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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    His Leverage is he's a sophomore, he can go back to college and go into the draft two more times. If he falls to 2 or 3 he can say he was good enough to go 1-1 and that's the money he wants. Guys often sign for below, and above their bonus slot. The Pirates slot at #1 is 8.4 million, they can easily take someone willing to cut a deal and sign someone for 7 million if they wanted. Pittsburgh could be trying to low ball Leiter too. Now the difference isn't that much. There is precedent for this. Brady Aiken was drafted 1-1 overall in 2014 and did not sign because he wanted more money. He could easily be bluffing and asking for more money, this is all negotiating. But I agree, It's risky, and a team could easily call his bluff. But if the Sox draft him, he's not starting in 2022, I'd put my money on late 2023.
  2. Hugh2
    Duran might be the future outfield over Wilson, but there's plenty of reason to believe that right now...Wilson might be the better option. Maybe not in August, or next spring, but right now he might get the call first.
  3. Hugh2
    If Mayer, Leiter, and Davis are gone at 4 and Lawlar is on the board you have to think House will be in play too. I know Watson has come on lately and some mock drafts have put him as high as #2 but I haven't heard anyone connecting him to the Red Sox. I'd like to say Rocker, who was heavily connected to the Sox earlier but there has not been any real talk about him going to Boston lately, it could just be other names attached to the Sox because they're doing their due diligence but I think he's still a possibility at #4. I'm very hot and cold on Rocker, one moment I love him and the next I want the Sox to pass. I won't be upset if he's the pick. Leiter falling to the Sox, I wonder how much of that is him supposedly pricing himself out and down to Boston? there's a scenario where he falls there no matter what, but I can easily see a team calling Jacks Leiters bluff and drafting him at #1-3. That's a real possibility.
  4. Hugh2
    Agreed 100%
  5. Hugh2
    All the data showing a “drop” in Sox pitchers spin rates actually in some circumstances are showing an increase in other pitches. Where we’ve seen drops they’ve been around 1% or less. That’s insignificant.
  6. Hugh2
    Yeah well I’ll believe my own eyes over Chad Jennings. The data doesn’t seem to support the narrative. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-pivetta-601713?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
  7. Hugh2
    A lot of what happens 2-4 can change depending on what Pitt does at #1. And this draft is unique in that there’s not a clear cut #1 consensus pick at the top.
  8. Hugh2
    I do think Davis is a candidate for #1 but I don’t think he’s the clear cut best player in the draft. Teams don’t draft for need at the top like that. Also remember both Texas and Pitts have been heavily linked to both Mayer/Lawlar. But in the spirit of conversation if Davis,Leiter, and Mayer are off the board I’d be happy with House or Lawlar.
  9. Hugh2
    I can post a link later, but you can look up pitcher spin rates. It does not look like the drop-off in performance was related to a drop in spin rate as there has not been a drop in the spin rate for Boston pitchers. All-day on WEEI they're saying this is bad news because it means they really suck. I see it as the opposite, that means everything they did before was honest too (it would seem). This gives me confidence that they're just in a bad stretch right now and I expect them to improve. The pitching may have been overperforming up until recently, but they're also not this bad.
  10. Hugh2
    I don't think the actual goal is to save money. But rather increase the amount of money they can spend on other picks. You can go 5% over your bonus pool and only have to pay a tax on that 5% overage, but if you go any higher then you start to lose 1st round picks. If a team can save 2 million at the top and throw split the money up in later rounds they can grab talent that fell there because of money issues and get a higher talent than that pick commands. Personally, I don't think the Sox are going to save money, maybe a few hundred thousand but they're not looking to cut a deal outside the consensus top 6-8.
  11. Hugh2
    KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven. EL: Yup.
  12. Hugh2
    I probably have a different definition of "bust" than most. I'd consider Colon more of an underwhelming pick.
  13. Hugh2
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/ New Mock out, has all three top HS SS going 1-2-3. 1. Mayer 2. Lawlar 3. House 4. Leiter. Click on the link and read, the rumor is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and the feeling is mutual.
