Hugh2

Stat geek or not empirical evidence is just that. It will always trump feel good anecdotes. I don't think that has to be in conflict with game being mental at times. But the data says you're just as statistically likely to get a hit st any given point of time in or out of a slump. This doesn't mean slumps aren't real. It just means if you're 0-20 years of compiling data shows you're just as likely to break out of your streak there and get a hit as you would be otherwise.

Where did you read that? That's over 1/2 the season.

They did a study once where they took players in a slump and measured the probability of them getting a hit in their next at bat. Surprisingly the results were eerily close to a players career average. I'm not disagreeing with the mental side of the game but at least to some extent slumps are just randomness. Now this seems to disagree with what we see when you can really tell a guy is pressing at the plate but how often do we see guys who seem to be hitting rockets right people and others making weak contact that seems to find a hole? But again even considering the mental aspect (which I do consider to be real) I'd say that the study proves a player is primed to break out of his slump at any moment. You shouldn't bet red at the roulette table just because it hit red 5 times in a row. The odds are exactly the same every time.

If any of these guys would sign a milb deal, or a deal with an opt out it can never hurt to bring in arms during spring training.

To continue my point they can use that reset to go nuts on another top notch free agent or start extending some of their own guys

The penalties aren't harsh for first time offenders and those who only go over the limit by a little. The Sox don't mind going over the limit but living their is obviously another story. If they reset and go back over they don't have to live there because they've bridged the gap until guys like Hanley, and Pablo come off the books.

One of the reasons they could have Kelly in the rotation in Pawtucket is the lack of rotation depth. Yes the top 3 looks strong and 2 out of the 3 of Wright/Erod/Pom looks very promising as well. However we all know that MLB rotations will use over 6 starters during the course of a season and after those 6 your depth in AAA is Owens, Johnson, and Elias. Not saying there aren't other options and moves could be made but that I at least think would be the argument for Kelly in the rotation in Pawtucket. It would be nice to see the Sox pick up a few depth options, I'm intrigued but what Kelly could do out of the pen if he committed himself there full time.

On the contrary the new CBA favors the smaller market teams. They get from losing free agents, they lose less for signing them. More picks, and more money, not to mention all the revenue sharing. The new CBA is a lower for major market teams as it continues to handicap their biggest asset in money. The only real concession they got was a raise to the luxury tax ceiling which is not in step with salary inflation. I think you're right in that these guys are still billionaires making out well, but the last couple CBA agreements have been all about shifting power to the smaller market teams and reaching parity in the sport.

The cool weird thing about our outfield is we don't really need the depth we don't have in CF/RF. If JBJ goes down Betts or Benintendi could slide into center. If Betts goes down JBJ or Benintendi could slide over to right. In both scenarios a holt/young platoon takes over in left.

If Swiharts optimal value is at catcher he should stay behind the plate. I do think there's a strong case that if a guy is more valuable to the team at another position you make it work if the bat is special and there's a need E.G. Mookie Betts. However, there's not a need anywhere other than maybe 3B/1B. Two positions that make Swiharts bat not so special. I really think if he's not our catcher he'll be traded by the end of 2017. Many things can change this outcome obviously

Like I said, you can really make the argument for all three. There's no silver bullet correct solution here. Right or wrong, that's how the cards fall. There's a decent chance Stephen Wright is the odd man out of the rotation despite earning a spot; One could also make a compelling argument for Pom and Erod too. My gut tells me it's Wright, but a lot can happen from now until the end of spring training to change that. It is what it is and as you said it's a good problem to have. Btw, Merry Christmas!

Not many, I like Brent's as a depth option but I'm not sure he's worth a 40 man spot.

