The Yankee Thread

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_new_york_yankees/

 

2007 ZiPS projections on the New York Yankees

1. Johnny Damon (149 games)- 177 Hits in 611 ABs, .290 avg, .353 obp, .437 slg, 31 Doubles, 4 Triples, 17 HRs, 88 RBIs, 112 Runs, 60 Walks, 82 Ks, 16 out of 22 SBs

2. Derek Jeter (152 games)- 189 Hits in 625 ABs, .302 avg, .378 obp, .440 slg, 34 Doubles, 2 Triples, 16 HRs, 92 RBIs, 111 Runs, 66 Walks, 110 Ks, 21 out of 25 SBs

3. Bobby Abreu (150 games)- 153 Hits in 534 ABs, .287 avg, .414 obp, .466 slg, 34 Doubles, Triple, 20 HRs, 98 RBIs, 89 Runs, 114 Walks, 122 Ks, 28 out of 35 SBs

4. Alex Rodriguez (156 games)- 169 Hits in 589 ABs, .287 avg, .387 obp, .497 slg, 26 Doubles, Triple, 32 HRs, 126 RBIs, 108 Runs, 88 Walks, 138 Ks, 16 out of 19 SBs

5. Hideki Matsui (133 games)- 146 Hits in 498 ABs, .293 avg, .367 obp, .474 slg, 31 Doubles, Triple, 19 HRs, 100 RBIs, 85 Runs, 58 Walks, 77 Ks, 1 out of 2 SBs

6. Robinson Cano (143 games)- 179 Hits in 568 ABs, .315 avg, .343 obp, .493 slg, 41 Doubles, 3 Triples, 18 HRs, 97 RBIs, 81 Runs, 24 Walks, 68 Ks, 3 out of 5 SBs

7. Jason Giambi (125 games)- 95 Hits in 394 ABs, .241 avg, .400 obp, .490 slg, 17 Doubles, 27 HRs, 97 RBIs, 70 Runs, 91 Walks, 97 Ks, SB

8. Jorge Posada (127 games)- 110 Hits in 417 ABs, .264 avg, .368 obp, .451 slg, 22 Doubles, Triple, 18 HRs, 84 RBIs, 59 Runs, 63 Walks, 93 Ks, 1 out of 2 SBs

**9. Andy Phillips (108 games)- 80 Hits in 326 ABs, .245 avg, .312 obp, .411 slg, 14 Doubles, 2 Triples, 12 HRs, 57 RBIs, 56 Runs, 29 Walks, 59 Ks, 2 out of 4 SBs

 

Bench players' stats are projected as a full season

Melky Cabrera (157 games)- 172 Hits in 584 ABs, .295 avg, .355 obp, .445 slg, 28 Doubles, 3 Triples, 18 HRs, 92 RBIs, 93 Runs, 55 Walks, 67 Ks, 12 out of 17 SBs

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

A-Rod with a SLG under 500?

[riverside sluggers]

Yea the ZiPS at times makes confusing projections. I just like looking up them up to see a point of view from an analyst on the upcoming season

 

Its odd that no member of the Yankees has a slf of over .500, and they expect RJ to pitch 220 innings with a 3.73 ERA.

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

Yeah the RJ projection is a little optimistic. They also have Melky slightly better then Damon. If A-Rod puts up those projections this year he will be killed.

[jacksonianmarch]

ZIPS is useless.

[Optimist]

Yea the ZiPS at times makes confusing projections.

 

Definitely.

 

Wang with only 12 wins? Pavano pitching more than 100 innings?:wtf:

[redsoxrules]

Definitely.

 

Wang with only 12 wins? Pavano pitching more than 100 innings?:wtf:

 

well i can see wang getting around 12 wins but i cant see pavano having 100 IP

[jacksonianmarch]

well i can see wang getting around 12 wins but i cant see pavano having 100 IP

 

lol, homah.

[TheKilo]

lol' date=' homah.[/quote']

 

Well Wang is due to revert to the mean a little bit, no? His peripherals don't suggest he was as good of a pitcher as he was last year.

