Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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No he was good up until his worst injury, he started off the season slow then got hot then hot inured. Even the best of the best have hot and cold streaks. I bet if we broke down the career of David Ortiz by months we’d see plenty of bad months. The only sample size we have were story has bad AND not injured is his first month. Have we not seen people start off slow, aside from that a few weeks here and there is inconsequential and proves nothing other than small sample sizes can tell us whatever we’d like them too.
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You can't compare injuries. Injuries affect everyone differently. Where are they injured? how are they injured? how severe is it? Everyone knows a wrist injury for a hitter is going to zap their production more than almost anything else.
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Story is a lifetime .739 hitter Away, despite 2022 suppressing those numbers that still bests SUzukis .713. So if we take away Coors field we have a very large sample size of Story still being a better hitter. Baring more injuries Story will be better. It's perfectly fine to argue you have no faith in Story staying healthy. But it's obvious to me that was mostly the reason in his drop in performance and outside of injury he's a better player than Suzuki.
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Away from Wrigley Suzuki is only a .713 hitter. Story was much better than that Away from Coors before his injury-plagued 2022 campaign.
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The Coors field making him a great offensive player thing has been debunked. Most players are better at home, he was no worse than Bogey away from Coors.....is Bogey not a good offensive player and not as good as Suzuki? should we not be resigning him?
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So is one season of underperformance that seems to mostly be tied into injury. The larger un-injured sample size equals an offensive player much better than Suzuki.
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You said it can't be one thing, I gave you more than one reason. If you take out the penalties, and a top prospect dying, we have had either a hit or current top prospects drafted. You go beyond that and we are talking about 19-18-year-olds.
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So then you will agree, if he's healthy he's a much better offensive player.
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Ok, they Project Story to have about 3 WAR, but if he hits for his career averages he will easily eclipse that. The lowest WAR he ever had in a season he stayed healthy was 2.6 and he was 24 in a sophomore slump, very easy to believe if he puts up 500 plate appearances he will put up a War of 4+. I would like to see how those projections are made and how much of them are weighing an injury-plagued season. Why should I believe he can only put up .4 more WAR if he's playing significantly more games? Those projections heavily weigh last season. An injury-plagued season were he put up a career-worse .738 OPS and they project him to put up one more point at .739 but with 649 plate appearances. There's some serious flaw there.
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We know he had a wrist injury mid July, at that point after his slow start for two months he put up a .516 SLG% we all know how wrist injuries can sideline an offensive player. Story is a premium offensive player, and if the wrist is fine and he stays healthy he's going to be an above .800 OPS guy. I'd bet on it if he puts up over 500 PAs
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Well lets go the year after Bello You have W. Gonzelez and Paulino who are our 13th and 9th-ranked prospects both still just 20 years old. And the year before Bello you had your best talent die. They gave Flores 3.1 million dollars in 2017, and 5 years since then have NOT given someone that much money. The year before that was the year they couldn't sign anyone, and the year before most of their signings were voided. The year before that we had Moncada and he gave us Sale, and the year before that takes us to Devers. If you want to go in the other direction we are talking about 16-19 year olds so. Has the international drafting really been bad? no, it has not.
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Last year we had the CBA in disarray, the year before was a Covid year. We have not had a normal offseason in over two years.
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Assuming massive regression from Story 2022 is a relevant sample size, outside of that STory is clearly the better offensive player. If Storys regression is injury, and it appears so, then given a clean bill of health I think it's good bet Story is a better offensive player in 2023......given a clean bill of health that is. That is never a certainty.
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If given a full bill of health, who do you think is the better overall player, and who will put up a better WAR in 2023?
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He had an .848 OPS at Fenway, but he stunk away from home, when he played in Colorado he also had to play outside Coloroda during "away" games.
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The penalties hurt, and not too long after the stud we signed tragically passed away. Daniel Flores.
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Yeah but come on, one month when it's cold and on a new team? are we suggesting he's that bad and actually got better when he was hurt? We have every reason, outside of more injuries that Story is not going to bounce back and be a great player.
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Most hitters perform better at home, Coor or not. Before the signing Story and Bogaerts had identical Away OPS. Actually Story had a great OPS at Fenway, his decline in offensive production was away from Fenway and was statistically much worse than it was away from COORS. Heavily suggesting his offensive slump was all about the injury he suffered in 2022. Also, despite all that he put up a 1.9 OWar vs. 2.3 for Suzuki. In a down year, with less at bats, Story was marginally worse on Offensive. The only caveat here, is that in his sophomore season Suzuki progresses and the bat gets much better. But I'd bank on both of them having a better offensive season but still....Give me the bounce back from Story with better defense at a premium position.
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Up until recently the Sox seemed to do pretty good drafting in the back of the draft, of course, up until about a decade ago there were completely different rules and you didn't have financial restrictions in the draft either. Also, teams like LA have done a good job of drafting as well. Drafting is hard, if you get 2 productive MLBers in a draft you did a decent job. Sox have had some duds.
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Is it really fair to say Suzuki is a better offensive player? His .770 to .740 OPS is better but not significantly better and it was during a down year for Story. I expect Story to bounce back.
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Devers will get less than Judge, and is 4 years younger. This is really a no-brainer.
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This is a great point, drafting has not been great for over a decade. There seems to be promise from the last couple of classes, and Casas could be good, but a handful of players in a decade is not a good look. Drafting hurts your team 4-8 years in the future, the bad drafting (as of right now) is on DD and Ben C. Although, GMs rotate in and out on this team seemingly, while a lot of personal mid level has had longer tenures here. It’s so tough to complain, ideally you’d want to advocate for a change. But for all we know they’re doing a better job now but need to wait 1-3 years to taste that fruit.
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Paul Toboni is the director of amateur scouting.
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No.
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After the first pick GMs have almost no influence or say in prospects. Let’s just keep this in mind.