Hugh2

If Bloom actually pulls off some kind of roster heist it will have to primarily be via the trade market. This team still really needs SS/SP and a bench bat that can cover Cf. If the shortstop (who doesn't even exist yet) or Story goes down and you move Kike in to play SS/2ND you have no Cfer, unless Duran is your guy. I suppose Arroyo can be that guy now, but I'm not sure if I"m comfortable with him during a potentially long stint and that still leaves Duran or in CF or if Kike goes down, or Verdugo. The pitching is more tricky because if healthy we technically have 6 starters going into camp (Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck) but you still like to see another name on that list because you know what they say about pitching. Adding a name to that list with a relatively good bill of health should actually make for a decent rotation. Perhaps it's a little bit easier to take an optimistic outlook on the starting pitching with some young arms in there and a better bullpen to help them along the way. But the position side of the ball is clearly not set. The odd thing is the Sox traded away from the DEPTH of the very thing they need. A shortstop. Now I don't think anyone here seriously expected Hoy or Downs to be the starting shortstop on this team, but I'd figure those are the guys you call up who can field the position for a week or two. Depth like that matters and right now they don't even have that up the middle. Unless of course, the Sox are fine with Arroyo there periodically and figure both Kike/Story can back up as an emergency. That still leaves them short a Centerfielder. Ironically I think the Sox have a prospect in their system who even if he performs closer to his floor would be the perfect elite defense plus speed Cfer/SS type, but if giving Rafaella another year in the minors helps his bat develop then I say you forget about the kid until 2024, if he plays his way up this summer then great.

I think it's obvious at this point that they wanted to bring Bogaerts back.

I think it’s probable we sign one. Possible we sign two, but certainly not if we trade for a SS/SP

The 3 year plan becomes a 5 year plan, and if that team stinks it will be a 10 year plan. This is Blooms year, and I have to say at the very least I’m interested to see how this blows up in his face yet I’m leaving the door open to be surprised in 2023. This year will make it break Bloom.

This also reeks of the David Price situation. I was the only person in the world who thought the Sox were going to make a serious run at him in 2015/2016 and was criticized for it, people used the Jon Lester situation as precedent and my argument was with these Sox the past is not a predictor of the future. Maybe Devers isn't the guy, but if you think the Sox won't eventually pivot and give out a top dollar contract at some point then you're living in the now, clouded by your emotions. I think what Warren Buffett used to say about investing "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy". The fact that NO ONE THINKS this can happen right now is what leads me to predict it will. Lets see if I eat crow.

Think of it this way, why would you have traded for Devers this off-season and give away your version of Marcelo Mayer when you could have just signed Bogaerts or Correa? They just cost money, and you’re trading for a guy who you’re about to pay a boatload of money too. There’s a reason Betts got you Downs. If he had multiple years of control you probably would have got 2-3 Jeter Downs, and in a perfect world all three of them are not busting.

In the end we are just repackaging the concept of trading him to the highest bidder. Which is not a new concept and I’m sure the Sox will do regardless. Teams know what they’re trading for, you can’t eliminate the fact that he ONLY has 1 year of team control. You’re on going to give up so much talent for one year of a guy. If you want a higher return, then we should have traded him this past deadline or even last year.

Those penalties have compounding effects. It will be interesting to see what the Mets system looks like in a few years. I’m sure Mets fans could care less if they buy a couple WS here. But they could get caught with their pants down if the new CBA puts in harsher penalties or even a hard cap and they’re sitting way over with no farm system in 4-5 years from now. They pretty much have to win a World Series or it’s going to not be worth it. For all the talk about DD ruining our farm (a lot of those guys have busted anyways) at least we have something to show for it. That makes it all worth it.

Should the Sox resign Devers at any cost? Should they offer 350/10? And walk away if he wants more? At this point, you either pay Devers price, or you're banking he gets less on the open market. That strategy failed miserably this year. Teams that missed out big this offseason, and have money, will be competing for Devers next year. SF/LA and I'm sure others will push Devers contract much higher than we think.

Will the Mets lose out in revenue sharing rebates however? That can knock of a few hundred thousand of revenue. Steve Cohen doesn’t care, this is a hobby for him

Yeah, Mets aren't resetting next year. I'm losing that bet.

It would be pretty funny if we traded Sale back to CWX for Moncada and Yoan finally hits his stride at 28. Unlikely

If the Sox are healthy and compete next year, is it worth one year of Devers plus a comp pick rather than trading him?

I thought they issued some statement on policy that situations will be handled under the law in which the contract was signed. Song isn't getting out of his military service.

Song won’t be able to play, he will still be on the military list. His waiver is likely going to be denied with current legislation. Ward makes no sense, why not protect him and never even trade for Hoy?

Better than all three. Aside from Ward, the other two guys are whatever. Song probably retires.

Hosmer had a no trade clause. If no one good wanted him why would he agree to be traded just anywhere? Better to be DFAd and become a free agent. It’s whatever, Hosmer wasn’t moving the needle.

I don't think they trade him, they work out an extension or continue to negotiate but he is your 2023 3B

IDK, Bloom seems to have a better track record at drafting than he does trading. I'd rather go for it, try to work out and extension with Devers along the way. But I want him starting 3B in 2023 no matter what.

If you're locking guys up early and buying out their arb years and getting their free agency year into their early/mid 30's you're coming out on top. If they did Bogey (longer) Betts, Benintendi and JBJ years ago they'd be 3/4 right now. I'm imagining them locking up their 2018 core as early as 2015/2016. In that scenario, the amount of money you save on Betts/Bogaerts pays for JBJ 5 times over. You probably come out even and a little ahead on Benintendi. So I'd rather pay a little bit more and have these contracts without any opt-outs. But, on the other hand, I'd take a deal with an opt-out in-out over no deal with Devers. At this point, that may be the only way to get Devers to sign an extension.

While this is generally true, I'm sure there's some instances where a team benefits from having a player for a few extra years in his prime but then someone else pays for his 30's.

I’m not saying it does whole heartedly but once you start buying those years up you have to take into account the potential value the player is leaving on the table.

Albies is a good comp, maybe I’m overshooting it a bit. But on the other hand, I’m also talking about buying out more free agent years. Otherwise you’re left with another situation where a guy like Bogaerts walks when he’s 30.

No but take a time machine back to 2016. JBJ looked like a perennial GG centerfielder who would give you over .800 ops and he hit 26 bombs that year too. That was the player he looked like he was growing into. What does that guy get on the market?

Absolutely. But if you’re going that route it can’t just be one guy. That’s why I use JBJ as an example. Look at the talent Atlanta locked up.