Run differential = Runs Created - Runs allowed
Runs created = hitting + manufacturing (bunting, stealing, sacrificing)
Runs allowed = Pitching + Defense
Run differential = hitting + Manufacturing - (Pitching + Defense) , basic algebra:
Pitching + Defense = hitting + manufacturing.
When it comes to winnning the game, using all 4 elements above, what percentages would you assign (note: both sides have to equal 50%) because that is implied working under an assumption that "run differential rules" (which I am not disputing).
The other element is the crapshoot element. So I believe that because pitchers are more likely to get hurt (or fall apart or underperform or be effected by external factors), the return on pitching is not as stable as the return on hitting. So this further, in my eyes, makes it wise to build bat-first team.
However, Im more of a shade of gray guy than a black/white guy. So I understand that sometimes if you are drafting 12 overall and 8 hitters off board vs 3 pitchers you may go pitcher there. And I also want to acknowledge that top of the market for a stud hitter is higher than a stud pitcher.
I do not think pitching nor defense is irrelevant. I would say
Pitching (38%) + Defense (12%) = Hitting (43%) + manufacturing (7%). But I think the wisdom in building bats first vs pitching is more than the 43% vs 38% expressed above because I think pitching has a larger crapshoot element.
And I think everyone kind of knows the simplest and highest percentage chance one has (generally) to improve their club is through their hitting. This is why hitters make more, get drafted higher....
Now again, Im not a black/white guy so I acknowledge that if you have 1 good pitcher and 6 good hitters and the FA market is making pitching relatively more affordable , then it makes sense to swerve to pitching there. I understand that an all glove, no bat guy is cheaper than an all ba,t no glove guy, so you can get a defensive stud ss or cf on the cheap = sure that has budget saving value elsewhere.
I acknowledge all this stuff and dont believe that we shouldnt invest in pitching and defense, and I believe there is even a time and a place to prioritize pitching and defense over hitting (for example if you already have 5 very good hitters).
But this 2026 offense was a settle job, and that has been our biggest issue.