Hugh2

Get ready, we’re about ONE week away from Duran being called up.

For what's worth the past week Franchy is sporting a .208/.208/.458 line. He seems to have cooled off a bit down on the farm.

Davis has been mocked in the top 3-5 for over a month now. He's the best college hitter in the draft, plus hit tool and power, plus arm behind the plate.

I think Duran gets called up around July 2nd. Book it.

The problem with prospects is often times we evaluate them and talk about them in the future of being boom or busts. Every guy that hits well and pitches well in the minors is a future MVP/CY young guy, that may be a bit hyperbolic but I think it makes my point. Johnson always projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Often prospects don't reach their ceiling and they become something in-between. For some perspective, let's look at a guy like Houk, who many envision as this great starter who is going to come up and take a spot in our rotation. Could he? yes, but I don't think he's any more than a back-of-the-rotation starter if he can refine his offerings. You can get guys out in the minors with two good pitches but you'll get chewed up in the bigs the second time through an order. So what happens is everyone scouts the box scores and assumes this guy can transition his MiLB dominance into the majors but that will never be the case if he can't refine his stuff. Will Houk be a bust? maybe, maybe not if makes some improvements, but he could also fall somewhere in between and become a reliever, a very good reliever at that too. Think Matt Barnes. Matt Barnes failed as a starter and now he's one of the best closers in the game. I think of someone like Duran too, who I think could have a really good MLB career, but people talk about him in here as if he's going to be an all star who will immediately make this team better. Maybe he will help this team right now (can't do much worse than Santana) but there's a good chance he's not going to be as good as many think he is.

I think that’s a good question. I wouldn’t object, I would prefer they take Davis or one of the HS bats over Jobe but that’s a personal preference. If the goal is to take the guy who is going to be the best player, that’s a decision that’s not certain. Jobe is the best high school pitcher in the draft. He has the tools you dream on for a guy being a top of the rotation starter. If you’re drafting for ceiling, then Jobe belongs in that conversation. Jobe is in that conversation. However, high school pitchers are the riskiest pick in the draft. We all remember the Trey Ball pick. HS arms are the riskiest class.

Someone like Jobe or Watson could easily fall ahead of the Sox. That could push someone like Leiter or Davis down to us too.

Actually I think it's a horrible comparison. What Eli did was not routine at all, when has a NFL player been drafted and demanded they be traded because they didn't like the drafting team?. Leiters agent is throwing around bonus demands which is common practice in the MLB draft ever year. There's probably a 100 other potential MLB draft candidates who have agents throwing around numbers right now. EDIT: I think your top 3 mock is spot on. Of course, I think draft day could go down a bunch of different ways, but that would be my guess.

At this point I’d put someone like Verdugo or Bogaerts leading off. I get the argument against batting them lead off, but at this point you’re effectively leading off with your #2 with one out. Mine as well start things up with 1 out.

Casas high GB rate is starting to concern me, I don’t think Duran is as good as others say he is. I think he’s a big leaguer, and can help this team (maybe even this year). But I don’t think he’s going to be the all star that many think he will be. I’m starting to really like Bello. He might have the highest gap between floor and ceiling amongst the group talked about but his stuff is electric.

I would suspect Leiter controls when he reaches the majors. Within reason obviously. He won’t be rushed, he won’t be held back for long, when he’s ready he’ll find his way on a team soon enough.

I don’t think it’s an unfair assessment that this team is playing above their expectations. They’ve played themselves into competing, awesome. I’m not convinced they’re a true World Series caliber team. Their are areas where they can improve to reach that next level.

I agree that he deserves a long look, and I think he has a higher ceiling than his stat line currently shows. I’m not convinced that he won’t always be a streaky hitter who strikes out a ton. I’m also not convinced that when he goes back into a slump people won’t be demanding a replacement for him again.

I think if you want to compete next year you need to pick up a starter. The depth is better this year but we’re still lacking the type of star talent that can lead you into October. Having Sale back should help. Houck strikes new as a reliever, a good one though.

We only know what we know, and these are relatively unknown commodities. But everything I’ve read on the draft they refers to makeup grades Leiter as a high make up guy. I’m certainly not going to believe he’s anything less without specific reason to believe so. Davis is reportedly a high makeup guy too.

To be fair Vaz plays good D at a premium position, Marwin is a bench guy, Santana is minor league depth call up, Plawecki is a backup catcher, and Kike is a utility guy getting starters reps, but he does provide plus D at premium position. Dalbec plays a bat first position, he deserves more flack.

Dalbec has been hot/cold all year, he’s a streaky guy. He’ll be cold again in a week. Let’s just hope he gets hot when it counts.

Ok, but my point is prospects usually don't bust into the top 100 the year after the draft unless they're top 5 guys. If we're getting those guys it means we suck, so yes I would rather have my recently drafted prospects not top 100 guys. From that vantage point of course, not that I wouldn't be thrilled if a guy we took 29th turned out to be a stud immediately.

I think that's an unfair assessment of Leiter, he's listening to his agent, and stuff like this happens all the time to try and clients the best bonus.

Here's a perfect example. Mookie Betts was drafted in 2011 but he didn't become a top 100 prospect until he entered the 2014 rankings @ #75

Yeah, there's really no such thing as being blocked as a pitcher. If you're the top catching prospect or the top short stop prospect and you're playing behind an all-star you might get blocked for a year but the team will eventually either move you, trade you, or move the guy you're replacing. Good pitching is such a sought-after commodity and you need 5 starters, not just one guy for each position and injuries happen. Guys pitch their way up into a bullpen role for a year sometimes too. If you can pitch, you're not getting blocked for very long in baseball.

Pretty much nothing. Often times guys who play in the minors the same year they're getting drafted are getting 7 games at 2B or 10 IP if that. The way I look at it is you realistically need 5 years to judge a draft.

But how many of those guys were players taken at the top of the draft? We're picking #4 this year, so we're going to draft a guy this year who is going to slide into the top 100 right away. Almost nobody drafting that gets a top 100 prospect until the guy has played a year or two and proven themselvs.

Way way way too early to judge the 2020 draft and even the 2019 one. Some of these guys haven’t even played a game in the minors yet because last season was canceled. It takes several years to truly judge a draft, longer for drafts when that have more younger guys too.

Yorke was a highschool hitter which is the riskiest pick in the draft after HS pitchers. I like the pick but it's what it's, high risk high reward. I do remember listening to a Soxprospects podcast where they had heard from the Sox F.O. that they viewed Yorke as a kid who had the potential to move up higher in the draft given more time. Last year was a weird year in that they didn't have a season. You're kind of seeing the same thing play out this year in the draft with guys like Khalil Watson getting some last-minute helium. Nice to see him turn it on, it will intriguing to follow his (hopefully) path to the majors over the next few years.