Dice K hitting a wall

[jacksonianmarch]

There must be something to this pitcher's adjustment from Japan to america. About one week ago, following DiceK's previous debachle, he was quoted as being "exhausted mentally and physically". Then, just to show that he wasnt joking, he throws his shortest and worst outing to date. DiceK is in a free fall, and it may not be one of those "spells" that guys like Pettitte and Wang have gone through and then righted. This looks like it is exactly what he said it was, sheer exhaustion. If this continues, the sox will be going into the playoffs with one of their biggest advatages being neutralized, the depth and effectiveness of their playoff rotation. Should be interesting to see if he rights the ship, but this guy looks very much like Javy Vazquez circa 04.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

There must be something to this pitcher's adjustment from Japan to america. About one week ago' date=' following DiceK's previous debachle, he was quoted as being "exhausted mentally and physically". Then, just to show that he wasnt joking, he throws his shortest and worst outing to date. DiceK is in a free fall, and it may not be one of those "spells" that guys like Pettitte and Wang have gone through and then righted. This looks like it is exactly what he said it was, sheer exhaustion. If this continues, the sox will be going into the playoffs with one of their biggest advatages being neutralized, the depth and effectiveness of their playoff rotation. Should be interesting to see if he rights the ship, but this guy looks very much like Javy Vazquez circa 04.[/quote']

 

He'll be alright. He is a smart pitcher who will make the proper adjustments. I'd still rather have him over Clemens and Mussina. Between Beckett, Schilling, Wakefield, and Matsuzaka...I'm sure a few of them can get hot going into October...it's just up to Francona to make the right choices and matchups. I still think we will see plenty of Buchholz before this season comes to an end.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Skip his next start and hope he can get back on track after that.

[a700hitter]

Go to a 6 man rotation until the end of the season to give all the starters more recovery time and help refresh their arms. Also, it will help management decide what it wants to do with Bucholz by getting more of a look at him.

[ORS]

Go to a 6 man rotation until the end of the season to give all the starters more recovery time and help refresh their arms. Also' date=' it will help management decide what it wants to do with Bucholz by getting more of a look at him.[/quote']

This is the answer, IMO.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Go to a 6 man rotation until the end of the season to give all the starters more recovery time and help refresh their arms. Also' date=' it will help management decide what it wants to do with Bucholz by getting more of a look at him.[/quote']

 

I'm going to agree as well. A 6 man rotation makes too much sense at this point.

[mar_022]

i think lots of Dice-K's problems stem from his pitch selection. Whether or not he's exhausted only he knows, but i dont think he's been changing speeds enough lately and this has contributed to him getting shelled. I remember watching WBC highlights of his nasty changeup, but we haven't seen much of it all year, especially lately. His splitter and change have the ability to handcuff hitters, and i think if he utilizes these more he'll get hitters off balance and regain his edge. I do also agree completely with the 6 man rotation, so long as buchholz doesn't get overworked, maybe he/tavarez could alternate the 6th spot for the remainder of the season

[jacksonianmarch]

The true indicator of a pitcher being tired goes back to number one. If he is locating his fastball like he typically does and has similar velocity to his typicaly speed, then you know he isnt tired. And I dont think there is anyone out there who will say that his location or velocity have been normal over the past 3 weeks. The guy is tired. He is not used to throwing this often or this deep into a season. He typically threw every 6th day for 140 games in Japan. Over here, he is throwing every 5th for 162 and playoffs. This is likely something he will adjust to over his career, but right now the guy is absolutely spent. And this may not be something he recovers from this season.

[a700hitter]

I'm going to agree as well. A 6 man rotation makes too much sense at this point.

But it doesn't seem that management is even considering this, and that really puzzles me.

[Chris Darling]

I am a little confused why he is getting run down like this, in Japan leagues, don't they pitch many more innings, throw many more pitches, and play many more games? Or so I thought I heard somewhere before?

 

Sorry not a genius when it comes to sports in other country's

[VA Sox Fan]

I am a little confused why he is getting run down like this, in Japan leagues, don't they pitch many more innings, throw many more pitches, and play many more games? Or so I thought I heard somewhere before?

 

Sorry not a genius when it comes to sports in other country's

 

In Japan, his season would be over by now. They have a 6 man rotation. Play less games and throw less innings.

 

He says he's not tired just not locating well. Ferrell really needs to work with him or we could be screwed.

[jacksonianmarch]

it really is going to be interesting to see. He has imploded something awful of late, and I think even the most staunch of sox fans has to question how he will fare in October.

