drewski6

Am I wasting time if I am putting together trade packages for my favorite players in baseball even if I know they arent going to happen? That being said, I know I went too far yesterday pounding the table all day on why we need Schwarber and Corbin Carroll.

I agree, I dont think JH is as micromanagey as people seem to think. THe cheapest thing he did was hire Bloom, but Bloom kind of had a glow-up. Because those years were a bit frustrating, but he did rebuild the farm. And I cant hate JH for wanting a change of direction after DD. The DD years were great, but sometimes its just time to change course (similar to when we had to move on from Tito or even Bill B). But I think a lot of the patience and not spending and sititng around waiting on prospects to develop was Bloom over JH And I think he hired Breslow because nobody else would take the job, haha. Breslow was like our 6th choice. But I can hate JH for reasons that Billey Eilish so elegantly put (which I do) and I can hate him for buying the pittsburgh f'ing penguins (which i do x2)

I fell back to 1-4 and Crochet. Ill fall back even further to 1-4 + Crochet + 3 strong BP pitchers.

Theres middle ground between: A) Not wanting a team with holes at the ML level to use our best trade chip for prospects when we've had a frustrating last half-decade and finally look like we are turning a corner and B) Not valuing prospects. We've been stuck in mediocrity for 7 years while we waited patiently for the next core to come together, but now its time to compete.

He (Tolle) nees a circle change, splitter, forkball, or a 12-6 uncle Charlie Hammner. Something breaking eitehr down or arm side. Or a sinker. Theres a reason why so many left starters throw sinkers and 2-seams. Because they arent way more effective vs same sided hitters as sliders, sweepers, cutters Hes a lefty with a righty aresnal, and its currently preventing him from taking the next step. But one thing I overlooked until right now, being on the major league roster (vs AAA) increases the chances that Bello will teach him a 2 seamer/sinker (does bello throw a 2 seamer or a sinker because some nights it looks like a 2 seamer and some nights a sinker and sometimes it looks like he throws both, and i cant figure it out) but what i do know - teach it to tolle.

I disagree hes maxed at minor league level. He badly needs better secondaries. I also disagree with the notion that 50 innings at MLB will continue to development but 180 innings at AAA wont. If anything , i think its the opposite, because outta the pen at MLB he would lean on his fastball and not need to (as much) develop the secondaries vs at AAA he can hyper focus at developing his secondaries. All his "better" secondaries have horizontal glove side movement (sweeper, slider, cutter) so he could very much stand to benefit from a splitter (straight down) or a circle change (inverse, arm-side movement) to help vs righties. This is a situation where being a lefty actually works against him, cuz its very hard to throw left-to-right breaking pitches (from pitcher perspective) against righties and be consistently effective. A lot of that stuff is to play off other stuff (e.g. a backfoot slider, or an "running in on your hands" broken bat cutter). The reason you would put him a pen is because he can at present, probably already get lefties out with ease. But sweepers and sliders and cutters are dangerous to righties from a lefty. He doesnt have the command (yet) to back door em, which hed need to do. Thers only so many back foot sliders you can throw before major leaguers start crushing em. Thtas a diminishing return pitch (the back foot slider, so coming in on a righty), and with the cutter, he'd have to be maddux or Mariano level to feature a cutter vs a righty as a lefty. If he did master the cutter though, he'd lead the league in complete games (1 pitch broken bat ground outs , all day - which is an exciting possibility)

Giving away Bernie (we did we didnt trade him becaus the guy we got is eligible for rule 5 and wont get protected, vs trading for a guy who is not yet eligible) The more I looked into it, the more fine with it I was. I like most rooted for Bernadonuts makes me gonuts. But hes 33 and his peripherals did fall off a cliff last year and we needed the 40 man roster spot. Initially surprising cast-off that gets less surprising the more you look into it. I hope he wins his arbitration case and gets 1.2M vs 1M, and I hope he pitches well enough to get a decent arb 2 raise next year. Cuz I wanna see him make his nut.

Thats another good example of old-school philosphies that I still carry. No walkers outta the pen. That and theres value in a designated pinch runner. But Im completely over a lot of old-school philosophies like "Ks are the worst, and need to be minimized" and "platoon players are fatally flawed"

Just teach Tolle a splitter. Dudes a giant, I assume he has mitts for hands.

