Hugh2

So in otherwords at some point you're going to have to hope a guy like Owens, Johnson or even Haley win you a game. This is exactly why the small moves matter too. I'd love to see some depth options in the Pawtucket rotation.

This. Progression is not linear, as it is very different for everyone. Benintendi could be a star next year and I'm optimistic that he will be, but it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone if he struggles too. It's also important to remember that if he does struggle it's not a big deal. It's not a big deal in a sense of it being any type of indictment on his potential. He's young, he was a year removed from school before he reached the majors so he can be forgiven for not being the next Mookie Betts next year. From the teams perspective it could be more problematic if he struggles but that's the price you pay and often it pays back dividends e.g. Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts.

I think platooning him may have been a good way to young at bats and ease AB in. He had pretty good splits in the minors.

Of note, the team will start to lose it's young talent in the year 2020 when Bogaerts reaches FA, they will have an additional 20 million per annum to spend between here and there. The only people they will have under contract at that point are Price, and Pedroia (I'm assuming they won't pick up Sandovals option) Although they do stand to incur some hefty arbitration costs. Still, I think they money will be there for some extensions at some point.

I'm hearing they decided against an international draft but for hard bonus caps against all teams. I was really hoping for at least one year for the Sox to go crazy in the international market to try and restock their farm system.

Now back to 2017. The story line I find the most fascinating is the 2017 rotation, will it be worse or better? There is much to be optimistic about but also much to make one weary. David Price - after a slow start he was still effectively David Price, so was one bad month a fluke? I can easily see him having an overall better season but the questions of post season performance remain. Rick Porcello - gone from horrible BC move to a brilliant find and a CY YOUNG which coincidentally I made the argument back in the BDC thread that often pitchers who become aces often have very lackluster beginnings to their careers. The example I used before was Max Scherzer who really seem to come into his own the same age as Porcello. Did we see the real Rick last year? did he take the leap forward? Will he easily be an ACE again? It's hard to believe there is much room for improvement for a guy who won the CY-Young and it's reasonable to assume he could take a step back in value but I do think to some extent he's taken a step forward in his career. Eduardo Rodriguez - we've seen the potential, but he's yet to put together a solid consistent season. He's still very young, and very talent, and with that in mind there is really little reason for concern but I don't feel comfortable penciling him in as a #3 until he actually does it. He could easily be anything from a good #2 this year to a BOTRS, to injured. Clay Buchholz - I.....I got nothing. Throw a dart at a board. Inured all year, injured half the year and good the other half, injured half the year and sucky the other half. Stephen Wright - didn't seem the same after returning from injury. He looked like an ACE the first half of the year, I don't expect that this season but could he be still be good enough to hold down a rotation spot all year? if he can....that bodes very well for this pitching staff to add some depth to it. Drew Pomeranz - How can I forget this guy? well I almost did. A once highly regarded prospect turned failed starter turned successful reliever turned successful starter turned questionable this seasons end. I'm skeptical on Drew, I know he has talent but we've yet to see him put together a full, healthy successful. season. My hope with Drew, is the first half of the season was the REAL Pomeranz and his later struggles were due to fatigue. Fatigue would be natural for someone who has never pitched a full season as he has. If he can replicate what he did last year, and has more stamina in his sophomore season as a full time starter then he could easily be a #2 here.

I leave the classification of what is or is not a disease to the professionals. What makes things like addiction (food or drugs) a disease is the chemical reaction that happens in your brain. The disease is the predisposition you have to addiction, I think it's confusing to some people because there is a choice involved and yes they DO ultimately make that choice but remember once it's made they have a legitimate disease and if you want to blame them for that just remember that you made the same decision at one point in your life if you ever picked up just one alcoholic beverage. We can sit here all day and argue what type of empathy we should have for people who decide to stick a need in their arm or a donut in their mouth vs. someone who GETS cancer. We can disagree there but I think we should leave the classification of diseases to the professionals.

