Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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THIS outlines the importance of having a spring training, not having one really messed him up. Blake SNell has looked horrible too, same deal.
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The problem is, if pitchers know you can not hit it hard, they're going to challenge you. Put the ball in play, you can't hurt me. There just aren't too many players that fit Meidroth's profile that are successful everyday players. I think he's a big leaguer, I think he might evern add value to this team, I just don't think he's going to be an impactful player.
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If he finishes the season healthy, there will be a 4 year deal waiting for him somewhere if he wants it.
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One minor IL stint means nothing compared to his seemingly enitre career of health. Especially if he finishes the season and has clean medicals. No one will care that he missed a month back in April if he finshes this season fine.
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Well I didn't clarify this so it's my bad but I meant pitchers who are healthy and don't have any abnormal situations or concerns. There's usually something going on when a guy gets a 1-2 year deal.....or they're just old as FFFF
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I should say 2, that would be more accurate. Still, with pitchers getting 7-8 WAR a year what does that add up to if a team is willing to pay him for 4 years? A lot more than $32 million I'd say, which is overall my point. Pivetta most likely would not sign a $32 million extension right now. I don't believe he would do that.
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Don't you think the situations surrounding those pitchers was extremly abnormal? SNell was asking for $250 million plus but ended up taking a high AAV contract, Wacha had serious health concerns at the time, same with Kershaw, Meada is also in his mid 30's and on year removed from an injury. Those might be better quality pitchers or many of them at least, but their circumstances are grossly different. Hench, why someone like pivetta may opt for the years.....because this may be the only chance he can to do so.
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How many of those 9 would you compare to Nick Pivetta? I want names damnit!!!!!!!!
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If I was a betting man, and we wanted to wager around here, then baring any injury I'd very comfortable say Nick is going to get at least 4/58 next offseason. He's not not going to free agency just because we want him signed, and "security" isn't going to suddenly become a thing now that he's only a few months away from free agency after being under team control for almost a decade. Come on peoples
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Giolito was coming off a season where he had one of the worse stretches of a starting pitcher EVER. How is this even close to being a comparable???
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No, but we know healthy starting pitchers in there early 30's typically get more than 2 years, there's certain free agency universal truths we can count on. And WAR has been a very good predictor of free agency pay days with very few caveats (guys taking less AAV for more years and vis versa). Take almost ANY pitcher who has signed a multi year deal and divide their AAV by their average WAR and you're typiucally getting around $7-8 per WAR. Pivetta is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher. Depending on length of contract, he's getting around $16 million a year give or take. With guys getting 10 years now, thinking he could get 4 is beyond absurdly reasonable. 2 years is an insult. Reality is, if you don't want to give Pivetta at least $50 million plus just say you don't want to resign him, which is fine.....I don't. I'd rather look for ways to UPGRADE this rotation.
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When a guy makes it to this point, the odds of him signing a team friendly extension is at an all time low. Asking a guy to take a pay cut in either dollars or years to get that "security" is something you do when a guy has years of team control left. There's incentive for both players. Honestly, I'd rather just offer Pivetta a QO
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He's effectively a 2 WAR player, he's been durable and looks like he's at his best right now, he's going to get paid about $15 a year. players have a huge affinity towards long term deals, and why wouldn't they, wouldn't you rather know where you and your family are going to live over the next 4-5 years instead of the next 2? Nick Pivetta has earned much more than 2 years, there's zero reason why he should take a two year deal, and given his history of health on a team that struggles with health I would find it insulting if I was him.
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Anything could of happened over the last 6 years. This is his walk season, he's waited this long to go to FA, I don't think you go this long and then when you're rounding third and heading towards a pay day you take a big paycut to get security. If you're offering him 1/2 of what he may get in free agency it's just an insult on a smaller scale. It's literally Jon Lester on a smaller scale, Sox offered him half of what he got, $30 million might be half or close to half of what Pivetta could get in FA.
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Nick is entering free agency for the first time where he will be entering his age 32 season. This might be the only chance he ever really has to get a payday, I'm not saying it can't be done, and he certainly won't command big money......but I can see someone giving him $14-16 million a year for 4 years doubling that contract size. If he really likes it here, maybe you can work out a 3 year deal with some vesting options for a 4th and 5th year.
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6/05 Braves @ SOX 1:35PM ET
Hugh2 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Hey we won a game. -
And push for the rest of the season. Not impossible
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With their new alliance with Red Sox Payroll, I have a high degree of confidence in their numbers. It's kind of amazing that no one can seemingly get it right.
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Luis Perales has been my prospect binky for about a year now.
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$224,730,000.00 about $12.3 million under the tax line.
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Are we talking about Daniel Flores here? He passed away, they've been pretty spot on with their International Binkies......we will never know but certainly the rest of that list is worthy of too much hype.
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I think there are times they jump too quickly, but I think theres a lot of times they correctly jump on or off a guy correctly before almost anyone else does. It helps that they only focus on one system unlike everyone else who have to focus on....well everyone else.
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I may have misinterpreted the guys over at sox prosepcts but I got the feeling they were saying that there's a clear second tier between Perales/Fitts/Wikelman in the 6-8 range. So I don't think he's dropping but who knows maybe Zanetello is replacing him in that tier, but I don't think so. WHen they really like guys they don't get sour on them that quickly, his numbers aren't great but I think it's another month or two of underperformance before he starts dropping. We will see by the end of the week.
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You're probably right, it all comes down to how much they believe in his bat. Which if they do, I can see the argument for taking him over Guerrero/Anderson. One being a pure relief profile and the other far away who hasn't shown anything really at the pro level yet. I know Lugo has been playing a lot of LF, but he wasn't horrible at SS, just not great. Typically guys with his profile move to 3B/2B first and Soxprospects had him pegged as a guy who could be an average defender at 3B, if the bat returns I wonder if they would ever consider him playing multiple positions in a utility role to possibly increase his value. If you believe in the bat I just don't see a slam dunk argument for any guy ahead of him in the 25-30 range other than Pendrod, who almost certainly will be moving higher.
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My biggest guess for biggest surprise, might be Lugo moving back up more than anyone thinks. Don't get me wrong if I'm a guessing man I'd be hedgin my bets at him being around 25 (little higher than yours) but if they truly believe in the bat, and if the power increase is real then maybe they truly believe in his elevated ceiling. Maybe he's the surprise wildcard.