Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I would not be surprised if Swanson is the best value going forward. He could be coming into his prime right now. He might be a 5 WAR player thats going to be paid like a 3 WAR guy. Here's a crazy thought, sign both Bogaerts, and Nimmo. Play Nimmo in CF, play Bogaerts in LF, have Verdugo get back into (not bulking) shape and play him in RF, move Story to SS and play Kike at 2B. Kike's is a plus defender there and maybe this is just a coincidence buy his offense is much much better when he's playing the infield.
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also, they will probably spend around another 4-5 million on rookies. So isn't the true budget somewhere around 85 million? I don't know TBH, the true numbers always seem to elude us.
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Does JBJ's 8 million still count against the cap in 2023?
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I just don't understand why we don't go after all these No risk High reward deals.
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Just go Bogaerts/DeGrome/Nimmo and call it a day. If the Sox are content going over the cap then I'd offer a QO to one of Wacha/Eovaldi as well. DeGrome Sale Wacha/Eovaldi Bello Pivetta Whitlock/Crawford/Winc Hill/Paxton? CF - Nimmo SS - Bogaerts 3B - Devers 1B - Casas 2B - Story CF - Kike LF - Verdugo DH - Hosmer/Dalbec C - McGuire/Wong
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The Paxton deal I think was always about 2023, with the hope that maybe he could be a late season pick-up for 2022 which didn't materialize and wouldn't have mattered anyways. His setback seems to have been minor. I think it's fair and wise to move on and cut the losses BUT I'd be happy to have him at 4 million. I don't think it's out of the question he exercises it.
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That same group also says JD might get 3/54... ughh no. That's probably within the ballpark of what Bogaerts gets though. FWIW Clemens prediction of 7/217 was my exact prediction here and in other places. But I'm starting to think his real market value will fall somewhere between. Maybe 6/180 7/200 If those crowdsource numbers were 100% accurate predictors of the future, I'd just spend the 10 million more on Turner.
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Regardless, Sox are probably going to have to spend 25-30 million up the middle on someone this offseason.
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Devers gets 300/10 in the open market. Bogaerts probably gets somewhere around 200/7. Sox got to meet at least one of those asking prices. I think there's more wiggle room to move down with Bogaerts number than Devers. He's a few years older and there are other options out there.
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I can't find the source anymore so I don't remember how reliable it is. But I was hearing rumors there is a lot of interest in Paxtons camp to exercise his 4 million option.
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Actually, scratch that, it's whatever their revenue share refund would have been. If they stay over for 3 years they become a disqualified market and 1/2 the money goes back into the pool and 1/2 goes to a players benefits fund. I think the big take away is there are very harsh penalties for staying over the line for a prolonged period of time. It's very narrow-sighted and naive to just sit around and say "well it ain't my money". If we are going to have intellectual, realistic, and rational baseball conversations moving forward then it should be under the assumption that the Boston Red Sox are going to go under the luxury tax line either this off-season or the next.
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I think it might be substantially more than 100 million. It's going to be about 48% of their revenue. Probably a little less than 48% because I'm guessing the Sox make more money than the average MLB team.
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If we stay over next year it will be the third year over the tax line, which means they're going to get under. Wait....do they lose revenue sharing AFTER 3 years? like....they can spend over for 3 but get under for the 4th? or do they need to reset on the 3rd year. I'm not sure. Maybe you're right on this.
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You do know if they don't reset they end up losing up to hundreds of millions a year? A billionaire isn't coming along to make no money every year just for our excitement.
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I think you mean 2024 and 2027 instead of 2023 and 2026. The Sox are either resetting this year or next.
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I'm pretty sure that's the AAV if the Sox opt-in. I'm a little surprised he's going to opt-in too, you would think he'd find someone to give him a little bit more than 4 million for one year but....reportedly there is interest on his side of doing so. That would be great for the Sox if he does.
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I think is the figure if the 13 million dollar option is exercised, which it will not be.
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Even if he exercises his option? which is only 4 million.
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It's reported that he's expected to exercise his option. Doesn't that put the Sox on the hook for 4 million AAV? seems like an ideal scenario for me.
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Very close to my 207/7 year contract I predicted months ago. Lets see if my penny in the penny jar theory transfers over to baseball.
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I'm commenting on the Tweet that the Mariners and the Giants are in on Bogaerts and Turner. My comment was 1/2 serious, obviously just because a couple of teams are in on two guys does not mean other teams will not be in on them nor does it mean The Sox are not. I do wonder if Correa would want to come here and play for Cora though.
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Looks like Correa is coming to Boston. Maybe Swanson. I don’t hate it but they have to lock up Devers.
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I think we have to offer Bogaerts market rate. If all deals are equal I think he stays here but he's going to get offered 25-30 million per depending on the years. If it's in the lower range 25/26 then I think it's going to be 7+ years from someone.
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I think we can conclude with 99.99% certainty that they're getting under either this year or next. which if so, this year makes the most sense.
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Remember about 15 million is needed for player benefits. As it stands now the Sox have about 80 million to spend. Bogaerts is probably costing you 30 million per. That's 50 million to spend MAYBE 55 which is actually very little considering we need at least two starters, relief pitching, a RF/CF type and not a catcher if you're happy with Wong/McGuire. If you sign Brantly you're down in the 35-40 million range. It's just unnecessary, I'd rather go with Hosmer, or rotate the position to keep guys healthy. Lord knows we could use it seeing how much injuries derailed this team in 2022. Also, knowing the Sox are going to get under the cap either this year or next makes it even less feasible. If they just reset and could get him on 1-2 years that's fine. But this does not seem like the year to be wasting 10-15 million on a DH when pitching was clearly the problem last year.