As of right now, I'm not worried about AB's splits vs LHP/RHP

From what I gather many think Benintendi is more of a low ceiling very high floor type of player.....except his ceiling really isn't that low. He might not be the next Mookie Betts but I think he has a really good chance of being very close to that good. Remember when we just HAD to draft an outfielder in 2013, but 2/3 of our current star studded outfield was already in the system in Benintendi/JBJ/Betts.

This forum needs a like button

Well, that's because of the unexpected, or when a player hits a serious decline. Odds are you can project what Mike Trout will do next year but he could get injured or fall off a cliff. Now that's probably not likely for a player his age but someone like Robinson Cano is much more likely at 33. Projections take into account a ton of information and weigh countless scenarios in reality a lot can go right or wrong. Why many projections are completely off, I'd be willing to bet the sum of all projections is eerily close to actual production. Here's some food for thought, remember the classic pennies in the jar guessing game? research has shown that the sum of all guesses are almost always closer than any one guess. Projections are a nice guideline, but so much can go right or wrong when looking at just one player.

How often are projections right for rookies with very high upside? I doubt they accurately predicted the value Bogaerts would provide in 2015, or the value Betts would in his rookie year. Projections go on track record and unfortunately guys like Benentendi have little. The reality is there could be a lot more volatility in the range of outcomes because there is less certainty. This works both ways, he could easily have a sophomore slump and not adjust to pitchers adjusting to him a la Bogaerts 2014. But he could just as easily become an all star caliber player with a WAR of 4 or more.

I really hope they don't institute a draft until after 2017. With regards to what happen to the Sox this past year with penalties and the depletion of their farm systems to trades I'd love to see them go on a spending spree this year in the international market without restrictions. However, if they do decide to have a draft in 2018, you could see a large bidding war in the international signee market this year.

Yes, China and the Philippines. I mean WOW, two shinning examples of how we should treat our fellow humans. Where is your humanity? where is your empathy? a bullet in the head????? really??? What if that was your son, daughter, wife, brother, sister, cousin, or loved one??? you sicko.

conversely the more complex a model or equation is the more likely it is to factor in every scenario and possibility to measure a more accurate outcome.

Not that I completely disagree but we traded from a position of strength to get a need. We had Bogaerts at the time who was the #4 prospect in baseball looking like he was MLB ready. In this case, we traded for a position of need with a pitcher for a pitcher, with that pitcher being arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. Also Peavy was a proven a starter, not as dominant as he once was but you were confident he'd give you innings and pitch like a #3. Pomeranz was generally unproven as a starter and his history and recent track record screamed fatigue or injury which we saw materialize. Again, in a sense we traded for a need both times and to varying degrees succeeded, but I think the price we paid for Pomeranz at the very least has a chance to be much higher.

Prospects flop, no one has a crystal ball and if they did the draft would be a perfect linear chart of highest to lowest WAR (generally speaking) going from the #1 pick down. Better prospects and higher picks tend to pan out more often and have a higher chance of succeeding at an increasing rate the the higher up you go in rankings but to some extent it is and always will be a crap shoot.

I was never that impressed with Ranaudo. He was a top 100 but never a top 50 prospect, and guys like that flop all the time. When Anthony Ranaudo was a top prospect in the Sox system the system was very weak. I remember in 2011 he was our #3 ranked guy behind Ryan Kalish and Will Middlebrooks. I never saw him as more of a #3 if everything panned out and when his secondaries didn't developed I had hoped he could carve out a role in the bullpen but he never got that chance here and his velocity never really returned either.

