, those numbers are skewed by a guy who isnt even there anymore in Wang, whose ERA of 11.38 and WHIP of 2.18 over 34 innings skew the numbers significantly.

[a700hitter]

They don't need to rebuild if they don't sell all their younger players for a guy with 1.5 years left on his deal and who is entering his mid-30s. Not selling their young players means they shouldn't have to rebuild.

First of all, 32 is not mid-30's. His current contract would be up at age 33. There would have been no need for either Buchholz or Bowden if we got Halladay. Neither of them would have cracked that staff with Dice k and Wakefield being the 4th and 5th guys. By 2011, the next crop of prospect pitchers would have been knocking on the major league door and the FO would either give them a shot or package them for an established star. So, if done properly, getting Halladay would not cause the team to have to rebuild in a couple of years.

 

1) Their drafts now are really quite different from the decades that you have been following the team. They are much more aggressive and are kind of breaking the mold in terms of being willing to pay above slot for good players. I expect more out of their drafts now than anyone should have reasonably expected in the past.

 

2) Whether you or I know whether these guys turn into stars or not, the Sox FO should have the clearest idea. Given their ability to project the future utility of guys like Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Bard, Delcarmen, etc., I'd say they know their stuff.

Yeah, okay. I don't think that I have disputed that.

 

3) When you look at actual metrics like WARP (which I know you could care less about' date=' but which others do care about) it is quite probable that someone like Buchholz will be more valuable to this team over 6 years than Halladay would be for 1.4. Bard probably projects to be more valuable over 6 years than Halladay over 1.4 too. Who else would you have added to get Halladay? 6 years of Reddick?[/quote'] When comparing financial value, payments that will be received in the future get discounted to provide a present value of those payments. The time value of money has to be taken into account. In my line of work, I deal with actuaries who have to price all sorts of financial products. It's a very precise mathematical science. If they make a mistake it a can cost billions of dollars in lost business opportunities or actual losses on the products sold. They don't have the luxury of erring too high, because the product would be non-competitive. And they can't err on the low side or the Company would suffer financial loss. I have a deep appreciation for their skill. I don't know about WARP projections, but if they don't get discounted for a present value, then I don't agree that it provides an apples to apples comparison, and I don't know if I have much confidence in the accuracy of the assumptions necessary to provide a reliable outcome. In other words, Cliff Lee makes the Phillies a much better team today, but whether those prospects pay off for the Guardians... well, that is very speculative.

 

The problem is that you don't do a very good job of evaluating when your team is good.

 

How you could say this team isn't "good" is beyond me. They have the 3rd best record in the AL, would have the second best record in the NL, and have the 4th best record in MLB.

 

They have the best run differential (+94) in the league, and the second best in all of baseball.

 

They are 6th in MLB in runs allowed (1st in the AL)

They are 4th in MLB in runs scored (4th in the AL)

 

You are the grass-is-greener type, but I don't know whose grass you are looking at. In terms of having a "good" team and being happy, you should be happy.

Boy, you are presumptuous aren't you. Did I ever say that this team is not good? It is a very talented team, but in my opinion it could be better. You are a rose-colored optimist. I am not. I see weaknesses in every team and I express my opinion about those weaknesses. It seems that unless I like every move that the Red Sox make and if I am not thrilled about every raw green kid that gets called up then you are not happy.

 

I care about this team being good now too. I watch all the games' date=' I care. But they are good, and they will continue to be good because people who care about the present and the future run this team.[/quote']So, will you still be happy if Tampa spanks us tonight and the Yankees beat us up over the weekend? I will not be happy.

 

Hence the addition of someone like Victor Martinez. To you' date=' a non deal. Something not even worthy of excitement. To me, a #3 batter, a switch hitting catcher, 3 time all star who can help this team in many, many ways.[/quote']I never said it was a non-event. He will help the offense a great deal if he takes Varitek's spot, but that is not how Tito is using him. I said that there were more pressing more critical needs that needed to be addressed that were not addressed.

[Dipre]

For comparison...

 

Yankees starters

42-28 617.2IP 630H 313ER 245BB 488K 4.56ERA 1.42WHIP

 

Yankees starters without CC and Burnett

21-16 330.2IP 368H 188ER 137BB 257K 5.11ERA 1.53WHIP

 

the numbers outside of the top 2 on both teams are close, but the yankees have the better WHIP and the significantly better ERA. That being said, those numbers are skewed by a guy who isnt even there anymore in Wang, whose ERA of 11.38 and WHIP of 2.18 over 34 innings skew the numbers significantly.

 

Dice-K says hello, troll.

