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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    If the FO thinks he won't return until September, then we find a replacement. But I haven't seen anything in that regard yet.
  2. JoeBrady
    Spot-on correct. Keeping or trading good pitching prospects because you are hoping they become Lester, or fear they will become Gabbard, is silly, imo. No one knows. The best approach is to put a future value on them, and trade them on that basis. If PT thinks Early is a #2, and we think his ceiling is a #3, then we trade him. If we think Tolle will be a #2, and Cincy pegs as a #3/4, then we don't trade him.
  3. JoeBrady
    Not what Lester was as a prospect, or not what Lester became as a pro? Early has clearly out-performed Lester as a 1st year pro.
  4. JoeBrady
    I've heard you can do better as injuries progress because what's left isn't enough to cause you pain. In Lackey's 2011 year with the RS, he had some good stretches. 15 ERs in his first two starts, 3 ERS in his next three starts. 17 ERs in his next two starts.
  5. JoeBrady
    He certainly isn't as good as Anthony. But my +/- theory says that we got a .777 out of 3B last year. B-R projects a .729 from Mayer. So, theoretically, we lose 48 points. FG projects a .723, so that would be a loss of 54 points. Obviously, any projection could be higher or lower, but when averaging the +/- across 9 positions, we won't be off by a material amount.
  6. JoeBrady
    You have to include Anthony's bat in there.
  7. JoeBrady
    I'd be shocked if they took it. I'm not a fan of Romero, and Crawford is iffy with his short history and injuries. Duran is a star, and Tolle has promise. But Greene is a true #1. He had a 59/12 K/W in 48 IPs in Aug-Sep. A little more consistency and a few more IPs, and he'll be one of the top-10 in BB.
  8. JoeBrady
    I like OPSa a whole lot more than ERA. It's much more consistent.
  9. JoeBrady
    We already have a 2-WAR MI in Romy, and he did that in only 315 ABs. And Romy & Hamilton combined for 3 WAR in only 492 ABs. And for only $23,000,000 less than X makes. FWIW, I wanted him back also. But even the $156M/6 I was thinking about at the time, seemed problematic.
  10. JoeBrady
    IMO, his flexibility means no Bregman or Alonso. Being righty and able to play 3rd, that means you can start Mayer at 3rd and not have to worry against the really tough lefties. And not have to worry about whether Casas will be helthy enough to be our starting 1B in April. It's also backup insurance for Story, since we could move Oka to 3rd and Mayer to SS, should something happen to Story.
  11. JoeBrady
    Third Baseman Ketel Marte It distresses me when writers make an error on the first word they write.
  12. JoeBrady
    If you're just talking making up PAs, the Yoshida and Casas will add 700-800 PAs. There's another way to look at this. Go position and just or subtract from the 2026v2025 totals. Just keeping it real simple; Catcher E 1B +100 2B E SS E 3B -50 OF + DH E Keep in mind that we are not replacing Bregman with Mayer. We are replacing our 2025 3B OPS of .777 with Mayer's B-R projected .729. And replacing our 1B's .691 with Casas' .791.
  13. JoeBrady
    Odd signing, imo. If you're going to go for ~ $45M/3 CBT, you might as well step up $80M/4 for DIaz. And I like Williams well enough, but he feels a lot riskier than Diaz.
  14. JoeBrady
    Why question is (and almost always is), why is KC gifting us a prize like Ragans? He missed three months, so I have to be skeptical.
  15. JoeBrady
    That's the money stat. The more I think about it, the more hesitant I am to trade for another SP unless it is a top-tier #2 or better, with control. 2 out of 3 between Early, Sandoval & Tolle should be good. That makes might expectations for the marginal improvement to be higher. Basically, if Steamer is projecting a 2.8 for Lodolo, who I like, how much do we want to pay to have him bounce out Sandy, Early and/or Tolle?
  16. JoeBrady
    Past the defensive ratings, the biggest issues are 1) 2nd base, where we don't really have anyone, and 2) Casas' ABs. With Casas, I can live with a 115 wRC+, but only if he is ready in April. With 2nd, if we go over the top somewhere else, I could live with a platoon of Romy/Hammy, but it is also the easiest place to grab an upgrade. I'm starting to warm up to the idea of signing Okamoto. We have an automatic 1B regardless of Casas' health. A good backup for 3B if we want to rest Mayer against tough lefties. If Mayer gets hurt, Oka slides to 3rd. If Story gets hurt, Mayer slides to SS, and Oka to 3rd. And he should be a good righty bat, which almost has to help.
  17. JoeBrady
    Some of those numbers are so badly constructed, it is impossible to use them for a discussion. Anthony had 8 DRS in only 290 IPs and they tagged him with a -8.7 defensively, simultaneously making him one of the best and one of the worst fielders in BB. Abreu is an elite glove as well with no discussion necessary, but they have him tagged as -4.2. Overall, the RS was easily the best DRS last year with +52, while TX (#2) was +36. But Abreu, Duran, Ceddanne and Anthony combine for a -9.6 according to Steamer. I'm pretty sure that's virtually impossible.
  18. JoeBrady
    Being a righty, ERA of less than 4.00 with 160 IPs, good against the ALE, leaves us with only 7 choices. The good news is that Bello had a 3.35, 162.2 IPs, is a righty, and has a 3.92 ERA against the ALE. So it appears that we already have a #2.
  19. JoeBrady
    #1. We rank ahead of NYY and TO all the way thru, basically because Crochet is easily #1, and our #2, he who shall not be named, is a good bit better than their #2's. There is also a bit of a weighing discrepancy. They have our #5 being Crawford, but with a 4.43. They have Early with a 3.83, but with 60 less IPs. Intuitively, that would make Early our #5. If they gave Early the 123 IPs that they credit Crawford with, then Early becomes the top #5.
  20. JoeBrady
    1-The contract was backloaded. 2-That's the way contracts work. You generally get more value earlier and less value later.
  21. JoeBrady
    It feels like something I'd have written in HS because I needed to write 500 words. If they mean strictly pitching, I doubt that TO is adding anything past Cease, and I'm guessing that the NYY are reasonably happy with their rotation. They're unlikely to pass us. If they are talking about overall talent, then we don't necessarily need another pitcher to keep them from passing us.
  22. JoeBrady
    Absolutely. I have some fear that he might not like Fenway, and some fear that he might be one year older, but very few pitchers come without question marks. TO just paid out $210M to someone with similar grades.
  23. JoeBrady
    Absolutely not, imo. And unless the Nats have lost faith in Gore, I'm not sure why they would trade him at this point.
  24. JoeBrady
    If the Red Sox remain quiet on the pitching front, they will fall behind quickly. How will we quickly fall behind? Wouldn't that require other teams to quickly pass us? Which teams are you projecting to add a lot of pitching?
  25. JoeBrady
    According to the numbers, we have the best #1 (5.6), we have the best 1-2 (9.5), the best 1-3 (11.5), and the best 1-4 (13.2).
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