Hugh2
-
Posts
4,264 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
7
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Hugh2
-
Is that the old CBA? Is one of us going to have to read the whole damn new one lol? Wouldn’t mind doing it but I probably won’t get around to it for a while. It could very well be true that they both still get a partial rebate and it’s an amount high enough to make Henry and most owners want to reset before 3 years.
-
Hold on so you’re saying you suspect what was in the old CBA is in the new? You may be right but that’s a horrible assumption to make. I think we need some clarification on this.
-
Yeah but it wasn’t just bad results, he looked unready. But now he looks better in AAA, he might be one of those guys better suited to get a longer look elsewhere
-
2nd to home and 1st to 3rd allows more room for error because he has time to get going and make up for a bad jump. So yes, he adds value going 2nd to home but don’t expect him to turn into an expert base stealer, yes he’ll swipe some bags. But the kid has a .268 OBP at the majors, if he can’t get on base, he can’t add value. So let’s not make him better than he is. How much value is negated going 2nd to home from a guy who can’t get on base when a much higher premium is now placed on outfield defense? I’d argue at best he’s retained his value, which is pretty low right now. The good news is, he’s young enough to turn it around. But I wouldn’t be planning on it right now, I’d it happens great.
-
$318 is the per team amount of total MLB revenue, which now that I think of it I'm not sure if that's total revenue or revenue sharing. I think it may be the former which should be easy to derive since MLB takes 48% of each team's revenue and divides it evenly. So the actual figure may be closer to $150 million. That still likely blows any chance of the Sox every staying over the cap for three consecutive seasons out of the water.
-
That just seems like a Bloom type of move.
-
This is true, but you could probably pry away one of Miami's arms for taking on Garcia or Soler and still end up paying 1/3 of what you would if you went out and bought a Degrome type...and you're getting a much younger commodity as well. Think of the JBJ trade where we effectively bought prospects to take on their payroll (JBJ) except here we would be taking back a MLB caliber arm instead. You might still have to still send a prospect, but if you're helping them shed payroll it's saving you someone from our top 5, maybe even top 10 from being included. If someone like Soler can stay healthy, well now you have a better outfield too, which would just be a bonus. If he does bounce back he probably opts out his last year which may or may not net you a pick. (probably not).
-
Neither do I, which is why I see them getting creative with their cap space to bring in talent. Such as taking Payroll off Miamis books to bring in a starter, and the. They go big next year when you have to for Devers
-
That would entail the Sox spending over $273, which they won’t. If they wanted to spend $272 they could easily sign Devers, Bogaerts, and go out and get Judge/Degrom. Resetting in 2024 would be a tall task though. But the pick is nowhere near as big a deterrent as the money. $318,000,000 is > moving back 10 slots.
-
That's pretty much my thoughts, I think they could reset after next year but I"m thinking they're going to reset this year.
-
considering the Sox generate the 3rd largest revenue they're likely not getting back what they paid out. Still, we know the revenue per team to be $318 million. But I stand corrected, teams have to share 48% of their revenue. I highly doubt JH, or any sensible business owner would ever lose half his revenue and not get back $318 million.
-
Well, that's what it would have been this year. If revenues go up next year...it will be even more money. Remember the MLB takes 31% of your revenue and divides it evenly, you don't get any of that money if you stay over the cap for three years. Everything else is peanuts compared to that.
-
If anything his speed is going to play more going 1st to 3rd, stretching singles into doubles, going from 1st to home. To get value there, he has to hit more.
-
John Henry doesn't care how restless the natives are. Not when hundreds of millions of dollars are involved. If they think it's better to reset this year, they still have the resources to improve the team and that's the direction they will probably go. I could be wrong, but there's a strong chance they do here.
-
I think it makes him less valuable. His defense sucks which makes him less valuable on defense, and he can't hit enough to get on base. Despite his speed, he has bad base running instincts and doesn't swipe a lot of bags as someone with his speed should. his value has gone up as a pinch runner. How much value does that really add?