100% agree. But I dont think they START the year with Tolle in the pen. I think if there is an injury at some point in the year to the pen (or multiple) and Tolle is starting at AAA, he is very likely to enter the MLB pen at that point But I think we'll start the year with a very good pen and they'll (to start the year) prefer to keep Tolle stretched out as their #6 or #7 starter they can park in AAA until they need him because you know as well as I there will be 13 different dudes who start a game for us next year. I also think Tolle can win a job in the MLB rotation with a strong offseason and spring.

Yes trends matter, and for funsies, show me first half 2025 vs second half 2025 on Cedannes WAR and oWAR (dont care which source) With the 3 strikes and your out comment, I interpreted your comment to mean that its (practically) case closed, Duran will (almost assuredly) get traded and Cedanne (very likely )wont for 3 reasons: 1. Age, 2. Control, 3 Defense. And Im saying the reason why Duran is more likely than Cedanne (by a lot) to get traded (and I agree he is) is for one main reason, thats none of your 3 1. Trade Value Cedanne is not getting you Lodolo, for example.

REgegarding the first bold, my favorite Red Sox is Crochet, but I dont think I have an anti Cedanne bias. I would like Cedanne a lot more if we signed Schwarber and traded for Marte. As I said , there are plenty of teams that I can envision that have Cedanne in CF that I would be over the moon about. Ive seen you talking about trading Duran for relief pitcher and prospects, talking about getting bregman as your big signing and now you are talking about trading abreu AND Duran. And in my opinion (and I respect you a lot) but in my opinion, you are going a bit too far with underemphasizing the offensive and willingness to subtract for it. Im starting to think that your dream team is: RA Bregman Story Yoshida Romy Campbell Mayer Romy Cedanne And I think you are too comfy with this snoozefest and sub .500 team. And I dont think its my bias that leads me to believe that if thats the team, than 2026 is gonna STINK. But I will ackowledge that I am literally the worst planet on the planet to determine how much my own biases/preferences are influencing my opinions. Just like how anybody else on the planet is the least qualified person to speak to whether or not they are biased (theres an old saying that I love that goes: "thing about losing your mind is...you are always the last one to know") . Not to imply either of us are crazy Regarding your second bold, we were on the same page, and I cheered from afar when you joined my chorus. Which was just get Bregman and figure out the D. WE had missed on a few targets that people wanted, sometimes for the better (monty, teoscar hernandez) and sometimes not (Soto), and it felt like Bregman was one of the few impact players still there. And I was like just freaking grab him and figure out the D. I honestly think that had Devers shoulder been 100%, Devers would have played 3b some and DH some, Bregman would have played 3b some and Bregman would have played 2b some. I think that Bregmans versatility was one of the reasons why they signed him , and they didnt sign him 100% determiend that he was going to be a full time 3B going forward. I think they put value that he could have been because they knew Devers was a butcher and likely to get hurt in the field, and I think they loved the fact that Bregman could be a full time 3b and it was a high possibility, but I dont think it was get bregman and make him the 3b. I dont think positions are this rigid in 2025. I think one position players are becoming more and more rare.

You gave three reasons and missed the main one. Duran is better than Cedanne and will return more in a package than Cedanne, who is a borderline bench player if he hits like he did second half of last year (even with his awesome D). You guys underemphasize hitting. Its #1. If Im getting similar packages for Duran and Cedanne, bye bye Cedanne. Theres a reson his BTV is like 50 and Durans is like 70 despite a big gap in years of control favorring Cedanne. Hes not as good overall as you think, Speaking my favorite language (video game rankings) Cedanne is a 99 defender, and a 74 OVR player Duran is a 71 defender, and an 82 OVR player

Rafaela is an A++ defender and even with that , he is the worst outfielder (taking offense and defense into account) of the 3. Hes a cold streak away from being a fourth outfielder. Why move Cedanne instead of Duran when that would weaken our D? Because the impact of weakening your D is much less than the impact of weakening your hitting. THis is why oWAR is more correlated with WAR than dWAR Hitting (50%) = ptiching (40%) + defense (10%) That being said, there are plenty of teams that I can envision in 2025 that have Cedanne in CF and one of Abreu/Duran traded that would have me excited. Im not saying trade Cedanne over one of the corners, jsut saying its not as unlikely as you old-school folks (no offense) think. The emphasis on D is going down around the league, not up. The trend is maximizing offense, which is why defensive versatility is so popular right now. You wanna be able to shuffle your d around to be able to always have your best bats in there without having an atrocious d (which granted, we've had). But its about being adequate on D, not putting it first. And also, even if we flashback 10 years to when D was more emphasized (vs today), even then a lot of the chasing the D was small market teams that couldnt afford to buy a bat to put there, but could afford to put an all D no bat there because they couldnt spend like us. And sure, if you are going cheap at a position, an all D no O player can be very useful. But its not because the all D no O player helps you win more. There is a reason why Durnas WAR is higher than Cedannes when theyve played very close to the same amount of games. Not saying I would trade Cedanne before I traded Duran. Just saying that Cedanne is not as good of a ballplayer, even when you take his great D into account. People love watching cedanne's D, as do I, and Im not looking to move him. But Im not holding him at all costs and with your ranking you are literally saying that YOshida/Campbell, Cedanne, Anthony OF is more likely than Anthony/Duran, Duran/Anthony, Abreu and I think thats your own defense bias (again, no offense). Not trying to be stubborn, all Im really saying to you and Notin is that the bottom two of the four likelihoods are certainly the bottom 2 in likelihood, but I think your #3 is here is significantly less likely than your #4 3. Trade Duran & Abreu 4. Trade Rafaela (maybe with Campbell not Garcia)