In terms of who the 5 man rotation will be I think it could be a pissing contest in here until we are in week two of the season. The first three are locks in Sale, Porcello and Price but after that there is a good argument for all of Wright, Pomeranz, and ERod. Drew Pomeranz. Why he will be the starter: Because of his first half last year, the hefty price the Sox paid for him, and the hope that with some added stamina he can replicate his first half for a whole season going forward. Why he won't be the starter: Someone is the odd man out, he doesn't have the ability to lock down a rotation spot for 32 games and he has more experience of pitching out of the bullpen than the other three. With sucess I might add. Stephen Wright Why he will be the starter: Again he had a really good start to the 2016 season, and at the end of the day he really only had one bad 6 week stretch in August and September. Besides that he pitched like an ACE most of the year and has a track record of average to above average results in Boston and the minors the past 3 years. Why he won't be the starter: No matter how well knuckleballers pitch they always seem to come with some question marks. Their performance can be volatile from game to game and from season to season. There is a sense he was pitching above his talent last year and again at the end of the day someone has to be the odd man out. For a guy who is kind of a one trick pony it becomes pretty easy to throw him into the swing man role which also allows the Red Sox to avoid optioning Eduardo Rodriguez. Eduardo Rodriguez Why he will be the starter: Talent and upside. We've all seen his potential here and in Pawtucket the past few years, with youth on his side and injury behind him he seems primed for a break out season. He very well may have the capacity to be the better pitcher over the next few years than Wright or Pomeranz. Why he won't be the starter: He has an option left, which gives the Sox the option to keep him ready in Pawtucket if anyone from the five man rotation goes down or severely under performs. History tells us this will happen. Despite his upside and high ceiling talent he's never seemed to fully put it together for a full season and considering the last point I made it makes sense for him to get some innings in Pawtucket and prove he's ready and overcome some of his pitch tipping issues while he waits for his next chance. Now I'm sure some here would agree or disagree with many of these points but that's they whole point of this post. I don't think there is a silver bullet answer for what to do, but if I had to guess I'd say all things being equal in spring training that Pomeranz and E-Rod take the 4th and 5th spots while Wright becomes the swing man out of the bullpen. But as the old saying goes, these types of things have a way of working themselves out.

If Swihart stayed catching last year he probably not only improve his defense but much of that time would also of been spent in AAA. He might of had his cup of coffee towards the end of the year and had some playing time when the team went cold along with Leons bat. This is all hypothetical of course, and I do think him spending time in AAA not injured and a focus on catching would have helped him tremendously

Oh dear god please no! my brain hurts! I don't even want to think about that. : )

It's really hard to judge a G.M. because how many of us really know any of them other than the ones that have worked in Boston? Other than that we know Cashman because he's the Yankees G.M. and a lot of people know Billy Beane? I suspect a lot of no name G.M.s could actually flourish in Boston with a a better scouting department and a much larger budget. It's kind of hard to judge a G.M. on a losing team if the ownership doesn't want to eclipse 100 million.

What really separated CV from the rest was his glove which became very mediocre last year. In the absence of his elite defense his sub par offense really stands out. Leons bat really dropped off last year too and with no prior track record of hitting you wonder if he was just a fluke. It all kind of makes you wish the Sox kept Swihart at catcher next year and let him to continue to develop his skills. It will be interesting to see how things shake out this year, there's definitely a lot of talent between those three but a lot of question marks as well.

Someone asked a question and I answered it. I apologize that a BDC comment took up one line of space on this forum.

That's the most realistic path for Devers. Of course there is a wide range of outcomes and players can always force the issue but I see very few paths to the majors for Devers next year....in 2018 it's a different story. I tend to not even think about a guy being MLB ready and thinking about where we can pencil him in until he's showing you something in AA.

I wouldn't trade Betts for anyone right now. We matched up well with the Mets 1-2 years ago but this team is set for the next 5(ish) years and Betts is at the center of it.

Yeah it seems unreasonable now. While the offense took a step back I still think it's going to be above average and with how much better our pitching will be this team is primed to be well balanced and dangerous. Subtracting Betts from the equation changes that dynamic, but without Sale I would explore that type of trade. The team obviously still sees Swihart as having a potential place on this team and I think they really like him. He was a top 20 prospect just a year ago and he had a funny season in 2016. He was jerked around a bit, moved into new positions and then got hurt. It's real easy to look at the slash line, see how the outfield has solidified itself and forget about him but he could really end up being a big part of this teams future. And.....his name starts with B.

Gerome did back in the old BDC days....he's ok guy but we used to bust each others ballz a lot. I never let that one go.

Betts for Syndergaard seems fair enough. Although at this point I like the balance of the rotation and wouldn't want to hurt the offense anymore after losing Ortiz bat. If we had NOT traded for Sale this year I'd be ok with a Betts/Pom trade for Noah Syndergaard and possibly going out and signing EE to play 1b/DH. This is all under the assumption that Swihart is a decent left fielder and I'm the G.M. and it's two months ago.

Salary dump!!!!!!! I think we all agree there. Don't underestimate the value of a good organizational guy though, it adds value to have good guys surrounding future stars coming up. Also, you never know, the Sox might have seen something they like in him. Sometimes throw ins shatter all expectations, which realistically with this guy would be him turning out to be a good bench bat : / but yeah....that's more wishful thinking than it's not but hey you gotta fill the minor league rosters too!!!!!!!!

Is it still too late to trade Brandon Workman and Mookie Betts for Matt Kemp???