Hugh2

This is such a great point, it makes for interesting conversations as well when you consider extending a guy like Bogaerts. He could age well and be worth more than whatever contract he gets, whether it be 150 million or 225 million. He could also his a wall and be nearly worthless from here on out. The same could be said for anyone we pay to replace him.

I agree with this, he’s boot a ball or make a bad throw and accumulate a few more errors than Jeter, but he had much better range and more than up for it by making plays that most other shortstops would just never make. His defense dropped because he hit a wall, it happens, and it happens quicker when a guy gets injured. When Nomar was healthy he was an asset on both sides of the ball

I think it's worth saying over and over again as long as this thread is active. In his prime, Nomar was hands down the best SS to wear a Sox uniform. Heck, if injury didn't derail his career he would have been a first-ballot HOFer.

Does anyone else finds it concerning that all of Bogaert's positive defensive value came in the shift? Take the shift away and he had negative DRS. He's passable, but a move to 3B is enevitable.

Ok, but if you want to use the Rocky movie as an example a better visualization is Rocky smoking, drinking, fat and out of shape. Maybe hit the treadmill up for a few months and take a fight. Sox are close, but you don't get from A to Z by skipping the rest of the alphabet

From my recollection, Beni was also a guy who popped on the radar last minute. A lot of teams reportedly didn't start scouting him until late because he was a draft-eligible sophomore and I guess people were slow to pick up on that.

There was some talk of Lawlar going ahead of Mayer, but it was mostly in the context of someone taking a deal. Mayer was the consensus #1 talent

I mean in hindsight, the hype around Groome fell quickly after he was drafted because he never really performed, he battled so many injuries too. Mayer, to date, has looked great.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/04/28/mlb-draft-top-prospects-order-jason-groome https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/5/12800880/2016-mlb-draft-review-boston-red-sox I'm just going to stop there because it's all the same. You can go back and see for yourself, but PG, BA, MLB, Keith Law, and others all had Groome either #1 or top 3 and #1 at some point leading up to the draft. He fell apparently to signability/makeup issues. Not trying to stain the Mayer pick, because "hey if Groome failed can Mayer fail" the answer is YES, but Mayer is off to a much better start than J-Groome ever got off to and appears to have no "makeup" issues. Maybe there's a little hindsight in the judgment here and add seven years into the equation then it gets easy to forget how highly Groome was regarded. It's ok, I can barely remember what I had for dinner last night.

Pre-Draft Mayer was ranked by MLB, Baseball American and Perfect Game 1, 2, and 1 respectively. Groome was ranked 1, 3, and 1. That's pretty damn close, effectively the same hype.

I know people love to say you draft BPA, which is generally true, but at the same time not at all. Teams love to cut deals and spread their money around, especially when they have a large pool at the top of the draft. Teams also put a lot of work and effort into guys who they think will be there and when someone is on the board you didn't expect to be there sometimes you keep the deal you had. Pittsburgh took Davis first because they were able to cut a deal with him and saved 1.9 million dollars. The Rangers went slightly over for Jack Leiter, so who knows if they really thought he was better than Mayer, it might have been that they favored pitching (which they often do). Detroit took Jobe, who absolutely nobody had as a top 3 guy, the Tigers did go under slot with him not much but it had been reported that they were working out a deal with him before the draft. I don't want to depict Hollywood and a different sport as an accurate picture of what happens in real life but I almost kind of think it's like the situation in the movie draft day when the Browns shocked everyone by not picking Bo Callahan overall. Then everyone went with the picks they had thinking he wouldn't be there instead of freaking out. I wonder if this is why Groome fell to us in 2016. Mayer was widely regarded as the top prospect in the draft, and we were very lucky to have picked him AND got him to sign for slot. But, lets remember, Groome was also the best player in 2016 and we all saw how that worked out. Still, in one year Mayer has showed more promise than J-Groome ever did. I think this kid is going to be special.

Pablo Lopez is going to cost a lot more than Rafaella plus a bunch of middling prospects. Young cost-controlled pitching usually starts with a couple of top prospects, TOP prospects. Teams are going to want one of Casas/Mayer/Bello just to come to the table for a guy.

My biggest concern with Pablo Lopez is he seems to eat up crappy teams and pad his stats. I think he may end up only being more of a #3 guy in the AL east. I'm not sure I'd want to give up a guy like Mayer for him, which would probably be the cost. The guy I'd go after is Cabrera, who is younger, has much better stuff, and might actually be cheaper.