[example1]

it really is going to be interesting to see. He has imploded something awful of late' date=' and I think even the most staunch of sox fans has to question how he will fare in October.[/quote']

 

Yes, we have to question how all of our pitchers will do in October Jacksonian, that's part of playoff baseball. It COULD be that he's hit a wall from which he cannot recover (like you suggested in post 1) but he could also get his s*** together and be effective. His fastball command has looked pretty bad, which to me indicates that he's just not feeling it right now. But he's a pitcher. In a week or two he could be feeling much better and do what he does very well automatically.

 

All in all, I don't rely on him to win the WS for this team. He is an acquisition for 6 years and this team will be good and should contend for 6 years. They should rest him a bit, allow him to miss his next start and then do one shortish start and a full start at the end of the season (if there's time for 3 turns through the rotation... I'm sure there is). He has now gained a sense of how long the MLB season is and how important conditioning and pacing workload has been this year. After the roller-coaster he's been on the past 365 days I give him an EASY pass and look forward to seeing what he can do next year and in big games down the stretch.

 

Even if his season hasn't been perfect, I see a lot of promise. He was EASILY the best pitcher on the market last year and I'm glad we're not talking about a Yankees team with Pettitte, Wang, Matsuzaka and Clemens on it this year (yes, the Yankees still would have landed Clemens, IMO).

[a700hitter]

Yes, we have to question how all of our pitchers will do in October Jacksonian, that's part of playoff baseball. It COULD be that he's hit a wall from which he cannot recover (like you suggested in post 1) but he could also get his s*** together and be effective. His fastball command has looked pretty bad, which to me indicates that he's just not feeling it right now. But he's a pitcher. In a week or two he could be feeling much better and do what he does very well automatically.

 

All in all, I don't rely on him to win the WS for this team. He is an acquisition for 6 years and this team will be good and should contend for 6 years. They should rest him a bit, allow him to miss his next start and then do one shortish start and a full start at the end of the season (if there's time for 3 turns through the rotation... I'm sure there is). He has now gained a sense of how long the MLB season is and how important conditioning and pacing workload has been this year. After the roller-coaster he's been on the past 365 days I give him an EASY pass and look forward to seeing what he can do next year and in big games down the stretch.

 

Even if his season hasn't been perfect, I see a lot of promise. He was EASILY the best pitcher on the market last year and I'm glad we're not talking about a Yankees team with Pettitte, Wang, Matsuzaka and Clemens on it this year (yes, the Yankees still would have landed Clemens, IMO).

Right now we are concerned with the playoffs and winning a championship. Management has to be concerned about what his role will be in the post season. No one is thinking about whether this acquisition is a good one for next year or five years down the road, so there's no need to take up the FO banner yet. There will be time enough for that if he shits himself in the post season.

[ksushi]

Well, I wouldn't jump to say no one was thinking that, 700. Clearly there was going to be an adjustment peroid, and the FO has been tempering this acquisition since day one with the reminder that he is still a rookie and there is going to be adjustment. He clearly is a polished pitcher, and has a ton of promise, and I don't think this "exhaustion" is going to make him a non-factor in the playoffs, but this is obviously a rookie hitting a wall. The league made adjustments, and at this point in the season he is taxed physically and now having to face the league a 2nd time, it's become mentally taxing as well. It happens. I think this is a signing with more promise for the next five years rather than this one. I think, all things considered, this year has been a successful one for Dice-K with the sox. With that said, its still not over and no one knows that more than our little asian kawala (he does look like a kawala [sp?]). He'll build it back up for the playoffs, a competitor like him has to be thinking about that right about now.

[example1]

Right now we are concerned with the playoffs and winning a championship. Management has to be concerned about what his role will be in the post season. No one is thinking about whether this acquisition is a good one for next year or five years down the road' date=' so there's no need to take up the FO banner yet. [/b'] There will be time enough for that if he shits himself in the post season.

 

No one who is shortsighted is thinking about that. Sorry 700, I think you're wrong bud. The way this team will be run is with a view toward the future at all times. They simply aren't going to throw this guys arm off if he is ineffective and tired.

 

You have a history of having reactionary and impulsive comments about what to do with players and how immediate performance is a reflection on the FO's ability to put together a better team. Too many people were ready and willing to hang Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp and Dustin Pedroia (and Josh Beckett) when they started out slowly. They have all turned it around nicely.

 

Dice K's value will be determined in a few years. At this point, he was a great signing whether or not he is tired in the playoffs.

 

Again, the front office is thinking about how he will do in the future, given the 100+ million they invested in him for SIX (not 2/3 of one a700 but) SIX years.

[Gom]

I want to ask you guys something, since I haven't actually really seen him pitch of late [the only game I watched was his last outing, and that isn't much].