I get why you would think that on Tolle because his fastball is more MLB ready than his secondaries, and you can be more fastball reliant out of the pen. But the argument against is Tolle's body. That body can handle the rigors of starting pitching without breaking down, and thats not exactly something that grows on trees. If the pen needs the help, I can see Tolle entering to help it. But I think they start with Tolle as a starter either in MLB or AAA cuz he's 6'6 with a man body. I think its more likely they put someone wiry in the pen.

No, devers got hurt and wasnt healing. The plan was to have devers keep butchering at 3b. They are more likely to get an offer they cant refuse on Cedanne than on abreu. The chance they trade cedanne is higher than you think, also - the chance cedanne plays a fair amount of infield this year is higher than you think I do agree that trading one of duran/abreu + one of campbell / Garcia is higher than the chance of trading or moving Cedanne. But I would say that the chance that Cedanne is not the full time CF for the red sox next year is unlikely, but not very unlikely OVer the last 2 years, Durans WAR/game played is 96% higher than Cedannes. So hes been twice as good (and thats NOT Duran has been twice as good offensively, thats taking offense and defense into account) But but but but deeeeefense is a yesteryear argument and sox are new school.

Of the 4 big league OF'ers, heres how i rank order of likelihood 1, Trade ONE of Duran / Abreu 2. Trade one of Duran / Abreu and also trade cedanne 3. play cedanne at infield 4. Trade both Duran and Abreu

No way they trade both corner outfielders. If they trade 2 outfielders, one will be cedanne. Cedanne might even be the first one to go, but they prob like that he can play infield.

Quite an eventful walk!

I was having fun, I dont actually think we'll get one of my favorite players in Corbin Carroll, even though I can make a better argument than you think about why Cedanne + Roman for CC actually works for both teams, but if I start pounding the table on any trade involving RA being sent, Ill turn myself into a villain here. And Im not trying to heel turn at the moment (my character isnt stale yet, and yes I watch too much wrestling). Honestly, though, the biggest issue with your plan is that if they trade for Ryan, theyll prob extend him vs keep him cheap for 2 years. But with 2 years left on his deal , might push down the AAV on an extension.

Give this guy the Fenway replica!

I can live with Duran in CF, but its not ideal because he has lapses in focus and more impactfully, the arm is weak for CF (but fine for LF). Im less against it than some, but fully healthy I dont think it makes much sense. If Story/Mayer pick up injuries, it starts making sense to move Cedanne to infield because I think hed be a plus-plus defender at infield even if he wasnt last year and our corner OF depth is better than our CF depth and our inf depth (at present). Of course, it depends a lot on who is on our 40 man when/if injuries cause some shuffling and of course it also matters who survives the "an OF is getting traded" rumors/likelihood. Its over 50% (my opinion) that one of Duran, Cedanne, Abreu gets traded.

If you have two strikes and the pitch is on the outer half, gotta go oppo there. Good stuff. Maybe a disproportionate of his hits oppo are with 2 strikes because if less than 2 strikes, he takes a pitcher's pitch on the outer black and waits for something he can drive. Good stuff with this comment. Very few guys can pull and outer pick and still drive it (because you are "hooking the baseball' which causes the ball to hang in the air), so you have to be really really strong to still hit that hard or even hit a HR to pull side on an oppo pitch. Thats something only the strongest guys in the league can do. Im finding myself getting talked into Bo these last couple days. I agree with MVP that hed be a 1 for 1 replacement for Bregman.

underrated comment, good stuff

This type of stuff takes effort and adds value to being a member here, TY