Hugh2

Well technically there is a window, but I have shelve with my server in front of it and it only looks outside to a 20X20 courtyard in the middle of a big industrial building so I don't think that counts. There is nothing wrong with Thaiss, I think it's just natural to assume the Sox could get better talent because there are a lot of guys on a lot of boards ahead of him for #12 but the more I think about it the more I might be ok with it. Thaiss looks more like a guy who goes in the 20-30 range, that is a range the Sox normally live in and have a much better than average hit rate in. Maybe they really like him, think he's just as good as the talent in the 10-15 range and if do sign him they will likely save a ton of money and be able to sign better guys in the later rounds. MLB network just got done talking about HS pitcher Ian Anderson. He's a top 10 talent who is apparently a Red Sox fan. That's 2 of the most talented players from the NY/NJ area that are high school pitchers and Red Sox fans as Jason Groome is too.

Jim Callis last mock has the Sox taking Jason Groome, who is my favorite pick. He's been mocked top 10 all year and is slipping due to bonus demands from what I've heard. Some say talent wise he's the #1 guy in the draft but almost everything else I've heard says the sox have ZERO interest in him. The latest buzz is the Sox are in on Matt Thaiss, who is a college catcher and a former late round Sox draft pick. He's good, but he's been mocked in the late 1st round everywhere so I'm not sure how happy I'd be with the pick. Perhaps they really like him and think they can save a ton of money on the pick. All this comes with me knowing that I know nothing....I sit at a desk all day.....with no window.

Well that's effectively like saying Owens/Kelly > Buchholz. And right now...thats...err..umm...pick your poison dude.

That seemed a bit odd to me too, simple groin strains don't normally necessitate MRI's. I would think for a sports hernia they would do an ultra-sound. MRIs are more expensive than ultra-sounds and I think CT scans too so they are usually a latter used tool for diagnostics. If he's getting an MRI, then they are likely worried about something more serious. NOTE: I'm not expert, so take everything I said with a grain of salt.

Scouts are actually mixed on whether he can stick at short stop or not. Of course, those scouts could be right! they did say the same thing about Bogaerts coming up.

Yes, all I've heard is just what Slash is posting. I felt like I was almost rooting against Hill last year when we had this conversation; I was actually hoping the best for him. I was just very against signing him for starters money given the injury risk he had. I would have been very happy with signing him as a depth option or having a depth option to replace him at the right price but he just seemed way to risky for me. It's really just simple math, you have to work through it. Guys can only increase their workload so much from year to year and not only was Hill someone who has barely ever pitched a full season he has not done it in almost a decade. Given a chance to start 5th day on a mlb rotation it was about as close as you can get to a sure thing he would get injured at some point. For his sake, I hope this is minor and he can still finish the season strong.

I was thinking it could be ADD medication. I was also thinking about how it barely changed Jon Grays decision. I'm not 100% convinced the fact that he is dropping is because it might have been something worse but it is suspicious. Another thing to consider may be that Gray was a proven college player, while a high school talent no matter how well regarded is always going to be more raw so I wonder if any bad news just weights down more on them. Of course, the thing is that we really don't know how far he will fall. He might only fall back a few spots, but I think the reality is if he falls out of the top 10 that no one else in the first round has the money to meet his bonus demands. If he gets past #7, he could slide all the way down to say maybe #25 were the Padres will have their 3rd 1st round pick. A team like them will have the money to sign him there. I will feel very very smart now if SD ends up signing him.

I made a friendly bet with one of the BDC posters last year about Hill not getting past 10 starts this year. Looks like I was wrong....he got to 11.

Doesn't look like anyone will be trading for Rich Hill any time soon.

Here is my prediction of the 4 players most likely to be drafted by Boston today in order. Zack Collins Dakota Hudson Ian Anderson Zack Burdi I think the Sox would jump on a better college bat like Kyle Lewis, Nick Senzel, or Blake Rutherford if they fall. I doubt that will happen, but one of them like Rutherford may. They also possibly could jump on a HS pitcher like Matt Manning or Jason Groome if they fall. It is rumored that Oakland likes both those guys but prefers Groome but will draft Manning if he's gone. I could see the Sox taking one of those guys if the college bats don't fall and they are still there, of course they could be falling due to too high a price tag and that could scare the Sox off and move them to sign a guy they have an understanding with in terms of what it will cost to sign them. Then again, someone like Jason Groome who is reportedly a life long sox fan may be willing to drop his price tag 1 million down to sign with the Sox for something like 3.1 million. I would like to note, that I viciously follow the Soxprospects and every year they do a draft preview, and EVERY year the Sox have picked one of the 4-5 guys they list as possible targets. So, if that holds then your first round draft pick is probably one of these guys talked about here. http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/2016-red-sox-draft-preview.html