 

Still, I think anything less than 15 wins for him with that lineup is a stretch.

[TheKilo]

Wang - Lucky?

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

I saw that a couple of days ago. Its nothing new. I figured that his lack of strike outs would come back to haunt him last year and it didnt. I doubt he posts a 3.60 ERA again but I think he will sit in the low 4 ERA range and still win 15+ because of this offense.

[TheKilo]

I saw that a couple of days ago. Its nothing new. I figured that his lack of strike outs would come back to haunt him last year and it didnt. I doubt he posts a 3.60 ERA again but I think he will sit in the low 4 ERA range and still win 15+ because of this offense.

 

I agree 100%...I think he'll be close to a 4.3 ERA and 15 wins.

 

I find it VERY doubtful he replicates his '06 season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wang is an anomaly to the conventional rule.

 

http://mvn.com/mlb-yankees

[TheKilo]

Wang is an anomaly to the conventional rule.

 

http://mvn.com/mlb-yankees

 

Wang's a solid pitcher. He performed a bit over his level last year, IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kilo, nice new av my friend.

 

In terms of Wang, I consider him in a completely new light. He is brilliant. I like to hear what other players think of a pitcher. For instance, after Irabu beat Detroit in his debut, the tigers hitters said that he has okay stuff, but is nothing better than average compared to the league. They were right. When asked about Wang, most players say he is like trying to hit a 95mph bowling ball. They cannot lift it. So why bother going for the K's? If nobody can lift the ball, he doesnt worry about getting hurt with the HR, so he pitches to contact. What I find interesting, is that he can rear back and get the K when he needs to.Half of his K's are with runners on, while he had 170 less ABs with runners on. He can get he K at times when he most needs it. But he is smart. A K guarantees at least 3 pitches to a hitter. While a groundout could be just one. Hence, he lasts a ton longer.

 

In essence, I expect over time for one of his secondary pitches to develop to a plus level. He has a nice changeup and a very nice slider, but they are so inconsistent that he ditches them when he gets to crunch time. I expect the K's to rise is what I am trying to say. He averaged nearly a K per inning as a minor leaguer until he learned the sinker at the end of 2004. So he has the stuff to miss bats. But when you have a 95+mph sinker that moves like crazy and is impossible to lift, why not just stick with it?

 

I understand those who are married to stats and say that everyone regresses to the mean. This was right about Chacon, Small, et al. But those guys have mediocre stuff who essentially got lucky in a short span of time. Wang obviously has amazing stuff. Players cannot lift it, players can hardly center it, so why change? He'll be just as good as that sinker is. If you see that thing biting at 95, then he will be just as good next yr, maybe better. If that sinker aint biting or loses speed, then he will get a lot worse.

[TheKilo]

Kilo, nice new av my friend.

 

In terms of Wang, I consider him in a completely new light. He is brilliant. I like to hear what other players think of a pitcher. For instance, after Irabu beat Detroit in his debut, the tigers hitters said that he has okay stuff, but is nothing better than average compared to the league. They were right. When asked about Wang, most players say he is like trying to hit a 95mph bowling ball. They cannot lift it. So why bother going for the K's? If nobody can lift the ball, he doesnt worry about getting hurt with the HR, so he pitches to contact. What I find interesting, is that he can rear back and get the K when he needs to.Half of his K's are with runners on, while he had 170 less ABs with runners on. He can get he K at times when he most needs it. But he is smart. A K guarantees at least 3 pitches to a hitter. While a groundout could be just one. Hence, he lasts a ton longer.

 

In essence, I expect over time for one of his secondary pitches to develop to a plus level. He has a nice changeup and a very nice slider, but they are so inconsistent that he ditches them when he gets to crunch time. I expect the K's to rise is what I am trying to say. He averaged nearly a K per inning as a minor leaguer until he learned the sinker at the end of 2004. So he has the stuff to miss bats. But when you have a 95+mph sinker that moves like crazy and is impossible to lift, why not just stick with it?