[example1]

First of all' date=' 32 is not mid-30's. His current contract would be up at age 33. There would have been no need for either Buchholz or Bowden if we got Halladay. Neither of them would have cracked that staff with Dice k and Wakefield being the 4th and 5th guys. By 2011, the next crop of prospect pitchers would have been knocking on the major league door and the FO would either give them a shot or package them for an established star. So, if done properly, getting Halladay would not cause the team to have to rebuild in a couple of years. [/quote']

 

Buchholz is the best prospect this team has had in a long time. His value to other teams is hith. There's reason to believe he coudl be used to land someone like Felix Hernandez or Adrian Gonzalez (signed to long deal), both of whom would provide this team a similarily longterm answer at key positions. Halladay is a short term solution who costs not only $15m, but also the best prospects in the system in Buchholz + Bard + ???.

 

I would have been happy either way, honestly. I think getting Halladay would undoubtedly have helped this year's team, but this team is in a great position as is and gets a payoff in other areas by keeping Bard and Buchholz. My assumption is that the FO has found a very accurate and beneficial way of analyzing this type of trade--they aren't doing it because they have a foolish overprojection of their talent or overprojection of the potential value of that talent.

 

Jon Lester has paid off well and I think you'd be hard pressed to find a Sox FO person who thinks Lester had better stuff at the same age.

 

When comparing financial value, payments that will be received in the future get discounted to provide a present value of those payments.

 

Even with discounted values given for the length of player production, do you think that Buchholz averaging between 2-3 WARP per season and Halladay getting probably 9-10 WARP over the length of his contract are equal for this team? When I multiply 2 x 6 I get 12, so conservatively their value might be equal. This doesn't count Bard. This doesn't count cost, just how many wins will they give this team over the course of their contracts.

 

Of course, if Buchholz is able to put together ONE season like Lester's last year then he'll likely surpass Halladay singlehandedly in 2 seasons.

 

 

 

Boy, you are presumptuous aren't you. Did I ever say that this team is not good? It is a very talented team, but in my opinion it could be better. You are a rose-colored optimist. I am not. I see weaknesses in every team and I express my opinion about those weaknesses.

 

Presumptuous? You said: "When the team is good, I am happy. When they are not good, I am not happy." while you were complaining about them and talking about rather being at a concert than watching the Sox get crushed by the Yankees.

 

I took that to mean that you weren't happy, and I assumed your comment was commenting on that discontent. I guess everything is fine then, you're happy.

 

It seems that unless I like every move that the Red Sox make and if I am not thrilled about every raw green kid that gets called up then you are not happy.

 

Which "raw green kid" have you ever been thrilled about?

 

So, will you still be happy if Tampa spanks us tonight and the Yankees beat us up over the weekend? I will not be happy.

 

I will temporarily be unhappy, but I have faith that this team has many very positive things coming up for it in the future, and will be happy again soon.

[a700hitter]

Presumptuous? You said: "When the team is good, I am happy. When they are not good, I am not happy." while you were complaining about them and talking about rather being at a concert than watching the Sox get crushed by the Yankees.

 

I took that to mean that you weren't happy, and I assumed your comment was commenting on that discontent. I guess everything is fine then, you're happy.

We are a good team, but the Yankees are better. The FO should have addressed that gap in a better way at the deadline. Unfortunately for us Tampa is in our division and they are very good too.

 

Which "raw green kid" have you ever been thrilled about?

First of all, a raw kid should never be brought to a veteran laden team with the resources of the Red Sox. Any prospect should be seasoned enough that he will have a chance to succeed. That being said, I've liked Papelbon, Ellsbury and Lowrie tight from the get go. I get frustrated when they make rookie mistakes, but I could certainly see that they each had excellent tools. Other prospects like Pedroia I thought were over-rated. I thought Pedroia had the possibility of being a solid starter (Loretta-like) for 4-5 years. Did I dislike him? No. I always liked Moss who I followed since 2004 or 5. I get annoyed when a kid is brought up in crucial situations long before he is ready. That shows a lack of preparedness by the FO. I like the kid. I root for the kid,but it is unfair to expect the kid to perform at that level without proper preparation and experience. So, again, I don't know what you are talking about? Was I supposed to get all giddy about Reddick? I saw him in ST and saw that he had plus arm, speed and bat, but he was not ready. We should have had a seasoned bench guy to step in. In his first big game, Reddick K'd 4 times. He was completely overmatched. It was unfair to the kid and the team.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz is the best prospect this team has had in a long time. His value to other teams is hith. There's reason to believe he coudl be used to land someone like Felix Hernandez or Adrian Gonzalez (signed to long deal), both of whom would provide this team a similarily longterm answer at key positions. Halladay is a short term solution who costs not only $15m, but also the best prospects in the system in Buchholz + Bard + ???.

I guess the FO is so confident in Buchholz that they felt it was necessary to acquire Paul Byrd?

[Rdsxmbnt]

I guess the FO is so confident in Buchholz that they felt it was necessary to acquire Paul Byrd?

 

Maybe they aren't confident in Penny or Smoltz?

[a700hitter]

Maybe they aren't confident in Penny or Smoltz?

Buchholz would be the guy that goes back to the minors. He hasn't shown anything to keep him here. I dread his Saturday start. I'm praying for heavy rain.

[Dipre]

Buchholz would be the guy that goes back to the minors. He hasn't shown anything to keep him here. I dread his Saturday start. I'm praying for heavy rain.