-
I think it's a deterrent but not a strong one, this isn't the NFL, the difference between pick number 30 and 40 is pretty insignificant. It's the revenue sharing that is going to cost the Sox. John Henry has to dish over 31% of his income to be pooled and dished back out. If he doesn't receive his portion of the revenue sharing then, for example, this year he lost $318,000,000 dollars. That's the big deterrent, there's no way the Sox stay over 3 years in a row. No way John Henry is leaving $318 million on the table. He's a businessman first. That's the real deterrent.
-
I figured that's what you meant. I can speak "I haven't had coffee yet" very fluently.
-
I think that's easy from we want to win now fan mindset, but from the build, an organization from the bottom up, and it looks like they still might be one more year away it makes more sense to go all in after 2023. You'd have reset, and some of that minor league value should start blooming into MLB roles. You can also still make moves to be better in 2023. I think they reset this upcoming year. I don't expect them to go over.
-
Not during the most part of the regular season, but you see a pure pinch runner type when rosters expand and in the playoffs now. Also, Kier Meredith is nice, but minor league stolen base numbers may be the most useless stat ever. Garin Cecchini once stole over 50 bases, he was not very fast at all.
-
It's closer to 12% and that number goes down every year as the tax threshold goes up. Still significant, but remember once you get under for a year you have two years to play with. So if they reset next year, they'll never have to worry about Sales money again, because the next time they'd need to reset he's going to be off contract.
-
They're desperate to shed payroll and have specifically targeted Soler and Garcia as contracts they need to shed. You take on one or two of those and you can pry away one of their young highly talented arms for next to nothing. That's the type of Bloom strategy I envision. I personally would like to see Soler and see if he can bounce back with limited playing time split between RF/DH and see the Sox get a platoon bat to go along with him. You might be able to pry away a relief arm from them too (especially if you take both contracts on) I'm looking at Nardi and/or Bass. So think of it as getting a set up guy and a potential young ACE for 20 million per year. And if Soler gets healthy now you have a RFer as well. That stinks of Bloom.
-
Well, I think it's going to drastically reduce shifting, which is going to put a premium on infield defense. You might see some modified shifts for an extreme pull hitter where the LFer moves over to where the 3B would normally move over too. Then your CF/RF plays left center and right center. Need two good speedy guys for that to work too. Which again, if viable, puts a premium on outfield defense.
-
But it's blatantly obvious these new rule changes will increase the value of speed and up-the-middle defense. This makes the defensive tandem of Wong/McGuire more attractive and makes prospects like Rafaela, Bleis along with the 2022 draft class more valuable (potentially) as well. Sox used to love drafting all up the middle types. Glad to see them get back to that.
-
I don't think this does anything for Duran. His speed isn't a factor on the bases because A.) he can't hit enough to get on base and B.) he doesn't have great instincts which negates much of that speed. If anything this gives more value to a guy like Hamilton, who...may have been in the majors now as a pinch runner off the bench if we were a serious contender.
-
I was having this discussion on another forum and my opinion was changed on the matter. The tax on the overage is only the overage. So the Sox can spend another 20 million up to the next threshold ($253 million) That's $20 million over the cap and since it's their second consecutive year over they will be taxed at 30% That's 6 million dollars. $6 million dollars isn't scaring off John Henry, what's scaring him off is losing out on the revenue sharing for staying 3 years over. If that was this year, he'd be losing out on $318 million dollars. Ok that's not coming this year but it's coming next year if they stay over. $6 million is peanuts, hundreds of millions are not. So, the reality is the Sox are going to reset either this year or next, and if the reset doesn't come this season then I expect the team to be constructed in such a way that makes it easy to get back under next year. This is why they may not shy away from offering qualifying offers to both Eovaldi and Wacha, with the former possibly being more contingent on how healthy his arm looks.