I'm sorry but with all due respect I always found that argument unreasonable. Do you think teams try more or less to draft the BPA? Every team is always trying to draft the guy who they think has the best chance to be the next Trout or Kershaw with every pick. The reality is, it's a crap shoot. Even top 10 picks who have an astronomically higher chance of being MLB players than the rest of the draft bust 50% of the time. If you go back and look at the 1st round and top 10 picks in every draft one thing you'll notice is for every team that really hit on a player, usually completely busted on a top 10 player a year or two within that pick. If we are looking back 10 years from now and it looks like we struck gold with Benintendi and Groome and Ball isn't even a reliever how much different will we look than other teams who drafted great in the top 10? The Orioles struck gold with Machado and Gausman and Bundy look like they are contributors now as well now that they are healthy. You hear a lot of people talk about those guys, but no one ever talks about Matt Hobgood who was a complete BUST. Sandwhiched inbetween their Nick Markakais pick were 3 top 10 pitching busts in Wade Townsend, Chris Smith, and Adam Loewen. Pretty much ever team that has had mutliple top 10 picks within consecutive years has drafted a bust for every star they drafted. I do think there is something to the argument that the Sox need to figure out what is going on with their pitcher development but to some degree I do think it is draft position. Think of it this way over the past 10 years the 5th best pitcher drafted between the 20th and 30th pick has been Daniel Bard 4.3 WAR so far. Also things change, I remember a few years ago the fan cry in 2013 was how Boston just couldn't produce outfielders we HAD to draft an outfielder. Yet here we are with a Benintendi, JBJ, Betts two of which were already in the system. Also, Swihart could make a splash in the outfield and there's even some talk that Moncada may eventually end up there. Again, I think we have to accept the reality of how much of a crap shoot a draft really is. I'm sure they don't draft a bust like Ball due to lack of trying, and if Bentendi becomes the player he appears to be then they did pretty darn good for having 2 top 10 picks.

I think the Sox are committed to HanRam playing 1B next year. Depending on where they go at the DH position I could see someone like Shaw splitting time with him there. I don't see a 3B move, I think they forsee Moncada ready early to mid season and will go with some combination of Sandoval/Shaw/Holt/Hill. In a perfect world Pablo plays well enough to unload at least some of his contract and Moncada takes over. Rotation depth is a concern, and you can never have enough bullpen arms. I would seriously be ok with going after Chapman, even if he gets overpaid we've learned that around the trade deadline teams are more than over willing to pay for bullpen upgrades. Kimbrel was too shaky for me and with Uehara gone and a question mark over Smiths return we could really use a lights out reliever. If Kimbrel/Chapman/Smith are all lights out then awesome......if it looks like someone like Barnes or Kelly really emerge in the bullpen you know you could easily get rid of those guys can probably get back good prospects too.

As far as I'm concerned the season completely resets this Thursday.

Low K pitchers can be very good, but much often than not they are NOT. It is more common for a high K hitter to be good. So while I agree with Moon that low K pitchers can be effective I think it is generally true that K's are over rated for hitters but not for pitchers.

If the Sox did rescind the trade then in August you have either Joe Kelly or Henry Owens making starts every 5th day. I think he'll be fine for 17' and 18' but what worries me now is the same thing that worried me back on July 14th, and that is his durability. Now that may not be an issue next year with more strength and innings built up but it was entirely reasonable to assume he would break down at the end of this year and he has. He helped get us here, and he could be a big part of the future but I'm not sure how much he can be trusted going forward in 2016. This would be a really really really good time for Erod or Clay to turn it on and both have shown signs of doing so down the stretch. It will be interesting to see how Drew does next year.

Regardless of what the Padres withhold about Pomeranz this is exactly what I said would happen to Drew. To my own discredit, anyone should have been able to predict this type of innings increase would lead to either injury or diminished results later in the season if not both, as many others did state.

My biggest concern for Pomeranz when we traded Espinoza for him was I thought there was a significantly good chance he would break down towards the end of the year. If this is the case, we are right back to where we were looking for a middle guy. Still, if Pomeranz can build on his innings this year and be the guy he was in the first half going forward it's not a horrible trade. Luckily, Buchholz and Erod have stepped it up lately. Pomeranz has been really good out of the pen in the past, perhaps he can be a weapon there in the playoffs. On the other hand, it would seem risky to throw him in that role without any recent experience right when every inning matters.