Hugh2

On certain issues I tend to defer to Soxprospects take more than anyone. Especially on any baseball player outside of the top 50. I'm not saying they have superior scouting, they do not, but they do have more eyes on our players than anyone else. I've seen them ring the bells on guys all the time being overhyped and their fears materialized. For example, they were much lower on Lars Anderson than the national media was and they were proven correct, as they were to date with Jurran Duran as well. The opposite is true, they thought Xander Bogaerts was a high-ceiling future all-star 2 years before he made any top 100 lists (much in the mold of Bleis now). They seem to think Rafaela is being overhyped now. They still think he can be a stud, and an allstar if the bat develops, but they seem to have some concerns about his hit tool. At the very least, this should have anyone from thinking he's going to break through to the big leagues next year, or even be a staple in the lineup by 2024. He may end up just being a good 4th outfielder. I like him, but the hit tool seems to be an issue.

I have heard absolutely nothing about Henry being invested in FTX, and if he heavily was I feel that we would have heard something. It's possible he may have had a small slice of the pie, but he strikes me as a smart enough man to not put all his eggs in one basket. I think this is a non issue and pure speculation.

Yes you're correct, my bad.

Was he forced though? Aren’t they looking at buying a hockey team now? Is there any news on how invested he was if at all into FTX

This is true, there’s a lot of talent close to MLB ready For example. Mata is hardly the best pitching prospect we’ve had come through the system, and we’ve seen the likes of Henry Owens and Allen Webster get hyped up and fail. But he could be a starter or reliever for this team by the end of 2023.

I also think Mayer and Bleis are in a different league than Downs/Duran. Both figuratively and literally

I think he’s a great name to bring up if the point is to prove to guy is untouchable for the right price. Now If we wanted to entertain a legit deal for Alcantara, which I’m not, we probably have to offer Bello/Mayer/Bleis to get them to the table. If they were serious about moving him that might even get it done or something close to it. There does not seem to be any indication that Miami wants to move him however.

I think he’s close untouchable now, but also no one is ever truly untouchable. This is why I used Alcantara as an example as unlikely as he is.

That’s actually not that huge of a stretch, if Verdugo replaced Betts, Renfroe is the obvious replacement for Benny. If Teddy develops into a middle relieve, the Sox easily win that trade. The bar for that trade is very very low.

Agreed, If Mayer still looks as promising as Mayer in 2022 into 2023 he carries significantly more trade value. Which, when you look at the other high ceiling guy in our system (Bleis) who is even lower than Mayer then you make the argument that right now is NOT the time to start trading prospects. We'd be selling way too low. It would likely take Bleis/Mayer to get now what one them may net you in 1-2 years.

It's always tough looking at these lists in hindsight, remember most of the guys in this top 20 will either bust or not reach their ceilings. But we've had some stacked systems in the past with plenty of close MLB talent. https://soxprospects.com/history.htm

agree. I don't think we should or will trade Mayer as in it's unlikely. You don't just go out and trade a guy like that but there's plenty of permutations where you could and it makes sense. Everyone knows I'm one of the biggest prospect homers in here but even I know you don't fall in love with them....they will break your heart.

They’re 95 million below the cap, it’s not a guarantee they will go over or even right up against it but we know at the very least they’re spending most of that money. Precedent proves this, the money is going somewhere, we can expect big moves.

I mean, there’s guys on that list who project as middle relievers and up/down depth fielders. Out system has always had plenty of guys. But easily 5-6 years ago the system was as strong, maybe much stronger than it is now

I've said it before and I'll say it again. You do not make MLB roster decisions based on guys still below AA ball. So much can happen from here until there before we even talk about fielding a team before the next two years. Lars Anderson Casey Kelly Ryan Kalish Will Middlebrooks Blake Swihart Yoan Moncada Michael Chavis Jay Groome All top prospects ranked #1 and at least one of those ranked higher than Mayer who were mostly or complete busts. Mayer could be a stud, I think he will be a stud, I want to see him stay with the Sox and become a stud but I'm not planning the team around him. He could move off position, Bogaerts/Correa could move off position, Mayer could get hurt, Mayer could bust. There's just too many permutations to put all your eggs into that basket. Heck if the Sox traded Mayer + for an Alcantara (not happening making a point) after signing Correa would people really be upset? It would be pretty dumb to complain about this team then hate the best SS in baseball plus the best pitcher being brought in....but hey STRANGER THINGS have happened.