 

Tired.

 

Your act is.

 

I don't mean to be a dick or anything, but seriously dude.

[BoSox21]

I think the Byrd signing means there's now an official timetable for how long left Smoltz has to show something or they're having less and less confidence Dice-K or Wakefield will be back this year

[Rdsxmbnt]

Buchholz would be the guy that goes back to the minors. He hasn't shown anything to keep him here. I dread his Saturday start. I'm praying for heavy rain.

 

Buchholz has had two pretty solid starts and a pair of stinkers, which is more than I can say about Smoltz.

[CrespoBlows]

Buchholz has had two pretty solid starts and a pair of stinkers' date=' which is more than I can say about Smoltz.[/quote']

 

Which one of his starts was solid?

[redsoxrules]

Buchholz has had two pretty solid starts and a pair of stinkers' date=' which is more than I can say about Smoltz.[/quote']

 

2 solid starts? explain

[Dipre]

Which one of his starts was solid?

 

First start.

 

@ Tor 5.2 IP 1 ER 3K.

[CrespoBlows]

First start.

 

@ Tor 5.2 IP 1 ER 3K.

 

3 BB

[BoSox21]

which is what made it solid as opposed to great

[Keeper]

King Felix would have been a perfect fit. Ideally, you'd like at least three reliable starters come playoff time. But the '01 Diamondbacks proved you can win it all with two reliable starters and Miguel Batista. Lester and Beckett aren't Schilling and Johnson, but they've shown they can elevate their game during the postseason. Now, all the Sox need is someone to emerge to become their Miguel Batista.

[a700hitter]

Tired.

 

Your act is.

 

I don't mean to be a dick or anything, but seriously dude.

Then don't be a dick. Are you looking forward to Buchholz start against the Yankees? Have his starts this season given you reason for optimism. The kid has talent. When he is on, his changeup is extremely deceptive to the batter, but he still has some major issues to work out at the major league level before he should be in the rotation. In the olden days, a pitcher worked out those issues in the major league bullpen, which is probably where he belongs. They are throwing him to the wolves by handing him the ball every 5th day. Is there something tired about that opinion.

 

BTW You never took my bet for the case of El Presidente. Before Drew tweaked his groin or vagina or whatever, you predicted that the Sox would DL Lowell. I responded that Drew would see the DL before Lowell and wagered a case of your favorite beer. I never heard from you about it.

[BSN07]

I think Buchholz will get a few more starts before he might be sent to the BP. They might give him until the rosters expand. Then the Sox should be getting Dice-K,Wake(probably before then), Bowden, Byrd to all make some Septemeber starts.

[Keeper]

In the olden days' date=' a pitcher worked out those issues in the major league bullpen, which is probably where he belongs.[/quote']

 

If the Sox weren't so desperate to find another reliable starter, I would agree with this move 100%.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Which one of his starts was solid?

 

First one vs. TOR and 3rd one vs. OAK

[Dipre]

Then don't be a dick. Are you looking forward to Buchholz start against the Yankees? Have his starts this season given you reason for optimism. The kid has talent. When he is on, his changeup is extremely deceptive to the batter, but he still has some major issues to work out at the major league level before he should be in the rotation. In the olden days, a pitcher worked out those issues in the major league bullpen, which is probably where he belongs. They are throwing him to the wolves by handing him the ball every 5th day. Is there something tired about that opinion.

 

BTW You never took my bet for the case of El Presidente. Before Drew tweaked his groin or vagina or whatever, you predicted that the Sox would DL Lowell. I responded that Drew would see the DL before Lowell and wagered a case of your favorite beer. I never heard from you about it.

 

Well seems like i owe you some Presidente.

 

Drat.

[a700hitter]

Well seems like i owe you some Presidente.

 

Drat.

Not yet. Drew isn't on the DL is he?

[a700hitter]

First one vs. TOR and 3rd one vs. OAK

9 hits and 2 BBs in 5.2 inn. Not so good. That's a WHIP of almost 2.

[Dipre]

Not yet. Drew isn't on the DL is he?

 

Drew hits the DL in 5....4...3....2...1......

[a700hitter]

Drew hits the DL in 5....4...3....2...1......

Damn! And you think that I am pessimistic.

[Dipre]

Damn! And you think that I am pessimistic.

 

Lol don't go there, Mr. Swallowed his tongue 'cause Rocco went on the DL.

[a700hitter]

Lol don't go there' date=' Mr. Swallowed his tongue 'cause Rocco went on the DL.[/quote']There worst OF that I ever saw assembled by the Red Sox was Daubach LF Pride CF and Frye RF.

 

I had tickets for that game. When I saw the lineup, all I could do was shake my head. I said, we've come a long way from Rice, Lynn, and Evans with Yaz and Carbo and Benitez.

 

Daubach was a 1B, Frye a second baseman and the only real OFer who was responsible for directing traffic was Pride and he was deaf. There could have been a real trainwreck that night.