This is what I want to know. Was it just weed? a 17 year old smoking weed isn't exactly a buzz kill for me. Some drugs that treat ADHD are considered performance enhancers that kids take all the time. I'd find something along those lines much less of a concern than him sniffing cocaine or shooting deca durabolin into his butt. I think he either doesn't fall that far, or he falls so far that no one will have enough money to sign him until he gets to the supplemental round or the 2nd round. Stuff like that happens all the time. I know it wasn't drug related but that's what happened with Daz Cameron last year; he was considered a top 10 talent but his price tag was so high no team wanted to sign him. By the time he got the supplemental round the Astros were happy to take him because they had a MUCH larger bonus pool. He ended up signing for 4 million. Even though he went 37th he got the 5th highest bonus. I know they say take the BPA, and generally the draft follows that rule but it's much more complicated than that. But back to Delvin Perez. Here is a kid who scouts think will have a plus bat, plus power, a plus arm and they are split on him staying at SS or moving to 3B. I think comparisons are wrong but it almost sounds like adding another 17 year old Xander Bogaerts to your system.

I'm very intrigued to see who we draft because if you're looking at talent alone this is a VERY highschool heavy draft. But teams are generally very uncomfortable with that and that is showing itself in a lot of college players moving up on the mock drafts the last couple weeks. Mock drafts change so much this time of year not so much because the consensus on talent is moving (but it is) but I think a lot of it has to do with scouts hearing rumors about what team is looking at who. If that holds true, then a lot of that HS talent that was projected to go top 10 maybe even top 5 will fall. But DD has a reputation of LOVING proven college guys in the first round so we might reach back for a guy who was projected in the 15-20 area. If we do, I hope we are able to at least get a guy under slot and spread that money around. I've heard good things about the depth of this draft. Still, I'd like to see them take the BPA but sometimes it isn't that simple.

As a Wrestler in highschool and someone who has boxed and thai-boxed for 15 years I'd agree that there may be nothing more demanding than combative sports. Your brain takes a beating from being punched and kicked in the head or slammed on the mat, your body gets bruised from smashing bones against bones and fighting on the mat or in the ring is very anaerobic and aerobic at the same time. I use this joke with people who've never wrestled or been in a fight before. I tell them to imagine sprinting up a long him as fast as you can on a hot day, and then imagine someone punching you in the face while doing it. But now that I think about it, I think you could argue gymnasts are the best athletes pound for pound too.

I think I still take our 2011 draft over the Pirates 2011 AND 2010 draft.

Top talent Delvin Perez failed a drug test and may slip out of the top ten, and first round altogether. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perez-shelby-fail-mlsb-drug-tests-2/#gLYEVwxuhqSVBrTt.97

I think the further down the draft you move the more it's about the scouting department and scouts. DD probably heavily influences the first pick or two and after that it's all the system. A lot of that comes from some of the insight from Baseball Americas J.J. Cooper.

I do generally believe a lot of their failure to develop pitching is just the fact that overall it is really hard to draft and develop good pitching and probably a dose of bad luck as well as they've done great overall drafting and developing talent. However, they do seem to be better at position players, so something could be said about focusing on what you're good at. As I said before, generally it is harder to draft and develop pitching. And while the Sox have failed at this, they've had a lot of guys who worked their way up but just couldn't make that last leap. Some of it was due to injuries like Brandon Workman and Brian Johnson(although I saw workman as a bullpen arm and Johnson as a BOTRS) They've traded promising guys like Logan Allen, and some have turned out to be felons like Cody Kukuk. Also, while they don't have TORS potential you can't close the book on someone like Owens being a decent MLB starter if he can improve his command and Barnes looks like he can be a guy in the pen. Still their record at developing pitchers lately leaves a lot to be desired. There is also this. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/what-draft-history-tells-us-about-phillies-best-bet/#O6Rkgj32qOGi3xk7.97 Still I think if you have a draft process overall that works, you stick to it. If they get to the 12th pick and someone like Jason Groome is there and they really believe in him, I say take him. But if recent success is any influence coupled with DD's taste for college players in tough conferences I can see a guy like ZacK Collins, or Nick Burdi being their pick. Even with the strength of HS talent in this draft, There's always talent at the top and with DD's record of loving college guys at the top someone they like in a college program might fall to them.