I think they have to start making decisions with Whitlock/Houck on whether or not they're pen guys or starters. Sox know it too, plus the pen needs so much help I think you kind of have to put guys in there you figure are going to relievers long term anyways. Sale/Pivetta/Bello/Whitlock/FA/FA. I think they need to bring in two pitchers. One guy who is known commodity, an ace would be nice but at least a solid #2#3 type, and then maybe one guy who fits the mold of Wacha this passed year. I'd feel a lot better about that rotation going into ST.

If you're extending Raffy, youre going over the cap there. Unless of course they extend raffy and have it kick in after 2023? could they do that?:

Mata is your 5th starter?

I think the biggest reason is if you're a young 1B and playing the majors odds are you can hit, and you can hit very well. The offense gets paid the big bucks in FA, and those guys often make bank, all things considered, an offensive bat playing up the middle will always get paid more but their value can drop more if their D takes a toll. Thats just my guess, but I think the Sox need to get back to doing that more, like at Atlanta, they pretty much have their entire starting lineup locked up. Some guys are always going to bet on themselves and take it to FA unless you drop Mookie money in front of them, but that's just the way it goes.

I don't completely buy into that. The MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than any of the other sports. There's so much more fluidity between the top 10 and bottom 10 of the first round than in any other sport. LA has maintained good farm systems when consistently picking at the bottom of the first round, and in the past we had done a much better job of that as well. But you can also build up a farm by trading guys away, which we've done a little bit of recently but also we may be drafting better again as well. And it's been taking guys later in the first round too such as Casas (26th)Yorke (17) Houck (24th). Mayer we got because we got the 4th pick, but we've blown picks that high and also drafted the supposed best player too with little to show before (Groome/Ball). But LA is the model, they draft well, despite never picking in the front, and they get creative by taking on money to bring in talent without giving up prospects as well. It can be done, and I'm hoping that is what the Red Sox are trying to immitate.

I'd dangle an 8/50 in front of Casas and see what he does. Bello I might be more inclined to wait until the end of 2023.

There's a risk you take when you bet on yourself though, you could end up with nothing if you get hurt. To a very young man 35 million dollars is a LOT of money, and that's why some guys take it.

Bad for Alvie’s right? It’s an interesting concept, you never know if a guy who has performed well in a small sample will be your next Devers or Middlebrooks. But even if 1/2 those early contracts busted you’d probably still save money than buying those wins in FA. There’s risk on both sides, Bogey might have been looking at another 100 million this off-season if he gambled on himself and hit FA a few years earlier (or several off seasons ago). Some players choose to gamble on themselves, which is why you see guys not get locked up early E.G. Devers, Betts.

If I’m trading Mayer for pitching, I want someone better than Lopez, who I believe is over rated. Wait, was confusing Lopez with someone else. Still, I happen to like Cabrera better. Regardless, Miami is desperate to shed payroll, the Sox would still have to give up good prospects but you could probably lower the price by taking back one of Garcia/Soler. Heck I’d take both if we didn’t have to give up a top ten guy.

And he may have easily played in Boston for only 4 years, win two MVP's and then opt out. Maybe in that alternate universe, Boston got Arod in his Prime and never got stuck with the bad contract. Maybe they win in 04 and 05 06? You just never know, that's not the world we live in.

We have zero insight into what could have been. Perhaps we don’t win in 04/07 but we win in 05, and 10 instead, or not, or we have more WS wins. We just don’t know. Keep in mind, the Sox liked Theo and brought him in because he had a shared baseball philosophy with Billy Beane. To them, he was Billy Beane light. So while we don’t know what types of moves specifically he could have made, I’d be willing to bet pushing the ARod one across the finish line was NOT one of them. That’s not a Billy move, and I seriously doubt BB would have significantly more pull to get the players Union to have signed off on the deal. They still reject it.

A lot of things are a matter of perspective. DD did decimate the farm system, but it turns out that farm system was a lot weaker than we thought. It’s the power of hindsight but most of those guys busted. That doesn’t mean the Sox didn’t really like those guys and had high hopes for him. Perhaps the REAL lesson here was we were due for a few years of suck no matter what. In terms of it being the fans fault. That’s bs. Now could it be true? Idk maybe, but if it’s it’s still BS. I get that the FO cares about revenue, and disgruntled fans and a losing record will affect that, putting pressure on them to spend. But if you have a plan, and you believe in that plan, and you let a couple years of subpar success and whiney fans steer you off that plan then you’re too thin skinned for the job.