 

I understand those who are married to stats and say that everyone regresses to the mean. This was right about Chacon, Small, et al. But those guys have mediocre stuff who essentially got lucky in a short span of time. Wang obviously has amazing stuff. Players cannot lift it, players can hardly center it, so why change? He'll be just as good as that sinker is. If you see that thing biting at 95, then he will be just as good next yr, maybe better. If that sinker aint biting or loses speed, then he will get a lot worse.

 

 

Are there PECOTA/ZiPS projections for Wang this year yet?

[jacksonianmarch]

Are there PECOTA/ZiPS projections for Wang this year yet?

 

ZIPS did not do him justice. He was listed as having a high 4's era on ZIPs. I dont see it. I'll go on record as saying Wang will win 15+ games and have a sub 4 era. I'll take heat if I am wrong, but I think this guy can keep the ace seat warm until Hughes gets his big league legs under him.

[Gom]

The thing about Wang is that he has that pitch. A signature pitch that makes him very difficult to hit. Like Rivera's cutter [ok, nowhere near that good], Hoffman's changeup, etc., he will be one to actually stay ahead of the curve and more than likely improve. He got better as the season went on, not the other way around.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hey, this Wang guy is pretty good, eh? Nobody seemed to want to give him his due. But I stuck by him and the guy is throwing like a goddamn ace.

[redsoxrules]

Hey' date=' this Wang guy is pretty good, eh? Nobody seemed to want to give him his due. But I stuck by him and the guy is throwing like a goddamn ace.[/quote']

 

he still sucks againts the red sox

[a700hitter]

Hey' date=' this Wang guy is pretty good, eh? Nobody seemed to want to give him his due. But I stuck by him and the guy is throwing like a goddamn ace.[/quote']His consistency impresses me more than his stuff. He never seems to have a game where he loses his release point for an inning or two resulting in him leaving his pitches up.

[schillingouttheks]

he still sucks againts the red sox

 

Yeah, it's important to beat your rivals. However, if I had a choice, I would go with consistency against the rest of baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

he still sucks againts the red sox

 

I do believe he beat you once already. The sox are patient with him.

[redsoxrules]

I do believe he beat you once already. The sox are patient with him.

 

wins and loss is the worst way to determin a good pitcher

 

wang VS boston this year 1.72 WHIP, amazingly his ERA is only 4.50 againts then

[yankees228]

I do believe he beat you once already. The sox are patient with him.

 

Make that twice this year. However, redsoxrules is right, W/L is not the best way to measure a pitcher's success. But, you have to keep in mind, in those starts he's done enough to keep them in the game and let the offense take over.

 

On top of that, what he does against the rest of baseball is more important than what he does against one team.

[yankees228]

wins and loss is the worst way to determin a good pitcher

 

wang VS boston this year 1.72 WHIP, amazingly his ERA is only 4.50 againts then

 

Although that is a particularly high WHIP, and higher than Wang's usually is, he is always going to give up a great deal of base runners (although with the rate he has begun to strike out batters lately, that number will go down). To make up for the amount of runners he lets get on base, he gets a lot of double plays.

[riverside sluggers]

Hey' date=' this Wang guy is pretty good, eh? Nobody seemed to want to give him his due. But I stuck by him and the guy is throwing like a goddamn ace.[/quote']

 

Id say Pettitte is the ace, its just run support is foreign is to him

[jacksonianmarch]

Make that twice this year. However, redsoxrules is right, W/L is not the best way to measure a pitcher's success. But, you have to keep in mind, in those starts he's done enough to keep them in the game and let the offense take over.

 

On top of that, what he does against the rest of baseball is more important than what he does against one team.

 

and I have a feeling that he will eventually get better against the sox. There is a reason why Wang has started to show flashes of K potential. Thats because his slider and changeup are improving. If he gets those to be consistent and can trust them on a day to day basis, he will be even better. BTW, that change to Reyes last night that made him fall over, was amazing.

[jacksonianmarch]

Id say Pettitte is the ace' date=' its just run support is foreign is to him[/quote']

 

they both are pitching like aces.

 

BTW, Wang is averaging 7.1IP per start. Guy is nice to have back.