I think we get PTSD from bad offseasons and losing seasons and forgot the Sox still are and continue to be one of the biggest spenders in MLB baseball. Every time they go a few years without spending big they go out and set the market time and time and time and time again. With close $100 million to spend and a BIG 4 in SS I think it's a good opinion to have to expect them to go big at SS.

They could easily go Senga ($15) Kluber ($12) Conforto ($15) Correa ($32) and spend 74 million. They'd still have around $15-20 million to improve the bullpen after that, and Conforto could be a 1 year deal. giving them 30-35 million if they want a Devers extension to kick in next year and lower the AAV a little on it. If Eovaldi signs elsewhere you net a pick.

I didn't say they are signing one of Rodon/Verlander/DeGrom, it's, in my opinion, they're not in on any of those guys. Yes, I agree and I think we are in agreement here the Sox are signing two guys from this FA group or at least should. If it pushes someone to the pen that's a good sign....it means Sale and Paxton are healthy. But someone always goes down at some point. You can never have enough pitching.

5 makes a great point, however he could be talking about the entire 2023 FA pitching class as well.

One thing I've learned over the last decade of watching baseball is people have a very warped view of what a #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 starting pitcher is. I suppose it's a little subjective as a team could hypothetically have 2 #1's or even three warping someone's view of what a #3 is.

I think it's the exact opposite. They need two guys, to reiterate my post above they will go with a higher end option and more of a value signing. Eovaldi is not going to cost a lot AAV, and Senga isn't getting what DeGrome/Vernlander/Rodon will get. They may not, but they easily could afford both and still sign a SS/RP/OF. Eovaldi also comes without any draft pick loss which other teams can not say making him much more appealing to Boston. Unless of course you think a Senga signing allows the Sox to go big with either Rodon/Verlander????

The problem is there are only 3 guys you can consider ACES on this years class: Verlander, Rodon, and DeGrome. All of those guys are going to blow up your budget (which would be fine if there weren't so many holes to fill) and carry significant Injury and or age risk. I love Verlander, but there's very high-risk next year is the year he hits the wall and can no longer be a staple in anyone rotation, and if it's not next year then maybe it's the next. Does anyone think that's not a massive risk for 40 million dollars per year for his age 40, 41, and 42 seasons? I really would have to see 70 million wasted on him and Sale with little to nothing to show. DeGrome is a safer bet with age but has the injury track record to scare anyone and he's looking at a massive payout still. A team without as many rotation holes to fill will pay him. I almost want to remove Bassit from my suggestion, I like him, but I don't like losing the pick. This is why I love Senga, no QO, but I still think we need two names and likely have to lose a pick to sign a guy. I think we need two names from the Senga/Walker/Bassitt/Manea/Kluber/Heaney/Eovaldi/Syndergaard group to fill out this rotation. I think one needs to be one of the better betts and the other can be who the Sox think may be this years WACHA type. Go into the season with 7 pitchers who are NOT Wink/Crawford. I really like netting picks and going with a Senga/(Syndergaard or Eovaldi) addition. Heck I'd do the same at SS with either Bogaerts/Correa and call it a good offseason while netting picks.

Oh me too, Wink is very low on my list of guys I expect something from. Still, 99 mph out of the pen makes one wonder.

Everything always depends on Price, but I’d check in on Senga/Taillon/Bassitt. If I trust my scouts and they think Senga is the real deal he’s my #1 because he’s probably costing significantly less than the other top pitchers on the market who all pose either serious age or injury risk. This probably allows me to pick up two guys and still have the budget to either resign Bogey or upgrade at SS. Like I said, everything always comes down to Price. I’d check in on the trade market as well. The Marlins have publicly stated their desire to shed payroll, I would consider taking on Garcias contract to lessen on package for Lopez. Sale Lopez(or Senga) Kluber Bello Pivetta Whitlock Paxton. Sure that’s 7 guys, what are the odds they all stay healthy? If by some miracle they do, you can push a guy to the pen and start the season with a 6 man. As the old saying goes….you can never have enough pitching. People can pick that rotation apart as much as they’d like….but at least it’s an opinion.

The thing is we know the Sox need to get more than one starter. There’s no way they’re dropping prize money on two of them. And there’s no way they should with the amount of roster construction they need. If the Sox pick up a legit #2 type and Kluber is the second guy who they think is this years Wacha….it’s not a bad look