Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I don't completely buy into that. The MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than any of the other sports. There's so much more fluidity between the top 10 and bottom 10 of the first round than in any other sport. LA has maintained good farm systems when consistently picking at the bottom of the first round, and in the past we had done a much better job of that as well. But you can also build up a farm by trading guys away, which we've done a little bit of recently but also we may be drafting better again as well. And it's been taking guys later in the first round too such as Casas (26th)Yorke (17) Houck (24th). Mayer we got because we got the 4th pick, but we've blown picks that high and also drafted the supposed best player too with little to show before (Groome/Ball). But LA is the model, they draft well, despite never picking in the front, and they get creative by taking on money to bring in talent without giving up prospects as well. It can be done, and I'm hoping that is what the Red Sox are trying to immitate.
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I'd dangle an 8/50 in front of Casas and see what he does. Bello I might be more inclined to wait until the end of 2023.
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There's a risk you take when you bet on yourself though, you could end up with nothing if you get hurt. To a very young man 35 million dollars is a LOT of money, and that's why some guys take it.
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Bad for Alvie’s right? It’s an interesting concept, you never know if a guy who has performed well in a small sample will be your next Devers or Middlebrooks. But even if 1/2 those early contracts busted you’d probably still save money than buying those wins in FA. There’s risk on both sides, Bogey might have been looking at another 100 million this off-season if he gambled on himself and hit FA a few years earlier (or several off seasons ago). Some players choose to gamble on themselves, which is why you see guys not get locked up early E.G. Devers, Betts.
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If I’m trading Mayer for pitching, I want someone better than Lopez, who I believe is over rated. Wait, was confusing Lopez with someone else. Still, I happen to like Cabrera better. Regardless, Miami is desperate to shed payroll, the Sox would still have to give up good prospects but you could probably lower the price by taking back one of Garcia/Soler. Heck I’d take both if we didn’t have to give up a top ten guy.
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And he may have easily played in Boston for only 4 years, win two MVP's and then opt out. Maybe in that alternate universe, Boston got Arod in his Prime and never got stuck with the bad contract. Maybe they win in 04 and 05 06? You just never know, that's not the world we live in.
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We have zero insight into what could have been. Perhaps we don’t win in 04/07 but we win in 05, and 10 instead, or not, or we have more WS wins. We just don’t know. Keep in mind, the Sox liked Theo and brought him in because he had a shared baseball philosophy with Billy Beane. To them, he was Billy Beane light. So while we don’t know what types of moves specifically he could have made, I’d be willing to bet pushing the ARod one across the finish line was NOT one of them. That’s not a Billy move, and I seriously doubt BB would have significantly more pull to get the players Union to have signed off on the deal. They still reject it.
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A lot of things are a matter of perspective. DD did decimate the farm system, but it turns out that farm system was a lot weaker than we thought. It’s the power of hindsight but most of those guys busted. That doesn’t mean the Sox didn’t really like those guys and had high hopes for him. Perhaps the REAL lesson here was we were due for a few years of suck no matter what. In terms of it being the fans fault. That’s bs. Now could it be true? Idk maybe, but if it’s it’s still BS. I get that the FO cares about revenue, and disgruntled fans and a losing record will affect that, putting pressure on them to spend. But if you have a plan, and you believe in that plan, and you let a couple years of subpar success and whiney fans steer you off that plan then you’re too thin skinned for the job.
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The Red Sox might not resign him, but they’re going to offer him more money than Story.
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Why would you start the service clock early on some prospects and lose a year of control? Bring them up when they’re ready. Notins comment above is spot on, and might I add the Sox have a ton of money to spend and still reset the cap. Let’s see how the off-season goes.
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The difference between picking #5 instead of #15 in baseball is so much more fluid in the MLB than it’s in the NFL or NBA. It’s not worth throwing the season. The lesson from the last few seasons is the difference between a playoff caliber team and a last place team is not as much as we think. Similar teams, different results. Need more proof? 2012 to 2013. 2017-2018. Yes guys were added, but it was the usual suspects staying healthy and having better seasons. You sign Nimo because you need a right fielder.
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This is a good point, and some of those other guys were plagued by injury and still very young; although it's not looking great for Yoan Moncada. Michael Kopech on the other hand.......I'm sure we would love him in this rotation heading into next season. Jumping back before DD's time another guy who was highly regarded and never really worked out was Anderson Espinoza. But he was plagued by injury and missed so much developmental time. He's still just 24 and made it to the majors this year. Didn't look great in 18 innings but the stuff is still electric so you never know. Some times there are a lot of really good productive MLB players who don't really bloom until they're in their late 20's. They can't all be Mookie Betts.