 

Is the league catching up to this guy, or is his velocity down/location off? I'm just curious.

[ORS]

From what I've seen, his location is off. He's grooving pitches right now. Straight down broadway.

[example1]

I want to ask you guys something' date=' since I haven't actually really seen him pitch of late [the only game I watched was his last outing, and that isn't much'].

 

Is the league catching up to this guy, or is his velocity down/location off? I'm just curious.

 

His location has definitely been off. His velocity has actually been pretty good, usually sitting around 92 with the ability to hit 94 once or twice a game. He isn't spotting the low-corner fastballs and his changeup has been non-existent. So, to me at least, he appears to be a fastball, curveball, slider pitcher, without enough heat to make the second two pitches unhittable because he can't command it anyway.

 

I think he is comfortably wild in general, and keeps hitters on their toes by occasionally uncorking one. Recently, he's had to use his breaking pitches to throw for "taking strikes" and his fastball as his aggressive pitch. WHen he's on he's using his breaking pitches both for "taking strikes" as well as for "in the dirt swing-and-miss strikes".

 

He has complained about the size of the ball, and I can see that being a problem that he can adjust to. Particularly with his changeup.

 

I think that next year the changeup and fastball will be his bread and butter, with his breaking pitches an array of nasty secondary stuff. NOTHING beats a good changeup and he has had a great one in the past.

 

Overall, I think there are some dominoes that will all fall into place at the same time:

 

By regaining command of his FB he will establish himself as around the plate.

This will encourage hitters to swing earlier against him, rather than watching the current slurry of breaking and fast balls for the first 4 pitches of the AB.

This will allow him to go later into games with more life on his stuff.

 

I think this is exactly what happened to Beckett this year. Add to this the morale boost you get from starting a season clean, statistically, and some simple changes could go a long way for the guy who is 5th in all of baseball in K/9 (2nd among righties) for pitchers over 160IP.

 

He has thrown nearly 400 more pitches than Josh Beckett in only 3 more innings.

[a700hitter]

Well' date=' I wouldn't jump to say no one was thinking that, 700. Clearly there was going to be an adjustment peroid, and the FO has been tempering this acquisition since day one with the reminder that he is still a rookie and there is going to be adjustment. He clearly is a polished pitcher, and has a ton of promise, and I don't think this "exhaustion" is going to make him a non-factor in the playoffs, but this is obviously a rookie hitting a wall. The league made adjustments, and at this point in the season he is taxed physically and now having to face the league a 2nd time, it's become mentally taxing as well. It happens. I think this is a signing with more promise for the next five years rather than this one. I think, all things considered, this year has been a successful one for Dice-K with the sox. With that said, its still not over and no one knows that more than our little asian kawala (he does look like a kawala [sp?']). He'll build it back up for the playoffs, a competitor like him has to be thinking about that right about now.

The guy is fiercely competitive and proud, and you can tell that he is very frustrated right now and probably more than a bit puzzled about getting back on track.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think this can partly be blamed on Francona for riding this guy into the ground in some cases. If they really wanted to treat him like a rookie, they never would have let him continuously surpass the 110 pitch mark and even make it up to the 133 pitch mark of earlier in the yr. And I do think this guy builds off this season and comes back stronger, but for this season alone, I see a lot of frustration and confusion in him. And that reminds me of when Javy Vazquez came to NY, lit s*** up early then fizzled late. And we all know how that ended.

[Mr Crunchy]

how can you treat a guy who has pitched at the pro level for over 5 years as a rookie

if his velocity was off you could take notice but it hasnt fallen at all

perhaps hes mentally exhausted??

its been a whirlwind 8 months for this guy and there isnt a soul in sports who had more pressure on him this summer from the boston fans perspective and what the japanese fans expected of him as well

remedy??

send him over to kneeland street for a blow job and a pitcher of sake and maybe let him miss a start.

i suspect hes just mentally cooked at this point

[BSN07]

He looks like Beckett last yr, and we know how that went...

[TheKilo]

He looks like Beckett last yr' date=' and we know how that went...[/quote']

 

No, Beckett was good in September last year.

[Rdsxmbnt]

eh he was ok in September, not as bad as Dicek has been, but his k-rate left a lot to be desired

[Rdsxmbnt]

Regarding Matsuzakas use, BP has a nifty pitcher abuse system.

 

Matsuzaka ranks 2nd in baseball in PAP (pitcher abuse points) behind Zambrano.

Zambrano at 113,010 Matsuzaka at 98,506 and then Halladay at 80,011 at which point the numbers drop off the table. For note a 0 PAP points are assigned for a start at 100 or fewer pitches and PAP = (PC-100)^3. For example a 120 outing is +8000 PAP, and as you can see Dicek is up near 100,000 so he has accumulated a ton of these starts.

