Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Admittedly this is conjecture but I’m not buying guys like Frelick moving up and Lawlar falling past 5. There seems to be a lot of assumptions about “deals” being cut but I’m not sure we see so much of that this year. There’s supposedly a big drop off in talent after the top tier of 5-6 guys. But overall this is a very deep draft. Think of all of those college seniors who didn’t get drafted as juniors. The senior signs will be better than any year and they have little to no leverage. Not sure how much these teams want to throw around high school talent as the class is still suffering from COVID, many of the national circuits either didn’t start back up or stared later. The scouting is still behind on those guys.
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Conversely you can say if Leiter can’t stay healthy or Davis strikes out too much people will be up in arms if Mayer and Lawlar pan out. I hate comps, because I think they’re lazy but people are comparing those two to Xander Bogaerts.
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Yeah it’s not different, these guys know what to say about these kids. The purpose of the farm is to support the big league club. That’s it, nothing else. Now, sometimes that manifests itself through grooming the future position player at said position, positional depth to account for injury, or to trade and make the big league club better. All these kids are hypothetically trading chips. No manager, general manager, President of operations etc etc is ever not going to give the most optimistic assessment when asked about any of these guys. They’re not going to crush a guys value so a journalist can get a hot take. It’s like, the car salesman at the Toyota branch isn’t going to tell you the new corollas are s***.
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J.D. has an opt out after this year.
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I’m sorry, but they’re not rushing a young 21 year old to the majors to platoon with someone. Casas playing in Boston at some point in 2022 is a good bet, but he’s on a starters trajectory. He’s one of the top prospects in all of baseball and he has real middle of the order potential. You don’t platoon a guy like that, not until you have to at least.
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Yes he did make those adjustments, and it’s people buying into that power that heightens his prospect status. But that gets talked about because he’s “a guy” in the system. Highly regarded and talked about. All prospects are working on things in the minors, whether it’s their swing mechanics, defense, a third pitch etc. I don’t see how we can discount what Wilson is doing at the expense of giving Duran a shot. At the very least, you’re not DFAing Wilson for Duran (or anyone), not when you don’t have too at least.
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You could say the same thing about Duran who has been a very different player up until now. Before this year he had no power, now he does. Worcester is inflating those numbers to some degree, but it’s real.
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You and me both (in terms of overlooking Wilson). I didn’t start the wheels from spinning until someone else pointed it out to me. Now there may be very good reasons for Duran to be ahead of Wilson in thermos prospect status and potential. But I think the argument is very strong that Wilson (at least for a little while) is the guy we should be talking about coming up to help the team and not Duran.
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The soxprospects scouting page is very brief about Wilson’s speed. “Plus speed and range”
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I don’t know the answer to this question but I think if you were to race Duran and Wilson Duran would win but it might be very close. Wilson has plus speed too, and unlike Duran projects to be able to play CF right blow.
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I was going to make the same point. You’re comparing a college draftee to a high school draftee. It could be that extra time In the minors without reaching the majors hurt Wilson’s value, but for the next year he might be just as good as Duran or better. From AA up, Wilson has put up slightly more impressive numbers. Also, his defense is clearly much more advanced than Durans. Yes
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Who gets sent down from the rotation once Sale is back?
Hugh2 replied to TylerD's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
What can we even realistically expect from Sale? Let’s say he’s not 100% you’d take just him being out there getting healthy again with the hope that he’s a top pitcher in MLB in 2022. Let’s say he returns and is as good as ever, which I think is very plausible. Now you have to limit his Innings. What can we realistically expect from him come October? Realistically, we need another ACE, and Eros underperforming really makes things complicated for this team. -
Agree, at a later date of course just like you. Maybe Wilson gets DFAd at some point but until then he should be ahead of Duran. If he hits at the MLB level his value shoots up too.
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Both Cordero and Wilson are on the 40 man while Duran is not.
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So with all that said, why wouldn’t Wilson get the call before Duran? By every account he should.
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I don’t think his value (stardom) ever went down. It’s probably as high as it’s ever been.
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Wilson’s OPS since entering the Sox system 2019: Salem 1.016 2019: AA .749 2021: WOO. .956 Duran minors ops vs Wilson .834 vs .763 Wilson has been just as good recently (maybe a tick better) at the hugest level before the majors. Here’s some more food for thought, Durans defense is pretty bad while Wilson is a plus defender.
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I’m not contending Wilson has more value than Duran, I just found it interesting. But to your point, to be fair, Duran has never hit like this before either. Power is completely new to his game, and some of that may just be Worcester.
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Here’s an interesting fact. Wilson is just one month older than Duran and playing at the same level. Wilson is sporting a .956 OPS vs Durans .929 And yet Duran finds himself in the conversation of being rushed to the majors before he may be ready, and Wilson finds himself in the conversation for being DFAd.
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I think Bloom gets hung up on for that offer.
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A good formula for determining when a guy is MLB ready is to take the date fans start insisting they belong in the majors and add one year to that date.
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It’s definitely a small sample size, but it falls in love with the reports that Worcesters Stadium pads stats. It’s a hitters heaven. Just one of many reasons to not scout the box score.
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Worcester kind of reminds me how scouts used to talk about the PCL years ago. You have to take the numbers with a grain of salt. The stadium was constructed for balls flying out of there.
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2021 MLB draft
Hugh2 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
And the more I think about it the more I like Davis. -
2021 MLB draft
Hugh2 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
This is obviously conjecture but I’m thoroughly convinced the Sox top 4 is some combination of Davis/Leiter/Mayer/Lawlar. I think the pick is someone from that list.