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I don’t necessarily buy this. The fact that none of the prospects have panned out that DD traded is at least just as much about luck as it is him trading guys who were overhyped. I’m sure the Sox really liked and had high hopes for Moncada and Kopech, but they really needed a guy like Sale. Perhaps another way to look at things in hindsight would be how different this team might have looked the past five years had they retained much of talent.
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It's a waste in hindsight, and this highlights the payoff vs. risk of making such moves if you consider this. If the Sox decided to open up their wallets and offer the best pitcher on the market... market-setting money just one year earlier, they would have (maybe, dream with me) Max Scherzer instead. Up until those two points in their career, in Which Price signed with Boston and Scherzer signed with Washington, both really good and you could have an argument over which one was better. But since then Scherzer actually got better and has pitched twice as many innings as Price. That's kind of crazy to think about, up until that point in their careers you could make an argument that Price was better. Devers could easily be MVP caliber for the next 10 years, or just a few years and fall off a cliff. But that's kind of the reality of every good player, what they do in their 30's defines their career. It can be the difference between Nomar or Jeter.
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It's a waste in hindsight, and this highlights the payoff vs. risk of making such moves if you consider this. If the Sox decided to open up their wallets and offer the best pitcher on the market... market setting money just one year earlier, they would have (maybe, dream with me) Max Scherzer instead. Up until those two points in their career, Scherzer and Price were both really good and you could have an argument over which one was better. But since then Scherzer actually got better and has pitched twice as many innings as Price. Devers could easily be MVP caliber for the next 10 years, or just a few years and fall off a cliff. But that's kind of the reality of every good player, what they do in their 30's defines their career. It can be the difference between Nomar or Jeter.
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That might still put you over the cap and missing 3 starting pitchers….assuming Sale is healthy that’s 3 more needed. Judge ain’t happening.
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Rodon has an opt out he’s almost certain to exercise. He’s going to be a free agent.
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I think it's very fair to speculate that the pandemic changed a lot. There was so much uncertainty in the world, and $365 million dollars looks like whole lotta money when everything else is a s*** show. I think Mookie had every intention of going to free agency, if the Sox had held onto him for the season and he was here when the pandemic hit maybe he ended up signing here for less, maybe not, we will never know.
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I can’t believe we’re still arguing Mookie Betts. This has been talked about, argued, debates, complained about over and over and over again.
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Their approach? To stay under? They usually go over the luxury tax, they reset every 2-3 years because who wouldn’t with the penalties that grow when you stay over? Sox outspend , on average, almost every other team in baseball. So, I’m not really sure how spending more money than mostly everyone makes them *******s…..unless…..you want us to be Miami???
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No, you said it fine. I did a s*** job of comprehending your point. That's about right on point.
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I do apologize for not playing along, but adding an all star short stop, I was mixing up Trea Turner with Tray Mancini, along with a young ACE makes the team pretty good with bullpen help. Regardless, it's never worth tanking for #1 pick. This is baseball, not football or the NBA. The draft lottery should even further desensitize tanking.
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It's all about outcomes. If the Sox "win the offseason" but perform bad how will that be perceived? We've been here before, remember the monster offseason Boston had after the 2010 season in which they went out and got Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and they were supposed to have a super team? They won that offseason but went on an epic collapse. Suppose Bloom has a mediocre offseason, with maybe a big move and a bunch of under-the-radar moves that pan out and this team wins 92 games next and wins it all. Then who cares if he had a bad offseason? I get what your saying, for the sake of not arguing semantics, the Red Sox have some serious roster construction to do. I'm just saying that in the end, he will be judged by the results of the 2023 season...and that's fair.
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Folks, Story is not moving back to SS, I will eat my socks if this happens. It’s been discussed, analyzed, and agreed upon that 2nd is his home. Also, the SS market is a lot deeper than the outfield market this off-season. And Kike is GG in CF. But moving him back to 2nd means you need TWO outfielders in a weak market including a CFer
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I call up Florida and offer a non top 5 prospect for Edward Cabrera, because we’re taking back Garcias contract. Sign Mancini and have 7 million left over for the bullpen.