 

At the beginning of the year I loved the idea that this guy was like superhuman compared to American pitchers and I'd always say to myself with a normal pitcher that 110 is the about the limit, but with DiceK I'd say let him get to 110 and see if he has another inning or two in him.

 

Already this season in two less IP he has thrown ~350 more pitches than he did in Japan. He does have experience in the 3500-4000 pitch range but there is going to be a dramatic difference between 06 and 07 for him and his command has become shotty and he is leaving fastballs over the plate.

 

I don't know what we can do at this point, he is human, comparitively to American pitchers I have a feeling he is going to always be among the more durable pitchers, but in his first season in the majors, eh, I think in hindsight we have made some mistakes for this year. It's really an unfortunate problem to have, Beckett/DiceK looked to be a filthy 1-2 in the playoffs and I'm not sure what a couple days of rest will do at this point. Best thing we can do is keep him on 5-6 days rest always for the remainder. He is a gamer, come playoff time I think he can put any regular season stuff by him and focus pitch by pitch, as of now DiceK is still my #2 SP.

[example1]

how can you treat a guy who has pitched at the pro level for over 5 years as a rookie

 

Wouldn't you treat a guy who had been pitching in the minors for 5 years as a rookie? They have pitched at the pro level for 5 years. I don't see your point.

 

if his velocity was off you could take notice but it hasnt fallen at all

perhaps hes mentally exhausted??

its been a whirlwind 8 months for this guy and there isnt a soul in sports who had more pressure on him this summer from the boston fans perspective and what the japanese fans expected of him as well

 

I think that's it. I think it's so easy to sometimes forget just how hard pitching is at this level. We're talking about a game of inches/centimeters here. Dice K is not a power pitcher necessarily. He has a good fastball, but his best stuff is precision and movement, a la Greg Maddox (obviously he hasn't had the career, but I won't respond to those who try to critique the comparison... hear me out). Watch an MLB game. They used to give "pretty points" for being able to hit the glove exactly where it was placed. 2 inches outside? It's still a strike because it hit the glove and the batter should have expanded the strike zone. That's just not the case anymore. Watching Dice K's starts in Japan, they seem much more of that aesthetic mindset. If a pitcher throws up and in and brushes the guy off the plate, then makes a nice slider on the outside corner he gets the call. Here, if it's a strike, it's a strike. Very little aesthetic about it. If Greg Maddux had the plate reduced by even an inch on either side he would undoubtedly struggle until he had refined his motion and release point. That's not the kind of work you can do in the middle of the season against the Blue Jays. It is a spring training/off season task.

 

How many at bats can you think of where Dice has made that "pretty pitch" and didn't get the call? I think there has been at least 1 or 2 a game. There was a HUGE one against the Yankees that he didn't get, where Abreu ended up getting on base and scoring in the first inning. He rightly gets dejected about these things, as it is the way he pitches.

 

Give him some time to figure out where that outside corner is, and what pitches he can use in those situations to get the called 3rd strike and I think he'll be fine.

 

remedy??

send him over to kneeland street for a blow job and a pitcher of sake and maybe let him miss a start.

i suspect hes just mentally cooked at this point

 

I think he's mentally cooked at this point, and I see nothing wrong with it. Talk about a rookie experience and asking about why he's considered a rookie... not only has he had to come into the league for the first time (that makes him a rookie), unlike other rookies who are allowed to lie under the surface and either succeed or fail and have the long-term reassurance from the club, DiceK has had one of--if not THE--most publicized rookie entrance in history (aside, probably, from Jackie Robinson). The media swarm, the expectations, etc., have been overwhelming.

 

All of us have seen those stretches from Dice when he is unhittable. Not unhittable in the "Daniel Cabrera gets on a hot streak" kind of way, but in the "this guy knows what he's doing and he's just making major league hitters look silly" kind of way. The first kind may or may not pan out. The second kind requires a ridiculous amount of skill and foreshadows a really, really positive future.

 

The Sox need Big-Schill to step up and pitch like a solid #2 pitcher so Dice can have some of the stress removed.

[Teddyballgame10]

700 I agree 6 man is the way to go right now.

[soxfan17881]

They showed an intersting stat on ESPN during the game tonight about how much better he does with 5 days rest as opposed to 4. Even better with 6. Bobby Valentine was interviewed and talked about how sometime pitchers in Japan get as much as 7 days between starts.

[Cocos Disciples]

Wasn't sharp last night either. Loaded the bases multiple times, Yankees just didn't capatilize early on. He could have allowed 5+ runs easily.