  14. Hugh2
    Two points. I actually thought about adding Bryce Harper! good catch. Although he's kind of in a league of his own age-wise he should be on that list too. There were not many busts on that list, I'm not looking at it now but I can think of three off the top of my head, I may have forgotten 1. It also depends on how you define bust. If making it to the majors and posting a positive war is considered worthy then there are actually very very few busts in the top 5. You're almost guaranteed to pick an MLBer, and I write this a week after Riley Pint retired from baseball.
  15. Hugh2
    I did too, BUT I suspect they're not this bad either. Probably something inbetween. If what we're being told is correct, this was rampant all over baseball so I suspect our offense should have an easier time as well. Maybe it's time to bring Franchy back up!!!! Him and Dalbec might get more out of their raw power if they're making better contact.
  16. Hugh2
    Keep in mind, even a top college talent may be 2 years away from contributing
  17. Hugh2
    I kind of addressed this point in my post above but I’d like to add to it. It may be our right as fans to demand instant gratification, but the Sox organization has to think about building a sustainable product today and down the road. Sometimes that means developing talent for several years. Remember a farm system is meant to supplement the big league club, and sometimes that’s trading away those guys for the immediate gratification, like when we traded Moncada, Kopech, Basabe for Chris Sale. We traded 3 birds in Bush for one in hand. We went with the instant gratification (won a WS with Sale) and yet we’re not stuck still watching Kopech trying to stick in the majors. I’m leaning Davis, I’d love a college talent who could reach the majors quick and would be happy with anyone from the Leiter/Rocker/Davis camp, but I think it’s perfectly justifiable going Lawlar/Mayer/House/Jobe.
  18. Hugh2
    I don’t think the Sox are reaching at #4, I believe they will take premium talent. Maybe they got one of those guys for 200-400k under slot, but they’re not cutting a deal to reach for someone and to significantly under. Obviously I don’t work in the Sox office to confirm that, but I’d be will to wager that still. Also, premium HS talent doesn’t take 7 years to reach the majors. Usually it’s 1/2 that time. Also, just because someone isn’t automatically assigned to a level doesn’t mean they’re not working with the team at other sites. However, I’d be willing to bank that if they take high school talent early, you will see them in game action this year.
  19. Hugh2
    Exactly, we are in the toughest part of our schedule, and TB has been playing their weakest part of the schedule.
  20. Hugh2
    We can even narrow that down to high school hitters taken top 5. 2001: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira 2002: BJ Upton 2003: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks 2005: BJ Upton 2006: Mike Moustakas 2008: Eric Hosmer 2010: Manny Machado 2011: bubba starling was a busy but what a draft. Look up 2011 first round. Wow. 2012: Carlos Correa, Bryan Buxton. Going to stop there. Left out a few busts like Matt Bush, and Tim Beckham, but the results were clear. If you’re picking top 5, even high school hitters are almost always productive mlbers. Feel like going back and taking a look at Hs pitchers. HS pitching is probably the riskiest demograph but some interesting names in there. Now I really like Davis, and the two Vanderbilt arms. But Mayer and Lawlar are top 5 draft prospects with 5 tool player potential. I won’t be mad if they’re picked.
  21. Hugh2
    Thought it would be productive to steer the draft talk over here. Found this mock top ten from a year ago. Obviously outdated, but interested to see who’s in and who’s out. 1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA) 3. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt, 4. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU 5. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida, 6. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX) 7. Luke Leto, SS, Portage Central HS (MI) 8. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville 9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami 10. Ethan Wilson, LF, South Alabama
  22. Hugh2
    His command has come and gone a bit too, never seems to happen in big games where he shows up. It seems that he’s fallen for some inconsistencies that’s a little unfair because Leiter has shown those too. When on Rocker has been the most dominant pitcher in college. I wouldn’t call him a low ceiling high floor guy. His ceiling is as high as Leiters.
  23. Hugh2
    I don’t want to say it’s still early, but it kind of still is too early. Plenty of baseball left in the season
  24. Hugh2
    It’s crazy, I remember when 20 million was a big deal. I remember when people lost their s*** and started JD Drew hating cults over 14 million.
  25. Hugh2
    Pretty soon we will see the first 40 million dollar player. Yeah, Bogaerts is getting paid.
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