Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Free agents, I would target: Correa/Brantley/Senga/Taillon/Jensen Line up VS RHP/LHP Brantley/Kike Correa/Correa Devers/Devers Casas/Story Hosmer/Casas Story/Verdugo Verdugo/Refsynder Kike/Dalbec McGuire/Wong Rotation: Sale. Senga. Taillon. Bello. Whitlock. Pivetta Bullpen: Paxton/Joley/Kelly/Barnes/Schreiber/Houck/Jensen. The above should keep you at around 88 million and allow you to reset the cap and net two picks. I suspect a pitcher or two isn't coming out of camp for one reason or another so I have Arroyo penciled in on the bench for the 26th man.
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Without a doubt Jose Abreu is going to steal two times the amount of bases in 2023 as he did in 2022.
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Given his age and his sharp decline on defense last year, one has to view him as a DH going forward. But he can still rake so that’s going to work out great for him. But given the way the roster is currently constructed I’d rather spend my beans on a position player who can hit
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Better not be the case is in, we failed to sign our top target? or better not be the case in....Why would Abreu be our #1 target?
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They'd have to be starting games to get there....which is why I said if those guys are getting more innings we are in trouble.
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This is my sentiment, all those signs either aren't that bad, too early to Judge (Story) or it's too early to tell. Paxton could easily make his contract worth it by having a decent 2023, doesn't even have to be great just good. Diekman sucked but we actually got something for him. Richards wasn't a great signing, but if ONLY he had signed Perez one year later.
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This is what I was thinking as I posted this. I could see one of those guys growing into a bullpen role, but in that scenario, I wouldn't envision them getting more innings. About the same or a little less. I don't think they're 8th 9th inning guys. I think they COULD be good 7th/6th inning arms.
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If we see more IP from Crawford or Winc it would be because one of them takes an unexpected leap forward or this team is in big trouble. But Whitlock, Houck, and Bello all have the chance to add more value in 2023 and if they can make a few good moves the pitching should be much better. Unfortunately, that shouldn't be too hard to do after 2022.
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It’s also a double whammy when the guys you did spend money on get hurt or underperform. It’s perfectly conceivable that a clean bill of health, some growth from the farm (Bello/Casas) and some good moves this off-season could quickly change things around. But one could be forgiven for being skeptical given the last few seasons.
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Exactly
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Yorke might still be on some peoples radar and top 100s. If he bounces back he’s easily a top 100 guy a lot of scouts still really believe in his bat
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So his “away from Coors field” OPS dropped 100 points, so obviously there’s a lot more than leaving Coors field going on here…..I dunno maybe he got off to a slow start and got injured? To me it’s blatantly obviously Story had a down year plagued by no offseason and injury. I don’t buy any other narrative. My only REAL concern is him not being past his injuries, continually being hurt, and being just as bad as last year. That’s a legit concern, and I see a decent chance of just that happening. Aside from the above, I expect Story to be much better in 2023….and better than Suzuki.
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No he was good up until his worst injury, he started off the season slow then got hot then hot inured. Even the best of the best have hot and cold streaks. I bet if we broke down the career of David Ortiz by months we’d see plenty of bad months. The only sample size we have were story has bad AND not injured is his first month. Have we not seen people start off slow, aside from that a few weeks here and there is inconsequential and proves nothing other than small sample sizes can tell us whatever we’d like them too.
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You can't compare injuries. Injuries affect everyone differently. Where are they injured? how are they injured? how severe is it? Everyone knows a wrist injury for a hitter is going to zap their production more than almost anything else.
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Story is a lifetime .739 hitter Away, despite 2022 suppressing those numbers that still bests SUzukis .713. So if we take away Coors field we have a very large sample size of Story still being a better hitter. Baring more injuries Story will be better. It's perfectly fine to argue you have no faith in Story staying healthy. But it's obvious to me that was mostly the reason in his drop in performance and outside of injury he's a better player than Suzuki.
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Away from Wrigley Suzuki is only a .713 hitter. Story was much better than that Away from Coors before his injury-plagued 2022 campaign.
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The Coors field making him a great offensive player thing has been debunked. Most players are better at home, he was no worse than Bogey away from Coors.....is Bogey not a good offensive player and not as good as Suzuki? should we not be resigning him?
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So is one season of underperformance that seems to mostly be tied into injury. The larger un-injured sample size equals an offensive player much better than Suzuki.
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You said it can't be one thing, I gave you more than one reason. If you take out the penalties, and a top prospect dying, we have had either a hit or current top prospects drafted. You go beyond that and we are talking about 19-18-year-olds.
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So then you will agree, if he's healthy he's a much better offensive player.
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Ok, they Project Story to have about 3 WAR, but if he hits for his career averages he will easily eclipse that. The lowest WAR he ever had in a season he stayed healthy was 2.6 and he was 24 in a sophomore slump, very easy to believe if he puts up 500 plate appearances he will put up a War of 4+. I would like to see how those projections are made and how much of them are weighing an injury-plagued season. Why should I believe he can only put up .4 more WAR if he's playing significantly more games? Those projections heavily weigh last season. An injury-plagued season were he put up a career-worse .738 OPS and they project him to put up one more point at .739 but with 649 plate appearances. There's some serious flaw there.
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We know he had a wrist injury mid July, at that point after his slow start for two months he put up a .516 SLG% we all know how wrist injuries can sideline an offensive player. Story is a premium offensive player, and if the wrist is fine and he stays healthy he's going to be an above .800 OPS guy. I'd bet on it if he puts up over 500 PAs
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Well lets go the year after Bello You have W. Gonzelez and Paulino who are our 13th and 9th-ranked prospects both still just 20 years old. And the year before Bello you had your best talent die. They gave Flores 3.1 million dollars in 2017, and 5 years since then have NOT given someone that much money. The year before that was the year they couldn't sign anyone, and the year before most of their signings were voided. The year before that we had Moncada and he gave us Sale, and the year before that takes us to Devers. If you want to go in the other direction we are talking about 16-19 year olds so. Has the international drafting really been bad? no, it has not.
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Last year we had the CBA in disarray, the year before was a Covid year. We have not had a normal offseason in over two years.
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Assuming massive regression from Story 2022 is a relevant sample size, outside of that STory is clearly the better offensive player. If Storys regression is injury, and it appears so, then given a clean bill of health I think it's good bet Story is a better offensive player in 2023......given a clean bill of health that is. That is never a certainty.