Can't forget Soxprospects, they have excellent draft coverage. http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/2016-red-sox-draft-preview.html And I would highly recommend their draft preview podcast that I just finished as well. http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/podcast-ep-98-2016-draft-preview-with.html It's an easier listen if you download it on stitcher or itunes.

I don't think draft the best player available and focus on pitching need to necessarily be mutually exclusive. I think the further you move past the #1 pick the more fluidity there is between players and teams probably have draft boards that are tiered. Also, remember pitchers are generally 1/2 of the players that are going to be drafted and on your roster. The Sox will easily take 18-20 arms this weekend.

Oh no, I'm no expert guys. I just love following the soxprospects and read soxprospects.com and baseball america all the time. I'd like to consider myself a well informed fan of the minor leagues.

I agree with that statement, every sport is unique in it's own way. However, (and I'm just playing devils advocate here) I also think we don't know how he would be in another sport. The only other sport he would probably have a chance of performing is in football but as big as he is he's not that big for a football player. BUT, for all we know the difference in nutritional intake or exercise programs that he would have been on if he played football his entire life could have resulted in a much more buff Ortiz. He's a big guy, and while big guys put on fat easier they also bulk up easier. If Ortiz trained to be a football player he might be anywhere from 40-80 lb's heavier right now and a lot of that might be pure muscle. He could be a completely different animal and might have made it as lineman/linebacker. That's pure speculation on my part and I wouldn't bet on it, but we just don't know. Tom Brady was drafted as a catcher, perhaps he would have been a good catcher......but I highly doubt anyone would argue he chose the right sport. There's nothing wrong in your argument, but I don't think it's the same argument me and User name and others are making. Which is that Ortiz likely has a lot of wear and tear on his body that probably has a lot to do with why he is ready to retire. No matter how much easier his position is or should be, or how that compares to injury levels in other sports invalidates that sport in any way.

So if I wanted to look at things from the other side of the argument (which I'm not) then I could infer from this Data that Ortiz has been 62% more likely to be injured than the average football player because he's played 6 years to 1 year on average compared to the average football player.

I understand what this data is telling us, I just don't see how it means David Ortiz should easily be able to play more or that he doesn't nor will accumulate more wear and tear. This is an analyst of one player not every athlete in every sport in the aggregate. Between 20 MLB years and several years in the minors Ortiz has about 6 years of playing time compared to the average NFL player so the capacity for more wear and tear is there. Some players can play for 20 years, some sustain injuries they can't recover from and play no more than 3-4 years whether it is football, baseball, or hockey. Every player, every case is different...and if you've played through injury then the wear an tear your own body endures follows a different formula. But like I said before the difficulty of a sport, or generally how much wear and tear it creates is really irrelevant here. We are talking about one guy, not what happens to the entire population on average. Whether or not Ortiz could play another year is irrelevant, he likely has a ton of wear and tear and the degree to how much that will impede him going forward (in life in general) is yet to be known. No matter how much easier baseball is to play, or how fat you can be and still play it does nothing to change that that is a fact that could be a huge contribution to David Ortiz wanting to retire.

In general I shy away from starting threads but it is almost draft day and prospects are my favorite subject. Here is some relevant information leading up, feel free to add some analysts, articles, mock drafts, conversation, and hopes and desires. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-0/#05R41kJm2qygLr0l.97 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/6/6/11837308/2016-minor-league-ball-mock-draft http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/6/3/11848308/2016-mlb-draft-consensus-rankings-2-0 http://m.mlb.com/news/article/181759132/mlb-mock-draft-puk-senzel-lewis-are-top-3 http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2754 From what I've gathered this is a generally strong draft compared to recent years yet it seems to be lacking a lot strong college pitching at the top and seems to be flush with a lot of high upside high school arms at the top. Of course, the last week leading up to the draft there are usually a few names that come flying up the draft boards and some college players get pushed to the top.

Bill Belichick said something that stuck with me last year. Players win games, but Coaches can lose them. I think people give too much credit to the outcome of games, win or lose to the manager. With that said, at times they can make decisions that just seem very stupid at times that end up with horrible results.